The Lemon Fool

In the same way a number of us are trying to disentangle the Brexit effects from the hopefully one-off Covid effect on the UK economy and the consequent implications to personal investment strategies, I was wondering whether Fools have a view the extent that the current market 'correction' also factors in the possibility of a Russian invasion of Ukraine. Of course the nature of the invasion can be manifold as well as the nature of retaliatory actions by the West. Bottom line - how the markets would react to an invasion - especially if it appeared to become a drawn out confrontation in terms of the geo-political implications.

Personally, I am thinking of selling a small element (5%/7%) of my portfolio that maybe more vulnerable to a high downside risk in the event of Russian military action and holding tight elsewhere. As it happens, my 2 grandchildren have been left some money in a will and I have been asked to 'invest' as appropriate within existing SIPPs. I have almost come to the conclusion that I should await to see how the Ukrainian situation plays out before investing.

T7

I think we come to the bull markets climb a wall of fear, there is always something, China invades Taiwan, North Korea attacks, Covid becomes more serious….

Perhaps have a portfolio allocation that is comfortable and rebalance to that and try and ignore the market noise, it might sound too simplistic but it really works over the long term.

You are looking to invest for grandchildren. My approach is to choose one or more of the big global ITs, (ATST, FCIT and WTAN). They will be going long after you have departed this world.

You can't time the market, which has a mind of its own, sometimes defying logic. Stick their legacies in those and leave well alone. If you can only afford one, FCIT would be my choice.

TJH

I am always overweight in arms makers. Even in peacetime they are a solid investment, but they really come into their own when conflicts arise, which they regularly and reliably do.

So I hold Lockheed Martin, General Dynamics, Raytheon Technologies and Northrop Grumman. Making missiles that cost a few million each and can only be used once seems like a perfect business.

Mr Market's preferred situation:
Clear 1st: We are at peace.
Very Close 2nd: We are at war. (War is good for business, lots of juicy arms sales. Unless you're on the receiving end)
Way Way Distant 3rd: Not sure whether we are going to war or not. (The market hates uncertainty)

Which means the market should be lowest at the moment, and should increase either way once the position becomes more certain.

Gryff