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Dogs of the FTSE?

Stocks and Shares ISA , Choosing funds for ISA's, risk factors for funds etc
Investment strategy discussions not dealt with elsewhere.
AJC5001
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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#193762

Postby AJC5001 » January 15th, 2019, 3:49 pm

kiloran wrote:I'll work on selecting the 2019 portfolio over the next few days

--kiloran


I'm looking forward to this appearing. How's it going?

Adrian

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#195878

Postby kiloran » January 23rd, 2019, 4:13 pm

AJC5001 wrote:
kiloran wrote:I'll work on selecting the 2019 portfolio over the next few days

--kiloran


I'm looking forward to this appearing. How's it going?

Adrian

Sorry, I forgot all about this. Here's the data I used


I selected the first 10 as usual, equal weighting. None of them seemed to fail my smell test

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#195885

Postby Lootman » January 23rd, 2019, 4:53 pm

kiloran wrote:I selected the first 10 as usual, equal weighting. None of them seemed to fail my smell test

I suspect then that we have different olfactory systems :D

I must admit that I rarely look at the dividend yields of my existing holdings and so was shocked to see so many ultra-high yields on many blue chip household names. That is very disturbing as it seem quite clear that such yields are not sustainable.

So either the market will scream upwards to normalise yields (the theory behind the "Dogs" presumably) or we are in for a raft of dividend cuts, share price declines and general all round misery. The paucity of dividend cover in many of these names nods me towards the latter.

Historically I have felt uncomfortable buying at anything north of a 5% yield. But to see some stalwarts of the FTSE on such stratospheric yields makes me worried, at least for the UK market.

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#195893

Postby kiloran » January 23rd, 2019, 5:11 pm

Lootman wrote:
kiloran wrote:I selected the first 10 as usual, equal weighting. None of them seemed to fail my smell test

I suspect then that we have different olfactory systems :D

I must admit that I rarely look at the dividend yields of my existing holdings and so was shocked to see so many ultra-high yields on many blue chip household names. That is very disturbing as it seem quite clear that such yields are not sustainable.

So either the market will scream upwards to normalise yields (the theory behind the "Dogs" presumably) or we are in for a raft of dividend cuts, share price declines and general all round misery. The paucity of dividend cover in many of these names nods me towards the latter.

Historically I have felt uncomfortable buying at anything north of a 5% yield. But to see some stalwarts of the FTSE on such stratospheric yields makes me worried, at least for the UK market.

I don't disagree, but it's a purely mechanical strategy with some fun money which has done very well for the past 6 years or so. It's probably due a bad year.
If Evraz made it into the top 10, I think its forecast yield of 12.3% would have smelt more than a bit dubious and I would have rejected it.

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#220744

Postby Bouleversee » May 10th, 2019, 7:20 pm

Raptor wrote:From TJH's thread. It seems Interactive Investor still does it.

Raptor.

That was 2017. What is the picture now?

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#274404

Postby kiloran » January 1st, 2020, 11:52 am

Here are my results for 2019

Stock          | Name                     | Total Return
AV. | Aviva | 18.3%
BATS | British American Tobacco | 34.8%
CNA | Centrica | -24.0%
DLG | Direct Line | 6.7%
IMB | Imperial Brands | -13.9%
MKS | Marks and Spencer | -9.9%
SLA | Standard Life Aberdeen | 34.6%
SSE | SSE | 45.6%
VOD | Vodafone | -3.9%
WPP | WPP | 27.3%
| |
Total | | 12.3%
| |
FTSE-A change | | 12.4%
FTSE100 change | | 10.3%

Capital gain was around 2.7%, the rest of the total return came from dividends.
A gain ahead of inflation, beat the FTSE100 (from which the shares are selected), and only fractionally behind the all-share. Beaten the FTSE100 every year, and since 2012 have only had negative returns in one year.
My original £20k is now £56.9k. What's not to like?

