Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit Card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to GSVsowhat,johnstevens77,BusyBumbleBee,88V8,Anonymous, for Donating to support the site

British Land

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

British Land

#153932

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 12:08 pm

All the talk about Unilever has set me thinking again about B Land. It is really a pretty hopeless share, however great its London portfolio is.

Its one merit is its yield, where it gives a respectable 4.6%. It is dearly bought income though. I bought it first only in September 2014 at £7.27. It peaked at around £8.70 in October 2015 since when it has drifted downwards and closed last evening at £6.385.

Compare that to other stalwarts of a HYP such as Shell yielding 4.9%. In October 2015 it was standing at £17.75 and is now £27.25, HSBC is yielding 5%. In October 2015 £5.32, now £7.20 or Unilever yielding 2.9%. In October 2015 £29, now £43.62.

I sold some B Land in February this year at £6.474 and think I should have sold the lot. Maybe I will on Monday. I will have a look over the weekend and see if I can identify something more worthwhile.

Moderator Message:
REDACTED SENTENCE. As you well know, discussion about moderation is frowned upon. Provocation of Mods is downright unhelpful.


Dod

PinkDalek
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4137
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 950 times
Been thanked: 1079 times

Re: British Land

#153948

Postby PinkDalek » July 21st, 2018, 1:32 pm

Dod101 wrote:All the talk about Unilever has set me thinking again about B Land. It is really a pretty hopeless share, however great its London portfolio is.

Its one merit is its yield, where it gives a respectable 4.6%. ...


I make the announced/declared yield something like 4.75%. In fact that's the yield shown here https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend ... ?epic=BLND (7.52p x 3 + 7.75p)=/638.6p.

Assuming that 7.75p is replicated for the next 3 quarters and if the share price is constant, the yield would be in the region of 4.85%.

We've held BLand through thick and thin for decades, including during the very tricky time in the Seventies, I think it was, when they were close to breaching their covenants, and will continue to hold.

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#153951

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 1:46 pm

PinkDalek wrote:We've held BLand through thick and thin for decades, including during the very tricky time in the Seventies, I think it was, when they were close to breaching their covenants, and will continue to hold.


Is that a badge of honour? It is no reason to continue holding B Land. It is surely worthwhile to review the holding now and again. If I hold an investment and get say 4.7% from it that is fine up to a point, but if the capital value is being eroded significantly does that not have a bearing on the return? Of course it does and London property companies have never given a very good total return in the long term, at least not in my experience. That is surely not what HYPing is about. If it is I am glad never to have been a dedicated HYPer.

Dod

PinkDalek
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4137
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 950 times
Been thanked: 1079 times

Re: British Land

#153954

Postby PinkDalek » July 21st, 2018, 1:58 pm

I'm not a HYPster but it is about yield, as you well know, and I therefore replied on the numbers.

Our holding is part of an unbalanced portfolio, being very LTB&H. I threw in the history of the holding for disclosure purposes only. Badge of honour you ask - nice.

In case you don't know, there is a REITS board, where one can readily discuss the market in the South East, share prices etc:

viewforum.php?f=87

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#153956

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 2:16 pm

Thanks I did not know that there is a REITs board, but the fact is there is therefore some duplication with this HYP Board. I am not trying to be provocative- some say I can do that without trying - but as B Land is a popular HYP share I thought that this was a good place to discuss it. If one looks at income alone yes B Land is fine, but I can never do that and all I was doing is showing that there are candidates which will provide a good income in the HYP sense and have also provided a decent rise in capital values (we cannot know the future)

As you have with B Land, I have held HSBC for a long time (1991 in case you would like to know) and it did superbly well throughout the last decade of the last century and rather less well since but I know it as a well run company with the right culture and so am happy to hold it, and I happen to think that it has very good years ahead of it with its emphasis on East Asia. It is not a candidate for replacing my now quite small holding in B Land though since it is about my fourth largest holding and I have no wish to add to it at this time.

Dod

Gengulphus
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2934
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:17 am
Been thanked: 1498 times

Re: British Land

#153960

Postby Gengulphus » July 21st, 2018, 2:35 pm

Dod101 wrote:Its one merit is its yield, where it gives a respectable 4.6%. It is dearly bought income though. I bought it first only in September 2014 at £7.27. It peaked at around £8.70 in October 2015 since when it has drifted downwards and closed last evening at £6.385.

