Degsy67 wrote:Q. Why aren’t I simply investing in a globally diversified passive fund and allowing time and global capitalism determine the answers for me?
Ah, finally the agenda reveals itself. This poster looks suspiciously like the one who used to inhabit the HYP board and chase anyone sceptical away from that place. Now rather than pushing the HYP market timing / stock picking strategy, he favours buying
all the stocks low or high yield at whatever price they happen to be no matter how good or bad that price. Oh, and not correcting the mistake until years later. He evidently believes the market "owes" the investor an automatic fair share of the economy's profits without doing an ounce of work!
Well, some of us believe that to be profoundly wrong. For my part I believe every person is blessed with a range of innate and acquired skills they can apply to the matter of investing. They are also capable of learning about investing itself. The most important aspect of investing is the price at which you buy or sell an asset. The party who cares more about the price will almost always get the better deal in a trade. If you buy a tracker you have practically NO control of the price you pay for the assets therein. If you're going to do this, at least have some other sort of pricing strategy in mind, e.g. as a momentum play or some kind of hedge [I myself have recently traded FTSE index options and futures specifically as a value/momentum/volatility play on that specific market].
My comment on the general thrust of the "questions" in the answering post is "This is a discussion board, why shouldn't the OP put something out there for discussion? I doubt he'll be staking his life on the answers he gets."
As for the OPs questions:
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Will the Nasdaq correct soon? I doubt it. Tops are a process, bottoms are an event. Wait till everyone is getting sucked in.
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Noticed gold up 10%, last few months, investors getting ready [for a crash]? "Investors" seldom do anything specific like this. How could they? The very nature of a trade is that one (group of) investor(s) does one thing, while another does exactly the opposite. A better question is "Which sets of investors are getting ready?" e.g. is it the smart money or the dumb money?
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Or are we in a "new paradigm"? Again, who is "we" -- you and who else? I doubt you speak for me so you may as well exclude me from your "we". So who do you suppose is in a new paradigm? Speaking for myself markets are always the same, i.e. they are in a constant state of flux, the changes are often subtle and often not what people expect. If there is a paradigm shift it is not a sort of magical thing that donates a crash to permabears after a certain number of years of predicting them. A paradigm shift will be specific and have causes and limits and you'd do well to think what exactly you mean by such a thing. Is it literally a magic money machine for bears like you and not much more?
Personally I think we are in the early stages of a bull market. We are just a handful of years beyond an almost 60% market crash, did you not buy stocks at that time??? And if you did, you should really be enjoying this bull market and gradually selling down what you bought, not sitting in cash or other assets hoping yet another crash will come your way. If you don't like the Nasdaq hold something else, there is a wide choice of stocks so investors don't have to be obsessed with tech and whether or when it will correct.
GS