The Lemon Fool

OK, this one’s not “science”, but it’s big news

https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds- ... -mid-2024/

GrahamPlatt wrote:OK, this one’s not “science”, but it’s big news

https://thedriven.io/2024/01/25/worlds- ... -mid-2024/

It is amazing how this technology has reduced in price while becoming safer.

For a typical UK house it looks likely that for at least 9 months of the year most of the domestic electricity can be generated by solar & stored in batteries, dramatically cutting the utility bills with over head covering in 5 years or less. Running am electric car as well with high mileage would eat into this, but for low mileage like school runs should also be possible.

I have no idea how any kind of other fuel can be competitive with this.

Regards

You would think to that 'Big solar' will be installing panels and batteries at this predicted price as quickly as possible.

Tedx wrote:You would think to that 'Big solar' will be installing panels and batteries at this predicted price as quickly as possible.

It interests me how ignorant most people are about solar despite there being many installation companies & attractive investment returns.

There is also a subgroup who distrust anyone & everything & won’t do anything new because they haven’t done it before.

Looking around the Uk there are lots of panels on roofs, but the numbers of empty roofs is far far greater.

One issue is that to connect anything more than 4 kW requires expensive new cables to the grid, so that exporting more than 4kW requires a much longer pay back time.

There is also the government factor. Had they spent for example all the money sent to Ukraine, on panels & batteries, we would be far closer to reaching zero emission goals than we are now, but …

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that to connect anything more than 4 kW requires expensive new cables to the grid, so that exporting more than 4kW requires a much longer pay back time.

Regards,

May I ask why? My house has a 100 amp mains fuse and our shower is rated at 9kw. So if that is OK for electricity flowing into the house, why won't the same cables allow the same to be exported?

Adrian

AJC5001 wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that to connect anything more than 4 kW requires expensive new cables to the grid, so that exporting more than 4kW requires a much longer pay back time.

Regards,

May I ask why? My house has a 100 amp mains fuse and our shower is rated at 9kw. So if that is OK for electricity flowing into the house, why won't the same cables allow the same to be exported?

Adrian

The argument given to my neighbour, who wanted to cover one of his barns with solar, was that the cables flowing to each house are rationed according to the likely needs of all houses connected to the same network. With your 9 kW shower, you are drawing about 36 amps (1 kw is approx 240 volts x 4 amps), so with 9 kW, that is about 36 amps. Your mains fuse is rated as a maximum current for likely appliances & a safety margin, so if you have your shower on plus a cooker + heaters, your contract with your supplier will limit the supply to below 100 amps & all the other houses will have similar limits. If you start exporting lots of power from a big solar array you with other users can potentially exceed what the whole system is rated for. My neighbour was told that a new dedicated supply cable would cost him £25k, so he declined.

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that to connect anything more than 4 kW requires expensive new cables to the grid, so that exporting more than 4kW requires a much longer pay back time.

odysseus2000 wrote:The argument given to my neighbour, who wanted to cover one of his barns with solar, was that the cables flowing to each house are rationed according to the likely needs of all houses connected to the same network. With your 9 kW shower, you are drawing about 36 amps (1 kw is approx 240 volts x 4 amps), so with 9 kW, that is about 36 amps. Your mains fuse is rated as a maximum current for likely appliances & a safety margin, so if you have your shower on plus a cooker + heaters, your contract with your supplier will limit the supply to below 100 amps & all the other houses will have similar limits. If you start exporting lots of power from a big solar array you with other users can potentially exceed what the whole system is rated for. My neighbour was told that a new dedicated supply cable would cost him £25k, so he declined.

Regards,

Not strictly true - there is a 3.68kW per phase limit on Export capacity of the inverter above which the installer must inform the DNO and get permission to install it. Our 13 panel 5.2kW system last year had a peak export of 1.8kW in a 30 min period, so it seems we were probably bouncing off that limit.

In Practice this reduces the payback of larger domestic installs, but a simple 8-10 panel array on a 'normal' roof will rarely be affected.

Te reason we never bothered at the old place is that by the time we finished the loft conversion the FIT had gone and the equipment was quite expensive. I suspect the initial cost is still quite offputting to people, especially those considering moving, and obviously of no use to renters.

odysseus2000 wrote:There is also the government factor. Had they spent for example all the money sent to Ukraine, on panels & batteries, we would be far closer to reaching zero emission goals than we are now, but …

We could have spent the £42Bn EU divorce bill or the similar amount HS2 cost on green initiatives, rather than the £12bn we've spent on Ukraine. Even the 9Bn wasted on the Olympics would have helped.

