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What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

Scientific discovery and discussion
AsleepInYorkshire
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What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383214

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » February 2nd, 2021, 9:44 pm


88V8
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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383228

Postby 88V8 » February 2nd, 2021, 10:43 pm

How the earth will look when all the ice has melted.

It's not all bad - there'll be opportunities in SCUBA tourism of sunken cities.

V8

BellaHubby
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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383301

Postby BellaHubby » February 3rd, 2021, 10:34 am

It's self-correcting. As the sea moves inland, people will have a shorter distance to drive to get to the beach. Less driving = less global warming.

Obvious, innit :twisted:

bh

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383530

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 4th, 2021, 7:55 am

90% of all ice is in Antarctica. Last I checked it was experiencing a slight net gain. In any event it would take 1000's of years to melt.

Very difficult to get too worked up about ridiculous hyperbole whilst in the middle of a pandemic.

BoE

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383538

Postby GrahamPlatt » February 4th, 2021, 8:42 am

Truly surprised at your take on this BoE

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/en ... ia-and-its

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383574

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 4th, 2021, 10:05 am

GrahamPlatt wrote:Truly surprised at your take on this BoE

https://www.nationalgeographic.co.uk/en ... ia-and-its


That article is looking at one small part of one peninsula.

This gives a better overall picture;

http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/

BoE

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383620

Postby Midsmartin » February 4th, 2021, 12:11 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:90% of all ice is in Antarctica. Last I checked it was experiencing a slight net gain. In any event it would take 1000's of years to melt.

Very difficult to get too worked up about ridiculous hyperbole whilst in the middle of a pandemic.

BoE


Antarctic sea ice surface area increased a bit until about 2014 but has declined since then. Antarctic land ice volume is declining at an increasing and rapid rate. The total mass of ice has been declining steadily (note that ice volume may differ from the area of land covered in ice)

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

Of course it's melting land ice that increases sea level. Melting sea ice does not directly increase sea level, but open water absorbs a lot of heat where ice reflects it back into space. So melting sea ice creates a feedback effect.


https://skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm
https://theconversation.com/arctic-ice-loss-is-worrying-but-the-giant-stirring-in-the-south-could-be-even-worse-119822

The concern is that big chunks of antarctic ice are becoming unstable. The time to act is before they start collapsing, not afterwards.

And even if the worst most extreme effects may not happen for a few hundred years, does that absolve us of all responsibility to our descendents? I think it does not. If we knowingly allow things to occur that will make large areas of land uninhabitable in the future, I'm not very comfortable with that!

Current trends are closer to the worst-case scenarios than the best case scenarios that have previously been forecast.

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383633

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 4th, 2021, 12:46 pm

Midsmartin wrote:Antarctic sea ice surface area increased a bit until about 2014 but has declined since then. Antarctic land ice volume is declining at an increasing and rapid rate. The total mass of ice has been declining steadily (note that ice volume may differ from the area of land covered in ice)

https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/ice-sheets/

Of course it's melting land ice that increases sea level. Melting sea ice does not directly increase sea level, but open water absorbs a lot of heat where ice reflects it back into space. So melting sea ice creates a feedback effect.


https://skepticalscience.com/antarctica-gaining-ice.htm
https://theconversation.com/arctic-ice-loss-is-worrying-but-the-giant-stirring-in-the-south-could-be-even-worse-119822

The concern is that big chunks of antarctic ice are becoming unstable. The time to act is before they start collapsing, not afterwards.

And even if the worst most extreme effects may not happen for a few hundred years, does that absolve us of all responsibility to our descendents? I think it does not. If we knowingly allow things to occur that will make large areas of land uninhabitable in the future, I'm not very comfortable with that!

Current trends are closer to the worst-case scenarios than the best case scenarios that have previously been forecast.


-200Gt/yr out of a total land ice mass of 26.5mGt suggests more than a few hundred years, more like 1000's even with acceleration if it happens.

As for your other point, exactly what is our responsibility to our descendants? To try to preserve a World of 8bn+ people all wanting more? Or to allow population collapse to take us back to something more genuinely sustainable, whilst at the same time allowing other life on Earth to continue? There will be a lot of (human) misery either way.

All moot IMO in any case as I don't think we are doing anything significant to stop either climate change or any other consequence of our footprint. As long as all the effort goes into replacement rather than reduction then it aint gonna make a gnats difference to the trajectory we are on. Lot's of vested interests out there who would have you believe otherwise of course.

BoE

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383637

Postby Midsmartin » February 4th, 2021, 12:56 pm

I don't disagree there. (almost?) No mainstream politicians are willing to accept that population and economic growth are a problem. It's been hard enough to get them to understand climate change, even though the basic science has been there for many decades.

It seems unlikely that enough will be done until too late. I'd prefer to be trying. I'd probably be personally happier if I stopped reading newspapers and science and just flew off to Barbados (when I'm allowed). Perhaps if I didn't have children who are bumping up the population growth I'd find it easier to not care about it. We know civilisation must come to an end sometime for one reason or another. I suppose I'd just prefer it wasn't on my watch. Is that rational or just emotional?

https://steadystate.org

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383660

Postby 88V8 » February 4th, 2021, 2:48 pm

Midsmartin wrote: We know civilisation must come to an end sometime for one reason or another. I suppose I'd just prefer it wasn't on my watch.

