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When should we get greedy?

Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started
BitterLemon
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#293440

Postby BitterLemon » March 23rd, 2020, 1:17 pm

Interesting thread.

I note that the ftse 100 seems to have found support at just above 5000 despite an increased needs for isolation being rolled out by the government.

Curious to know for those who are buying back in, whether en mass or drip feeding, are you explicitly biasing any particular geographies?

Avoiding the US for a while until it corrects downward more seems wise to me. Though while UK has had a more sizable correction brexit hinders my medium term enthusiasm to buy it.

JDot
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#293645

Postby JDot » March 24th, 2020, 10:38 am

It seems strange why the ftse 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's. The economy is dying and the market is rallying?
Why?

Itsallaguess
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#293647

Postby Itsallaguess » March 24th, 2020, 10:45 am

JDot wrote:
It seems strange why the FTSE 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's.

The economy is dying and the market is rallying?


Markets are forward-looking, and these global lockdowns are likely to signal the beginning of the end of this phase of rapid infection rates, and could, if successful and correctly wound down at some future point in time, allow this virus pandemic to be managed without overwhelming local health services and thus causing unnecessarily large and widespread fatalities...

Italy has seen some encouraging numbers coming out following a similar two week period of lockdowns, so hopefully we will experience the same benefit once those lagging indicators start to filter through in a couple of weeks...

The economy isn't dying - it's ultimately protecting itself from a potentially worse outcome...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

colin
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#293649

Postby colin » March 24th, 2020, 10:47 am

JDot wrote:It seems strange why the ftse 100 is rallying on the news of total lockdown to include all but essential business's. The economy is dying and the market is rallying?
Why?

Maybe expectations of world wide government stimulus, did not Macron call for co-ordinated action from governments? or maybe just short sellers buying back the shares they sold previously who knows is there ever just one reason for market moves?

bluedonkey
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#293674

Postby bluedonkey » March 24th, 2020, 12:10 pm

I think it's important to note that today's rally (24 March) is puny compared to recent falls. At present, I'm discounting it as not predictive of a prolonged upturn.

GoSeigen
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294198

Postby GoSeigen » March 25th, 2020, 6:46 pm

Well, I've just done something I never thought I'd do, which is to open a Sep S&P straddle with implied vol at 45 on the contract. I think it's just extraordinary that with the S&P up about 20% in days VIX is still above 60 and highly inverted term structure. I am guessing there's a lot more volatility around the corner, whether a short squeeze or another huge slide.

I am still very short vol/time value in Apr and May contracts. Interesting to see what these Sep straddles will do.


GS

ReformedCharacter
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294202

Postby ReformedCharacter » March 25th, 2020, 6:55 pm

bluedonkey wrote:I think it's important to note that today's rally (24 March) is puny compared to recent falls. At present, I'm discounting it as not predictive of a prolonged upturn.

Have to agree, those that believe we've reached some kind of 'bottom' are likely to be disappointed IMO.

RC

bluedonkey
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294228

Postby bluedonkey » March 25th, 2020, 8:05 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Well, I've just done something I never thought I'd do, which is to open a Sep S&P straddle with implied vol at 45 on the contract. I think it's just extraordinary that with the S&P up about 20% in days VIX is still above 60 and highly inverted term structure. I am guessing there's a lot more volatility around the corner, whether a short squeeze or another huge slide.

I am still very short vol/time value in Apr and May contracts. Interesting to see what these Sep straddles will do.


GS

I suspect hardly anyone here knows what you mean.

swill453
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294235

Postby swill453 » March 25th, 2020, 8:16 pm

bluedonkey wrote:I suspect hardly anyone here knows what you mean.

I suspect flagging that up will serve little purpose.

Scott.

BrummieDave
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294356

Postby BrummieDave » March 26th, 2020, 9:03 am

GoSeigen wrote:Well, I've just done something I never thought I'd do, which is to open a Sep S&P straddle with implied vol at 45 on the contract. I think it's just extraordinary that with the S&P up about 20% in days VIX is still above 60 and highly inverted term structure. I am guessing there's a lot more volatility around the corner, whether a short squeeze or another huge slide.

I am still very short vol/time value in Apr and May contracts. Interesting to see what these Sep straddles will do.


GS


Me too... :?

GoSeigen
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294419

Postby GoSeigen » March 26th, 2020, 11:30 am

bluedonkey wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Well, I've just done something I never thought I'd do, which is to open a Sep S&P straddle with implied vol at 45 on the contract. I think it's just extraordinary that with the S&P up about 20% in days VIX is still above 60 and highly inverted term structure. I am guessing there's a lot more volatility around the corner, whether a short squeeze or another huge slide.

I am still very short vol/time value in Apr and May contracts. Interesting to see what these Sep straddles will do.


GS

I suspect hardly anyone here knows what you mean.


I gave swill453 a brief explanation further up the thread and there is Google for anyone interested. Let's also not underestimate the knowledge of some Fools. There was a pretty active options thread on TMF/TLF a couple of years back.

When the market is moving it is often more productive to leave off the underlying and trade the derivatives. Volatility is extraordinarily high now so this really is a once-in-a-generation trade.


GS

bungeejumper
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294432

Postby bungeejumper » March 26th, 2020, 12:15 pm

GoSeigen wrote:Volatility is extraordinarily high now so this really is a once-in-a-generation trade.