But it didn't happen.

DrFfybes wrote:We could have spent the £42Bn EU divorce bill or the similar amount HS2 cost on green initiatives, rather than the £12bn we've spent on Ukraine. Even the 9Bn wasted on the Olympics would have helped.

You missed out “Test & Trace” and the PPE waste. But hey, what’s a few £bn between friends.

We are drifting a little here, on the Science board. Might have to wind this in a bit.

DrFfybes wrote:

odysseus2000 wrote:One issue is that to connect anything more than 4 kW requires expensive new cables to the grid, so that exporting more than 4kW requires a much longer pay back time.

odysseus2000 wrote:The argument given to my neighbour, who wanted to cover one of his barns with solar, was that the cables flowing to each house are rationed according to the likely needs of all houses connected to the same network. With your 9 kW shower, you are drawing about 36 amps (1 kw is approx 240 volts x 4 amps), so with 9 kW, that is about 36 amps. Your mains fuse is rated as a maximum current for likely appliances & a safety margin, so if you have your shower on plus a cooker + heaters, your contract with your supplier will limit the supply to below 100 amps & all the other houses will have similar limits. If you start exporting lots of power from a big solar array you with other users can potentially exceed what the whole system is rated for. My neighbour was told that a new dedicated supply cable would cost him £25k, so he declined.

Regards,

Not strictly true - there is a 3.68kW per phase limit on Export capacity of the inverter above which the installer must inform the DNO and get permission to install it. Our 13 panel 5.2kW system last year had a peak export of 1.8kW in a 30 min period, so it seems we were probably bouncing off that limit.

In Practice this reduces the payback of larger domestic installs, but a simple 8-10 panel array on a 'normal' roof will rarely be affected.

Te reason we never bothered at the old place is that by the time we finished the loft conversion the FIT had gone and the equipment was quite expensive. I suspect the initial cost is still quite offputting to people, especially those considering moving, and obviously of no use to renters.

odysseus2000 wrote:There is also the government factor. Had they spent for example all the money sent to Ukraine, on panels & batteries, we would be far closer to reaching zero emission goals than we are now, but …

We could have spent the £42Bn EU divorce bill or the similar amount HS2 cost on green initiatives, rather than the £12bn we've spent on Ukraine. Even the 9Bn wasted on the Olympics would have helped.

But it didn't happen.

From the figures you quote for your output, it suggests that you have a limiter on your inverter:

https://support.solarquotes.com.au/hc/e ... the%20grid.

Limiters keep you within the limits set by the District Network Operator which is 3.68 kW per phase with no need to ask for permission, but to exceed this limit you need DNO permission, so that if you have access to the other two phases you could in principle export 3x3.68 kW, but most domestic houses are single phase supplied.

We could have a lot more grid power if these limits were raised by investing more in grid hardware, but there are many conflicting arguments as to what is the best use of capital. If the price of batteries keeps falling one argument is that excess day production can be stored and exported at night to charge electric cars, but at a lower payment to the home owner generator. It all gets rather messy & complicated with everyone wanting the government to make investments making the danger of self financing lower. As is if a home owner pays for a bigger grid connection he or she may find that the government then offers similar connections at reduced prices or free & it’s not clear how these considerations would be reflected in the property market.

If one is optimistic one can imagine some minister realizes that the uk can be substantially carbon neutral & energy independent with a spend that would pay a return for decades, & gets it done early in a parliament so that house holds start getting bank deposits before the next election. One might condemn this as buying votes, but when has that ever stopped ambitious politicians?

Anyhow the conditions for domestic electricity supply is the most positive it has ever been since Edison & GE fought over supply methods with Tesla’s AC, defeating Edison’s DC despite Edison’s intense efforts to wreck AC, showing how AC could execute people, elephants & similar.

Science & engineering have created an amazing potential to power our energy hungry lifestyles at low cost to us & low greenhouse gas emission. The more one thinks about this, the more amazing it is.

Regards,

Tedx wrote:You would think to that 'Big solar' will be installing panels and batteries at this predicted price as quickly as possible.

They are - there's something like 50GW of batteries being planned in the UK at the moment, of which about half has planning permission - the constraints are in the supply chain and grid connections.

At the grid level, the economics still don't really work for lithium beyond covering the evening peak.

As for solar, several countries are seeing wholesale electricity prices going close to zero on sunny afternoons, due to the amount of solar installed.

Hallucigenia wrote:

Tedx wrote:You would think to that 'Big solar' will be installing panels and batteries at this predicted price as quickly as possible.

