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Regional REIT.

jonesa1
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Re: Regional REIT.

#291887

Postby jonesa1 » March 18th, 2020, 9:16 am

88V8 wrote:Suggestions today that distressed cos should have a three month rent holiday.

Ahhh, those evil landlords, expecting rent.

V8


Many of the businesses occupying their premises will see large drops in their incomes. Landlords are going to have to share this pain, in the same way that lenders to landlords will need to take their share.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#291910

Postby richfool » March 18th, 2020, 10:02 am

jonesa1 wrote:
88V8 wrote:Suggestions today that distressed cos should have a three month rent holiday.

Ahhh, those evil landlords, expecting rent.

V8


Many of the businesses occupying their premises will see large drops in their incomes. Landlords are going to have to share this pain, in the same way that lenders to landlords will need to take their share.

I would think that very much less likely where the tenants are large organisations like Insurance Coys, Banks or Government Depts.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#292024

Postby richfool » March 18th, 2020, 3:04 pm

RGL currently 53p!!

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Re: Regional REIT.

#292059

Postby Ed69 » March 18th, 2020, 5:18 pm

richfool wrote:RGL currently 53p!!


My guess would be that some of the open ended trusts have stopped redemptions for an unknown period and some investors have panicked and sold all their property trusts. The ones I bought today just under 53p will help bring my average down a bit. Currently I reckon a theoretical divi of 13.1% and a NAV discount of 44% at the closing price of 64p. Theoretical divi because who knows what will happen over the next 6 months or so.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298517

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » April 7th, 2020, 8:36 am

Mildly nervous that RGL has tanked and staying at a crazy price. Have I missed something or have the blue chip tenants all stopped paying rent on their office space?

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298558

Postby richfool » April 7th, 2020, 10:14 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Mildly nervous that RGL has tanked and staying at a crazy price. Have I missed something or have the blue chip tenants all stopped paying rent on their office space?

I have the same thoughts. Noting that RGL has a very low exposure to retail, I am wondering if Mr Market thinks there will be a reduction in demand for office space and industrial units too, along with pressure to renegotiate rents downwards. Having to work from home may adjust paradigms and perhaps cause some parts of business to review whether they really need large office premises.

I'm still holding, along with Warehouse REIT.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298580

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » April 7th, 2020, 11:06 am

richfool wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Mildly nervous that RGL has tanked and staying at a crazy price. Have I missed something or have the blue chip tenants all stopped paying rent on their office space?

I have the same thoughts. Noting that RGL has a very low exposure to retail, I am wondering if Mr Market thinks there will be a reduction in demand for office space and industrial units too, along with pressure to renegotiate rents downwards. Having to work from home may adjust paradigms and perhaps cause some parts of business to review whether they really need large office premises.

I'm still holding, along with Warehouse REIT.

You are undoubtedly correct. But changes in working practices will mostly revert back. There's obviously going to be some changes in office space requirements but I believe they will be at the margins not in the mainstream. I have faith in the RGL management who will undoubtedly make the best of the hand they have been dealt. I think it will include some asset refurbishment for resale. They have an excellent track record of that too. I have no concerns beyond that which I may not know about.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298594

Postby Gerry557 » April 7th, 2020, 11:48 am

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Mildly nervous that RGL has tanked and staying at a crazy price. Have I missed something or have the blue chip tenants all stopped paying rent on their office space?


I think the general uncertainty and the likely hood of companies struggling to pay rent will keep this depressed for a bit longer yet. Know one knows how all the tenants will fair but most will be worse off one way or another

I suspect that some will require some assistance, reduced rents, holidays, or deferred payments going forward and its how they manage this aspect going forwards. I still think they will defer or cut a quarter of divis to hold cash pending on how this pans out. Was surprised that this one went ahead

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298597

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » April 7th, 2020, 11:59 am

Gerry557 wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:Mildly nervous that RGL has tanked and staying at a crazy price. Have I missed something or have the blue chip tenants all stopped paying rent on their office space?


I think the general uncertainty and the likely hood of companies struggling to pay rent will keep this depressed for a bit longer yet. Know one knows how all the tenants will fair but most will be worse off one way or another

I suspect that some will require some assistance, reduced rents, holidays, or deferred payments going forward and its how they manage this aspect going forwards. I still think they will defer or cut a quarter of divis to hold cash pending on how this pans out. Was surprised that this one went ahead

Nobody knows. Perhaps you are right. Though take a look at the mainstay anchor tenants in the RGL portfolio. They don't get much deeper blue. And I am fully confident that if/when the time comes to enhance and move on some of the portfolio, the management will do a great job. The only reason I have not bought more RGL recently, is I already have far too much of it.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#298922

Postby richfool » April 8th, 2020, 11:23 am

Just spotted this re Tritax Big Box trimming its dividend:

viewtopic.php?f=87&t=22848

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Re: Regional REIT.