For 2020, I'm going with the following, again based on data from Sharecast. I've decided to ignore my smell test this year and go with the raw data.

Name                     |      | Historic Yield | Fcst yield | Hist rank | Fcst rank | Total rank
Imperial Brands | IMB | 11.1% | 11.1% | 2 | 2 | 4
Evraz | EVR | 7.5% | 12.8% | 4 | 1 | 5
BT Group | BT-A | 8.0% | 7.8% | 3 | 7 | 10
Aviva | AV. | 7.2% | 7.3% | 5 | 9 | 14
BHP Group | BHP | 5.7% | 10.1% | 14 | 3 | 17
HSBC Holdings | HSBC | 6.5% | 6.5% | 8 | 10 | 18
Standard Life Aberdeen | SLA | 6.6% | 6.5% | 7 | 12 | 19
Centrica | CNA | 13.4% | 5.5% | 1 | 21 | 22
BP | BP. | 6.5% | 6.4% | 9 | 13 | 22
British American Tobacco | BATS | 6.3% | 6.5% | 12 | 11 | 23


Will this be the year the tsunami wipes me out?

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372731

Postby kiloran » January 3rd, 2021, 4:37 pm

The 2020 results:

Stock          | Name                     | Change
AV. | Aviva | -22.2%
BATS | British American Tobacco | -10.8%
BHP | BHP Group | 11.9%
BP. | BP | -42.2%
BT.A | BT | -32.4%
CNA | Centrica | -12.4%
EVR | Evraz | 27.0%
HSBA | HSBC | -36.4%
IMB | Imperial Brands | -9.7%
SLA | Standard Life Aberdeen | -10.1%
| |
Total | Total | -16.1%
| |
FTSE-A change | | -12.6%
FTSE100 change | | -14.5%

The capital change was -18%, slightly mitigated by +1.9% from dividends. The worst year so far and the first time it's failed to beat the FTSE100. Can't complain, my original £20k is now £47.7k, an XIRR of 10.7%.

Haven't yet worked out the shares for 2021, the websites have not yet updated.

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372733

Postby Dod101 » January 3rd, 2021, 4:44 pm

Hi kiloran

The tsunami did not quite wipe you or me out but it certainly was pretty devastating. Looking at your picks in your post of 1 January 2020. the choices looked good (I held most of them so share your pain)

Dod

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372739

Postby kiloran » January 3rd, 2021, 4:53 pm

Dod101 wrote:Hi kiloran

The tsunami did not quite wipe you or me out but it certainly was pretty devastating. Looking at your picks in your post of 1 January 2020. the choices looked good (I held most of them so share your pain)

Dod

Fortunately no real pain, Dod. As explained in my original post, this DOGS thing is just a bit of fun. The choices in Jan 2020 were chosen totally mechanically, whether they looked good or not.
My main portfolio was just 1% down, so I'm happy with that.

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372787

Postby Dod101 » January 3rd, 2021, 6:14 pm

kiloran wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Hi kiloran

The tsunami did not quite wipe you or me out but it certainly was pretty devastating. Looking at your picks in your post of 1 January 2020. the choices looked good (I held most of them so share your pain)

Dod

Fortunately no real pain, Dod. As explained in my original post, this DOGS thing is just a bit of fun. The choices in Jan 2020 were chosen totally mechanically, whether they looked good or not.
My main portfolio was just 1% down, so I'm happy with that.

--kiloran


Well worth doing though. Thanks. I am down over the year by rather more than 1% more like 5%. On balance I made too many changes. Unlike me, but it just goes to show. I need to do a proper analysis but at least all the numbers are there now!

Dod

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372824

Postby PinkDalek » January 3rd, 2021, 8:12 pm

kiloran wrote:... As explained in my original post, this DOGS thing is just a bit of fun. The choices in Jan 2020 were chosen totally mechanically, whether they looked good or not.


Yes but with real money if I've understood correctly.

When you choose the new selection each year, do you sell the previous year's holdings to fund the new holdings or merely absorb them with your other portfolios?

