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Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Mike4
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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308194

Postby Mike4 » May 13th, 2020, 10:45 am

servodude wrote:To be honest my first thought when I see someone in a mask is to give them a wider berth than usual


This was definitely the case in Waitrose the other day when I wore my home-made mask in there. Other shoppers swerved away from me sharply as I walked around the shop, when I'm sure whey would not have otherwise.

It was like walking around with my own personal force field keeping everyone at a safe distance. It turned the whole supermarket experience from being quite stressful into almost a pleasure. I highly recommend wearing a mask in public if only to benefit from this effect.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308204

Postby tikunetih » May 13th, 2020, 11:22 am

Mike4 wrote:It was like walking around with my own personal force field keeping everyone at a safe distance. It turned the whole supermarket experience from being quite stressful into almost a pleasure. I highly recommend wearing a mask in public if only to benefit from this effect.


Mike, I concur: viewtopic.php?p=295153#p295153
;)

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308268

Postby Lootman » May 13th, 2020, 2:07 pm

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:To be honest my first thought when I see someone in a mask is to give them a wider berth than usual

This was definitely the case in Waitrose the other day when I wore my home-made mask in there. Other shoppers swerved away from me sharply as I walked around the shop, when I'm sure whey would not have otherwise.

It was like walking around with my own personal force field keeping everyone at a safe distance.

You can achieve the same effect by not showering for a few days :lol:

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308340

Postby Lootman » May 13th, 2020, 5:05 pm

servodude wrote:
Lootman wrote:my N99 mask has a one-way valve. I breathe in through the valve but exhale elsewhere. Clearly that mask is designed to help the wearer and not others, although of course any barrier is better than nothing.

It should be the other way around:
- the air you breathe in should be being filtered (the one I use for my commute ride during bushfire season has a replaceable carbon filter)
- the valve is to assist expiration

As a result of this "mask valves" are less helpful at protecting the herd

It depends on the mask. Some are designed for working in smokey or dusty conditions, and there clearly the filtration should be on the inhalaton. Exhalation doesn't matter.

If you use a work mask like that you are protecting yourself but not others. Whilst the government wants us wearing masks to protect others, in reality most people wear them to protect themselves.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308449

Postby Itsallaguess » May 13th, 2020, 9:33 pm

First coronavirus antibody test given approval by Public Health England -

One hundred per cent accuracy of test developed by Swiss firm Roche confirmed by experts at PHE's Porton Down facility on May 7

A coronavirus antibody test kit has been approved by Public Health England (PHE), The Telegraph has learned, in a breakthrough that could be key to easing the UK's lockdown restrictions. The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health is in negotiations with the Swiss healthcare company Roche to buy millions of the kits.

The accuracy of the test was given approval by experts at PHE’s Porton Down facility last week. On Wednesday night, Roche said it stood ready to provide hundreds of thousands of laboratory-based tests to the NHS each week. A Government source said: "We want to get our hands on as many of these as possible."

The development of an accurate antibody test has long been seen as key to helping Britain get back to work, with Boris Johnson having previously described such tests as "game-changing"...


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public/

Baby steps...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308455

Postby Mike4 » May 13th, 2020, 9:40 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:First coronavirus antibody test given approval by Public Health England -

One hundred per cent accuracy of test developed by Swiss firm Roche confirmed by experts at PHE's Porton Down facility on May 7

A coronavirus antibody test kit has been approved by Public Health England (PHE), The Telegraph has learned, in a breakthrough that could be key to easing the UK's lockdown restrictions. The Telegraph understands that the Department of Health is in negotiations with the Swiss healthcare company Roche to buy millions of the kits.

The accuracy of the test was given approval by experts at PHE’s Porton Down facility last week. On Wednesday night, Roche said it stood ready to provide hundreds of thousands of laboratory-based tests to the NHS each week. A Government source said: "We want to get our hands on as many of these as possible."

The development of an accurate antibody test has long been seen as key to helping Britain get back to work, with Boris Johnson having previously described such tests as "game-changing"...


https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/05/13/exclusive-first-coronavirus-antibody-test-given-approval-public/

Baby steps...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess


This really is the most excellent of news. A good quantity for the gov't to order would seem to be 68,000,000, otherwise we'll be straight endless debate about into how to randomly select a representative sample of the population to test.

Let's hope they don't get lost on route...

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308510

Postby servodude » May 14th, 2020, 12:53 am

Lootman wrote:
servodude wrote:
Lootman wrote:my N99 mask has a one-way valve. I breathe in through the valve but exhale elsewhere. Clearly that mask is designed to help the wearer and not others, although of course any barrier is better than nothing.

It should be the other way around:
- the air you breathe in should be being filtered (the one I use for my commute ride during bushfire season has a replaceable carbon filter)
- the valve is to assist expiration

As a result of this "mask valves" are less helpful at protecting the herd

It depends on the mask. Some are designed for working in smokey or dusty conditions, and there clearly the filtration should be on the inhalaton. Exhalation doesn't matter.


