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Low Yield Portfolio

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
1nvest
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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#611963

Postby 1nvest » August 29th, 2023, 3:43 pm

Measured on total returns and the same amount of income drawn from each via DIY dividends (0% in the following)

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and there's no consistent indication that high dividend yields (HYP) to be exceptional.

HYP1 was proposed as a annuity alternative, where you retained the capital value, however the income production has been volatile/inconsistent, unlike a annuity, or DIY dividend methods such as SWR (consistent inflation adjusted income/dividend to the amount/timing that better matches your particular circumstances).

investors are often attracted into choices that have performed relatively well, expect that relative outpacing to continue. Often however that flips around, past laggards can rise to be the ongoing winners, whilst past leaders may decline to relatively lag. A broader index such as world/FCIT ... is inclined to be more centralish, as it includes elements of other sub-set portfolios/asset-allocations.

Average tends to be good-enough. Average-in, average-out, average holdings. Beyond that the only other aspect investors have some degree of control over are costs and taxes. If BRK avoids 15% US dividend withholding taxes that otherwise might have incurred a 2% dividend, 0.3% withholding tax, then that's more in your pocket. As might a lower yield portfolio be more tax efficient for some than a higher yielding portfolio.

High yield is a additional risk factor. Prior budgets have mentioned 'ISA dividends continue to remain tax free' ... that reading between the lines might have been taken as there was a background thought that ISA's might be revised to exclude dividends being tax exempt. As with bonds interest, dividends are regular/ongoing taxable events, in contrast capital gains can be deferred or selectively adjusted (portfolio reviews are best made around the end/start of old/new tax years, as capital gains might be taken in the old, new or a combination of both ... whichever might be the more tax efficient). Foregoing such advantages ... is a potential cost (risk).

Fair enough, for those that own their own home, have pensions that provide income comparable to a sizeable bond portfolio value, and can hold all of their stock in ISA/SIPP, then that can be tax/cost efficient (subject to changes in the likes of ISA dividends rules).

Liquidity is another factor to consider, the costs if you did have to sell-up and move perhaps your entire portfolio value.

The EU pretty much drove in a situation where UK investors into US funds saw that transitioned over to where both price appreciation and dividends became taxable as income (non-reporting funds, to HMRC, where KID's became mandatory but have near zero value). With capital gains tax exemptions in decline, for some having gains all as income taxable might be preferable, if for instance they had no other income other than their portfolio income (£12,500 personal allowance). Again however and the EU makes that difficult, most brokers will refuse to sell you a product/fund unless it has a KID.

Another risk factor often ignored is how the state has progressively introduce high degrees of monitoring/tracking. In 2017 a list of something like 120 countries was released, agreed sharing of data, and where another sizeable tranche were on the books to be added to that list. Banks have been driven to where they're starting to pretty much report all transactions to the state, as otherwise they risk losing their licence if anti-laundering cases are identified where the transactions weren't flagged. The CONNECT database is exploding in what data it captures, facial recognition, number plate tracking, geolocation recording, internet activities, financial transactions etc. etc. And a rule book where ... everyone is guilty one way or another. The state is progressing on the basis that the UK is a open prison, and where it can lock up or confiscate from whoever, whenever they like. Your money that you worked/gave up some of your life time is deemed by the state as to be its money. Increasingly made more difficult for individuals not to be a slave. We've transitioned to that progressively via stealth. Most don't care, or at least didn't until it was too late. Treat everyone as criminals and people will act criminally. Ending paper money is the next step the state is making on that front - to make it more difficult for instance for individuals to claim they sold something for cash incurring a capital loss that offset their stock capital gains for instance.

It's not that long ago when there was no income taxes, as people considered such taxes to be a invasion of their privacy. Was their money, none of the states business. Taxes were instead collected via spending, purchase taxes, the responsibility of shops/companies to collect/pay the taxes.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612011

Postby GeoffF100 » August 29th, 2023, 6:53 pm

I would like to know more about the Looty LYP. It is an interesting idea. Restricting yourself to low yielding shares reduces diversification, but not as much as restricting yourself to high yielding shares, which virtually eliminates whole markets. In theory, reduced diversification reduces the risk adjusted return, but the outcome is unpredictable nonetheless. Some of us have only been able to tax shelter a fraction of our assets. I view the costs of Monks IT with a mixture of shock and horror, but tax could be the dominant factor for some of us here.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612013

Postby EthicsGradient » August 29th, 2023, 7:35 pm

1nvest wrote:It's not that long ago when there was no income taxes, as people considered such taxes to be a invasion of their privacy. Was their money, none of the states business. Taxes were instead collected via spending, purchase taxes, the responsibility of shops/companies to collect/pay the taxes.

