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Bonds

Investment discussion for beginners. Why you should invest your money, get help getting started
Gpop321
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Re: Bonds

#665094

Postby Gpop321 » May 21st, 2024, 1:50 pm

Newroad wrote:Thanks, GPop321.

That's the one I suspected you meant, but I couldn't reconcile its asset allocation with what you describe above.

From here: https://www.fidelity.co.uk/factsheet-data/factsheet/GB00BJS8SJ34-fidelity-index-world-fund-p-acc/portfolio

it appears to be

    97.31% equities
    2.53% cash
    0.10% bonds
    0.05% other

with a 0.01% rounding error.

What is the source of your alternate breakdown?

Regards, Newroad


Ah, my source is Hargreaves Lansdowne (from whom I bought the tracker). Just Google "hargreaves lansdown fidelity tracker" and it's the top result :)

Newroad
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Re: Bonds

#665097

Postby Newroad » May 21st, 2024, 2:02 pm

No problems, GPop123.

I would trust Fidelity itself, rather than HL. However, it could be that HL is somehow "looking through" at underlying assets, e.g. via MorningStar's X-Ray tool, and seeing something underneath.

Nevertheless, the more likely explanation (Occam's Razor) is the HL is simply wrong and/or out of date.

Regards, Newroad

Gpop321
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Re: Bonds

#665098

Postby Gpop321 » May 21st, 2024, 2:04 pm

Newroad wrote:No problems, GPop123.

I would trust Fidelity itself, rather than HL. However, it could be that HL is somehow "looking through" at underlying assets, e.g. via MorningStar's X-Ray tool, and seeing something underneath.

Nevertheless, the more likely explanation (Occam's Razor) is the HL is simply wrong and/or out of date.

Regards, Newroad


I queried them (HL) on this, and they assured me this is current. Either way, the tracker has <10% defensive assets by the looks of it, which I guess is their way of reflecting/tracking the world index?

londoninvestor
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Re: Bonds

#665099

Postby londoninvestor » May 21st, 2024, 2:11 pm

Gpop321 wrote:
Newroad wrote:No problems, GPop123.

I would trust Fidelity itself, rather than HL. However, it could be that HL is somehow "looking through" at underlying assets, e.g. via MorningStar's X-Ray tool, and seeing something underneath.

Nevertheless, the more likely explanation (Occam's Razor) is the HL is simply wrong and/or out of date.

Regards, Newroad


I queried them (HL) on this, and they assured me this is current. Either way, the tracker has <10% defensive assets by the looks of it, which I guess is their way of reflecting/tracking the world index?


The HL data looks bonkers!

Just getting back to first principles: the largest equity holdings in a world tracker will be the world's largest companies by market cap. Microsoft, Apple, nVidia etc. That's what you see in Fidelity's data. But HL has (ignoring the "Liqudity Fund" which is effectively cash) the following as the largest equity holdings (0.22% each):

IQVIA HOLDINGS
PROSUS N.V.
Crown Castle International Corporation Crown Castle
PUBLIC STORAGE OPERATING COMPANY
ATLAS COPCO AB
PALANTIR TECH INC
GRAINGER(W.W.) INC


There's no way that can possibly be correct.

(Footnote: the situation where you might legitimately see something like this is in a swap-based ETF that gets its economic exposures mostly through derivatives, as discussed for example in this post. However, tracker OEICs don't tend to work in that way, and digging through the Fidelity fund's annual report confirms that it does very little with derivatives, it just owns a bunch of equities.)

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Re: Bonds

#665102

Postby Newroad » May 21st, 2024, 2:41 pm

Indeed, LondonInvestor.

[GPop123] If you move from the "At A Glance" tab from HL to the "Key Features and Documents" one and from there pick the "Fund Factsheet", you will see what you should (and we) see.

Regards, Newroad

Gpop321
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Re: Bonds

#665105

Postby Gpop321 » May 21st, 2024, 2:48 pm

Newroad wrote:Indeed, LondonInvestor.

[GPop123] If you move from the "At A Glance" tab from HL to the "Key Features and Documents" one and from there pick the "Fund Factsheet", you will see what you should (and we) see.

Regards, Newroad



Just looked - I can't see the figures you mentioned anywhere in the fund factsheet? May I ask which page?

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Re: Bonds

#665107

Postby Newroad » May 21st, 2024, 2:50 pm

Hi GPop123.

The "real" Top 10 stocks as noted by LondonInvestor are noted on p4.

Regards, Newroad

EthicsGradient
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Re: Bonds

#665109

Postby EthicsGradient » May 21st, 2024, 3:08 pm

I would suggest the "at a glance" HL page shows the holdings for an equal weight index with about 500 constituents, not the MSCI World index. Its country weights (US 40%, Japan 11% ...) aren't like any market-cap global tracker I've seen, either.

LooseCannon101
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Re: Bonds

#665129

Postby LooseCannon101 » May 21st, 2024, 6:09 pm

Gpop321 wrote:So I've read Tim Hale's book - great info!

