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Is there any science in climate change?

Scientific discovery and discussion
Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27778

Postby Injunear » January 31st, 2017, 11:59 am

Ok, so lets tackle this one, because it's fairly simple to explain.

Incoming solar energy arrives at various wavelengths. Mostly visible light, UV and some infrared.

The visible light portion passes through CO2 to strike the surface. However the surface is not a perfect reflector (obvious really, the earth does not have a mirrored surface). Some visible light is reflected back out into space (typically blue/green wavelengths hence the "blue planet"), but a major fraction of that energy is absorbed by materials at the earths surface, causing those materials to warm. Warm materials re-radiate some of this energy. Crucially this re-radiated energy is longwave infrared, which can itself be absorbed, reflected and reemitted by the various atmospheric greenhouse gases particularly in the thicker lower levels of the atmosphere.

For the earth to remain at the same temperature, physics tells us that the solar energy input must equal the radiated energy emitted from the planet. However due to this blanket of greenhouse gases that are transparent to short wavelengths like visible and UV, but optically opaque to re-radiated infrared, this isn't the case. Thus of the energy striking the earth, there is a slight imbalance between energy in, and energy out causing a heating, particularly near the surface and lower layers of the atmosphere where the greenhouse gas blanket is thickest ( most CO2 molecules being near the surface due to atmospheric pressure.)


Sadly I think that your simple explanation is long on sophistry and short on science. Let's start with "visible light". There is nothing different about what we call "visible light" other than the fact that we have organs evolved to respond to certain limited parts of the electromagnetic spectrum.

Electromagnetic radiation from the sun reaches the planet in a broad spectrum, most of which we cannot see. Nor is what we see the the highest energy radiation. What we call UV is orders of magnitude higher frequency than infra-red so photons of that frequency carry much higher energy. The fact that we feel infra-red radiation does not mean that it is the highest energy. We do not feel UV radiation yet it causes DNA damage due to its higher energies.

All incident radiation to the planet is either reflected, absorbed and/or re-emitted to some degree. Energy is conserved. So photon energy from an absorbed photon is added to the atom. Electrons may be moved to a higher energy state and energy is fully absorbed or other particles are emitted, including possibly lower energy photons.

Radiation is not the same thing as heat, which is roughly speaking the state of energy of matter. Another definition of heat is the ability to transfer energy to other matter with a lower energy state.

It is correct to say that the temperature of the planet (or more correctly the atmosphere of the planet) is a consequence of energy balance. It is quite wrong to say that due to "greenhouse gas" the energy balance is permanently changed and this results in a warmer atmosphere. If the energy balance was constantly changed due to the presence of any "greenhouse" gas, the temperature of the atmosphere would constantly increase. We do not see this at all.

There is no need at all to create some magical properties for CO2 or any other gas to explain the fact that the atmosphere is warmer than outer space. When energy is added to the atmosphere is will absorb some and warm (retain energy). What is it that warms the atmosphere? The sun and energy emitted from the planet's surface, which can be geothermal or due to radiation absorption and emission.

What CO2 does have, like all matter is a propensity to absorb energy at certain photon energy levels more than at other, i.e. at certain radiation frequencies. This is not changed by the direction from which the radiation strikes the atoms in the CO2 molecule. if CO2 absorbs energy at the Infra red frequencies more than at others, this occurs whether the radiation is coming from the sun or whether it is coming from the planet's surface. By the same argument when CO2 radiates at the infra red frequencies it will do so in any direction. What this means is that for any given energy level of the CO2 molecules in the atmosphere at any given point, the ability to absorb incident energy from the sun or the planet surface is the same and the rate at which IR radiation is emitted from CO2 is the same regardless of whether energy is being transferred upwards, downwards or sideways towards other atoms.