1842, in fact. Less than a decade after the abolition of slavery, when poor laws governed what public help there was for those in need, and no woman had the vote - and about 1 in 6 of the men. Aye, them were the days when politics were done right - none of this namby pamby "everyone gets a say" and "run things to benefit the general population" mollycoddling ...

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612064

Postby 1nvest » August 30th, 2023, 4:49 am

EthicsGradient wrote:
1nvest wrote:It's not that long ago when there was no income taxes, as people considered such taxes to be a invasion of their privacy. Was their money, none of the states business. Taxes were instead collected via spending, purchase taxes, the responsibility of shops/companies to collect/pay the taxes.

1842, in fact. Less than a decade after the abolition of slavery, when poor laws governed what public help there was for those in need, and no woman had the vote - and about 1 in 6 of the men. Aye, them were the days when politics were done right - none of this namby pamby "everyone gets a say" and "run things to benefit the general population" mollycoddling ...

Black slavery. White slavery continued - Charles Sumner (an American politician) in 1847 described the slavery of Christians across Barbary States, Typically traded within Africa (Algeria) where European slaves were sourced by Barbary pirates in slave raids on ships and by raids on coastal towns from Italy to the Netherlands.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612065

Postby 1nvest » August 30th, 2023, 5:25 am

GeoffF100 wrote:I would like to know more about the Looty LYP. It is an interesting idea. Restricting yourself to low yielding shares reduces diversification, but not as much as restricting yourself to high yielding shares, which virtually eliminates whole markets. In theory, reduced diversification reduces the risk adjusted return, but the outcome is unpredictable nonetheless. Some of us have only been able to tax shelter a fraction of our assets. I view the costs of Monks IT with a mixture of shock and horror, but tax could be the dominant factor for some of us here.

Why limit to just stocks. Land, stocks, gold can be tax efficient and just as productive, if not more so. Your primary home is CGT exempt, as is the imputed rent benefit. Some stocks are cost/tax efficient such as BRK and MKL that pay no dividends, levy no fund fees. Gold legal tender coins are free of purchase/sales tax and CGT, pay no interest/dividends. A family home might also be passed on by a couple to their children with a £1M IHT exemption.

Yearly rebalanced thirds each house+imputed (outer London), BRK/MKL 50/50 US stock, gold, compared to HYP1 total return

Image

But of course its not viable to rebalance a house value each year, but that's then into the realm of whether you should just buy and hold, or tweak a HYP. Broadly the tendency is for that to compare. With non rebalanced you tend to end up with a high weighting in the asset(s) that performed the best, which in turn is a more risk concentrated situation. Rebalancing is more a case of risk reduction than reward enhancing activity. Few however tend to ever truly non-rebalance, there are cash flows, new saving added, or withdrawals. Directing such cash flows can keep "non-rebalanced" reasonably balanced for many years, leaving just the infrequent exceptional extremes when one or more may have become too excessively over-weighted for comfort, or to scratch a seven-year-itch.

Thirds GB£ invested in land/house, US$ invested in US stocks, gold global currency (non fiat commodity currency) currency and asset diversity. If you additionally count pensions income as being like a form of bonds that adds in yet further asset/income-production diversity.

16% of ones wealth in each of BRK and MKL however is a bit too much concentration risk. Instead perhaps dilute that down to no more than around 10%, similar to how most stock indexes limit the largest holding to being no more than 10%. FCIT for example is recently paying around a 1.6% dividend such that a three way BRK/MKL/FCIT would pay around a 0.5% dividend. A £600K total wealth, with £200K is stocks paying 0.5% dividends = £1000, and where the first £1000 of dividends are tax exempt.

Drawing a 3% SWR from the stock/gold liquid assets historically had a very high success rate of ending 30 years with the same or more inflation adjusted wealth still being available. With a prospect of having been tax efficient, such that another incurring a 20% taxation liability would have to be drawing a 3.75% gross SWR to compare.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612079

Postby Lootman » August 30th, 2023, 8:18 am

GeoffF100 wrote:I would like to know more about the Looty LYP. It is an interesting idea. Restricting yourself to low yielding shares reduces diversification, but not as much as restricting yourself to high yielding shares, which virtually eliminates whole markets. In theory, reduced diversification reduces the risk adjusted return, but the outcome is unpredictable nonetheless. Some of us have only been able to tax shelter a fraction of our assets. I view the costs of Monks IT with a mixture of shock and horror, but tax could be the dominant factor for some of us here.