Have you really got an N99 mask that only filters on the way out? :o

As you point out these masks are normally work to protect the wearer
- and one that worked that way (where you breathe in through the valve letting the air in freely) would not

- sd
Last edited by servodude on May 14th, 2020, 1:01 am, edited 1 time in total.

servodude
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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308512

Postby servodude » May 14th, 2020, 12:59 am

Really great to see the Roche tests approved so quickly!
- it was only 11 days ago I saw their results announced: https://www.roche.com/media/releases/me ... -05-03.htm

I love a bit of positive news

stay well
- sd

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#308551

Postby redsturgeon » May 14th, 2020, 8:58 am

I worked a lot with Roche over the years. Fine company. Well done them.

John

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313106

Postby csearle » May 28th, 2020, 5:31 pm

The other day in a remote car park on Ashdown Forest I was sitting on a box two metres away from my workmate drinking a beer after work. A guy wandered up spouting a load of tosh about CoVid-19 all being a hoax and the lock-down as being unnecessary (I believe he thought he might have found some kindred spirits). Frankly we were pleased to see the back of him.

Anyway it turns out that in one thing he may well have been kinda right. According to Sunetra Gupta, Professor of Theoretical Epidemiology at the University of Oxford the progress of the disease, outside of a few specialist settings, e.g. care homes, is independent of the lock-down measures.

Her argument in a nutshell is that back in March the clearly seen exponential rise in mortality could be explained by a range of scenarios between two extremes. At one extreme the disease has a high mortality rate and, without social distancing, lock-downs, etc. would claim hundreds of thousands of lives. At the other extreme the mortality was much lower, the disease had arrived on these shores about a month earlier, and many fewer people would ultimately die, whatever the measures. Importantly in both cases and all in between the same mortality curve would have been predicted using the SIR* epidemic differential equation model.

So just in case the mortality rate was at the higher end of the spectrum the lock down was justified.

Since then evidence has emerged from numerous European countries with a broad range of different lock-down strategies, including none at all, which shows that the mortality curves follow "like clockwork" that of the model. The various lock-downs made no significant difference outside of shielding the most vulnerable.

So the upshot of this is that providing we shield our most vulnerable until scientific discoveries permit some kind of medical treatment of the disease the lock-down probably has little effect on anything by now. So we might as well get ourselves up and running again!

If you haven't seen it before this truly excellent 30 minute interview is I feel well worth the investment in your time.

Chris
*Susceptible, Infected, Recovered

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313152

Postby GrahamPlatt » May 28th, 2020, 9:08 pm

csearle wrote:If you haven't seen it before this truly excellent 30 minute interview is I feel well worth the investment in your time


Rather difficult to harmonise her arguments over
a) “background” immunity (experience of / immunity to other corona viruses) and higher death rates in the elderly
b) demographic differences between countries being responsible for IFR variance

OK, the highest death rates occur in the elderly. Yet surely, they’ll have the highest previously exposure to a variety coronaviruses. So death rates seem to be lower in African countries (implication, because they’re a younger population)... so explain e.g. Bulgaria (very elderly population, low death rate).

Yes, the antibody tests may well be negative in some individuals who are already recovered - through T cell / other immune response without them having generated an antibody response.

The R rate is principally dependent on how many people are immune”... errr, not at the outset. Some disease are just naturally more infectious than others. This is why a disease with an “infectivity potential” of 1->2 requires 50% herd immunity to reduce R0 to 1, whilst something e.g. measles with a 1->15 requires 95% (rough figures). Yes, as the infectious agent “consumes” its target, R0 must fall in that population, but that doesn’t make it a useless concept, nor something to ignore.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313154

Postby csearle » May 28th, 2020, 9:17 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:
csearle wrote:If you haven't seen it before this truly excellent 30 minute interview is I feel well worth the investment in your time


Rather difficult to harmonise her arguments over
a) “background” immunity (experience of / immunity to other corona viruses) and higher death rates in the elderly
b) demographic differences between countries being responsible for IFR variance

OK, the highest death rates occur in the elderly. Yet surely, they’ll have the highest previously exposure to a variety coronaviruses. So death rates seem to be lower in African countries (implication, because they’re a younger population)... so explain e.g. Bulgaria (very elderly population, low death rate).

Yes, the antibody tests may well be negative in some individuals who are already recovered - through T cell / other immune response without them having generated an antibody response.

The R rate is principally dependent on how many people are immune”... errr, not at the outset. Some disease are just naturally more infectious than others. This is why a disease with an “infectivity potential” of 1->2 requires 50% herd immunity to reduce R0 to 1, whilst something e.g. measles with a 1->15 requires 95% (rough figures). Yes, as the infectious agent “consumes” its target, R0 must fall in that population, but that doesn’t make it a useless concept, nor something to ignore.
Thank you. I am afraid that I am not knowledgeable enough to really understand you points, so will obviously not comment upon them, I hope though that others will agree/disagree and I will follow the discussion with interest.

