The Lemon Fool

dealtn wrote:
Gear4Music (G4M). Similar. Originally bought well before lockdown, on the back of market perception of poor results for a "growth" stock. Dropping from about 800p to 200p. I considered that a massive over-reaction having analysed why margins were hit (and in my view likely to recover). My initial target was to double, so back to half previous price. (I am a natural - and stubborn - contrarian). Before that target was hit lockdown provided an opportunity to add (although only small) as the view was that "some" would use lockdown to either learn, or rediscover, musical instruments. (A conversation with the postman confirmed an increase in packages at the sorting office and we speculated about the contents - musical instruments and gym equipment came up!).

Trading Update


https://www.investegate.co.uk/gear4musi ... 00022253W/

One I glad I ran as a winner, now back North of 800p

Has extensive operations in the UK and Europe (with warehouse capability both sides so Brexit trade issues don't appear to be an issue).

Cheap on a P/E basis, especially for a company with a lot of growth. So how much growth is there? Was it a beneficiary of lockdown and growth actually forecast to be negative (broker research suggests so)?

This has been a really informative discussion.
Yes, not many have actually answered the OPs original question about detail of holdings etc, but as someone who is moving away from an HYP-type income focussed strategy I have found a lot of interesting stuff here.
I especially am interested in how people's thinking and approach to share/IT/fund selection has changed over time and why.
Thanks for the posts, all.

absolutezero wrote:This has been a really informative discussion.
Yes, not many have actually answered the OPs original question about detail of holdings etc, but as someone who is moving away from an HYP-type income focussed strategy I have found a lot of interesting stuff here.
I especially am interested in how people's thinking and approach to share/IT/fund selection has changed over time and why.
Thanks for the posts, all.

For the first time in over 15 years changed my ISA Investment from me buying individual shares to buying units in Global Growth Fund
I couldn't decide what shares to buy as the markets had risen quite a lot and nothing look that attractive to me, and since buying that OEIC last month is has risen by over 8% (which comfortably beats the 0.5% savings account that I took the funds from)
Early days but so far it's good

pje16 wrote:

absolutezero wrote:This has been a really informative discussion.
Yes, not many have actually answered the OPs original question about detail of holdings etc, but as someone who is moving away from an HYP-type income focussed strategy I have found a lot of interesting stuff here.
I especially am interested in how people's thinking and approach to share/IT/fund selection has changed over time and why.
Thanks for the posts, all.

For the first time in over 15 years changed my ISA Investment from me buying individual shares to buying units in Global Growth Fund
I couldn't decide what shares to buy as the markets had risen quite a lot and nothing look that attractive to me, and since buying that OEIC last month is has risen by over 8% (which comfortably beats the 0.5% savings account that I took the funds from)
Early days but so far it's good

It has been hard to find something which hasn't risen this year, but the last one in this list is suffering from the woes of the Chinese market.

Shares                                          31-Dec-20   29-Jul-21   Change
FT30                                              2,522.4     2,749.3    9.00%
FT350HY                                           2,893.1     3,209.1   10.92%
FTSE100                                           6,460.5     7078.42    9.56%
Witan Investment Trust plc                         2.3050      2.4550    6.51%
F&C Investment Trust                               7.8700      8.5400    8.51%
Alliance Trust plc                                 9.0100     10.0600   11.65%
M&G Dividend OEIC                                  0.5016      0.5471    9.07%
JPMF Natural Res B Acc Shs                         0.7398      0.8518   15.14%
Threadneedle UK Eq Inc OEIC                        1.3448      1.5052   11.93%
Mellon Newton UK Equity OEIC                       1.3558      1.4864    9.63%
Mellon Newton UK Income OEIC                       1.1867      1.2909    8.78%
Mellon Newton Cont'l European OEIC                 2.0498      2.1750    6.11%
Mellon Newton Oriental OEIC                        2.2533      2.1146   -6.16%

TJH

absolutezero wrote:I especially am interested in how people's thinking and approach to share/IT/fund selection has changed over time and why.