Compare that to other stalwarts of a HYP such as Shell yielding 4.9%. In October 2015 it was standing at £17.75 and is now £27.25, HSBC is yielding 5%. In October 2015 £5.32, now £7.20 or Unilever yielding 2.9%. In October 2015 £29, now £43.62.

I agree that British Land has been a long way short of a stellar performer, but you would make a much better case for that if you chose a less biased way of comparing it with other shares. Any share will look average at best and probably mediocre if you choose to start the comparison on the date that it peaked!

For instance, Unilever peaked on 18 October 2017, at a closing price of £45.485. At £43.62, it's now 4.1% down on that. On the same date, HSBA was £7.483 and RDSB £23.345, making them down 3.8% and up 16.7% at the prices you quote: both have done better than Unilever, Shell considerably better.

If you want a reasonable argument about how the shares compare, choose a starting date in a way that does not depend on how the share has performed - for instance, 5, 10, 15, 20 or 25 years ago. I've just done that using the FT's charting facility - with percentages up (approximate due to being eyeballed from the charts), the orders of the shares were:

5 years: ULVR 75%, RDSB 25%, BLND 15%, HSBA 5%
10 years: ULVR 195%, RDSB 45%, BLND 0%, HSBA -5%
15 years: ULVR 280%, RDSB 100%, BLND 55%, HSBA 0%
20 years: ULVR 250%, RDSB 150%, HSBA 100%, BLND 50%
25 years: ULVR 610%, RDSB 250%, HSBA 240%, BLND 100%

It's that sort of consistent performance difference over a number of different periods, none of them chosen with regard to any particularly good or bad performance by any one company, that I regard as reasonably convincing evidence that Unilever has been getting things right and British Land hasn't.

Only "reasonably convincing", though, because that's just price performance. Dividends do need to be taken into account as well, and over periods of many years they can make a big difference. But not very plausibly as big as those differences between Unilever's and British Land's price performances...

Gengulphus

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#153965

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 3:00 pm

Many thanks for these numbers Gengulphus. The reason I chose October 2015 was simply because that was when I bought into B Land again. I had held them and Land Securities quite a long time before and gave up on them for the same reasons that I am thinking of ditching B Land now. I had no intention whatever to try to prove a case one way or the other. It is clear though now that the big commercial property companies in London are not really very good investments by most standards. Partly I suppose that is the lack of foreign currency exposure (Unilever for instance is quite exposed to the US Dollar, much more so than in its accounting currency of the Euro, as many emerging market currencies are linked at least informally to the US Dollar) and simply also to the fact that there is a limited demand for commercial property in London, despite the attractiveness of the product.

I have not looked at its numbers but Segro I would imagine has done better. I hold it and also Primary Health Properties which holds its capital value quite well and so the benefit is the dividend which is quite sound. Food for thought but I think I will be selling B Land on Monday come what may.

Dod

PinkDalek
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4137
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:12 pm
Has thanked: 950 times
Been thanked: 1079 times

Re: British Land

#153968

Postby PinkDalek » July 21st, 2018, 3:14 pm

Dod101 wrote:Thanks I did not know that there is a REITs board, but the fact is there is therefore some duplication with this HYP Board. ...


Yes and the Guidelines for here state "Investment Trusts or open ended funds should not be included, although REITs are acceptable." and I wasn't taking any issue with BLand being discussed on this board.

I mentioned the REITs board as you are relatively content with the BLand yield. Your issue being the share price movements and their London centric portfolio. In fact you were thinking of selling your BLand and replacing with Mucklow back in February (on the REITs board ;)):

viewtopic.php?p=118858#p118858

I fully note our LTB&H on the BLand holding has not been stellar and most likely foolish (with a lower case f), especially now looking at the table from Gengulphus, but this Mr Doris isn't looking at recent decades and is cognisant of the decent yield. I think we've held from the early Seventies!

Not that this is a badge of honour, as you put it, merely a reflection of some of our holding periods. As I said, through thick and thin and none of this short termism.

Edit: We also hold ULVR and RDSB, fwiiw.