One takeaway was: invest your age in bonds, and the rest in equities.

Now I've got a few index tracker fund candidates to cover the equity side of things, but I'm not sure where I should be looking to cover the bonds side of things.

I saw a few bonds products on Vanguard, though they look quite bumpy and unappealing. Is there a "go to" place to buy bonds to complete my portfolio? Any recommendations?

Cheers in advance
G


Tim Hale's book was originally written in 2006 and so the information might have changed.

Tim's day job is to give ready-made advice to sales agents (financial advisers). Most wealthy clients get a bit jumpy when stock markets around the world tank for a few months - not uncommon on a 10+ year time span.

A client might look elsewhere for advice if his or her investments go down by 20% or more. Losing a client entails losing income, which advisers absolutely hate. Thus, the need for cash (savings accounts) and bonds which provide little in the way of growth.

If you can control your emotions and keep up a regular share savings plan through thick and thin, then much higher long-term returns are achievable.

AJC5001
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Re: Bonds

#665158

Postby AJC5001 » May 21st, 2024, 8:14 pm

LooseCannon101 wrote:Tim Hale's book was originally written in 2006 and so the information might have changed.

Which is probably why the current Fourth Edition was produced in 2023. :)

Adrian

Gpop321
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Re: Bonds

#665163

Postby Gpop321 » May 21st, 2024, 8:38 pm

AJC5001 wrote:
LooseCannon101 wrote:Tim Hale's book was originally written in 2006 and so the information might have changed.

Which is probably why the current Fourth Edition was produced in 2023. :)

Adrian


Yeah, and to be fair, one message of the book is that it is long term patterns that matter. i.e the last 100 years, which show average returns of 4% on equities, should be our yardstick (as opposed to getting fixated on volatility in certain shorter periods, such as between 2006 and now)

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Re: Bonds

#665186

Postby futurmagnussen » May 22nd, 2024, 8:17 am

I had a funny experience with bonds :lol: i think my luck does not work that way.

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Re: Bonds

#665202

Postby JohnW » May 22nd, 2024, 9:43 am

I don't have Hale's book to hand, but I suspect you've misquoted him about 'age in bonds'. Bonds fluctuate in value less than equities. Does it matter to someone aged 90 who has £5M in equities to cover £5k expenses per year to have all equities? Of course not; you have to apply 'rules of thumb' with some common sense; they're a starting point for thinking, not the end solution.
Investing in bond funds is best done with an understanding of the risks. Hang on, that applies to anything.....Bond/fund risks are: credit (they default); duration (the longer, the further the value falls when interest rates rise); inflation if they're not linkers; currency with unhedged foreign bonds.
You can't do much about the first beyond sticking with stable governments, but you can do a lot about the second, and you should duration match your spending with the fund(s)' duration. All the hand wringing about an unprecedented bond rout in 2022 could have been avoided with duration matching our bond investments, which is how you minimise duration risk with bonds; which means you'll miss the big gains possible, but you shouldn't be hit hard by the big falls. Sounds familiar with investing. The only surprise in 2022 should have been that interest rates could rise so quickly, so much; but where was the regulation or theorem that that couldn't happen?
The interest rate on linkers can't be derisory compared to the interest rate on nominal bonds. Any time the return on one investment is better than another, assuming risk is similar, money will move from the derisory return investment to the non-derisory return investment until both returns are about the same. Some of us are right to stay away from bonds.
Global stocks have returned about 4.9%/year real over the last 30 years. Any carefully chosen IT that gives 4%/year or more in dividends and has the prospect of matching inflation of 2.5%/year is going to be doing unrealistically well I'd suggest.
Bonds have beaten stocks over longer terms, 10+ was mentioned. Less often the reverse happens: 2000 to 2016 US investment grade bonds beat US stocks, with much less volatility. Why wouldn't that happen again, and is 16 years some limit?`
The idea that for retirement income equities should be dividend focussed to reduce the sequence of returns risk has been repeatedly challenged as the 'dividend fallacy'. Read an explanation here to make up your own mind https://www.evidenceinvestor.com/confus ... dividends/
Hale warns about short term patterns, correctly. But if it takes 100 years to establish a reliable pattern, will you be investing for 100 years to benefit from knowing the pattern? Worse yet, if there are actually three distinct 100 year patterns we are part the way working through, what use is knowing one of those patterns? Look at the past, but be careful concluding what it suggests about the future.

Gpop321
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Re: Bonds

#665300

Postby Gpop321 » May 22nd, 2024, 5:44 pm

JohnW wrote:I don't have Hale's book to hand, but I suspect you've misquoted him about 'age in bonds'.


It's literally "own your age in bonds, the rest in equities."

...as a gentle introductory pointer to the role of bonds and equities tho, not as a hard and fast rule.

Definitely agree with your point that 100 years stats aren't bullet proof, but it makes more sense than trusting a smaller sample period, surely?

