Expect to still be holding in 2030:Canadians – Brookfield Asset Management, IMHO very much like a younger Berkshire Hathaway. Brookfield is a major player in global infrastructure, both as an owner and as asset manager for its many clients through its various quoted and unquoted funds.
Canadian Pacific. All North American railroads have a colossal moat, especially those like CP which connect to the Pacific Coast (longer distances travelled so a bigger moat against trucks than the East Coast rails). Investors need to accept the cyclical nature of the business (and thus share prices); either be good at market timing or hold through the falls.
Americans – Berkshire Hathaway. Disney, the number one entertainment company on the planet, superb brands, ability to cross-sell via its many outlets, especially its theme parks (Netflix can't do that). Union Pacific (see Canadian Pacific).
British – Smith & Nephew, which IMHO is a better play on the increasing demand for healthcare than the pharmaceuticals with their highly manipulated “core earnings”. Also Diageo and Unilever which are well covered on TLF.
Probably still holding (60%-ish) in 2030:Americans – Mondelez International. The number one global snacking company (this is where Cadburys ended up).
Madison Square Garden, with its superb trophy assets of The New York Knicks (basketball) and New York Rangers (ice hockey). Unfortunately televised ratings for basketball have fallen sharply recently, in part because the NBA has a PR disaster on its hands having grovelled to the Chinese government, following a tweet from the general manager of the Houston Rockets in which he supported the Kong Kong protesters (story below). MSG has also made a big investment in building arenas in Las Vegas and London (the MSG Spheres), which makes it riskier and thus a weaker hold than it used to be.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-49995985British – Capital and Counties, Derwent London, Great Portland Estates, Shaftesbury (all four are Central London commercial property companies). Central London IMHO will be the place to invest in commercial property once Brexit deal uncertainty has been resolved and Crossrail has opened.
Expect to have sold in the 2020s:Americans – Lions Gate Entertainment. This is a big punt on the consolidation of the streaming market as the medium sized players look to make themselves bigger to compete against Disney and Netflix. Lions Gate is currently valued at $2.1 billion; earlier this year it turned down a $5 billion bid from CBS for its main subsidiary “Starz”. I'd be surprised if I still owned these in 2021.
British – National Grid, which is becoming more exposed to an increasingly hostile regulatory environment both in the UK and East Coast America.
Burberry; the British luxury goods company will make a nice acquisition for one of the luxury majors, e.g. LVMH. I expect a takeover bid sometime in the 2020s.
Big trends for the 2020s:Demographics (ageing population means more healthcare demand).
Growth of the middle class in the developing world (very good for Diageo and Unilever).
Pushback against fossil fuels and towards renewables. Renewables are not in my circle of competence, and nowadays I avoid oil companies (which are in my circle of competence thanks to many years in companies like Soco International). Brookfield and Berkshire Hathaway are quite big in renewables, so I've got some exposure there.
Increasing dominance of their markets by the big technology companies, ending when they are restrained / broken up by governments. This may still be very good for investors. Standard Oil is a great example of the possible benefits to investors when a dominant company is broken up, producing more innovation. Tech like this is outside my circle of competence, so I delegate this sector to investment trust managers.
Finally, Investment trusts. Probably have kept most of them (15 different holdings). The ones which will be the least likely to be sold are the family investment trusts where the family is still heavily involved (thus providing both monitoring and a longer-term outlook): Brunner, Caledonia Investments and RIT Capital Partners.