MY LYP is basically a mix of shares and funds, that are held in my two taxable accounts. Since the dividends are low, there is little income tax to pay. There is a considerable amount of unrealised capital gains, but I have control over what and when to sell, and have not had the misfortune of involuntary sales due to corporate actions.

Note that my portfolio as a whole is not as unbalanced as you might think, since within my ISA and self-directed retirement plan, I have other types of securities. That said I still have little use there for high-yielding shares, or for UK shares for that matter. I invest for total return and do not need an income.

So my LYP contains Monks, Scottish Mortgage, FundSmith, JP Morgan American, JP Morgan Japanese, North Atlantic Smaller Companies and a gold ETF. All yield less than 1%.

It also contains a number of US shares. Being low-yielding the 15% tax withholding is not a significant issue. My largest holding is Berkshire Hathaway, followed by Apple, MicroSoft, Google, Amazon, Nvidia and then some more speculative names like CrowdStrike, Snowflake, Moderna, Jazz Pharmaceutricals and a biotech ETF. Of those only Apple and MicroSoft pay a dividend, and both of them are under 1%.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612095

Postby vand » August 30th, 2023, 9:14 am

scrumpyjack wrote:
vand wrote:I'm sure "low yield portfolio" is overthinking it.

A HYP is by definition an active stratetgy; if you don't trust it, either because you are trying to position yourself for a tax policy that may or may not happen, or because you view it as a better overall strategy regardless, then just flip back to the default passive strategy, which is a global index tracker.

Anyway, believe it or not, companies aren't stupid 'y'know, and generally have a good idea of the tax code in which they operate. If dividend payments become more disadvantageous they will allocate their capital differently, pay out less dividend and do more buybacks and reinvestment.


Unfortunately I don't think companies consider the private investor at all. They only consider institutional investors. For example Tesco sold their far east business and returned over £5 billion to shareholders. They did this by paying a dividend subject to the highest rates of income tax for private investors, when the amount was clearly a capital item. Crazy. It forced me to sell my Tesco shares before they went xd.


Depends how its implemented. Here dividends are taxed to the individual only, but in the US the company has to pay tax on dividend payouts, making them a less efficient way to money to the shareholder. It's part of the reason why we don't engage in buybacks to as great of a degree.

We have to go back to basics and review what companies can do with their money, and its commonly accepted these are the only choices available:

- Pay out dividends
- Make buybacks
- Reinvest in the company for future growth
- Pay down debt
- Make acquisitions

The relative cost, ease and payoff of each of these will determine its attractiveness.

Accepted that Tesco probably wasn't thinking of your annual dividend allowance when making a special payment, but that's quite a special case - most people would hold it inside a tax wrapper.

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612104

Postby SalvorHardin » August 30th, 2023, 9:49 am

I've done the reverse in the last year having gone from running a low yield portfolio (approx. 1.8%) to a medium yield portfolio (currently 3.4%). This wasn't a conscious decision to increase my income; rather it has come about because I've been buying shares in several very high yielding American and Canadian REITs in the last couple of months. North American REITs have been hammered in the last couple years, but some have risen quite substantially in the last couple of months so my portfolio yield has soared.

There's a lot to be said for running a LYP, even if it's just to break away from the very limited investment universe that the classic HYP permits. In particularly it encourages diversification away from British companies.

Since most of my portfolio is outside ISAs (78% outside, 22% ISAs, no SIPP), I can't avoid tax to a great extent. Most of my holdings outside the ISAs are American and Canadian companies; the withholding tax on these dividends isn't much of an issue as it can be offset against my UK dividend tax liability. But I won't let the tax tail wag the investment dog; over the years I've seen too many people jump through all sorts of hoops to avoid paying tax, only to discover that the saving was far less than they thought and doing so reduced their overall returns.

I'm still holding the old faithfuls in my ten largest holdings; Union Pacific, Canadian Pacific, Berkshire Hathaway, Brookfield Asset Management, Diageo, Burberry, Ocean Wilsons Holdings and Caledonia Investments. There are two new additions; SL Green Realty (Manhattan offices, 8.4% yield, my largest shareholding having almost doubled since buying) and Highwood Properties (South East USA (mostly the Carolinas, Georgia, Florida) offices, 8.3% yield).

