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the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

flyer61
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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244747

Postby flyer61 » August 16th, 2019, 11:31 am

Quite striking the difference in performance between RDI/RGL and NRR these last few weeks and months. NRR equals retail which equals ...eek in the markets eyes. It will be interesting to see how this pans out ie is the NRR story actually a good one or is it all waffle and hot air.

Given RGL has significant cash on the books this is the only buy for me at the moment.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244751

Postby Alaric » August 16th, 2019, 11:41 am

PrefInvestor wrote:
NRR still heading south as I write this 144 to sell ATM. Personally I reckon they may go as low as 120-130 now (?) with sentiment the way it is.


The nominal dividend yield is now approaching 15%. How high will it go before the directors decide that they shouldn't be paying out such a high percentage of the Company's market value and slash or suspend the dividend? Does the point that it's a REIT with rules about distributing property rental income affect this?

It is currently paying a dividend of 5.4p a quarter. Information as to whether this is 100% PID is elusive.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244766

Postby gbjbaanb » August 16th, 2019, 12:45 pm

Yep, REITs are mandated to pay out most of their profits as dividends - they cannot just cut them.

REITs are exempt from paying corporate tax and are required to distribute at least 90% of quarterly profits as dividends (defined as Property Income Distributions, or PIDs).


Which makes the whole thing very interesting... assuming you can time the bottom :)

The high street is not going away any time soon, but the rents might be cut if they cannot fill properties with tenants, and that will affect the dividend more than anything, but in those cases, I think the owners will start to re-purpose some of them to entertainment facilities, housing or distribution pick-up places instead of shops which will do something good for the high street. So NRR is on my radar, buy when everyone else is selling!

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244776

Postby PrefInvestor » August 16th, 2019, 1:13 pm

Alaric wrote:
PrefInvestor wrote:
NRR still heading south as I write this 144 to sell ATM. Personally I reckon they may go as low as 120-130 now (?) with sentiment the way it is.
The nominal dividend yield is now approaching 15%. How high will it go before the directors decide that they shouldn't be paying out such a high percentage of the Company's market value and slash or suspend the dividend? Does the point that it's a REIT with rules about distributing property rental income affect this? It is currently paying a dividend of 5.4p a quarter. Information as to whether this is 100% PID is elusive.


Hi Alaric, I have thought for quite some time now that a dividend cut of some description was inevitable at some point, but I can understand why they don’t want to even mention such a possibility now as to do do would likely damage the share price still further. They claim that the dividend is mostly covered by FFO from operations, which supplemented by their other activities should enabke them to fully fund it.

I fear that we might see a negative feedback in which poor retail sentiment knocks onto property values and hence to NAV and thence to the share price. I also suspect that there may be increasing pressure from retail tenants regarding rents. Just some things that have been worrying me and encouraging me to exit....

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244781

Postby EssDeeAitch » August 16th, 2019, 1:23 pm

What I don't understand is why this REIT finds such favour.

It's performance has been dire, and yes, I appreciate that past performance etc. but what am I missing, why is this REIT considered a good one (genuine question)

Data from HL
Image

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244786

Postby Alaric » August 16th, 2019, 1:43 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:. but what am I missing, why is this REIT considered a good one (genuine question)


You only look at the dividend yield and ignore the capital performance.

The Woodford funds favoured it, before that became a negative.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244794

Postby EssDeeAitch » August 16th, 2019, 2:06 pm

Alaric wrote:
EssDeeAitch wrote:. but what am I missing, why is this REIT considered a good one (genuine question)


You only look at the dividend yield and ignore the capital performance.

The Woodford funds favoured it, before that became a negative.


Hmmm, so in the last five years, obtaining a yield of 5 or 8% each year is offset by a capital loss of 50%. Still does not seem right to me

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244795

Postby mc2fool » August 16th, 2019, 2:12 pm

gbjbaanb wrote:Yep, REITs are mandated to pay out most of their profits as dividends - they cannot just cut them.
REITs are exempt from paying corporate tax and are required to distribute at least 90% of quarterly profits as dividends (defined as Property Income Distributions, or PIDs).

Almost ... REITs are required to distribute at least 90% of their exempt rental income. Those distributions are called Property Income Distributions (PIDs) and are taxed as property income to the investor (not as dividends). Outside of a tax shelter they are paid with a withholding of income tax at the basic rate, 20% (in a tax shelter they may be paid gross or paid net with the withholding later reclaimed by the broker, depending on the broker's set up).

A REIT may also issue normal, non-PID, dividends from it's other income and profits.

Primary Health Properties (PHP) has quite a useful page explaining all that, along with the tax implications, at https://www.phpgroup.co.uk/investors/dividends.

Curiously PHP managed to pay only non-PID dividends for the first 5 or 6 years of its existence, and (IIRC) Dod contacted their CFO to try and understand why and got a (IIRC) rather stroppy reply. I don't remember what the end conclusion was ...

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244874

Postby monabri » August 16th, 2019, 7:00 pm

EssDeeAitch wrote:What I don't understand is why this REIT finds such favour.

It's performance has been dire, and yes, I appreciate that past performance etc. but what am I missing, why is this REIT considered a good one (genuine question)

Data from HL
Image


(Numbers are share price performance as mentioned previously)

Use the comparator tool at HL to obtain / compare total returns.

https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... ion/charts

( try setting "investment type" to "equity " and then type in an EPIC code..in this case NRR. You can also type in the EPIC codes for investment trusts such as CTY to make comparisons).