Raptor
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1658
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 1:39 pm
Has thanked: 148 times
Been thanked: 307 times

Re: British Land

#153971

Postby Raptor » July 21st, 2018, 3:18 pm

I brought into BLND in May'17 at £6.69 for my daughter HYP. Hasn't lit up the sky but then again some of the others I brought at the time have done worse (and most a lot better ;) ). Forecast yield still looks fine at 4.8%. If I was to be in the market to buy this year rather than last would probably have left it alone with the London Property "decline" but have it now so will run with it for now.

I got the REIT board started way back along with the Pharma board, for those shares that do not fit HYP or for general posts on the subjects. No reason why we could not "crosspost" though.

Raptor.

BTW Showing a -.89% xirr at the moment.

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#153974

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 3:24 pm

OK badge of honour was not the most sensible term and maybe a bit silly. Set that to one side and I am not into short termism provided the long term view is good. I have held all of the shares I mentioned for instance for upwards of 20 years and am not by nature short termist but B Land's income is dearly bought and maybe I will sell and put the proceeds into Mucklow again. I like them and their family holding, and they have a good yield of around 3.9%. I see little downside in their share price so sacrificing a bit of income in favour of a better total return is not to me a bad exchange.

Some may say that this is contrary to true HYP principals but I will never get rich by losing capital.

Dod

idpickering
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4410
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 5:04 pm
Has thanked: 634 times
Been thanked: 1394 times

Re: British Land

#153986

Postby idpickering » July 21st, 2018, 4:29 pm

Hi Dod, I feel I should offer you some support regarding your doubts about British Land. I have held them for many years in my HYP, bought for the decent yield they offered at that time, and the added diversification they provided to my HYP. I’ve come to terms with the fact that they’ll never shoot the lights out, and are truly a boring HYP holding. Maybe that’s a good thing? I’m not topping up currently and nor am I selling, for the reasons I mentioned above, which still seem to be true even now. I shall hold on the my BLND shares.

Ian

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2871
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 311 times
Been thanked: 737 times

Re: British Land

#154002

Postby monabri » July 21st, 2018, 5:07 pm

I don't think Mucklow's will give you the TR return you're looking for and you'd be buying at almost a 5 year high share price wise coupled with a lower dividend yield than B.Land. Forecast earnings for MKLW is flattish/slightly diminishing out to 2023 (source SimplyWallStreet).

I don't see a compelling enough case in moving from B.Land to MKLW.

monabri
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2871
Joined: January 7th, 2017, 9:56 am
Has thanked: 311 times
Been thanked: 737 times

Re: British Land

#154004

Postby monabri » July 21st, 2018, 5:14 pm

Terry Smith

"What you are end up measuring" :roll:

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#154011

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 5:44 pm

monabri wrote:I don't think Mucklow's will give you the TR return you're looking for and you'd be buying at almost a 5 year high share price wise coupled with a lower dividend yield than B.Land. Forecast earnings for MKLW is flattish/slightly diminishing out to 2023 (source SimplyWallStreet).

I don't see a compelling enough case in moving from B.Land to MKLW.


I have not really decided but if Mucklow only maintains its price then that will be better than B Land. That is the point. I am not asking for much.

Dod

IanTHughes
Lemon Slice
Posts: 769
Joined: May 2nd, 2018, 12:01 pm
Has thanked: 389 times
Been thanked: 335 times

Re: British Land

#154022

Postby IanTHughes » July 21st, 2018, 6:44 pm

One of the things I really like about these investment boards, is that I can receive words of wisdom from those who have more years investing under their belt than I do. This board I particularly like, because I use the HYP Strategy and hearing about people that have successfully tweaked the strategy with their own improvements … wonderful

Now let me see if I have this British Land (BLND) tweak right:

Sep 2014 Buy at 727.00p a 5 year high
Yield is a comfortably safe 3.64% - we don’t want any yields in the “Cataclysmic Zone”

Receive dividends rising by approx. 2.75% per year

Yield rises to 4.75% - oh dear, getting close to “Hell Freezes Over Zone”
July 2018 Sell at 638.50 – a capital loss of over 12% + Tax and Charges


Invest proceeds into A J Mucklow (A & J) Group (MKLW)

July 2018 Buy at 556.00p a 10 year high – excellent!
Yield is a comfortably safe 4.03% - that’s better, nowhere near the “Fall Off a Cliff Zone”

Have I got that right?