More than forty years ago it was apparent to us that the world was overpopulated, and we resolved not to add to it.
So it is irritating to say the least when I see incontinent idiots like Bojo in charge - nice chap though he seems - and fiddling tokenistically with the symptoms of excessive population.

And yes, now we will go back to the same old same old obsession with 'growth'.

V8

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383702

Postby ursaminortaur » February 4th, 2021, 5:16 pm

88V8 wrote:
Midsmartin wrote: We know civilisation must come to an end sometime for one reason or another. I suppose I'd just prefer it wasn't on my watch.

More than forty years ago it was apparent to us that the world was overpopulated, and we resolved not to add to it.
So it is irritating to say the least when I see incontinent idiots like Bojo in charge - nice chap though he seems - and fiddling tokenistically with the symptoms of excessive population.

And yes, now we will go back to the same old same old obsession with 'growth'.

V8


Fertility rates in Europe have been below replacement levels for decades and those in most other countries are well on the way there as well. It is only a few countries mostly in Africa where large families are still the norm.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53409521

The fertility rate - the average number of children a woman gives birth to - is falling.

If the number falls below approximately 2.1, then the size of the population starts to fall.

In 1950, women were having an average of 4.7 children in their lifetime.

Researchers at the University of Washington's Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation showed the global fertility rate nearly halved to 2.4 in 2017 - and their study, published in the Lancet, projects it will fall below 1.7 by 2100.
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As a result, the researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
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Countries, including the UK, have used migration to boost their population and compensate for falling fertility rates.

However, this stops being the answer once nearly every country's population is shrinking.

"We will go from the period where it's a choice to open borders, or not, to frank competition for migrants, as there won't be enough," argues Prof Murray.


Note since at the end of the century the world-wide fertility rate is predicted to be 1.7 which is far below replacement levels then, until something changes, the world population would be expected to continue to fall from 8.8 billion after 2100. Assuming the human race doesn't become extinct then that fall will eventually have to stop but the level at which it will stabilise is anyones guess but will almost certainly be well below the 8.8 billion level.

Idiots like Boris Johnson are the exception rather than the rule and even with him and a few others swimming against the tide the fertility rate in the UK, and most developed countries, is below replacement levels. Hence unless you want to advocate wars to wipe out populations in Africa I can't see any reasonable way to tackle population growth more than is currently occurring.

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383737

Postby XFool » February 4th, 2021, 8:10 pm

Midsmartin wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:90% of all ice is in Antarctica. Last I checked it was experiencing a slight net gain. In any event it would take 1000's of years to melt.

Very difficult to get too worked up about ridiculous hyperbole whilst in the middle of a pandemic.

The concern is that big chunks of antarctic ice are becoming unstable. The time to act is before they start collapsing, not afterwards.

So rather like a pandemic then! :)

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383742

Postby Bubblesofearth » February 4th, 2021, 9:00 pm

ursaminortaur wrote:
Idiots like Boris Johnson are the exception rather than the rule and even with him and a few others swimming against the tide the fertility rate in the UK, and most developed countries, is below replacement levels. Hence unless you want to advocate wars to wipe out populations in Africa I can't see any reasonable way to tackle population growth more than is currently occurring.


The obsession with growth is economic not population based. Individuals want to consume more, Corporations want to sell more and Governments are elected on their ability to deliver economic growth. Efficiency gains are trumped by Jevons paradox.

How old is your smart phone or laptop or car? How big is your telly? How many trips abroad planned post-covid? Ever darn a sock?

8bn of us is more than enough to tip us into collapse when coupled with the imperative of economic growth.

BoE

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383772

Postby 88V8 » February 4th, 2021, 10:58 pm

Bubblesofearth wrote:How old is your smart phone or laptop or car? How big is your telly? How many trips abroad planned post-covid? Ever darn a sock?
8bn of us is more than enough to tip us into collapse when coupled with the imperative of economic growth.

Don't have one (but my Nokia 5110 is about nine yo) don't have one, fifty-seven.
Don't have one (the last one was 27" which was pretty decent in 1985)
None.
I'm wearing a pair I darned about twelve years ago.

Unfortunately it seems I am a little unusual.

V8

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Re: What the Earth would look like if all the ice melted tomorrow

#383793

Postby GoSeigen » February 5th, 2021, 6:45 am

88V8 wrote:
Bubblesofearth wrote:How old is your smart phone or laptop or car? How big is your telly? How many trips abroad planned post-covid? Ever darn a sock?
8bn of us is more than enough to tip us into collapse when coupled with the imperative of economic growth.

Don't have one (but my Nokia 5110 is about nine yo) don't have one, fifty-seven.
Don't have one (the last one was 27" which was pretty decent in 1985)
None.
I'm wearing a pair I darned about twelve years ago.

Unfortunately it seems I am a little unusual.

V8


Not that unusual actually:
-Using my first ever mobile phone (apart from work) inherited from my daughter for whom it was bought second hand and is an 8-9yo model.
-Just bought a 4 year-old car, so guilty as charged, previous was an '05 Skoda.
-Only briefly owned an old, probably 21-inch telly in the late 90s.
-Regularly buy new socks but also wear darned socks, not as old as V8's though!

But BoE's basic point is sound, V8 and I just having a bit of fun...

GS


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