Perhaps the idea is that CO2 is especially sensitive to absorbing IR and thus gets especially hot. But even at densities of 400PPM the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere cannot materially effect the temperature of the gas molecules that surround it. The hotter a molecule of CO2 the more likely it is that it will be emitting radiation and transferring energy to the matter that is cooler, so cooling (reducing the energy level within) the CO2 molecule. At .04% concentration the CO2 will be cooled long before the rest of the atmosphere has been much affected. Certainly the energy levels of the Nitrogen and Oxygen molecules are not more influenced by the tiny amount of CO2 in their mix compared with their own energy balance from incident electromagnetic radiation.

The reality is that there is never any static energy balance between the sun, the atmosphere and the planet - these three elements are in constant change, every day and every season as the levels of incident energy change. The temperatures of the "warm blanket" of CO2 are not constant either. As the seasonal balance of the amount of the amount of CO2 in the atmosphere and the energy balance changes then so too does the temperature.

What matters is the energy balance. CO2 does not create energy. CO2 does not create heat. CO2 does not radiate heat in one direction. There is only one thing that substantially influences the energy balance on a dynamic basis.

dspp
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27799

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2017, 12:47 pm

Injun,

Go and stand in a greenhouse - feel the warmth, often 30-40C in my greenhouse in Summer. Go and stand by the greenhouse - feel a bit cooler, often 15C in my garden in Summer. The difference is a 3mm thick pane of glass which is trivial compared with the 100km of atmosphere that is all the matter between you and the large nuclear reactor called the Sun. 3mm vs 100km. Very small change in stuff (matter) causes substantial change in temperature.

The extra CO2 in the atmosphere is like adding small panes of glass to the atmosphere. It doesn't take much extra CO2 to - over time - make a noticeable change to temperature.

regards, dspp

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27817

Postby XFool » January 31st, 2017, 1:37 pm

Injunear wrote:
That's perhaps not so widely known, but the level of CO2 in particular locations changes with the seasons.

Why anyone should be surprised by this escapes me. The natural carbon cycle of emission and sequestration of CO2 is controlled by, mostly, plant growth and death according to seasonal temperature variations. Now let's think for a moment - what is is that controls seasonal temperature variations of 10s of degrees - oh, yes, it's that big burning thing in the sky. When plants are growing in the northern hemisphere they are dying in the southern and vice versa. Of course there are variations in CO2 levels according to the seasons.

The sun causes huge seasonal and daily variations in temperature, but of course, as the "scientific consensus" knows, these very large and cyclical variations have nothing to do with climate, they are "noise", whereas the supposed 0.5deg C increase in "global temperature" over a 100 years is the really important "signal". The sun has no effect on warming or cooling or weather or CO2 levels ore anything at all, no sirree, that's all down to our motor cars. Of course it is.

Oh dear! I see you have missed every salient point within a range of at least one million miles!

Of course every single temperature variation you can mention at any location on Earth, hour by hour, diurnal, seasonal, year on year, is MUCH greater than the rate of mean global warming! That is the difficulty of measuring it and establishing the change.

A (very) rough analogy, the 2004 Boxing day tsunami caused a surface ocean wave of what height? I can't remember the exact figure - let's make one up, let's say 16" height. 16 inches? How does that compare to a big storm in the North Sea? Harmless! Irrelevant! Trivial! If you were offshore in a rowing boat you would hardly notice that, even in a gentle ocean swell. Yet a quarter of a million died. How come?

Because it was ALL THE WAY DOWN - and across a front of thousands of kilometres. The energy released by the original quake caused the planet to stagger and to 'ring' for an entire year. Likewise, the mini temperature increase involved in global warming isn't in your "back garden" or mine, it is, one way or another, in the Earth's entire global climate system - involving the oceans, the entire atmosphere, the entire land surface and the polar ice caps and regions.

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27866

Postby quelquod » January 31st, 2017, 3:46 pm

dspp wrote:Injun,

Go and stand in a greenhouse - feel the warmth, often 30-40C in my greenhouse in Summer. Go and stand by the greenhouse - feel a bit cooler, often 15C in my garden in Summer. The difference is a 3mm thick pane of glass which is trivial compared with the 100km of atmosphere that is all the matter between you and the large nuclear reactor called the sun...