You know what, I need much more experience before I can get this. Maybe one day I too will be able to manage such a complex strategy but for now I must remain with the standard HYP



Ian

:D :D :D :D

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#154023

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 6:58 pm

Well I like your smileys and the general sentiment, IanTH. None of us gets it right all the time and maybe I can give you a bit more background later. As of now I need to go because dinner is nearly on the table. All I will say is that sure, my timing for B Land was not good but it is easy with hindsight. Which crystal ball do you recommend?

Dod

IanTHughes
Lemon Slice
Posts: 769
Joined: May 2nd, 2018, 12:01 pm
Has thanked: 389 times
Been thanked: 335 times

Re: British Land

#154025

Postby IanTHughes » July 21st, 2018, 7:07 pm

Dod101 wrote:Which crystal ball do you recommend?


No Crystal Ball, simply:

1) Buy only High Yield for the High Yield Portfolio (HYP) - there is a clue is in the name you know
2) Enjoy a rising dividend
3) Do not overtrade and certainly do not sell to invest in a lower yield

You really should check out the HYP Strategy. Don't worry, it is simple to follow


Ian

Dod101
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 3548
Joined: October 10th, 2017, 11:33 am
Has thanked: 684 times
Been thanked: 1257 times

Re: British Land

#154027

Postby Dod101 » July 21st, 2018, 7:34 pm

IanTH

My concerns are set out in my OP. I am not trying to suggest that a HYP strategy is no good because I broadly follow it. I will not dwell on that because it is not for me to criticise those who do follow it to the letter. I am simply observing that the yield from B Land is dearly bought; the price being the fall in the share price, but then that apparently does not matter.

'Nuff said

Dod

IanTHughes
Lemon Slice
Posts: 769
Joined: May 2nd, 2018, 12:01 pm
Has thanked: 389 times
Been thanked: 335 times

Re: British Land

#154033

Postby IanTHughes » July 21st, 2018, 8:14 pm

Dod101 wrote:My concerns are set out in my OP.

Yes that was interesting:

HSBC Group Holdings (HSBA) – Oct 2015
Price 532.00p
Yield 7.47%

Royal Dutch Shell ‘B’ (RDSB) - Oct 2015
Price 1,775.00p
Yield 6.98%

Compared with your earlier purchase

British Land (BLND) – Sep 2014
Price 727.00p
Yield 3.64%

Dod101 wrote:I am not trying to suggest that a HYP strategy is no good because I broadly follow it.

I am not sure you even understand it. Buying a yield of 3.64% when many better yields were available ….. no that is not HYP at all. Nothing wrong with using another strategy but don't kid yourself, you are fooling no-one here

Dod101 wrote:I am simply observing that the yield from B Land is dearly bought; the price being the fall in the share price, but then that apparently does not matter.

Was the low yield not just a teensy weensy bit of a clue?

Dod101 wrote:'Nuff said

Quite


Ian

MDW1954
Lemon Slice
Posts: 763
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 8:46 pm
Has thanked: 134 times
Been thanked: 159 times

Re: British Land

#154044

Postby MDW1954 » July 21st, 2018, 10:08 pm

IanTHughes wrote:One of the things I really like about these investment boards, is that I can receive words of wisdom from those who have more years investing under their belt than I do. This board I particularly like, because I use the HYP Strategy and hearing about people that have successfully tweaked the strategy with their own improvements … wonderful

Now let me see if I have this British Land (BLND) tweak right:

Sep 2014 Buy at 727.00p a 5 year high
Yield is a comfortably safe 3.64% - we don’t want any yields in the “Cataclysmic Zone”

Receive dividends rising by approx. 2.75% per year

Yield rises to 4.75% - oh dear, getting close to “Hell Freezes Over Zone”
July 2018 Sell at 638.50 – a capital loss of over 12% + Tax and Charges


Invest proceeds into A J Mucklow (A & J) Group (MKLW)

July 2018 Buy at 556.00p a 10 year high – excellent!
Yield is a comfortably safe 4.03% - that’s better, nowhere near the “Fall Off a Cliff Zone”

Have I got that right?


You know what, I need much more experience before I can get this. Maybe one day I too will be able to manage such a complex strategy but for now I must remain with the standard HYP



Ian

:D :D :D :D


The smile of the day! Thank you.

MDW1954


Return to “REITs & Property Companies”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 1 guest