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the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

flyer61
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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235126

Postby flyer61 » July 9th, 2019, 11:34 am

The shorts seem to be right on not much turnover.....

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235220

Postby BusyBumbleBee » July 9th, 2019, 2:55 pm

flyer61 wrote:The shorts seem to be right on not much turnover.....
and, damn it, righter still today!

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235326

Postby jonesa1 » July 9th, 2019, 8:19 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote: and, damn it, righter still today!


heck of a yield though, assuming the business can maintain it

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235606

Postby flyer61 » July 10th, 2019, 4:52 pm

A couple of biggish transactions at the days end. I wonder if the MM got a whiff and marked down in anticipation? Maybe the big picture has passed me by and this is a dog.....a reassuring statement given the near 30% drop in 3 months would be nice...

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235630

Postby monabri » July 10th, 2019, 5:31 pm

[quote="mattman74"

Have a look round your local neighbourhood. What is happening to the pubs that have shut down?

Matt[/quote]

2 local pubs have closed. On one site they've built ( no hanging around) about 15 or so boxes/ houses. Strangely the other pub sits boarded up and gradually being vandalised and falling apart...a complete eyesore.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235661

Postby PrefInvestor » July 10th, 2019, 6:38 pm

flyer61 wrote:A couple of biggish transactions at the days end.


A couple !. From what I could see over 50 million shares were sold after the close in quite a few different transactions, but mostly trade type PRIC = negotiated trades ?. From previous experience though this sort of out of hours activity often means nothing, just have to wait and see in the morning.

Could these be Woodford finally exiting I wonder ?. No more Holdings RNSs today I note.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235843

Postby PrefInvestor » July 11th, 2019, 11:21 am

Hi All, Well no new RNSs today to accompany the mass of trade last evening (10/7) after the bell. Took the time this morning to download the trades from the sharesmagazine site (the only place I know where you can download previous days trading data for free ?) and added them up, results follow:-

Code: Select all

Jul 10 2019, 16:50   165   8,000,000   165.2   166   Sell   £13,200,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:51   165   3,851,000   165.2   166   Sell   £6,354,150.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:51   165   3,300,000   165.2   166   Sell   £5,445,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:52   165   3,000,000   165.2   166   Sell   £4,950,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:52   165   3,000,000   165.2   166   Sell   £4,950,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:52   165   1,600,000   165.2   166   Sell   £2,640,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:52   165   1,500,000   165.2   166   Sell   £2,475,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:53   165   1,000,000   165.2   166   Sell   £1,650,000.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:49   165   745,000   165.2   166   Sell   £1,229,250.00   O
Jul 10 2019, 17:02   165.2 716,113   165      166   Sell   £1,183,004.35   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:49   165   507,855   165.2   166   Sell   £837,960.75   O
Jul 10 2019, 16:53   165   487,076   165.2   166   Sell   £803,675.40   O
Total      27,707,044               12


Oh I DO wish it was easier to post images on this site !.

Anyway total comes to 27 million by my reckoning, though I'm SURE when I looked on the LSE site on the evening of the 10/7 that there were more trades than this. But of course sadly I cant check that again now.

Looking at info on the big institutional holders from NRRs own site today we have:-

Code: Select all

Invesco   79,336,992
Woodford Investment Management   36,181,907
BlackRock   13,789,054


So the question is who was selling ?. When I thought it was 50 million (yesterday) then it could have been WIM & Blackrock, but if the figure is 27 million then its anybodys guess - could be anyone, but likely a big chunk of WIM is my guess. Must be an RNS (or two)on this at some point though.

Anyway the shares are doing very nicely today, up about 4% and reversing yesterdays losses. Mostly small trades by the look of it, my guess its the retail investors piling in thinking that Woodford has left the building ?.

We shall see I guess.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#235970

Postby BusyBumbleBee » July 11th, 2019, 6:16 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:Hi All, Well no new RNSs today to accompany the mass of trade last evening (10/7) after the bell. Took the time this morning to download the trades from the shares magazine site (the only place I know where you can download previous days trading data for free ?) Pref

You might like to try this link https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&b ... set=recent

On that page you should be able to download all the day's trades with the "Download Trade Data" button top (ish) right.