A poor analogy.
The main reason that greenhouses (and cars and houses etc.) get warmer in sunlight than outside in the open is that air when warmed rises and cooler air replaces it. Outside this convection is considerable, often rising to thousands of feet. In a greenhouse it is restricted so the enclosed space heats more quickly and more effectively. The main effect of the glass is to keep the warmed air in. This isn't what CO2 does at all.

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27874

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2017, 4:06 pm

Nonsense. Try getting a suntan in a greenhouse ........

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27877

Postby quelquod » January 31st, 2017, 4:17 pm

XFool wrote:A (very) rough analogy, the 2004 Boxing day tsunami ...


These 'analogies' are becoming steadily wilder.

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27878

Postby quelquod » January 31st, 2017, 4:18 pm

dspp wrote:Nonsense. Try getting a suntan in a greenhouse ........

That wouldn't be anything to do with the fact that normal glass is opaque to UV I suppose?

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27887

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2017, 4:44 pm

Exactly .......

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27891

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2017, 5:01 pm

If any of you are finding words difficult to understand then I can recommend a small homework assignment - do p3 in problem set 1 from :

https://ocw.mit.edu/courses/sloan-schoo ... signments/

If you play around for a bit you will discover that if CO2 were not in the earth's atmosphere the earth would be about 33C colder (see*). At 33C colder avge temp would be about -20C, i.e. snowball earth with little or no liquid water and a high albedo reflecting incoming radiation straight back out. Without life on earth that is ultimately a stable state. At the other extreme with large amounts of CO2 or other greenhouse gases (inc water vapour of course) in the atmosphere you get runaway warming, no icecaps, and unbearably high temperatures for life as we know it - indeed it is not obvious in a true runaway situation that much liquid water would stay on the earth's surface for very long although flash floods of biblical sizes would be norm as you enter that state. The reality is that earth's atmosphere as we know it today exists as an unstable equilibrium between these two stable extremes. We are very unsure about how far we can peturb that equilibrium without forcing it outside its unstable equilibrium zone and out into either of those other two stable states, and we are playing with a system that has other moving parts in it that don't have any regard for humanity at all (solar cycles, orbital oscillations, etc). At the moment humans need the earth, the reverse is not true. Do you feel lucky ?

regards, dspp

* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon_di ... atmosphere

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27912

Postby quelquod » January 31st, 2017, 5:37 pm

As for most folk here, I don't find words difficult to understand dspp. Nor do I need help in trawling the Internet for random data.

If you had read and understood both of these articles and reflected on the myriad estimations and assumptions, and the difficulties of understanding and explaining events of the long past you'd probably be better able to discuss rather than regurgitate random texts without comment. You'd possibly also understand why learned men have actively researched the subject for some years without consensus rather than consigning it to the category of the Alf Garnett 'bleedin' obvious'. You might even understand why a greenhouse works as it does.

Doubt it though!

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27945

Postby dspp » January 31st, 2017, 6:54 pm

qq -
That set1 - p3 was anything but a random trawl. Worth reading the accompanying lecture notes. If you do it and then chuck in different atmospheres, albedos, then you can build a very simplified maths model and see what a difference tweaking CO2 up and down makes. People were asking for science after all. Just do the maths. Then pause and reflect - and yes I have done it for this simplified one, and bigger/more complex ones. There is a scientific consensus on this topic by-the-way, although there is always (and rightly) room for doubt to be explored and further work to be done as there is much we still do not know.

in3t -
I agree the instabilities in the climate change record are all too obvious. And the evolution of mankind uncannily correlated with relative stability. I cannot conceive of how mankind can sustain its existing population level if that level of instability recurs in the near future. Perhaps avoiding behaviour that might provoke it is a helpful first step, a sensible precaution even.

regards, dspp

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27951

Postby redsturgeon » January 31st, 2017, 7:02 pm

Moderator Message:
redsturgeon: I am finding this debate fascinating and don't pretend to know enough to come down firmly on either side so I am interested in learning as much as possible. I would however find it more palatable if you could try to turn the emotional level down a notch and carry on at the intellectual level.