Similarly, with the newly selected holdings, do you purchase in equalish tranches per holding?

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#372828

Postby kiloran » January 3rd, 2021, 8:27 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
kiloran wrote:... As explained in my original post, this DOGS thing is just a bit of fun. The choices in Jan 2020 were chosen totally mechanically, whether they looked good or not.


Yes but with real money if I've understood correctly.

When you choose the new selection each year, do you sell the previous year's holdings to fund the new holdings or merely absorb them with your other portfolios?

Similarly, with the newly selected holdings, do you purchase in equalish tranches per holding?

Yes, it's real money, PD.

It's with a separate broker from my main broker, so is completely ringfenced. Each year, I sell everything and then buy 10 equal tranches of the new shares. BUT..... if a new share is in the old portfolio (so carried over), I may just sell part, or buy additional shares to get to the required value.

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#426638

Postby kiloran » July 11th, 2021, 11:35 am

AJC5001 reminded me I had not published my selection for 2021. Here it is:

Name                          | EPIC | Latest Yield | Fcst Yield | Latest Rank | Fcst Rank | Total Rank
Evraz Plc | EVR | 11.7% | 8.9% | 4 | 3 | 7
Imperial Brands Plc | IMB | 9.0% | 8.8% | 9 | 4 | 13
British American Tobacco Plc | BATS | 7.8% | 8.1% | 11 | 6 | 17
Bp Plc | BP. | 11.9% | 6.4% | 3 | 17 | 20
Micro Focus International Plc | MCRO | 10.1% | 6.5% | 8 | 16 | 24
Investec Plc | INVP | 5.9% | 9.0% | 23 | 2 | 25
Phoenix Group Holdings Plc | PHNX | 6.7% | 6.9% | 16 | 10 | 26
Tp Icap Plc | TCAP | 7.1% | 6.7% | 13 | 14 | 27
Legal and General Group Plc | LGEN | 6.6% | 6.9% | 19 | 11 | 30
Vodafone Group Plc | VOD | 6.7% | 6.8% | 17 | 13 | 30


Selected on 04Jan21

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#469686

Postby kiloran » January 2nd, 2022, 11:58 am

Here are the results for 2021, and the plan for 2022

2021:
Stock                | Name                         | Capital Change | Total Return Change
EVR | Evraz Plc | 23.1% | 38.6%
IMB | Imperial Brands Plc | 3.5% | 12.4%
BATS | British American Tobacco Pl | -2.0% | 6.0%
BP. | Bp Plc | 26.7% | 32.6%
MCRO | Micro Focus International Plc | 1.0% | 5.3%
INVP | Investec Plc | 119.8% | 129.9%
PHNX | Phoenix Group Holdings Plc | -8.0% | -1.2%
TCAP | Tp Icap Plc | -36.3% | -23.9%
LGEN | Legal and General Group Plc | 14.0% | 20.8%
VOD | Vodafone Group Plc | -9.6% | -6.7%
| | |
Total | | 12.9% | 19.8%
| | |
FTSE100 change | | 14.1% |
FTSE100 Total Return | | | 18.4%

So, a bit behind on capital and a bit ahead on total return. At 20% for the year, I can't complain, even if there was no significant outperformance.
The original £10k in 2012 and an additional £10k in 2013 is now worth £58k, and only underformed the FTSE100 in one year