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#244897

Postby 88V8 » August 16th, 2019, 8:32 pm

monabri wrote: Use the comparator tool at HL to obtain / compare total returns.
https://www.hl.co.uk/funds/fund-discoun ... ion/charts
( try setting "investment type" to "equity " and then type in an EPIC code..in this case NRR. You can also type in the EPIC codes for investment trusts such as CTY to make comparisons).


Useful tool, thanks.
Oh dear, yes the wheels have really come off.
I've held NRR for some time, during a CGT swap I moved them into OH's ISA where they have reinforced her impression that I don't know what I'm doing.

Tempting to top up, but despite what Pyad says, the time doesn't feel like now.
As they say in Hornblower, 'no bottom with this line'.

V8

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#245136

Postby UncleEbenezer » August 17th, 2019, 9:44 pm

88V8 wrote:As they say in Hornblower, 'no bottom with this line'.

V8

Hornblower? Shakespeare's usage pre-dates him!

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#245137

Postby Alaric » August 17th, 2019, 10:35 pm

88V8 wrote:Tempting to top up, but despite what Pyad says, the time doesn't feel like now.


It's a three way gamble if you buy into it.

Recovery when the share price returns to a range where the dividend yield drops to a more normal level.
Dividend cut where the Directors take action to reduce the dividend outgo.
Near complete collapse. The properties will have value, but they've probably borrowed against this value.

You wouldn't buy a Corporate Bond with a 15% yield without thinking "junk".

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246401

Postby PrefInvestor » August 22nd, 2019, 9:41 pm

Hi All, Nice bounce for NRR today, kicking myself for having baled at ~147 – but there you go. Took my lumps and sold.

Not 100% sure of the cause for the bounce but I have a personal theory that it might be down to the Green King deal. Suspect that this may be causing people to upgrade their views on pub property pricing ?, i note that Marstons has also been doing very well since the deal was announced. Given that NRR also has a large pub property estate I think this may be the reason.

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246476

Postby Silverstar64 » August 23rd, 2019, 10:18 am

There have been no RNS announcements of new or changed holdings since 11th July but we know that the short interest is reducing from 8.29% mid June to 4.69% yesterday. That is a reduction of ~10 million shares short and I believe that shorts beginning to close out their positions together with some buying interest is the cause of the share price improvement this week.

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246482

Postby BusyBumbleBee » August 23rd, 2019, 10:31 am

PrefInvestor wrote:Hi All, Nice bounce for NRR today, kicking myself for having baled at ~147 – but there you go. Took my lumps and sold. {-- I am hanging in there cos actually it is hard to find a share with better prospects : if you are still watching it though Pref, it means you must miss it ;) --}

Not 100% sure of the cause for the bounce but I have a personal theory that it might be down to the Green King deal {-- So i had already sold my Greene King :( cos I thought it was just rubbing along with a tired estate --}. Suspect that this may be causing people to upgrade their views on pub property pricing ?, i note that Marstons has also been doing very well since the deal was announced. Given that NRR also has a large pub property estate I think this may be the reason. ATB Pref
kind regards - BBB

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246488

Postby PrefInvestor » August 23rd, 2019, 11:07 am

BusyBumbleBee wrote:...........if you are still watching it though Pref, it means you must miss it..............


Hi BBB, Being a masochist I track my last few trades (on my investment spreadsheet) to see if what I bought has done better or worse than what I sold. So thats why Im still in touch with what its doing. Up ANOTHER 3% today :!:. Sorry if you are saying you missed out on the Green King deal, that would have been worth a few bob Im sure !.

Oh well thats how it goes isnt it.......?. Timing is everything especially with individual stocks.

Waiting on the latest TRIG offer now.......

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246493

Postby PrefInvestor » August 23rd, 2019, 11:26 am

Silverstar64 wrote:That is a reduction of ~10 million shares short and I believe that shorts beginning to close out their positions together with some buying interest is the cause of the share price improvement this week.


Hi SilverStar64, Yes the shorters must be getting burnt quite badly now, shares are up close to 14% since I sold !. I still think that its the Green King deal that has lit a rocket under this myself (Marstons also....).

ATB

Pref

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246498

Postby Silverstar64 » August 23rd, 2019, 11:35 am

PrefInvestor wrote:Yes the shorters must be getting burnt quite badly now, shares are up close to 14% since I sold !. I still think that its the Green King deal that has lit a rocket under this myself (Marstons also....).

Pref
I have been there with selling then the price spikes so I feel your pain! Regarding the shorts they must be feeling the pressure and having to consider when to buy back any borrowed shares. Ofcourse they could still be in the money given how far the price has fallen.

I am staying strong with NRR, my largest single holding so I hope my faith and bullish case comes good. I like the diversification in their revenues with the property management tools, pub portfolio and capital recycling but we'll see.

ATB, Silverstar46

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246509

Postby gbjbaanb » August 23rd, 2019, 11:50 am

All retail has taken a hit - even Tritax BigBox REIT. I read a report saying retail growth had plummeted this month: collapse at fastest pace since 2008

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Re: the NewRiver REIT (NRR) topic

#246517

Postby PrefInvestor » August 23rd, 2019, 12:06 pm

gbjbaanb wrote:All retail has taken a hit - even Tritax BigBox REIT. I read a report saying retail growth had plummeted this month: collapse at fastest pace since 2008


Yes I remember reading somewhere that the world of "last mile REITs" was becoming increasingly crowded and impacted by the general retail downturn. Tried to find the article again but without success, sorry.

ATB

Pref


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