Chess and Shares

[GoSeigen]

You are mistaking complexity (lots of possible moves) for uncertainty.

Eh? There's oodles of randomness surely. The next move by one's opponent is a random variable. Knight to d6 or f6.......seems akin with a coin toss turning up heads or tails.

Not if we are assuming best play. Chess is interesting for humans because the other player makes plenty of mistakes. Same with investing.

GS

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

You are mistaking complexity (lots of possible moves) for uncertainty.

Eh? There's oodles of randomness surely. The next move by one's opponent is a random variable. Knight to d6 or f6.......seems akin with a coin toss turning up heads or tails.

Not if we are assuming best play. Chess is interesting for humans because the other player makes plenty of mistakes. Same with investing.

GS

Surely you can't assume "best play" with human participants, hence mistakes and choice and randomness results.

[Bubblesofearth]

Surely you can't assume "best play" with human participants, hence mistakes and choice and randomness results.

I think you need to check the definition of randomness.

BoE

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Surely you can't assume "best play" with human participants, hence mistakes and choice and randomness results.

I think you need to check the definition of randomness.

BoE

Unpredictability. As in I don't know whether F6 or D6 is their next move. IMHO that makes their next move a random variable.

[everhopeful]

Your example demonstrates why the opponents move is not random. If a knight moves to F6 or D6 it is because it can only move in a certain way due to the rules of chess. Furthermore the move is dictated by some plan the opponent has however misguided. Both of these things mean the move is not random.

[johnhemming]

Surely you can't assume "best play" with human participants, hence mistakes and choice and randomness results.

I think if you said it was hard to predict people would agree with you, but if you say it is random people would not.

[Alaric]

Furthermore the move is dictated by some plan the opponent has however misguided. Both of these things mean the move is not random.

At moderately high levels of chess skill, you would spot both moves and have an idea to follow against each of them.

[Lootman]

Furthermore the move is dictated by some plan the opponent has however misguided. Both of these things mean the move is not random.

At moderately high levels of chess skill, you would spot both moves and have an idea to follow against each of them.

But even grandmasters are sometimes surprised by a move they had not considered. There can be 20 or more possibilities for a move by each side, so seeing all the possibilities just one move out can be 400 or more. Grandmasters might see 5 or 10 moves ahead so there are tens of thousands of possible combinations.

What most good players do is rapidly reduce the possible moves for consideration down to a handful of options, which are seen as the "best" moves. But players can and do miss moves and combinations.

So not random, but not entirely predictable either.

[Bubblesofearth]

Surely you can't assume "best play" with human participants, hence mistakes and choice and randomness results.

I think you need to check the definition of randomness.

BoE

Unpredictability. As in I don't know whether F6 or D6 is their next move. IMHO that makes their next move a random variable.

Maybe in your opinion but not according to any formal definition of randomness I've ever come across. For chess to be random the moves would need to be generated by a random source such as a random number generator (leaving aside whether such things are truly random). When a person is playing chess they move with a defined purpose rather than at random. Just because their opponent cannot necessarily predict their move does not make it random.

BoE

[Adamski]

Great point, I do think there were skills that we learnt in playing chess like patience and analytical thinking which assist greatly with personal investing.

Come to think of it my early trading skills were honed playing Elite on the BBC B, and involved running a dubious triangle trade of furs, slaves, and narcotics. The connotations would make that game content unacceptable now I'm sure. At the time it enabled me to acquire a beam laser quite quickly.

I was the same, but showing off had the BBC+ version with floppy hard drive. How they created such impressive graphics and a universe in such little memory was an incredible feat. I spent weeks getting to deadly, but gave up at that point when found out it would take more than double the time to get to elite. Moorfield, you might like this 'making of elite' https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yo ... &FORM=VIRE

[moorfield]

Great point, I do think there were skills that we learnt in playing chess like patience and analytical thinking which assist greatly with personal investing.

Come to think of it my early trading skills were honed playing Elite on the BBC B, and involved running a dubious triangle trade of furs, slaves, and narcotics. The connotations would make that game content unacceptable now I'm sure. At the time it enabled me to acquire a beam laser quite quickly.

I was the same, but showing off had the BBC+ version with floppy hard drive. How they created such impressive graphics and a universe in such little memory was an incredible feat. I spent weeks getting to deadly, but gave up at that point when found out it would take more than double the time to get to elite. Moorfield, you might like this 'making of elite' https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=yo ... &FORM=VIRE

Super, thanks. Yes me too only got as far as Deadly. Once I got bored of carrying on I got hold of the file editor iirc.