As for solar, several countries are seeing wholesale electricity prices going close to zero on sunny afternoons, due to the amount of solar installed.

It's a great pity that UK winters are becoming and forecast to become, murky and damp. That really collapses solar output.

V8

Hallucigenia wrote:

Tedx wrote:You would think to that 'Big solar' will be installing panels and batteries at this predicted price as quickly as possible.

They are - there's something like 50GW of batteries being planned in the UK at the moment, of which about half has planning permission - the constraints are in the supply chain and grid connections.

At the grid level, the economics still don't really work for lithium beyond covering the evening peak.

As for solar, several countries are seeing wholesale electricity prices going close to zero on sunny afternoons, due to the amount of solar installed.

Yes, but the market has changed to where the grid companies don’t have the guaranteed profits they once relied upon & every domestic solar & same with batteries subtracts from their earnings, so they won’t invest in the grid, but they will save as fossil & nuclear are retired due to lack of demand. Consumers will soon realize that the grid is not going to be developed & will instead create their own home-grid: Solar + batteries, taking load off the grid which will increasingly focus towards the winter gap for wind.

As mentioned there are several forecasts that uk winters will become more dull & cloudy. Who is funding these predictions? 2024 is the earliest spring I have known, everything is growing earlier, my solar lights started working earlier those with additional self installed solar run much longer into the night.

Any body whose business is long term capital generation & refining plants, hydro-carbons etc is in huge financial trouble as this new Industrial Revolution gains speed & momentum. Best not to stand in the way of such things!

Regards,

odysseus2000 wrote:Yes, but the market has changed to where the grid companies don’t have the guaranteed profits they once relied upon & every domestic solar & same with batteries subtracts from their earnings, so they won’t invest in the grid, but they will save as fossil & nuclear are retired due to lack of demand. Consumers will soon realize that the grid is not going to be developed & will instead create their own home-grid: Solar + batteries, taking load off the grid which will increasingly focus towards the winter gap for wind.

As mentioned there are several forecasts that uk winters will become more dull & cloudy. Who is funding these predictions? 2024 is the earliest spring I have known, everything is growing earlier, my solar lights started working earlier those with additional self installed solar run much longer into the night.

Any body whose business is long term capital generation & refining plants, hydro-carbons etc is in huge financial trouble as this new Industrial Revolution gains speed & momentum. Best not to stand in the way of such things!

Regards,

You sound like you are confusing "grid companies" with "energy producers" - distribution is not left to generators

I don't think the ESO ( as the UK bods are currently labelled) care where the energy they shunt about comes from

odysseus2000 wrote:

DrFfybes wrote:Not strictly true - there is a 3.68kW per phase limit on Export capacity of the inverter above which the installer must inform the DNO and get permission to install it. Our 13 panel 5.2kW system last year had a peak export of 1.8kW in a 30 min period, so it seems we were probably bouncing off that limit.

In Practice this reduces the payback of larger domestic installs, but a simple 8-10 panel array on a 'normal' roof will rarely be affected.

From the figures you quote for your output, it suggests that you have a limiter on your inverter:

https://support.solarquotes.com.au/hc/e ... the%20grid.

Limiters keep you within the limits set by the District Network Operator which is 3.68 kW per phase with no need to ask for permission, but to exceed this limit you need DNO permission,

[...]

If the price of batteries keeps falling one argument is that excess day production can be stored and exported at night to charge electric cars, but at a lower payment to the home owner generator.
Regards,

I was discussing this with a friend with a 10kW system. It turns out for him it was as simple as asking the DNO and then changing the settings on the inverter.

As for the last part - the car batteries will soon be the major 'domestic' battery capacity - there was a table somewhere but I can't find it now but houses only have 5-10kWh domestic battery compared to multiples of that in their cars. Cars spend 95% of their time parked, so really what is needed is a whole host of low-mid capacity chargers to allow cars to mop up the excess, which they could then export when they get home. It requires an opposite mindset to the current (ho ho) one of charging overnight for the next day.

There are calls to make solar and battery compulsory on new builds, probably as appropriate would be to legislate a bidirectional car charge point on all properties with offroad parking.

Paul

DrFfybes wrote:As for the last part - the car batteries will soon be the major 'domestic' battery capacity - there was a table somewhere but I can't find it now but houses only have 5-10kWh domestic battery compared to multiples of that in their cars.