“The education of an index investor, born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.”
https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/tag/Rick+Ferri

JohnW wrote:

absolutezero wrote:I especially am interested in how people's thinking and approach to share/IT/fund selection has changed over time and why.

“The education of an index investor, born in darkness, finds indexing enlightenment, overcomplicates everything, embraces simplicity.”
https://rationalreminder.ca/podcast/tag/Rick+Ferri

I do see the attraction of being an index hugger (my SIPP is with Vanguard and so contains nothing but trackers) but with my "get rich" money I want to beat the market rather than just track it - hence actively managed ITs.

absolutezero wrote:I do see the attraction of being an index hugger (my SIPP is with Vanguard and so contains nothing but trackers) but with my "get rich" money I want to beat the market rather than just track it - hence actively managed ITs.

The Holy Grail - seeking alpha.

I opted for a very concentrated SIPP portfolio. So far, it's beaten its benchmarks (including the FTSE All World) since 2014 by 1% a year (net of fees). Not much and maybe worse on a risk-adjusted basis, but 1% a year would really add up over time...IF it can keep going!

Best wishes


Mark

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:

absolutezero wrote:I do see the attraction of being an index hugger (my SIPP is with Vanguard and so contains nothing but trackers) but with my "get rich" money I want to beat the market rather than just track it - hence actively managed ITs.

The Holy Grail - seeking alpha.

I opted for a very concentrated SIPP portfolio. So far, it's beaten its benchmarks (including the FTSE All World) since 2014 by 1% a year (net of fees). Not much and maybe worse on a risk-adjusted basis, but 1% a year would really add up over time...IF it can keep going!

Best wishes


Mark

If only we had crystal balls. So to speak.

dealtn wrote:

dealtn wrote:
Gear4Music (G4M). Similar. Originally bought well before lockdown, on the back of market perception of poor results for a "growth" stock. Dropping from about 800p to 200p. I considered that a massive over-reaction having analysed why margins were hit (and in my view likely to recover). My initial target was to double, so back to half previous price. (I am a natural - and stubborn - contrarian). Before that target was hit lockdown provided an opportunity to add (although only small) as the view was that "some" would use lockdown to either learn, or rediscover, musical instruments. (A conversation with the postman confirmed an increase in packages at the sorting office and we speculated about the contents - musical instruments and gym equipment came up!).

Trading Update


https://www.investegate.co.uk/gear4musi ... 00022253W/

One I glad I ran as a winner, now back North of 800p

Has extensive operations in the UK and Europe (with warehouse capability both sides so Brexit trade issues don't appear to be an issue).

Cheap on a P/E basis, especially for a company with a lot of growth. So how much growth is there? Was it a beneficiary of lockdown and growth actually forecast to be negative (broker research suggests so)?

Sorry to revisit an old thread, but this is an interesting case in point, and I haven't seen any further updates since this one. It would appear the SP has dropped over 75% since this post, and about 12.5% since purchase well over two years ago. The share doesn't pay a dividend so, in order to have benefitted from the investment, it would have been necessary to have sold some or all of it while the sun was still shining.

I prefer to spare myself these tricky selling decisions by having a relatively steady dividend income stream from much of my portfolio. However, I would be very interested to know whether this share holding was partly or completely sold at a profit and, if so, the decision-making process(es) that triggered the sale. I find it far less palatable looking at some of the current losses showing in the supposedly "growthier" part of my portfolio than the regular payments coming from the rest of it!

TIA

CP

CryptoPlankton wrote:

dealtn wrote:

dealtn wrote:
Gear4Music (G4M). Similar. Originally bought well before lockdown, on the back of market perception of poor results for a "growth" stock. Dropping from about 800p to 200p. I considered that a massive over-reaction having analysed why margins were hit (and in my view likely to recover). My initial target was to double, so back to half previous price. (I am a natural - and stubborn - contrarian). Before that target was hit lockdown provided an opportunity to add (although only small) as the view was that "some" would use lockdown to either learn, or rediscover, musical instruments. (A conversation with the postman confirmed an increase in packages at the sorting office and we speculated about the contents - musical instruments and gym equipment came up!).

