Investing in fags, vapes and hash

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

As they report next Tuesday, see https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/inves ... #category1 it might have been worth waiting until after then to set your stop-loss.

TJH

Hi TJH,

Yes I knew about the coming report. Perhaps it will be good news for IMB. But my stop loss triggered on 31st Oct so I'm already out of them completely. I'm sure IMB are fine as a HYP share but for long term growth prospects, I fear that any investment in nicotine is doomed. I posted this a while back citing evidence which would suggest that the nicotine itself is the carcinogen not the delivery system. Several countries/states are now banning vapes, smoking is getting less and less fashionable.

I would still hold IMB had I any faith in their exploits into medicinal cannabis but it's been too little too late for them, IMHO.

On the MJ front I heard an interesting 5 mins on R4 this morning about medicinal cannabis in the Netherlands, and people from the UK going to Holland to buy it for affected children, mostly for the treatment of epilepsy. But I can't find a link to the R4 chat online right.....

did manage to find this however, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0007zly, could be of interest.

For me with possibly 25-30 investment years ahead of me (touch wood!!), I think Hash not Fags is the growth area I should be considering, if any of.

Matt

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

A couple of recent hash stories:

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-ed ... ting-story

https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment- ... ting-story

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-49906476

[Walrus101]

As they report next Tuesday, see https://www.imperialbrandsplc.com/inves ... #category1 it might have been worth waiting until after then to set your stop-loss.

TJH

Hi TJH,

Yes I knew about the coming report. Perhaps it will be good news for IMB. But my stop loss triggered on 31st Oct so I'm already out of them completely. I'm sure IMB are fine as a HYP share but for long term growth prospects, I fear that any investment in nicotine is doomed. I posted this a while back citing evidence which would suggest that the nicotine itself is the carcinogen not the delivery system. Several countries/states are now banning vapes, smoking is getting less and less fashionable.

I would still hold IMB had I any faith in their exploits into medicinal cannabis but it's been too little too late for them, IMHO.

On the MJ front I heard an interesting 5 mins on R4 this morning about medicinal cannabis in the Netherlands, and people from the UK going to Holland to buy it for affected children, mostly for the treatment of epilepsy. But I can't find a link to the R4 chat online right.....

did manage to find this however, https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/m0007zly, could be of interest.

For me with possibly 25-30 investment years ahead of me (touch wood!!), I think Hash not Fags is the growth area I should be considering, if any of.

Matt

My suspicion is we will rally strongly from here. All the financial metrics look strange to me. Feels like a mispricing. I also like the share buy backs. Makes a lot of sense to me at these prices

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

I stated my case re. nicotine as an investment vehicle that I'm now somewhat negative about. However, my views on the MJ and CBD are still upbeat. Mentioned on R4 this morning:

Cannabis-based drugs to help epilepsy and MS approved for NHS use

Campaigners welcome the move but say thousands of other people who could benefit from cannabis-based drugs are left in limbo.

Two medicines derived from the cannabis plant have been recommended for use on the NHS for the first time.

Epidyolex has been approved for two rare types of epilepsy, Lennox-Gastaut and Dravet syndromes, while the spray Sativex has been recommended for muscle spasms in multiple sclerosis (MS).

Charities welcomed the move, but said thousands of other people with a range of conditions who could benefit from cannabis-based medicines were left in limbo.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (Nice) has ruled out prescribing drugs containing THC (delta-9-tetrahydrocannabinol) - the psychoactive ingredient in cannabis - to treat chronic pain.

(IOW, good news generally, but still no clear legal pathway for THC)

https://news.sky.com/story/cannabis-bas ... e-11859209

Matt

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

This is in the press everyday now:

Vaping nearly killed me, says British teenager
A teenage boy nearly died after vaping caused a catastrophic reaction in his lungs, doctors in Nottingham say.

Ewan Fisher was connected to an artificial lung to keep him alive after his own lungs failed and he could not breathe.