Cheers,
Chris

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313216

Postby redsturgeon » May 29th, 2020, 6:17 am

Unfortunately I cannot see beyond her range of figures for IFR, she is quoted as suggesting an IFR in the range of 0.1% to 0.01%.

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/blo ... -covid-19/

If we look at what that lower rate means it is that one death will occur for every 10,000 infections.

If we take the UK as a whole we have the potential for 68 million infections. One in 10,000 deaths will give us maximum deaths of 6800! Clearly wrong.

Looked at another way 0.01% IFR gives 100 deaths per million. More than a dozen countries are already way over this level of deaths and somewhere like New York shows over 1500 deaths per million.

Even her higher figure gives us one death per thousand, a maximum of 68,000 deaths. Thus our current deaths would suggest over 55% infection rate. This is way out of line with current testing resuits suggesting more like one tenth of this number.

For these reasons I find it difficult to believe her ideas, unless I have totally missed her point.

John

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313358

Postby sg31 » May 29th, 2020, 1:10 pm

I've seen any number of experts suggest various reasons why the lockdown was pointless. I suppose we will have to wait until the history of this pandemic is written in a few years time. It is still incredibly early in the game and so much is not known about the virus, the immunity or just about everything else. Anyone suggesting they have the answer is either a genius,mistaken or possibly a charlatan.

At the time the lockdown was imposed we had seen the illness kill many in China until the authorities there imposed a lockdown, we'd seen Italy get into a situation where their health service was past the point of collapse, they too imposed a lockdown and started to halt the slide. Spain were in trouble and the situation was deteriorating here. A lockdown was the obvious step. As I remember it the Government were behind the curve all the way, People were already starting to work from home, avoid public transport and the Football league shut down as players became ill. The Government enforced what large numbers of people were already deciding for themselves.

I think we are heading for another serious upsurge in infections, can I prove it? No. Infact I hope I'm wrong, I want my life back. I just see people in this area completely ignoring social isolation, I've only seen one person wearing a mask. Once the government made the slightest easing of restrictions people were fed up, they were bored with the restrictions and the attitude seemed to be, that's it we can all go back to normal now.

I don't see why SARS-CoV-19 would now stop infecting people, by the Governments figures only 7% of people have antibodies, there's little sign of the masses of asympomatic infections we were told existed, we don't even know how long the antibodies will provide immunity.

For now I will carry on living a quiet life and see which way the wind blows. I expect that by late June we will see hospital admissions increasing again and a week or two later deaths will increase. I can wait a month to see how things progress.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313842

Postby look » May 31st, 2020, 12:23 am

Is this the rescue for chloroquine and hidroxichloroquine?

it's in portuguese. You can translate by google.

https://brasil.elpais.com/ciencia/2020- ... mundo.html

the news is that the study made in UK (that concluded both were useless) is full of errors.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313862

Postby redsturgeon » May 31st, 2020, 8:21 am

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Looking at the data from across the world, the UK seems to be the only country with no data recorded here for total recovered and active cases. Anyone know why?

John

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313868

Postby servodude » May 31st, 2020, 9:08 am

redsturgeon wrote:https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Looking at the data from across the world, the UK seems to be the only country with no data recorded here for total recovered and active cases. Anyone know why?

John


I think it's as simple as they don't record it
- if you get a confirmed diagnosis the UK guidelines are you isolate until you don't have symptoms ( or you succumb ) there's no "exit"

I know that in here in Australia (Vic) you need a negative test to be "released" back in to the population; in addition my employer stipulates any symptoms (or possible contact) require isolation unless there's a negative test result (to show they're something lesser)
It's not easy to do that if you're racking up thousands of positive tests - it might change when things calm down
-sd

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313869

Postby johnhemming » May 31st, 2020, 9:14 am

https://twitter.com/BallouxFrancois/sta ... 4143087628

Recent preprint reporting that 24/24 (100%) people form Singapore infected by SARS-1 in 2003 have pre-existing T-cell immunity against #SARSCoV2, but more surprisingly 9/18 (50%) with no exposure to SARS-1 also possess T-cells targeting #SARSCoV2.


https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101 ... 1.full.pdf

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#313897

Postby Mike4 » May 31st, 2020, 11:19 am

look wrote:Is this the rescue for chloroquine and hidroxichloroquine?

it's in portuguese. You can translate by google.

https://brasil.elpais.com/ciencia/2020- ... mundo.html

the news is that the study made in UK (that concluded both were useless) is full of errors.


Never mind the Portuguese, here is a convincing take-apart in English of the Lancet study, by Dr Martenson.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uggOJcZBFoI

Fast forward to 15 mins 30 seconds to find the start.

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Re: Coronavirus Health - Health and Wellbeing

#315908

Postby redsturgeon » June 6th, 2020, 8:32 pm

Despite the Lancet study problems this is the definitive study from Oxford

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... ial-chiefs

It says it is not effective in Covid 19.

John


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