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the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

SentimentRules
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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236262

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 5:40 pm

No short decrease after the sale too pref. Needs to hit under 5% by next week, or people like me will confidently lay into long term shorts.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236263

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 5:44 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:
SentimentRules wrote:Not many saw value in buying them though pref? If the sale is done.. The lnception to conclusion date has seen a big loss. Not exactly people queing up to buy.

But....Could maybe assume that the shorters were pressuring his sales downwards for cheap purchase.. .

That's why I say you need to see short interest under 5% soon. It will tell you everything. Until it is safer to assume no value at the low.


Well looks to me as if a huge number were sold by the institutions on the 10/7, over 40 million in a day looking at the volume figures. Typical daily volumes traded are only a fraction of this, looking at the LSE site looks like 8million was the biggest volume in a while before that. So possibly the market makers have a big backlog to shift but retail buyers are in there buying in lower volumes ?. Just a theory.

I have been watching the short interest here https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BD7XPJ64/ and it doesn’t seem to have got any worse. No new/increased shorts shown since 14/6 and in fact 3 shorts closed since 5/6.

Share price dipped to 159.5 on the morning of 11/7 following the end of day sales the previous day, recovered quickly next day and has been steady since. Not saying it’s out of the woods yet but the share price is now in the ballpark that I was expecting based on the previous published NAV.

ATB

Pref


Yes retail buying lower volumes. They were given a technical area to buy the professional dumping. Bad marker.

I know capital maybe doesn't interest you much. But watch for that div slaughter. Don't care what they said last. It's coming imo

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236278

Postby PrefInvestor » July 12th, 2019, 6:40 pm

Well SentimentRules, to be clear I am relatively agnostic about what happens here. But I am of the opinion that the immediate risk from the huge Woodford holding is likely over, but anything with a significant level of shorts is always a concern. So not sure what will happen with the share price but at 170p it at a much more reasonable level now compared to the May NAV of 261p than hitherto.

Will the dividend be severely cut (I take that this is what your “dividend slaughter” comment is implying ?) then it wouldn’t surprise me. It’s not fully covered and a 12%+ does appear to be to high to be credible and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it were cut to an extent. If they reduced the dividend to 9% I’m sure most investors would be pretty happy with that, this being the level that they have explicitly targeted in their investment case.

But we will just have to see how things go, but it seems to me that given events this week they could have gone much worse than they actually have.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236281

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 6:51 pm

Given a few of it's ratios though Pref, I would be surprised if the markets accepted only a cut to 9%. Still too much debt in that yield. And its not exactly a low geared stock in the sector.

Never know. Could become a recovery play at some point. But value hunters won't play recovery in my estimation with yield even above 3%. Just my opinion.

All I'm really trying to say is, from a shorters perspective, and all things considered , its ripe if the short interest shows no exit soon.

However, I know you a while really don't I. Always easy to chat with etc. I hope it does dump the shorts for you soon. I can go find another one within five mins to short anyway lol.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236287

Postby PrefInvestor » July 12th, 2019, 7:27 pm

Well SentimentRules, I’m not aware of having chatted with you before. Unless it’s perhaps from ii and you have a different username here ?.

As for debt, well all REITS have loads of debt don’t they, and last I read the LTV was 37 I think (May 2019).

Anyway, as I’ve already said. We’ll just have to see how it goes. I have a small holding here now given recent events, not too worried how it turns out TBH.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236289

Postby SentimentRules » July 12th, 2019, 7:36 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:Well SentimentRules, I’m not aware of having chatted with you before. Unless it’s perhaps from ii and you have a different username here ?.

As for debt, we’ll all REITS have loads of debt don’t they, and last I read the LTV was 37 I think (May 2019).

Anyway, as I’ve already said. We’ll just have to see how it goes. I have a small holding here now given recent events, not too worried how it turns out TBH.

ATB

Pref


LSE. Yes they all have their debt. But the last printed net gearing or other ratios don't mean much now. They are just the barometers of the previous 12 months expectation .

Institutions are looking 6-12 months ahead in their future valuations of book value and trading /investing that expectation now.

So i guess it' all depends how they have valued the debt/assets , looking forward.

Good to hear a small holding. A large one in anything is never smart. Have a good weekend.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236651

Postby westmoreland » July 14th, 2019, 8:40 pm

PrefInvestor wrote:Well SentimentRules, to be clear I am relatively agnostic about what happens here. But I am of the opinion that the immediate risk from the huge Woodford holding is likely over, but anything with a significant level of shorts is always a concern. So not sure what will happen with the share price but at 170p it at a much more reasonable level now compared to the May NAV of 261p than hitherto.

Will the dividend be severely cut (I take that this is what your “dividend slaughter” comment is implying ?) then it wouldn’t surprise me. It’s not fully covered and a 12%+ does appear to be to high to be credible and I wouldn’t be totally surprised if it were cut to an extent. If they reduced the dividend to 9% I’m sure most investors would be pretty happy with that, this being the level that they have explicitly targeted in their investment case.

But we will just have to see how things go, but it seems to me that given events this week they could have gone much worse than they actually have.