Ewan told BBC News e-cigarettes had "basically ruined me" and urged other young people not to vape.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-50377256

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

I gave up on posting bad vaping news stories. There are too many and I got bored. Sign of a broader, quite predictable, trend came off the back of announcement from the WHO made on R4 this morning:

For the first time, the World Health Organization projects that the number of males using tobacco is on the decline, indicating a powerful shift in the global tobacco epidemic. The findings, published today in a new WHO report, demonstrate how government-led action can protect communities from tobacco, save lives and prevent people suffering tobacco-related harm.

“Declines in tobacco use amongst males mark a turning point in the fight against tobacco,” said Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, WHO Director-General. “For many years now we had witnessed a steady rise in the number of males using deadly tobacco products. But now, for the first time, we are seeing a decline in male use, driven by governments being tougher on the tobacco industry. WHO will continue working closely with countries to maintain this downward trend.”

During nearly the past two decades, overall global tobacco use has fallen, from 1.397 billion in 2000 to 1.337 billion in 2018, or by approximately 60 million people, according to the WHO global report on trends in prevalence of tobacco use 2000-2025 third edition.

This has been largely driven by reductions in the number of females using these products (346 million in 2000 down to 244 million in 2018, or a fall over around 100 million).

Over the same period, male tobacco use had risen by around 40 million, from 1.050 billion in 2000 to 1.093 billion in 2018 (or 82% of the world’s current 1.337 billion tobacco users).

But positively, the new report shows that the number of male tobacco users has stopped growing and is projected to decline by more than 1 million fewer male users come 2020 (or 1.091 billion) compared to 2018 levels, and 5 million less by 2025 (1.087 billion).

By 2020, WHO projects there will be 10 million fewer tobacco users, male and female, compared to 2018, and another 27 million less by 2025, amounting to 1.299 billion. Some 60% of countries have been experiencing a decline in tobacco use since 2010.

Some related articles:

https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/19 ... use-trends
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... e-who-says

Matt

[pixtel]

I see lots of poster adverts for vape and e-cig products with pictures of confident looking females. Maybe the aim is to compensate loss of male purchasers with more female ones.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

I see lots of poster adverts for vape and e-cig products with pictures of confident looking females. Maybe the aim is to compensate loss of male purchasers with more female ones.

I wouldn't know! But I remember in my first professional job back in the early 90s, I was in a firm of about 30-40 others, and how every hour or two 4-5 of them would congregate outside the building for a smoke.

Now I work in a campus of 3 large buildings, and there's about 1200 people. You *might* see the odd person outside having a solitary vape or fag. It's not exactly a growth industry selling to this lot.

[kempiejon]

Anecdotally again, I work in a post 16 college of a few thousand kids, there's certainly dozens, probably not a hundred each breaktime having a fag or vape in the smoking area. Of the 500 teachers about half a dozen who go for a smoke. There's a pub round the corner from me, I drive past most evenings and there's a handful of smokers round the tables outside usually huddling under the umbrellas round the heaters.
I think the tobacco companies will handle the wind down for the next few years but it's not a place for further investment for me.
I was lured in by the hype and bought a Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth, I've seen a good chunk of my value reduce, off 40% now.

[anon155742]

[url]https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc1910739
[/url]

The number of teens vaping in America continues to rise

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Anecdotally again, I work in a post 16 college of a few thousand kids, there's certainly dozens, probably not a hundred each breaktime having a fag or vape in the smoking area. Of the 500 teachers about half a dozen who go for a smoke. There's a pub round the corner from me, I drive past most evenings and there's a handful of smokers round the tables outside usually huddling under the umbrellas round the heaters.

You make a good point KJ. It really does depend where you look. At my works (Qualcomm in Cambridge) a lot of employees are a healthy-minded lot so we have v. low numbers of smokers.

However, several of the 17-18 year olds in my eldest kids age group I know smoke - therefore have recently taken it up.

(FWIW I smoked from ages 13-25 years. I gave up 26 years ago....)

I think the tobacco companies will handle the wind down for the next few years but it's not a place for further investment for me.

Yup

I was lured in by the hype and bought a Canadian cannabis company Canopy Growth, I've seen a good chunk of my value reduce, off 40% now.

Yes, I've seen them around:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canopy_Growth

So briefly - what's the lowdown on them? Have they made profits yet? What's been happening with them etc.?

Matt