Plan for 2022, based on data from Sharecast:
Name                         | EPIC | Index   | Latest Yield | Fcst Yield | Latest Rank | Fcst Rank | Total Rank
Bhp Group Plc | BHP | FTSE100 | 10.2% | 9.8% | 1 | 3 | 4
Imperial Brands Plc | IMB | FTSE100 | 8.6% | 8.7% | 3 | 5 | 8
Persimmon Plc | PSN | FTSE100 | 8.2% | 8.2% | 4 | 7 | 11
British American Tobacco Plc | BATS | FTSE100 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 5 | 8 | 13
Phoenix Group Holdings Plc | PHNX | FTSE100 | 7.3% | 7.4% | 7 | 9 | 16
Polymetal International Plc | POLY | FTSE100 | 7.3% | 7.3% | 8 | 10 | 18
Vodafone Group Plc | VOD | FTSE100 | 6.7% | 6.8% | 11 | 11 | 22
Admiral Group Plc | ADM | FTSE100 | 4.5% | 8.6% | 19 | 6 | 25
Abrdn Plc | ABDN | FTSE100 | 6.1% | 6.1% | 13 | 14 | 27
Aviva Plc | AV. | FTSE100 | 6.6% | 5.4% | 12 | 15 | 27


--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#469700

Postby tjh290633 » January 2nd, 2022, 12:35 pm

kiloran wrote:Here are the results for 2021, and the plan for 2022

Thanks for that Kiloran.

Of the 2021 picks I hold 5, IMB, BATS, BP., LGEN and VOD.

For 2022 I hold 6, BHP, IMB, BATS, VOD, ADM and AV.

My worst 10 for 2021 were:

EPIC   Change    Yield    Rank
MARS 1.85% 0.00% 27
BATS 0.94% 7.90% 28
PHP -0.92% 4.07% 29
TATE -1.93% 4.69% 30
RKT -3.06% 2.75% 31
IGG -5.68% 5.27% 32
VOD -7.18% 6.83% 33
PSON -9.88% 3.27% 34
ULVR -10.17% 3.72% 35
RIO -10.57% 14.14% 36

Which only includes BATS and VOD. Not all are in the FTSE100, of course and I am going on the share price change in 2021. I guess that they are using forecast yields and ignoring "Specials", which would account for the absence of RIO from their list.

TJH

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#469702

Postby Bouleversee » January 2nd, 2022, 12:41 pm

Kiloran - I hold 7 of your next year's choices so good luck with that. You did very well last year but it would have been very different without your Investec star. I haven't yet worked out what my total p/fs have done over last year (need to check and adjust for cash withdrawn) but I doubt if the total return has gone up much at all.

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#469708

Postby kiloran » January 2nd, 2022, 1:10 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
kiloran wrote:Here are the results for 2021, and the plan for 2022

Thanks for that Kiloran.

Of the 2021 picks I hold 5, IMB, BATS, BP., LGEN and VOD.

For 2022 I hold 6, BHP, IMB, BATS, VOD, ADM and AV.

My worst 10 for 2021 were:

EPIC   Change    Yield    Rank
MARS 1.85% 0.00% 27
BATS 0.94% 7.90% 28
PHP -0.92% 4.07% 29
TATE -1.93% 4.69% 30
RKT -3.06% 2.75% 31
IGG -5.68% 5.27% 32
VOD -7.18% 6.83% 33
PSON -9.88% 3.27% 34
ULVR -10.17% 3.72% 35
RIO -10.57% 14.14% 36

Which only includes BATS and VOD. Not all are in the FTSE100, of course and I am going on the share price change in 2021. I guess that they are using forecast yields and ignoring "Specials", which would account for the absence of RIO from their list.

TJH

RIO was in my list for 2022 but at a forecast yield of 15.7% I decided it failed my smell test. As did Evraz at 20.8%. Apart from apparent outliers such as these, the process is purely mechanical (and dependent on Sharecast data :roll: )

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#469716

Postby Bouleversee » January 2nd, 2022, 2:00 pm

tjh290633 wrote:
kiloran wrote:Here are the results for 2021, and the plan for 2022

Thanks for that Kiloran.

Of the 2021 picks I hold 5, IMB, BATS, BP., LGEN and VOD.

For 2022 I hold 6, BHP, IMB, BATS, VOD, ADM and AV.

