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S&P 500 at 3000
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hiriskpaul
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S&P 500 at 3000
The S&P 500 hit 3000 today, possibly only in after hours trading. It does not seem that long ago to me that it broke through 2000, but I just looked it up and it was in August 2014. Even so, the S&P has been motoring along for a very long time without a substantial fall, although (from memory) there have been a few quickly reversed 10%ish corrections along the way. How long before the next 40%+ fall I wonder? Impossible to know, but feel free to wildly speculate!
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Lootman
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Re: S&P 500 at 3000
hiriskpaul wrote:The S&P 500 hit 3000 today, possibly only in after hours trading. It does not seem that long ago to me that it broke through 2000, but I just looked it up and it was in August 2014. Even so, the S&P has been motoring along for a very long time without a substantial fall, although (from memory) there have been a few quickly reversed 10%ish corrections along the way. How long before the next 40%+ fall I wonder? Impossible to know, but feel free to wildly speculate!
As a point of reference, the intra-day low at the nadir of the sub-prime crisis was 666, perhaps ominously.
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tikunetih
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Re: S&P 500 at 3000
hiriskpaul wrote: Even so, the S&P has been motoring along for a very long time without a substantial fall, although (from memory) there have been a few quickly reversed 10%ish corrections along the way. How long before the next 40%+ fall I wonder? Impossible to know, but feel free to wildly speculate!
The May-Oct '11 pullback was ~21.5%, and the Sep-Dec '18 pullback was ~20%. [SPX]
Lots of investors will have been shaken out of their positions during these significant downdrafts only to see the world not end, the market recover rapidly and push on to new highs.
Recency bias (dotcom bust & GFC) will have elevated expectations regarding the frequency of 40+% drawdowns materially above what longer term history suggests is likely. No guarantees, and bad stuff can always happen, so we diversify across asset classes to sleep more soundly and live to fight another day.
My "total guess" is that we do not see another SPX 40%+ pullback for a long time, but I don't invest on that basis.
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