Hmmmm, remind me where I've heard that before? :lol:

I sort-of agree with you, but in a much less technical way. Have been in the sector for nearly forty years (no, I'm not saying exactly how), and my "macro gut feel" for what's reasonable and what isn't has served me very well over the twenty years that I've been actively investing for myself. Reversion to the mean has been a particularly good friend. So has the Shiller CAPE formula, which still says the S&P is one and a half times as expensive as its historical median. :|

But........

These are exceptional times, and an awful lot of things have gone out of date since 1987, which was the last big crisis (in my book, anyway). Enhanced international access to portfolios, instant online access, and better control and use of derivatives, are all counterbalanced to varying extents by other factors that have kicked away all the traditional assumptions about what we "should" be able to expect. Such as open-ended funds (a potentially precarious shifting ballast in the middle of the ship?), easy shorting, and of course the emergence of a powerful China, the euro and cryptocurrencies, none of which were even there in 1987.

In other words, all the basic assumptions are up for grabs these days. If you've got a better grasp of the new fundamentals and you think this is a golden moment to use the contortions in the Vix, then good luck. Personally, I'm still focused on the possibility that quite a large chunk of mankind might be in danger of disappearance, and that the US might be at the centre of that. And that we really know damn all about the epidemiology of this CV19 thing.

What the heck, I'm probably 30 years older than you. :lol: Can't afford to go large on once-in-a-generation trades. Good luck, and maybe we'll compare notes in the autumn?

BJ

PinkDalek
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294472

Postby PinkDalek » March 26th, 2020, 2:06 pm

The sub-title for this particular board being Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started.

Just sayin'.

Itsallaguess
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294474

Postby Itsallaguess » March 26th, 2020, 2:11 pm

PinkDalek wrote:
The sub-title for this particular board being Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started.

Just sayin'.


Given that this thread is already 6 pages long, I think it's unlikely that people are going to stop contributing to it PD, also given the thread context and the current market gyrations, so if you can think of somewhere more appropriate for it to live, then reporting the thread and asking one of the moderators to move it there might be the best alternative, perhaps?

I agree with you, by the way, that the 'How do I invest' board is probably not the most appropriate place for it to continue existing..

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

PinkDalek
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294498

Postby PinkDalek » March 26th, 2020, 3:05 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Given that this thread is already 6 pages long, I think it's unlikely that people are going to stop contributing to it PD ..


Yes, fully acknowledged, and my comment was only a gentle reminder as to the purpose of this particular board. I don't intend to report as the OP's question was probably valid for beginners (not saying the OP is one or not) and there are so many other places discussing the current issues I wouldn't know where to start.

Here's a similar one at Share Ideas commenced 9 March:

Is anyone panicking yet ?
viewtopic.php?p=289330#p289330

Degsy67
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294555

Postby Degsy67 » March 26th, 2020, 6:47 pm

Tongue in cheek for those ex-TMF HYP fools with a long memory...

Q. When should we get greedy?

A. Well I’m waiting for Vodafone to dip below 100p to buy back in!

Closed today around 113p. Dipped to 98p briefly on 16th March.

Not a suggestion to buy. Just couldn’t resist the LOL.

:D

Degsy

GoSeigen
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294637

Postby GoSeigen » March 27th, 2020, 5:49 am

Certain Fools have objected to my posts here (and guilty as charged, I initially replied to a post without checking which board). The TMF Options board did not survive the move to TLF. However I'm happy to have my OT posts from this thread moved to this old Options and Spread Betting thread:

viewtopic.php?f=78&t=4546


GS
P.S. I have self-reported.

JDot
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294648

Postby JDot » March 27th, 2020, 7:39 am

GoSeigen wrote:Certain Fools have objected to my posts here (and guilty as charged, I initially replied to a post without checking which board). The TMF Options board did not survive the move to TLF. However I'm happy to have my OT posts from this thread moved to this old Options and Spread Betting thread:

viewtopic.php?f=78&t=4546


GS
P.S. I have self-reported.

Everybody is welcome to keep posting on this thread. I am enjoying reading everyones contributions.

The main point of this thread is to pool the knowledge of everyone.

This link is interesting from this perspective
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Age

JDot
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294654

Postby JDot » March 27th, 2020, 8:00 am

JDot wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Certain Fools have objected to my posts here (and guilty as charged, I initially replied to a post without checking which board). The TMF Options board did not survive the move to TLF. However I'm happy to have my OT posts from this thread moved to this old Options and Spread Betting thread:

viewtopic.php?f=78&t=4546


GS
P.S. I have self-reported.

Everybody is welcome to keep posting on this thread. I am enjoying reading everyones contributions.

The main point of this thread is to pool the knowledge of everyone.

This link is interesting from this perspective
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Information_Age


Below is the correct link intended

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iOucwX7Z1HU

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wisdom_of_the_crowd

dspp
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Re: When should we get greedy?

#294776

Postby dspp » March 27th, 2020, 12:26 pm

JDot wrote:
JDot wrote:
GoSeigen wrote:Certain Fools have objected to my posts here (and guilty as charged, I initially replied to a post without checking which board). The TMF Options board did not survive the move to TLF. However I'm happy to have my OT posts from this thread moved to this old Options and Spread Betting thread:

viewtopic.php?f=78&t=4546


GS
P.S. I have self-reported.

Everybody is welcome to keep posting on this thread. I am enjoying reading everyones contributions.

The main point of this thread is to pool the knowledge of everyone.


Moderator Message:
It can all stay here, sometimes the soup is richer that way. regards, dspp


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