Trading Update


https://www.investegate.co.uk/gear4musi ... 00022253W/

One I glad I ran as a winner, now back North of 800p

Has extensive operations in the UK and Europe (with warehouse capability both sides so Brexit trade issues don't appear to be an issue).

Cheap on a P/E basis, especially for a company with a lot of growth. So how much growth is there? Was it a beneficiary of lockdown and growth actually forecast to be negative (broker research suggests so)?

Sorry to revisit an old thread, but this is an interesting case in point, and I haven't seen any further updates since this one. It would appear the SP has dropped over 75% since this post, and about 12.5% since purchase well over two years ago. The share doesn't pay a dividend so, in order to have benefitted from the investment, it would have been necessary to have sold some or all of it while the sun was still shining.

I prefer to spare myself these tricky selling decisions by having a relatively steady dividend income stream from much of my portfolio. However, I would be very interested to know whether this share holding was partly or completely sold at a profit and, if so, the decision-making process(es) that triggered the sale. I find it far less palatable looking at some of the current losses showing in the supposedly "growthier" part of my portfolio than the regular payments coming from the rest of it!

TIA

CP

I have barely bought or sold anything, or even reviewed my portfolio for nearly a year - simply too busy.

Half was sold at 685p the rest still owned. I would need to go back to see what the trigger was for the sale as I can't remember.

Might be worth revisiting if I find the time.

dealtn wrote:I have barely bought or sold anything, or even reviewed my portfolio for nearly a year - simply too busy.

Half was sold at 685p the rest still owned. I would need to go back to see what the trigger was for the sale as I can't remember.

Might be worth revisiting if I find the time.

That would be appreciated. As you can't remember (despite the lack of other activity) perhaps you employed some kind of mechanical stop loss (it was sold at about 30% below the high)? It does seem a sensible move to bank a decent profit with the price falling sharply, even if the fundamental investment case hasn't changed. Certainly something I tend to do, but more out of fear than a clearly defined strategy! In any case, well done, it has proved to be a decent decision.

CryptoPlankton wrote:

dealtn wrote:I have barely bought or sold anything, or even reviewed my portfolio for nearly a year - simply too busy.

Half was sold at 685p the rest still owned. I would need to go back to see what the trigger was for the sale as I can't remember.

Might be worth revisiting if I find the time.

That would be appreciated. As you can't remember (despite the lack of other activity) perhaps you employed some kind of mechanical stop loss (it was sold at about 30% below the high)? It does seem a sensible move to bank a decent profit with the price falling sharply, even if the fundamental investment case hasn't changed. Certainly something I tend to do, but more out of fear than a clearly defined strategy! In any case, well done, it has proved to be a decent decision.

I don't use stop-losses and neither do I use any kind of charting or technical analysis, so it won't have been that. More likely I just needed some money so needed to sell "something". The rise in price to a more expensive valuation, coupled with the large Director selling may have been how this was chosen over others.

Looking back at how this thread started, and my initial post, it kind of proves my original point. Unlike other well defined strategies, such as HYP, it is very hard to explain any, and certainly every, decision, be that a buy or a sell, when there really isn't an underlying (rules based) strategy. There are generic reasons for investing (perhaps more specific ones for not buying specific shares!) but no rule book. It is as much art as science.

Thank you for bringing the topic back alive though. even more so for the opportunity to revisit a share that served me well, and has grown considerably since its IPO, even if that growth as reflected in its share price is less obvious (currently).

dealtn wrote:Unlike other well defined strategies, such as HYP, it is very hard to explain any, and certainly every, decision, be that a buy or a sell, when there really isn't an underlying (rules based) strategy.

I do wonder how many people actually adhere to a "well defined" rules based strategy. Even most of the HYP posters here seem to allow quite a bit of latitude and subjectivity in their decision making.

dealtn wrote:It is as much art as science.

I think this is something that all investors begin to appreciate with experience. Of course, some artists will inevitably be more talented than others, which may account for some of the differences in approach. All that really matters is that we each find a strategy that suits us, and recognise that there is no universally "correct" approach. Still, for those with an open mind, there is always something to learn (about people, as much as investing) from exchanging thoughts and ideas.