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27969

Postby PrincessB » January 31st, 2017, 8:00 pm

There are no atmospheric gases which do not contribute to 'retaining heat'. What is questioned is whether the man-made proportion of CO2 is the driver of increasing temperatures.


I can throw in a couple of factoids which might assist a little - I'm not claiming to be any kind of expert, so I might be a bit out on most of the numbers.

As pointed out CO2 is a rather weak greenhouse gas and at one stage in prehistory CO2 levels were five times higher than the current level - I learned that at the Kew Gardens in one of the exhibits about ancient plants, so I'm guessing around the Jurassic period.

The downside of CO2 is its tendency as a not very reactive molecule to hang about in the atmosphere for ages.

The other major greenhouse gasses I know a little about are water vapour and methane both of which are far more powerful than CO2 but with a tendency to rain out or break apart over time.

As a personal point, I'm not that worried about the catastrophic effects of climate change over the next few decades - I am concerned about the consequences over the next couple of hundred years as there is usually a point in most things where it all goes wrong really quickly if you continue to test the limits of what a system will stand.

I would agree that doom scenarios can become as tiresome as can those who point out that absolutely nothing will happen if the atmosphere's CO2 level continues to rise and rise.

Some efforts to reduce emissions have turned out to be short-sighted enough to make those in charge look like idiots

I would cite the forcing of energy companies to bombard customers with free low energy CF lightbulbs and the banning of higher powered incandescents. They did this a couple of years before everyone started buying LED bulbs when they finally became good enough to be a desirable product.

By the same token, diesel cars are now in the firing line despite everyone being encouraged to buy one. Using the same argument as the CF bulbs, the trend is towards hybrids and suddenly 50% of the population have bought the wrong car engine and must be punished for listening to advice.

The elephant in the room, I have heard said, is not CO2 or methane or soil depletion/salination it is the endless growth in population. A billion people could drive V8s and have big houses, the seven and half billion we have according to current estimates is pushing the system a bit harder than makes sense.

B.

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#27995

Postby XFool » January 31st, 2017, 9:20 pm

For those genuinely interested in the subject and who want to access sensible information from a science oriented pov, rather than from any number of crank sites, Denier sites or politically motivated sites on the Internet, I would like to suggest this:

'The Discovery of Global Warming'

http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm

Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28119

Postby Injunear » February 1st, 2017, 1:00 pm

Some people have argued that Venus is evidence to support the AGW hypothesis.

This seems unlikely. Yes the atmosphere of Venus is 95% CO2 and yes it is very hot. On the other hand the atmosphere of Venus is more than twice as high as that of Earth, which means it is roughly twice as big volumetrically as that of Earth. It is also 93 times more dense. It also receives twice the radiative energy flux of Earth. This means that there is about 200 times the heat capacity of the atmosphere of Venus compared with that of the Earth. Given the higher radiative flux it is surprising that the surface temperature of Venus is is not hotter, say about 4000degC*, instead of the roughly 450degC it actually is.

The fact that it isn't is not due to some magic properties of the 0.04% CO2 in the Earth's (much smaller and less dense) atmosphere, but probably due to a range of other Venusian atmospheric influences such as the slow rate of rotation, the insulative qualities of the clouds and the range of wind variations from the top to the bottom of the atmosphere which would allow convective heating (of the cold side) and cooling (of the warm side) during the long Venusian day.

Of course we can ignore all this and dream up some magical properties of CO2 to account for it. But that's not very scientific.

*This is not very scientific!

Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28121

Postby Injunear » February 1st, 2017, 1:10 pm

I agree the instabilities in the climate change record are all too obvious. And the evolution of mankind uncannily correlated with relative stability. I cannot conceive of how mankind can sustain its existing population level if that level of instability recurs in the near future. Perhaps avoiding behaviour that might provoke it is a helpful first step, a sensible precaution even.

regards, dspp


This is progress of a sort perhaps. You agree that the there is clear evidence of great climate variability before industrialisation. However you do not explain why, if there were natural causes of both the instability and the stability (which we cannot have created), you assume that mankind must be "provoking" instability now.

