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Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
Aminatidi
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Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188214

Postby Aminatidi » December 20th, 2018, 7:55 am

Situation now:

100% debt free pension contributions maxed out and early 40's and full time employment with a steady good income so money keeps coming in.

£45K in account 1 split

* Capital Gearing £5.5k
* Fundsmith £13k
* iShares Physical Gold £2k
* Lindsell Train Global Equity £18k
* Personal Assets £5.5k

£22K in another account split

* Capital Gearing £4k
* Fundsmith £4k
* Vanguard FTSE All World £4k
* Lindsell Train Global Equity £4k
* Personal Assets £4k
* Cash Balance £2k

Plus £140k in cash scattered across savings and NS&I.

The paralysis by analysis is what the hell to do with the cash

I keep wavering between:

* Do nothing, sit on it, Brexit, world economy blah blah
* Stick another chunk in Personal Assets and Capital Gearing as it's about at safe a bet as I think I could get outside of cash if I wanted a good chance of a return
* Drip into a low cost tracker @ some amount per day/week/month and "simply" balance between that and cash
* Look at trying to generate an income but at my age I believe I should be focussing on growth over dividends
* Something else I've not considered

All the while a salary is coming in and there's an assumption that come April next year the ISA will be topped up.

Plus I'd be doing this outside of an ISA so would appreciate any advise on the best way to "flow" money between that and the ISA when the allowance is available.

I'd describe my outlook as cautious in so much as the recent volatility showed me I don't like feeling like I'm on a roller coaster so I don't think I'll be sticking the lot in Scottish Mortgage Trust any time soon.

TUK020
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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188229

Postby TUK020 » December 20th, 2018, 9:15 am

Hi Aminatidi,
2 things you don't mention are property and marital status.

Assuming you already own your own home, do you know where you want to retire to? thought of buying a holiday home there?
Are you single? If married, maxing out your spouse's pension + ISA might be the best avenue.

tuk020

Aminatidi
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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188263

Postby Aminatidi » December 20th, 2018, 10:44 am

TUK020 wrote:Hi Aminatidi,
2 things you don't mention are property and marital status.

Assuming you already own your own home, do you know where you want to retire to? thought of buying a holiday home there?
Are you single? If married, maxing out your spouse's pension + ISA might be the best avenue.

tuk020


Single, renting (may change at some point). Not thought of where to retire to as I have some time ahead :)

Property doesn't interest me as you can't sell a kitchen if you need some cash a bit quick plus I know nothing about it as an investment so that option is something I've already discounted.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188281

Postby tjh290633 » December 20th, 2018, 11:30 am

Aminatidi wrote:All the while a salary is coming in and there's an assumption that come April next year the ISA will be topped up.

Plus I'd be doing this outside of an ISA so would appreciate any advise on the best way to "flow" money between that and the ISA when the allowance is available.

I'd describe my outlook as cautious in so much as the recent volatility showed me I don't like feeling like I'm on a roller coaster so I don't think I'll be sticking the lot in Scottish Mortgage Trust any time soon.

The simple way is to use one of your ISA provider's normal share accounts, from where it should be simple to move from one to the other.

It's your choice which medium you use. Personally, market volatility does not worry me. If I can buy income at a reasonable rate from somewhere that is likely to increase at or above inflation, then I will invest.

TJH

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188435

Postby Aminatidi » December 20th, 2018, 6:14 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Aminatidi wrote:All the while a salary is coming in and there's an assumption that come April next year the ISA will be topped up.

Plus I'd be doing this outside of an ISA so would appreciate any advise on the best way to "flow" money between that and the ISA when the allowance is available.

I'd describe my outlook as cautious in so much as the recent volatility showed me I don't like feeling like I'm on a roller coaster so I don't think I'll be sticking the lot in Scottish Mortgage Trust any time soon.

The simple way is to use one of your ISA provider's normal share accounts, from where it should be simple to move from one to the other.

It's your choice which medium you use. Personally, market volatility does not worry me. If I can buy income at a reasonable rate from somewhere that is likely to increase at or above inflation, then I will invest.

TJH


I'm considering moving everything into HL as with IT/ETFs and the funds I have they're actually pretty reasonably priced overall and are a one-stop-shop.

That leaves the approach which is where I'm wrestling with myself mostly :roll:

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188437

Postby tjh290633 » December 20th, 2018, 6:18 pm

Aminatidi wrote:I'm considering moving everything into HL as with IT/ETFs and the funds I have they're actually pretty reasonably priced overall and are a one-stop-shop.

That leaves the approach which is where I'm wrestling with myself mostly :roll:

I consider HL to be extortionate. Who are your accounts with at present?