The North American railroads are particularly suitable LYP candidates IMHO. They don't pay big dividends by British standards (Union Pacific 2.3%, Canadian Pacific 0.7%, the other railroads have a similar range of yields) and are strong moat companies (it is almost impossible to replace what the North American railroads do unless we get cheap matter transport or close to zero cost energy).

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Re: Low Yield Portfolio

#612510

Postby 1nvest » September 1st, 2023, 12:25 pm

DrFfybes wrote:
simoan wrote:Perhaps I’m talking out of turn here, but buying shares just because they have a low dividend yield is every bit as stupid as buying shares just because they have a high dividend yield. Buy good companies with strong balance sheets, avoid bad companies with weak balance sheets would be my advice.

All the best, Si


If I was buying shares in individual companies then that would be sound advice.

But as I lack the ability/inclination to do that sort of research and long ago learnt I'm not very good at it, then Trackers, ITs, and OEICs are my investment route.

And once you make that leap, yield is a pretty good filter for your chosen approach.

Paul

Even with deep research, often the actual more successful individual stocks are the ones you least expected to be such.

A point I like about funds is the greater liquidity, a single click trade rather than moving 30/whatever individuals. For instance I see the FT250 as being similar to the reward expectancy of a HYP. Which can lead to additional options to potentially bolster rewards. 50/50 2MCL/gold (2MCL = 2x FT250 fund (swap), is a 2x FT250 total return swap that pays no dividends) for instance to me has the same broad reward expectancy as 67/33 FT250/gold, but has 1.5 times the volatility expectancy. You can rotate between the two according to those deviations, somewhat similar to trading in/out of Investment Trusts according to their ongoing price to NAV discount/premium variations.

More recently for instance 50/50 2x/gold has pulled ahead of 67/33 1x/gold, so a time to sell that and rotate into 67/33. At other times that swings the other way around ... times to rotate from 67/33 stock/gold into 50/50 2x/gold. If over 20 years you have one such full rotation of having bought (rotated in) at a 10% discount, sold (rotated out) out a 10% premium, then excluding costs = 22% benefit - adds 1% to overall total compound rewards.

You can also structure that to have a tendency to migrate capital from outside of ISA to inside ISA.

US PV example

You can backtest that using a simplistic model of assuming the 2x fund pays T-Bills + 1.5% in order to borrow (to scale up stock exposure). From my own observations of that, the variations in 30 year SWR outcomes are also scaled up 1.5x, but are still satisfactory i.e. most of the additional variance/volatility is towards the upside, more extreme/better good case outcomes. Combined with premium/discount type rotations and you might broadly be looking at bolstering a 5% SWR to a 6% SWR. A low/no yield portfolio, sourcing a actual high DIY dividend yield outcome (and more consistent increasing (inflation pacing) dividends).

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Zero yield : CHF Gold US-stock

#615079

Postby 1nvest » September 15th, 2023, 1:17 am

Interactive Broker have low FX cost/spreads. HSBC provide free (as in regular) CHF (Swiss Franc) currency account options. Assuming you also have a HSBC £ account, transfer £ into IB, convert to CHF and withdraw the CHF to your HSBC CHF account. Also convert some £ to $ and buy BRK-B shares (US stock that pays no dividends, no fund management fees etc). For physical Gold, Tavex in London have some of the lowest spreads.

Thirds of each in three different currencies, and two-thirds literally in-hand assuming you withdraw CHF as hard cash. Somewhat like old Custodian banking instead of present day depository banking where what you deposit becomes the banks money, in effect you lending to the bank, often for low levels of interest rates, and where the loan may not be repaid (but where the present rules are that the state will cover such losses up to £85K (100K Euros), but also where there is a EU push to have such protections removed.

Historically, since 1958, 4.8% annualised real, 10.4% nominal

Image

Stocks can of course be liquidated in T+2 days.

Perhaps a candidate for those who may be concerned about the rise of Labour and potential wealth taxation. Such wealth taxes never tend to persist, sooner or later being observed to be unworkable. But potentially a punitive/unfair tax (confiscation). At any hint of such, sell BRK into CHY, transfer that to your bank and withdraw as hard cash, and vacation perhaps to Switzerland for a while, at least until the confiscationary era comes to a end.


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