End of the Bull Market?

[GeoffF100]

Here is an interesting article linked by Monevator:

https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/03 ... rket.html/

Nonetheless, nobody knows what will happen, of course.

[Kipling]

A 'Shotgun and Beans' type of person?
Never come across that turn of phrase before. Interesting article, thanks for posting it

K.

[dspp]

Its a minor variant of the fairly standard "invest/stock up on bombs bullets & beans" saying. If you haven't heard it before I guess you've not had that much exposure to the mostly US-based survivalist / doomer types. Have a scratch around t'net and you'll find some eye-opening stuff.

Stuck clocks are occasionally correct. Whether they are now is something I do not know.

regards, dspp

[andyalan10]

Another interesting perspective on the size, and therefore by implication the vulnerability, of the bull market was covered by Merryn Somerset Web in FT Money last week.

If you measure the size of the bull market not by its rise from the previous bottom, but by how much it has exceeded the previous top then you are comparing a peak of about 7800 in February 2018, compared with 7000 in 1999. So a compound growth rate of about 0.5% p.a. from the previous top, hardly feels like a major market top to me.

But as I am writing this sitting on a battered sofa in a modest house in Surrey and not from the library of my rambling mansion nestled in its own extensive grounds please feel free to take what i think with a pinch of salt.

Andy

[bulltraderpt]

I suppose ultimately it depends on your time frame, your risk tolerance, what you want out of the stock market, (not as obvious as it might seem), and a whole host of other variables which pertain to you personally.

I found the initial article quite illuminating, obviously things are different now, bigger debt in western economies, QE, China rising, political tensions, etc etc.

As always it appears we live in interesting times.

Trade and invest according to your aims and rules and, one hopes, you'll out perform the markets over longer time frames if that is your game.

Cheers.

[schober]

1) He doesnt tellus what he means by "bear market" (was the downtrend in 2015 a bear market?). The best definition I've seen is when >50% of stocks show a decline after a recent market top - does any one know of a source of such data?

2) He doesn't consider the possibility of a correction in time (rather than price) where stocks endlessly churn sideways - a possibility alluded to here
viewtopic.php?f=8&t=10929

3) The uptrend from 2016 will still be intact all the way down to 6450 (though it won't feel like it!)
https://tinyurl.com/y7sevoqy

[GeoffF100]

1) He doesnt tellus what he means by "bear market" (was the downtrend in 2015 a bear market?).

The original article defined a bear market to be drop of more than 20%, and it said that the downtrend of 2015 ended the bull market from the 2008 crash. The claim was that we are therefore at the beginning of new bull market. Believe that if you wish.