You can go back years on this site for free.

with kind regards - BBB

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236035

Postby PrefInvestor » July 11th, 2019, 9:53 pm

Hi BBB, That’s a useful piece of information thanks, I have an account on ADVFN but I don’t often use it, really don’t like the board format. I do read it occasionally though as there are good posters there for some stocks.

Looks like I was right and the list of NRR sell trades after the bell on 10/7 was quite a lot larger than showed up on the sharesmagazine site. I will import the ADVFN data into a spreadsheet and calculate the numbers again, probably tomorrow (Friday) now. However in truth I suspect we may see an RNS or two tomorrow ?.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236038

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 10:11 pm

I see the short interest made new highs from January 2019 to July 2019 on fairly steady increments. . 4.8% to around 8% approx

. Sort of in float now at 7.5% range

Given its now at the July 2012 low price (lowest ever price)
maybe need to see price hold now and short interest drop below 5% soon to have any form of recovery?

Be detrimental If above doesn't happen soon really

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236039

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 10:28 pm

SentimentRules wrote:I see the short interest made new highs from January 2019 to July 2019 on fairly steady increments. . 4.8% to around 8% approx

. Sort of in float now at 7.5% range

Given its now at the July 2012 low price (lowest ever price)
maybe need to see price hold now and short interest drop below 5% soon to have any form of recovery?

Be detrimental If above doesn't happen soon really


It's just when you consider its practically the inverse of the norms like XLRE etc, which are rampant a long while, hard to imagine this having recovery power in long or short real estate sector periods.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236045

Postby SentimentRules » July 11th, 2019, 11:07 pm

Wow this dividend it's ridiculous. Carillion job on the fall.

The BOD must be having some party.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236095

Postby PrefInvestor » July 12th, 2019, 9:11 am

Hi Again All, Tried doing a count based on the ADVFN data but unfortunately I couldnt copy and paste the data into my spreadsheet in any readily amenable format, so I couldnt do the calculation. Could do it if I spent more time but didnt think it was worth it, especially as we have the RNSs today (see below). I did do a rough count by eye though and it agreed with what I estimated on the 10.7 ie 50 million shares sold.

Also I see that we do indeed have 2 RNSs today, one from Woodford (who have reduced their holding from 11.84% to less than 5%) and the other from Invesco (who have reduced their holding by 3.4% to 25.96% from 28.56%).

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236098

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 9:35 am

Interesting where the gap open was. Right on a monthly pivot. (3 days ago) Catching technical gap buyers there? It's an auto buy for many. But now buying with the historic low price just above as resistance. Right where the shorters will be.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236123

Postby BusyBumbleBee » July 12th, 2019, 10:46 am

PrefInvestor wrote:Hi Again All, Tried doing a count based on the ADVFN data but unfortunately I couldnt copy and paste the data into my spreadsheet in any readily amenable format, so I couldn't do the calculation. ... Also I see that we do indeed have 2 RNSs today, one from Woodford (who have reduced their holding from 11.84% to less than 5%) and the other from Invesco (who have reduced their holding by 3.4% to 25.96% from 28.56%).

Hi PrefInvestor, it should download directly into a CSV file - which you can then open with Excel and manipulate. Send a private message with your email address if you want me to send it directly -

the two RNS came late yesterday by the way - with kind regards - BBB

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236231

Postby PrefInvestor » July 12th, 2019, 3:43 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:
PrefInvestor wrote:Hi All, Well no new RNSs today to accompany the mass of trade last evening (10/7) after the bell. Took the time this morning to download the trades from the shares magazine site (the only place I know where you can download previous days trading data for free ?) Pref

You might like to try this link https://uk.advfn.com/p.php?pid=trades&b ... set=recent

On that page you should be able to download all the day's trades with the "Download Trade Data" button top (ish) right.


Well I did try pressing the "Download Trade Data" button and all I got was a page that invited me to take up a paid subscription to be able to use that feature. Thats my experience with ADVFN generally in fact, they let you use the portfolio feature for a while. Then when you've got your portfolio set up they tell you to be able to use it you will need to take out a paid for subscription. Net result for me to date has been that I dont use them for any feature for which I need to logon. I do read a couple of stock specific boards though on a regular basis - but never post there.