TJH

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188447

Postby Aminatidi » December 20th, 2018, 6:27 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
Aminatidi wrote:I'm considering moving everything into HL as with IT/ETFs and the funds I have they're actually pretty reasonably priced overall and are a one-stop-shop.

That leaves the approach which is where I'm wrestling with myself mostly :roll:

I consider HL to be extortionate. Who are your accounts with at present?

TJH


Mix of II and Cavendish (Fidelity platform)

II don't charge a percentage but charge on every deal including funds.

Cavendish charge 0.25% on everything but don't have anything like as much choice as HL.

IWEB don't offer Lindsell Train funds sadly else they'd be a viable option.

So, with a £45 cap on IT/ETF holdings and Lindsell Train funds being luckily discounted by HL they do appear reasonably competitive when you factor in free fund dealing.

I'm likely to be nudging £100K soon so at some point it's how much I care about £100/year when things can swing £1K in a day just with the ebb and flow of volatility etc.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188453

Postby toofast2live » December 20th, 2018, 6:45 pm

If you hold shares, etfs and investment trusts HL are pretty damn cheap compared to the quality of service.

I hold funds in other platforms.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188723

Postby Muddywaters » December 21st, 2018, 6:26 pm

Stick the £140k in a world tracker and check it in 15-20 years

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188779

Postby Aminatidi » December 22nd, 2018, 8:32 am

Muddywaters wrote:Stick the £140k in a world tracker and check it in 15-20 years


I'd never do that in one fell swoop, even drip feeding at the moment seems to result in being 5% down the week after as happened with a recent contribution to VWRL.

Appreciate that's also a buying opportunity but part of this is trying to work out where the hell to position myself given markets seem effed at the moment and 2019 looks "interesting".

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188804

Postby kempiejon » December 22nd, 2018, 11:33 am

Aminatidi, what do you the money to aloow you to do, are you investing for early retirement/financial independence if so by what age? You say you've maxed out your pension contributions, just to double check you've committed the maximum amount of your relevant earnings for this and previous tax tears - I'd do this approaching 55 but at your age remember it puts the cash out of reach for a long time.
You're renting so might you want to buy a property, if this could be within 5 years there's not much wrong with cash or cash like holdings. I use premium bonds for some of my cash as it's tax free. As you have noticed cash is less volatile than a world tracker but will ultimately erode.

If you're not comfortable in sticking it all into a non cash investment now then your option is to drip feed but with such a sum perhaps you'd be happier dripping over a long term not just 12 months, perhaps more like 3 years and quarterly rather than monthly but that'd leave you in cash for much longer and of course your opening was you have too much cash.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188810

Postby 0x3F » December 22nd, 2018, 12:23 pm

Aminatidi wrote:The paralysis by analysis is what the hell to do with the cash

I keep wavering between:

* Do nothing, sit on it, Brexit, world economy blah blah
* Stick another chunk in Personal Assets and Capital Gearing as it's about at safe a bet as I think I could get outside of cash


I'm in a similar situation and documented on my actions on my website. My plan is to average in over a couple of years, but waiting for a bit of a dip first.

You could up the gold component. I don't see much point of such a low holding %, I'd either drop to 0 or up to 10% or so. Also bonds worth considering. I'd also drop the Fundsmith/Lindsel train weightings as see no reason to overweight - either by adding PNL/CGT or selling some. Adding more PNL/CGT would give more bond/gold exposure.

-0x3F

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188825

Postby Aminatidi » December 22nd, 2018, 1:29 pm

0x3F wrote:
Aminatidi wrote:The paralysis by analysis is what the hell to do with the cash

I keep wavering between:

* Do nothing, sit on it, Brexit, world economy blah blah
* Stick another chunk in Personal Assets and Capital Gearing as it's about at safe a bet as I think I could get outside of cash


I'm in a similar situation and documented on my actions on my website. My plan is to average in over a couple of years, but waiting for a bit of a dip first.

You could up the gold component. I don't see much point of such a low holding %, I'd either drop to 0 or up to 10% or so. Also bonds worth considering. I'd also drop the Fundsmith/Lindsel train weightings as see no reason to overweight - either by adding PNL/CGT or selling some. Adding more PNL/CGT would give more bond/gold exposure.

-0x3F


What is a dip if this isn't one? :)

The gold was actually just to park some cash sat in one ISA so I think overall it puts that single ISA on around 7% gold but you're correct it's ended up like that more by fluke than design.

My initial plan was to split 50/50 between PNL and CGT as they won't make me rich but they won't make me poor either.