I have to confess that this was something I didn't originally consider. But if you step back from a position of "this is how it's always been done" it is an obvious solution... from a technical perspective at least. (It took a friend of mine involved in the transition to point out we could have more freedom than I first thought)
It does however muck up a good deal of golden gooses from the point of view of legacy generators - who don't actually like a market as much as they do the perception of one in a monopoly

DrFfybes wrote:As for the last part - the car batteries will soon be the major 'domestic' battery capacity - there was a table somewhere but I can't find it now but houses only have 5-10kWh domestic battery compared to multiples of that in their cars. Cars spend 95% of their time parked, so really what is needed is a whole host of low-mid capacity chargers to allow cars to mop up the excess, which they could then export when they get home. It requires an opposite mindset to the current (ho ho) one of charging overnight for the next day.

Octopus have just launched a vehicle-to-grid tariff which gives compatible cars free charging in return for being able to use the battery as grid storage :
https://octopus.energy/press/Cash-In-Gr ... rt-tariff/

If you say that there's around 30m cars and they currently average about 40kWh/car, then potentially you're looking at 1200GWh of storage at some point in 20+ years time. It's not completely cost-free, you're putting a lot of extra charge/discharge cycles on your car battery but they are getting better in that respect.

But it's the short-term storage that isn't the problem, the problem is fixing the economics to incentivise storage to see us through periods of dunkelflaute, which presumably will end up with variable sources of electricity paying a grid stability fee to support capacity payments for iron-air/compressed air/hydrogen that provide the <5% of total electricity needed from long-term storage.

Hallucigenia wrote:

DrFfybes wrote:As for the last part - the car batteries will soon be the major 'domestic' battery capacity - there was a table somewhere but I can't find it now but houses only have 5-10kWh domestic battery compared to multiples of that in their cars. Cars spend 95% of their time parked, so really what is needed is a whole host of low-mid capacity chargers to allow cars to mop up the excess, which they could then export when they get home. It requires an opposite mindset to the current (ho ho) one of charging overnight for the next day.

Octopus have just launched a vehicle-to-grid tariff which gives compatible cars free charging in return for being able to use the battery as grid storage :
https://octopus.energy/press/Cash-In-Gr ... rt-tariff/

If you say that there's around 30m cars and they currently average about 40kWh/car, then potentially you're looking at 1200GWh of storage at some point in 20+ years time. It's not completely cost-free, you're putting a lot of extra charge/discharge cycles on your car battery but they are getting better in that respect.

But it's the short-term storage that isn't the problem, the problem is fixing the economics to incentivise storage to see us through periods of dunkelflaute, which presumably will end up with variable sources of electricity paying a grid stability fee to support capacity payments for iron-air/compressed air/hydrogen that provide the <5% of total electricity needed from long-term storage.

I'm not disagreeing but can you define the "problem"?
As in the thing that short term storage isn't a solution to?

I often see engineering solutions to "problems" disregarded because there's a fantasy market

Hallucigenia wrote:Octopus have just launched a vehicle-to-grid tariff which gives compatible cars free charging in return for being able to use the battery as grid storage
[...]
But it's the short-term storage that isn't the problem, the problem is fixing the economics to incentivise storage to see us through periods of dunkelflaute,

Wow - didn't realise vehicle to grid was actually possible yet, things move quickly.
[...]
A few possible solutions, neither cheap (but then what is?) nor quick.

1) Small (or large) Nuclear for a baseline - at least the small ones can spool up relatively quickly.
2) International distribution, like the X links 3.6GW one proposed to Morocco.
3) Large amounts of overcapacity, but that would seriously mess with the current Financing.

Thread convergence - on the HGEN thread I said I'm avoiding investing in 'Green' tech and generation companies/funds. Things just change so quickly that today's 'no brainer' is next year's 'obsolete technology'. A step in tidal technology could render much of nuclear obsolete.

Paul

servodude wrote:

Hallucigenia wrote:

But it's the short-term storage that isn't the problem,

I'm not disagreeing but can you define the "problem"?
As in the thing that short term storage isn't a solution to?

I often see engineering solutions to "problems" disregarded because there's a fantasy market

I think that was simply badly phrased and (given the following comment about dunkelflaute) Hal meant to say “It isn’t the short term storage that’s the problem”.

GrahamPlatt wrote:

servodude wrote:
I'm not disagreeing but can you define the "problem"?
As in the thing that short term storage isn't a solution to?

I often see engineering solutions to "problems" disregarded because there's a fantasy market

I think that was simply badly phrased and (given the following comment about dunkelflaute) Hal meant to say “It isn’t the short term storage that’s the problem”.

Ah .. ok rereading it that way I'm totally on board