#305822

Postby jonesa1 » May 5th, 2020, 12:35 pm

Announcement today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 27900.html

"Positive Rent Collection & Asset Management Update"

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Re: Regional REIT.

#305934

Postby shetland » May 5th, 2020, 10:19 pm

jonesa1 wrote:Announcement today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 27900.html

"Positive Rent Collection & Asset Management Update"


I am surprised this positive update didn’t get a better response in the markets

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Re: Regional REIT.

#306047

Postby Gerry557 » May 6th, 2020, 11:18 am

shetland wrote:
jonesa1 wrote:Announcement today: https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 27900.html

"Positive Rent Collection & Asset Management Update"


I am surprised this positive update didn’t get a better response in the markets



With the outlook for the economy looking rather sad many think it might only be a matter of time before this positive becomes less so. They have already mentioned assisting some, how long before more are added.

There are some relatively secure renters but some will go bust and even if its not in here, any glut will lead to rent prices stalling for a while. Let's hope it's a V not an L recovery. Some dividend is better than none but like most people and companies with outgoings, saving some cash for the unknown might become the default position.

Will we start having spending policies next. Government to force banks to issue dividends might be the next set of policies

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Re: Regional REIT.

#306079

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » May 6th, 2020, 12:38 pm

Really, given RGL's market, that's a great update and it reinforces my opinion about the quality of the REIT management. I was worried about since it's the only income stock I own that might pay me a decent dividend still (Oh, L&G too, so one more). I am hopeful. If this isn't a screaming buy opportunity, I really do not understand what would be.

RVF - Overweight in RGL stock, breathing a sight of relief today.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308206

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » May 13th, 2020, 11:49 am

Anyone any idea why RGL has dropped like a stone this morning? I can't see any news since 5th May when the company were upbeat about rent collections.

RVF

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308244

Postby jonesa1 » May 13th, 2020, 1:03 pm

Nothing obvious, other than worries about long term valuations and rents for the properties they own. Pre-COVID their low exposure to retail was looking good, now their high exposure to office space is looking more risky. Many businesses have shown they can work perfectly well with people out of the office, will they ever return to expecting bums on seats 5 days a week? Will demand hold up?

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308251

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » May 13th, 2020, 1:13 pm

jonesa1 wrote:Nothing obvious, other than worries about long term valuations and rents for the properties they own. Pre-COVID their low exposure to retail was looking good, now their high exposure to office space is looking more risky. Many businesses have shown they can work perfectly well with people out of the office, will they ever return to expecting bums on seats 5 days a week? Will demand hold up?

Well, having worked from home along with a couple of hundred others in the company I am workng for the last couple of months - Most folks seem to find it a generally good experience but still want to return to the office ASAP. I don't foresee the kind of instant sea change that's being mooted. But it will have an effect at the margins, for sure. Given the blue chip nature of most RGL lease holders, I expect a slow shift anyway whatever happens. I still believe in the RGL management.

RVF

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308257

Postby jonesa1 » May 13th, 2020, 1:39 pm

Before retiring, I worked for a large multi-national blue-chip. For many years they had been realising cost reductions (in the absence of growing revenue the execs had to do something to make sure they collected their bonuses from increasing EPS), in part by reducing office space, with most people now either working from client sites, or from home. I suspect a lot of companies will be looking at ways to mitigate the revenue impact of COVID and one way could be to cut office space (or use that threat to negotiate lower rents) and allow people the flexibility to work from home several days per week (encouraged by only having enough desks for a percentage of the staff). Too soon to know how much (if any) impact this will have on property companies, but there's now more awareness of this risk, which could be what's pushing RGL's valuation down. I made a decision yesterday (time will tell if it was a good one) to sell out of RGL (sold at 77.8p), on the basis that there are other areas (in my case global ITs) that I think have better medium and long term growth prospects, in particular I'm not convinced that rental income will be sustainable (short & medium term impact from the coming recession, longer term risk that changes to working patterns will accelerate). It means my income has taken a hit, but I had some headroom before COVID and regular expenses are well down at the moment.

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308258

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » May 13th, 2020, 1:47 pm

Thanks, that's useful thinking. My faith in RGL, that could easily be misplaced, is that the RGL management have demonstrated several times an ability to spend wisely on refurbishing property and selling it on. Very profitably. This may or may not become a more regular feature going forward. Offices don't always have to remain offices for ever. Admittedly, it's going to take time for this to work through.

My average buy price on a substatial (for me) holding of RGL is 89p. I guess I could sell and recycle into a stock that has fallen further and may bounce back stronger. But.......... RGL is a key income play for me. I'd have to think long and hard bailing out, I think.

RVF

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Re: Regional REIT.

#308263

Postby jonesa1 » May 13th, 2020, 2:02 pm

This is worth a read: https://www.youinvest.co.uk/articles/in ... lues-slide

Today's RGL fall is probably contagion from the response to Land Securities results and cancellation of their 4Q dividend. General doom and gloom in the sector, which may be over-blown (or not!).


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