Firstly, compared with the longer term record, we have not in any sense been in or been approaching a period of instability over the last 100 years, so from first principles, please can you explain:

1. Why is it necessary to create a hypothesis for mankind's influence on an instability for which there is no evidence?

2. Why, if we have no explanation for past natural causes of instability, even if we believe that instability is occurring, are we obliged to refuse to contemplate a natural cause?

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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28189

Postby dspp » February 1st, 2017, 5:48 pm

Injun,

I think you are misunderstanding some things.

1. I don't feel the need to refute the AGW hypothesis, you do. Over to you.

2. I've shown you the most basic first principle maths I know on this matter. I've even shown you the most simple homework assignment with that maths. Again over to you. (how did you get on by the way?)

3. I know that we - mankind - don't know everything there is to know about the historical record. I would be a very lengthy exercise if I were to write down everything that I don't know, even bigger than what mankind doesn't know. So to ask me to explain past instability is probably not the best place to start. However I am very grateful for anyone else who can explain past instability. (predicting instability in complex non-linear feedback systems has been a professional problem for me for 30-years and I still don't know the answer). Again over to you.

4. And the basic question that prompted me to get involved in this thread was the - perhaps mistaken belief - that there was a serious interest in the science of climate change. I'm not seeking to push AGW, I was simply trying answer that question in the simplest possible way. If you don't like the answer that's fine - I'm not trying to defend it.

5. And if you want to put forwards non-human natural causes then please do so. I'm very happy to observe.

regards, dspp

Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28469

Postby Injunear » February 2nd, 2017, 5:36 pm

I think you are misunderstanding some things.

That is always possible

1. I don't feel the need to refute the AGW hypothesis, you do. Over to you.


I thought you felt the need to defend the AGW hypothesis, I don't. Over to you - hence my question. Why do you need it in the first place?

2. I've shown you the most basic first principle maths I know on this matter.


I have yet to work through your homework - maybe I'll do yours if you do mine! - but as I'm sure you know the problem with inventing a bunch of equations and then making assumptions about the numbers to put into them is, well, its not science is it?

I would be a very lengthy exercise if I were to write down everything that I don't know,

I'm sure it would but then I didn't ask you to do this.

... predicting instability in complex non-linear feedback systems has been a professional problem for me for 30-years

This does surprise me slightly, since complex non-linear systems with feedback are inherently unstable I would have thought predicting this fact was quite straightforward? But maybe I'm misunderstanding some things, as I say, this is always possible.

Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28471

Postby Injunear » February 2nd, 2017, 5:37 pm

For those genuinely interested in the subject and who want to access sensible information from a science oriented pov, rather than from any number of crank sites, Denier sites or politically motivated sites on the Internet, I would like to suggest this:

'The Discovery of Global Warming'

http://history.aip.org/climate/index.htm


Looked like a real crank site to me ...

Injunear
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Re: Is there any science in climate change?

#28474

Postby Injunear » February 2nd, 2017, 5:47 pm

qq -
That set1 - p3


Have been looking at the homework: in the first part it states:

"Solar radiation
We assume that the amount of sunlight arriving at the earth is a constant value per square meter: the solar constant, F. Assume that F = 1378 W/m2. A fraction of the sunlight to the real earth reflects back to space: the Earth’s albedo, a, which is typically 30% or 0.3."

Here is the first wrong assumption - not all sun's energy contained in sunlight and the energy flux is nowhere near constant.

"3.2.Case 2: Earth with a layer of atmosphere
Now let us model the effect of an atmosphere containing greenhouse gases. We model this situation by considering the atmosphere to be a single layer that does not absorb any incoming solar radiation, but absorbs all infrared radiation coming up from the earth’s surface."

And here is the second - the magic CO2 blanket that knows which way is up and which is down!!


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