ATB

Pref


they indicated FFO of 20p per share in the annual report, with the hawthorn synergies, and the annualised impact of acquisitions. this would equate to a 7% fall in the dividend.

once you factor in the JV with Pimco which will increase rental income due to higher yield (and they'll get management fees from PIMCO), i'd actually expect the dividend to be modestly higher next year.

there's also plenty of residential development in the pipeline, which should over the medium term provide more capital profits.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#236695

Postby PrefInvestor » July 15th, 2019, 6:46 am

Hi All, Well I checked the institutional shareholder holdings on NRRs web site this morning and they reported the following situation as of 11th July:-

Code: Select all

Invesco   Was 79,336,992 Now 87,321,619 Up ~8 Million
Woodford    Was 36,181,907 Now not listed (so <3%)
BlackRock   Was 13,789,054 Now 13,789,054 Unchanged


So as anticipated Woodford now looks to be out (or be down to less than 3% anyway), Invesco have increased their stake by about 8 Million and Blackrock’s holding hasn’t changed.

That would seem to only amount to a total of about 28 million shares being sold though and the ADVFN after the bell trade figures looked to me to show that over 50 million were sold on the 10th July. Can’t immediately account for that ATM.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#237856

Postby PrefInvestor » July 19th, 2019, 6:04 pm

Hi All, Nice close at 170 today significantly higher than the lows earlier in the week. I note that a couple of shorts would appear to have been closed and we are now down to 5.78% of short interest, was 7.4% earlier in the week. See link below for details of the shorts that have been closed https://www.shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB00BD7XPJ64/.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#238536

Postby PrefInvestor » July 22nd, 2019, 10:11 pm

Hi All, Well another really good day for NRR today 22/7, up 5.6p on pretty decent volume and short interest dropped to 5.18% - see link in previous post. Fingers crossed for a recovery now that the Woodford overhang is gone.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#239084

Postby BusyBumbleBee » July 25th, 2019, 8:01 am

Worth checking the upbeat update at https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/londo ... d/80394992

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#240906

Postby PrefInvestor » July 31st, 2019, 9:47 pm

Hi All, Well can’t help but feel that we are seeing the effect of the horrible results and share price moves of the big REITs HMSO and INTU on NRR today.

INTU declared a loss and cancelled their dividend, shares were down almost 32% !.
HMSO were down big on results day 3 days ago and down close to another 11% today.
BLND was also down about 3% today.

Commercial retail property REITs are not doing great ATM !.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#240918

Postby onslow » July 31st, 2019, 10:42 pm

Think your right Pref - larger market sentiment towards property co's quite negative at the moment

However, 2 x directors have recently added to their holdings, and 1 has sold a relatively small amount due to tax reasons(must be nice problem to have such a large tax bill!)

I bought some at 177p a month ago and seriously considering buying some more, they appear to be making inroads into increasing cashflow to cover the divi, and their general approach is slightly more sutble than "just another REIT specialising in Retail". I like their recent move into pubs recently too.

ALso, didnt Woodford cast off some of his holdings to Invesco? Prehaps they are selling some too. Not sure.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#241951

Postby jonesa1 » August 5th, 2019, 8:17 pm

Ouch!

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244497

Postby BusyBumbleBee » August 15th, 2019, 12:10 pm

jonesa1 wrote:Ouch!
Yup and it's beginning to hurt even more

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244501

Postby Alaric » August 15th, 2019, 12:15 pm

BusyBumbleBee wrote:Yup and it's beginning to hurt even more


Down 4% so far today and a 30% loss over the last three months. The dividend yield, if they pay, is now well into double figures.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244607

Postby PrefInvestor » August 15th, 2019, 7:51 pm

Alaric wrote:
BusyBumbleBee wrote:Yup and it's beginning to hurt even more

Down 4% so far today and a 30% loss over the last three months. The dividend yield, if they pay, is now well into double figures.


Yes should have spotted this as a yield trap from the start, watched my 10% normal stop go by but thought it would recover. Some hopes, 17% down now and need to act. Been preparing my exit plan this evening, plan to sell my NRR plus a few GSK (where I am overweight and the yield has fallen) and buy RAVP (which has just gone XD today and so is cheap) to replace it - should retain the same income that way. Capital is gone, but RAVP might do well - especially if rates are cut. Prefs are faring well during this latest fall in the markets, no effect seen on any of mine.

All forms of retail and retail REITs in the UK are just a disaster ATM. Look at INTU, HMSO, BLND etc. all have been hammered. Time to take my lumps and exit I think.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244682

Postby PrefInvestor » August 16th, 2019, 8:35 am

Hi All, Well went to sell my NRR shares this morning only to find that trading was halted and the shares suspended. Fearing bad news, but I guess it could be a takeover or something ?. I'm not sure TBH. Glad Ive only got a small holding here............awaiting more news.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244685

Postby PrefInvestor » August 16th, 2019, 8:47 am

Well after my last post looking around several other shares seem to be suspended as well BDEV, BKG, SLA amongst them. Cant see any of those having gone to the wall so I suspect we may be looking at a LSE glitch here ?. Just guessing......

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244746

Postby PrefInvestor » August 16th, 2019, 11:29 am

Well eventually sold at 146.5 and used the funds to buy RAVP, slight loss of income but not too bad - and a lot less volatile !.

NRR still heading south as I write this 144 to sell ATM. Personally I reckon they may go as low as 120-130 now (?) with sentiment the way it is.

GLA Holders.......I shall be watching from the sidelines. Still think its a good company, just facing MASSIVE negative sentiment. No idea what will turn that around and come to the rescue of retail / property.

ATB

Pref


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