My worst 10 for 2021 were:

EPIC   Change    Yield    Rank
MARS 1.85% 0.00% 27
BATS 0.94% 7.90% 28
PHP -0.92% 4.07% 29
TATE -1.93% 4.69% 30
RKT -3.06% 2.75% 31
IGG -5.68% 5.27% 32
VOD -7.18% 6.83% 33
PSON -9.88% 3.27% 34
ULVR -10.17% 3.72% 35
RIO -10.57% 14.14% 36

Which only includes BATS and VOD. Not all are in the FTSE100, of course and I am going on the share price change in 2021. I guess that they are using forecast yields and ignoring "Specials", which would account for the absence of RIO from their list.

TJH


I hold 7 of those as well but held for some time so not relevant to this exercise. Will check whst the few I bought last year did.

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#562089

Postby kiloran » January 16th, 2023, 8:44 pm

Almost forgot to publish the end 2022 data. Not a great year (= bad year!) but I expect that from time to time.

Stock      | Date bought              | Capital Change | Total return change
ABDN | Abrdn | -23.0% | -17.0%
ADM | Admiral | -31.4% | -24.3%
AV. | Aviva | -20.3% | -14.9%
BATS | British American Tobacco | 18.6% | 24.1%
BHP | BHP Group | 15.4% | 27.3%
IMB | Imperial Brands | 26.1% | 34.6%
PHNX | Phoenix Group | -7.7% | -0.1%
POLY | Polymetal International | -80.9% | -80.9%
PSN | Persimmon | -58.1% | -50.1%
VOD | Vodafone | -26.1% | -20.4%
Total | | -18.7% |
| | |
Total | | -18.7% | -7.1%
| | |
FTSE100 | | 0.9% |
FTSE100 TR | | | 4.7%


We can blame Polymetal on Putin. Clever investors would probably have avoided this, but I just used the raw output of the mechanical strategy.
Still, can't complain, £4.2k down on the year, but my original £20k from 2013 is still worth £54.5k.

For the 2023 candidates, I changed methodology a little. Previously I used latest and forecast yields from Sharecast, but their data is rather flaky these days, so I've used current yield from London South East https://www.lse.co.uk/ and 2023 forecast yield from MarketScreener https://www.marketscreener.com/stock-ex ... ingdom-82/

My 2023 picks are:

EPIC | Name                     | London  | Mrt Scr  | London  | Mrt Scr   | Total 
| | SE Yld | 2023 Yld | SE Rank | 2023 Rank | Rank
MNG | Mandg | 9.68% | 10.90% | 2 | 1 | 3
PSN | Persimmon | 18.47% | 8.73% | 1 | 3 | 4
VOD | Vodafone Group | 8.86% | 9.48% | 3 | 2 | 5
BDEV | Barratt Developments | 8.01% | 8.71% | 6 | 4 | 10
TW. | Taylor Wimpey | 7.91% | 8.57% | 7 | 6 | 13
PHNX | Phoenix Group Holdings | 7.82% | 8.57% | 8 | 7 | 15
AV. | Aviva | 8.34% | 7.61% | 5 | 11 | 16
LGEN | Legal and General Group | 7.07% | 8.21% | 10 | 8 | 18
RIO | Rio Tinto | 8.43% | 6.24% | 4 | 14 | 18
BATS | British American Tobacco | 6.51% | 7.65% | 13 | 10 | 23


I just used the suggested shares as-is, no smell test or manual override of the data

--kiloran

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Re: Dogs of the FTSE?

#562093

Postby monabri » January 16th, 2023, 9:11 pm

Aviva...are you accounting for the cash return ? Methinks not. (Share consolidation )

Hargreaves reports a -22.6% TR over the last year. It also reckons the Av shareprice hit 600p in April 22 (not what I recall).

The London Stock Exchange reports a +8.2% TR over the last year. It has, I believe, accounted for the return correctly.

Price variations.

Source HL
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... ion/charts
Image

Source LSE
https://www.londonstockexchange.com/sto ... mpany-page
Image


( HL shareprice is 10x too high!)


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