What I have no firm plan on is when, how much, how often, and whether to introduce anything else into the mix.

Within the ISA's I'll be adding some allocation to direct equities (Fundsmith, Lindsell Train, VWRL) this is more around the sodding great chunk of cash doing nothing earning nothing that can't go in an ISA any time soon.

Currently reading "THE INVESTMENT TRUSTS HANDBOOK 2019" as linked on these forums.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188827

Postby 0x3F » December 22nd, 2018, 1:50 pm

What is a dip if this isn't one? :)


Good point. But I suspect we're just getting started :)

The gold was actually just to park some cash sat in one ISA so I think overall it puts that single ISA on around 7% gold

I see, so you're considering as distinct portfolios rather than whole. In that case 7% seems fine, ignore me.

My initial plan was to split 50/50 between PNL and CGT as they won't make me rich but they won't make me poor either.


Look at the 20 year performance of them compared to the FTSE. Plotting CGT v's FTSE (on advf n) shows it returned around 4x.

Anyway. Best of luck whatever you decide.

-0x3F.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188830

Postby Aminatidi » December 22nd, 2018, 2:06 pm

Thank you :) The return on those two is interesting, not get rich quick options but with dividends reinvested a picture perhaps says it all?

Image

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#188989

Postby runnygum » December 23rd, 2018, 6:10 pm

Aminatidi wrote:
Muddywaters wrote:Stick the £140k in a world tracker and check it in 15-20 years


I'd never do that in one fell swoop, even drip feeding at the moment seems to result in being 5% down the week after as happened with a recent contribution to VWRL.

Appreciate that's also a buying opportunity but part of this is trying to work out where the hell to position myself given markets seem effed at the moment and 2019 looks "interesting".


Hmm, in 60%+ of the time investing the whole lump sum is shown to be the best.
Its behavoural biases that make you think otherwise.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investing ... t-lump-sum

Im with Muddywaters on this :)

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#191171

Postby Aminatidi » January 5th, 2019, 8:52 am

Just remembered I posted this here whilst searching for threads on gold.

So far I have:

Put another £2K in iShares Physical Gold

Started a daily drip feed split equally between:

* LF Blue Whale Growth
* Buffettology
* Lindsell Train Global Equity
* Fundsmith

Which sits in a GIA because I can't add any cash to the existing ISA's.

Looking at consolidating down to a single provider which will likely be HL as I like the platform and I'm getting to the point where I'll have a decent sum under management and want one place to be able to go to look after it.

Between their cap on ETFs and their discount on some funds (Lindsell Train in particular) it's actually not that expensive plus I've found it really nice being able to queue up a buy/sell before 8am and get confirmation same day that it's been dealt.

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#191180

Postby Dod101 » January 5th, 2019, 9:34 am

I have just com across this thread but given the circumstances and age of the OP I think he is far too conservatively invested. He is investing as if he is a retired multi millionaire. Surely he is looking at the chance of getting a decent return on his investments? Those he appears to hold will keep pace with inflation (probably) but being a working single in mid 40s he should surely be prepared to take some risks. Lindsell Train funds of some sort are fine but Capital Gearing, Personal Assets and the like are far too conservative.

Dod

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#191187

Postby Aminatidi » January 5th, 2019, 9:57 am

Dod101 wrote:I have just com across this thread but given the circumstances and age of the OP I think he is far too conservatively invested. He is investing as if he is a retired multi millionaire. Surely he is looking at the chance of getting a decent return on his investments? Those he appears to hold will keep pace with inflation (probably) but being a working single in mid 40s he should surely be prepared to take some risks. Lindsell Train funds of some sort are fine but Capital Gearing, Personal Assets and the like are far too conservative.

Dod


It's a fair point and my ongoing plan is to move towards more equities via the four funds I mentioned above.

I think a single platform will help here as I still find myself thinking of each platform as a separate "pot" rather than being able to manage everything from one place.

As of now though I'm around 75% equities so I'm struggling with it being that conservative? :)

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Re: Paralysis by Analysis - Xmas Project

#191219

Postby Dod101 » January 5th, 2019, 11:54 am

Hi Aminatidi

Of the four funds you mention, at least three are very conservatively invested. I do not know about Blue Whale but must take a look as it is the second time I have seen it mentioned recently. Nothing wrong with them and it may be that in the present climate they might be best but I would throw in something like Scottish Mortgage at least and probably Monks as well as a good a good all rounder like F & C Investment Trust. Unless you are planning to retire in a couple of years, you have time on your side and with no dependents you can afford to the up the risk profile bit.

Dod


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