Re the share sale volumes its all a bit academic now, pretty clear that Woodford has now sold most of their holding I think.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236237

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 3:50 pm

Not many saw value in buying them though pref? If the sale is done.. The lnception to conclusion date has seen a big loss. Not exactly people queing up to buy.

But....Could maybe assume that the shorters were pressuring his sales downwards for cheap purchase.. .

That's why I say you need to see short interest under 5% soon. It will tell you everything. Until it is safer to assume no value at the low.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236256

Postby BusyBumbleBee » July 12th, 2019, 5:16 pm

SentimentRules wrote:Wow this dividend it's ridiculous. Carillion job on the fall.

The BOD must be having some party.

I see, SentimentRules, in the six days since you joined the Lemon Fool you have posted an average of 40 replies per day. Most of us try to do some research before we post to back up anything we say.

I think we are all aware that, bearing in mind the price fall, the dividend is ridiculously high in percentage terms. However, I and I suspect quite a few others, see no parallel between this stock and Carillion. NRR has tangible revenue producing assets.

The recently published annual report shows no sign of a Board of Directors party but instead paints a picture of the company being rather well run and delivering good (now excellent) returns to shareholders and well positioned to weather any storm.

So... I am rather baffled by your rather rushed, cryptic comments -- regards - BBB

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236260

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 5:29 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:
SentimentRules wrote:Wow this dividend it's ridiculous. Carillion job on the fall.

The BOD must be having some party.

I see, SentimentRules, in the six days since you joined the Lemon Fool you have posted an average of 40 replies per day. Most of us try to do some research before we post to back up anything we say.

I think we are all aware that, bearing in mind the price fall, the dividend is ridiculously high in percentage terms. However, I and I suspect quite a few others, see no parallel between this stock and Carillion. NRR has tangible revenue producing assets.

The recently published annual report shows no sign of a Board of Directors party but instead paints a picture of the company being rather well run and delivering good (now excellent) returns to shareholders and well positioned to weather any storm.

So... I am rather baffled by your rather rushed, cryptic comments -- regards - BBB


Cryptic comments about this stock? Do you mean the BOD party? Well if they don't receive stocks in bonus form, and reap the high yield before the eventual slaughter of dividend, then I must apologise. Depends in the bonus structure. Sometimes received stocks cant be sold until x date. So yield is all they get . Often why its not cut until long after it should have been. But I'm sure it will be 0% soon.

Maybe start cuts to 6.5% where the market has truly priced it at initially. But thst pricing was when sentiment was very good. So nearer 0% more likely.

As for your analysis on the stock, im sure I'm entitled to mine too. Even if its calling it Carillion style. Your fundamentals are based on past sets of data (recent data was old five seconds after release) Market seems to think those are not a true reflection for future outlooks. We will see.

Do a bit of research on div and prices hitting historic lows. I'm sure you willl find it a comforting read.

As for me doing research, I just read the beano comic.
Last edited by SentimentRules on July 12th, 2019, 5:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236261

Postby PrefInvestor » July 12th, 2019, 5:34 pm

SentimentRules wrote:Not many saw value in buying them though pref? If the sale is done.. The lnception to conclusion date has seen a big loss. Not exactly people queing up to buy.

But....Could maybe assume that the shorters were pressuring his sales downwards for cheap purchase.. .

That's why I say you need to see short interest under 5% soon. It will tell you everything. Until it is safer to assume no value at the low.


Well looks to me as if a huge number were sold by the institutions on the 10/7, over 40 million in a day looking at the volume figures. Typical daily volumes traded are only a fraction of this, looking at the LSE site looks like 8million was the biggest volume in a while before that. So possibly the market makers have a big backlog to shift but retail buyers are in there buying in lower volumes ?. Just a theory.

I have been watching the short interest here https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BD7XPJ64/ and it doesn’t seem to have got any worse. No new/increased shorts shown since 14/6 and in fact 3 shorts closed since 5/6.

Share price dipped to 159.5 on the morning of 11/7 following the end of day sales the previous day, recovered quickly next day and has been steady since. Not saying it’s out of the woods yet but the share price is now in the ballpark that I was expecting based on the previous published NAV.

ATB

Pref


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