Officially a bear market now

[fca2019]

Ftse 100 down over 8.5%, this morning, on track for its worst one-day fall since 2008.

Down over 20%, so not just a correction. My guess will take a full 12 months at least to recover.

BP down 27% and Shell down 20% on opening , cause of oil down 30% due to price war.

At these prices oil giants, Lloyd's etc has to be a buy but who is brave enough?

[kempiejon]

I'll be buying at a global collective level for the next couple of months with some new money especially in April and mopping up any dividends into the vanguard etf VWRL.

[redsturgeon]

I have a lot of cash on the sideline waiting for a home but I'm waiting for now. Too much uncertainty still for me.

John

[Midsmartin]

It's difficult isn't it? Modelling seems to suggest that the virus outbreak could peak in a country maybe 2-4 months after it starts - if it's handled well. We need to add the decline after the peak before normality returns, plus allow for mess-ups, second waves coming in from places where the system can't contain it. Alas the US seems to be a place that''s currently not handling it well. So the virus is likely to be disrupting things for, what, a year or more ? The markets are likely to turn up before the actual recovery is in place. But I see politicians talking about "short shocks" where it looks quite a long one to me. I only wish I'd sold all my shares just before they fell. I kind of knew I should but for various reasons didnt' quite get around to most of the job!

The economic models I've managed to find use viruses that are less dangerous than the ones epidemiologists are talking about too. Hopefully I'm just in panic mode and things will turn out to be ok, as they usually are!

[tikunetih]

I have a lot of cash on the sideline waiting for a home but I'm waiting for now. Too much uncertainty still for me.

Personally, I truly love a good crash, and feel excited when prices tank, not fearful. The more uncertainty there is, and the more that I observe others panicking or stepping back, the more likely I am to be a buyer.

History - both market history and my own long term investment track record - shows my method to be sound, and I commend it to the house.

[redsturgeon]

It's difficult isn't it? Modelling seems to suggest that the virus outbreak could peak in a country maybe 2-4 months after it starts - if it's handled well. We need to add the decline after the peak before normality returns, plus allow for mess-ups, second waves coming in from places where the system can't contain it. Alas the US seems to be a place that''s currently not handling it well. So the virus is likely to be disrupting things for, what, a year or more ? The markets are likely to turn up before the actual recovery is in place. But I see politicians talking about "short shocks" where it looks quite a long one to me. I only wish I'd sold all my shares just before they fell. I kind of knew I should but for various reasons didnt' quite get around to most of the job!

The economic models I've managed to find use viruses that are less dangerous than the ones epidemiologists are talking about too. Hopefully I'm just in panic mode and things will turn out to be ok, as they usually are!

Yes and the market that is most important is probably the US rather than the UK. I have a bad felling about how the virus is being handled in the US and how the US health system is not really designed to to deal with this type of threat.

So I'm content to hold fire for another month at least before starting to pull the trigger to drip back into the market at perhaps 10% per month, maybe less.

John

[Steveam]

Earlier today I bought some SMDS (a share I've wanted for sometime). I'll continue buying over the next few weeks/months very much as I would normally - perhaps a little more aggressive buying than I would have. Really unconcerned by the whole thing - its only painful if you open your eyes and look

[simoan]

I have a lot of cash on the sideline waiting for a home but I'm waiting for now. Too much uncertainty still for me.

Personally, I truly love a good crash, and feel excited when prices tank, not fearful. The more uncertainty there is, and the more that I observe others panicking or stepping back, the more likely I am to be a buyer.

History - both market history and my own long term investment track record - shows my method to be sound, and I commend it to the house.

~~~~~~~~~ [inappropriate] stupid comments if you ask me.

Dod

Why are they stupid comments? I read comments every day on these boards from people talking their own book. If you have taken your foot off the risk pedal and been waiting for this moment in cash for the last year or so, then your eyes should be lighting up - this is what you've been waiting for. If you're fully invested, then I agree things will probably be uncomfortable for a while and result in grumpy posts like yours.

It's at time's like this that you realise how risk averse everyone investing in equities has been for the past 10 years and how much complacency there has been in stock markets generally. It looks like this year will be a great one for those patient enough to hold cash.

All the best, Si (33% cash for the past year)

[Dod101]

Why are they stupid comments? I read comments every day on these boards from people talking their own book. If you have taken your foot off the risk pedal and been waiting for this moment in cash for the last year or so, then your eyes should be lighting up - this is what you've been waiting for. If you're fully invested, then I agree things will probably be uncomfortable for a while and result in grumpy posts like yours.

It's at time's like this that you realise how risk averse everyone investing in equities has been for the past 10 years and how much complacency there has been in stock markets generally. It looks like this year will be a great one for those patient enough to hold cash.

All the best, Si (33% cash for the past year)

Well I am 'talking my own book' as well and from my point of view they are stupid comments. In any case, when markets fall off a cliff as they are currently doing, it is often not necessarily a good sign; we need to try to analyse the underlying cause and take a view on that. tikunetih writes as though every substantial market fall is great news. They are not, not even for one is just waiting to get in.

Everyone investing in equities for the last year has not been risk averse. That is just another broad generalisation. it is just that some of them did not realise how risky investing in equities can be. I am only too well aware of the risks involved in investing in equities and although I cannot say I am unfazed by the current situation, am well able as a fully invested investor to sit it out. I have never been complacent and never will be. Stockmarkets are potentially highly dangerous but also can be very rewarding.

Dod

[gnawsome]

Dod

It's at time's like this that you realise how risk averse everyone investing in equities has been for the past 10 years and how much complacency there has been in stock markets generally.

Are those the words you meant?
I can't work out the meaning but I'm sure it has some significance for me if I could understand it

[tikunetih]

I've absolutely no idea why Dod would consider my considered comment "stupid".

It was an accurate description of how I, an experienced and successful* trader and investor, feel and act in the face of falling markets and panicking investors. The scarier it looks to others, the more I am likely to lean against it in a measured, dispassionate, rational manner. Why? Because it works.

YMMV.


* No bragging, simply statements of fact.

[simoan]

Well I am 'talking my own book' as well and from my point of view they are stupid comments. In any case, when markets fall off a cliff as they are currently doing, it is often not necessarily a good sign;

It completely depends on your timescale. I can't think of a single bear market that hasn't looked like a little blip looking back on a long range chart. Of course, if you don't have 25 years that's another matter, but it's no reason to get miffed by the approach of someone that has. Unless you believe this is the end of civilisation and capitalism as we know it; in which case the value of your investments is the least of your worries!

Everyone investing in equities for the last year has not been risk averse. That is just another broad generalisation.

No it's not. It's been pretty obvious for a few years that pricing had got ahead of fundamentals, especially in the US, and people were paying historically very high prices. This was never going to last forever and those patient enough to wait for prices to revert to historical norms were likely to get a chance to buy at the kind of prices they were prepared to pay. And here we are.

Stockmarkets are potentially highly dangerous but also can be very rewarding.

That's utter rubbish. Stockmarkets are not dangerous, only the behaviour of investors in the stockmarket is dangerous. Investing in companies that generate cashflow and reinvest those cashflows or share them with shareholders, is the only real means to invest for long term wealth for the vast majority of people. Let's not scare the horses...

Si

[dspp]

Moderator Message:
Please stop with inappropriate language. I object to wasting my time cleaning up trash talk. Thank you. dspp