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Re: Bonds

#665329

Postby GeoffF100 » May 22nd, 2024, 7:31 pm

Gpop321 wrote:
JohnW wrote:I don't have Hale's book to hand, but I suspect you've misquoted him about 'age in bonds'.


It's literally "own your age in bonds, the rest in equities."

...as a gentle introductory pointer to the role of bonds and equities tho, not as a hard and fast rule.

Definitely agree with your point that 100 years stats aren't bullet proof, but it makes more sense than trusting a smaller sample period, surely?

That is 100 years stats for the two most successful markets, during a strong period of economic growth. The next 100 years for the global market will not necessarily mirror that. Apart form the current high valuations, we have climate change, a war brewing in Europe and perhaps in the far east. We can only say that we do not know. The optimists won over the last 100 years, the pessimists may win over the next 100 years. How much money do you need to make? What is the lowest risk way of making it?

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Re: Bonds

#665340

Postby GeoffF100 » May 22nd, 2024, 9:24 pm

Thanks to McQuarry et all we now have more reliable statistics for the US market in the 100 years from 1820. Bonds did much better relative to equities than in the next 100 years. Critics say that was a long time ago and conditions have changed, but conditions will be different in the next 100 years.

The "your age in bonds" rule applies to those who are stashing money away for retirement or drawing down that money after retirement. It is also assumed that that retirement income is necessary.

My situation is different. I am retired with financial resources far greater than I need. My equity percentage does not matter. I follow another rule of thumb: "if there is not other way to decide go for 60% equities and 40% bonds". The market as a whole is less than 40% equities, so I am heavily overweighting equities. A 60/40 portfolio is possible only if others underweight equities and overweight bonds. There is a danger that I will have to pay too high a price for equities to get others to give them up in favour of bonds. (Actually, I bought most of my equities a long time ago, and I am just sitting on them, but that is another matter.)

EthicsGradient
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Re: Bonds

#665343

Postby EthicsGradient » May 23rd, 2024, 12:02 am

GeoffF100 wrote:I follow another rule of thumb: "if there is not other way to decide go for 60% equities and 40% bonds". The market as a whole is less than 40% equities, so I am heavily overweighting equities. A 60/40 portfolio is possible only if others underweight equities and overweight bonds.

Is that correct? A quick google implies they're closer:

Global fixed income markets outstanding decreased 3.2 % Y/Y to $129.8 trillion in 2022, while global long-term fixed income issuance decreased 17.5% to $22.5 trillion.

Global equity market capitalization decreased 16.2% Y/Y to $101.2 trillion in 2022, as global equity issuance drops to $0.4 trillion, a decrease of 61.2% Y/Y.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fact-book/

which would be 44% equities, 56% bonds.

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Re: Bonds

#665351

Postby Bubblesofearth » May 23rd, 2024, 5:54 am

GeoffF100 wrote:
My situation is different. I am retired with financial resources far greater than I need. My equity percentage does not matter. I follow another rule of thumb: "if there is not other way to decide go for 60% equities and 40% bonds". The market as a whole is less than 40% equities, so I am heavily overweighting equities. A 60/40 portfolio is possible only if others underweight equities and overweight bonds. There is a danger that I will have to pay too high a price for equities to get others to give them up in favour of bonds. (Actually, I bought most of my equities a long time ago, and I am just sitting on them, but that is another matter.)


This is a nonsense argument. What about other assets such as M2 money? The ratio of M2 money to bonds is about 83:113 so should you hold a respective amount of cash? What about property? Precious metals? Collectables? Crypto?? You can't simply look at the ratio of Global assets and assume that's any indicator whatsoever as to what an investor should do.

You seem to be applying the same faulty passive investing logic that you have used to justify investing in equity trackers. Bit of a man with a hammer?

BoE

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Re: Bonds

#665354

Postby dealtn » May 23rd, 2024, 6:18 am

JohnW wrote: All the hand wringing about an unprecedented bond rout in 2022 could have been avoided with duration matching our bond investments, which is how you minimise duration risk with bonds;


So what duration would have avoided the 2022 rout then?

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Re: Bonds

#665356

Postby GeoffF100 » May 23rd, 2024, 6:48 am

EthicsGradient wrote:
GeoffF100 wrote:I follow another rule of thumb: "if there is not other way to decide go for 60% equities and 40% bonds". The market as a whole is less than 40% equities, so I am heavily overweighting equities. A 60/40 portfolio is possible only if others underweight equities and overweight bonds.

Is that correct? A quick google implies they're closer:

Global fixed income markets outstanding decreased 3.2 % Y/Y to $129.8 trillion in 2022, while global long-term fixed income issuance decreased 17.5% to $22.5 trillion.

Global equity market capitalization decreased 16.2% Y/Y to $101.2 trillion in 2022, as global equity issuance drops to $0.4 trillion, a decrease of 61.2% Y/Y.

https://www.sifma.org/resources/research/fact-book/

which would be 44% equities, 56% bonds.

Yes, perhaps the market's equity percentage is currently a little over 40% rather than a little under. My point is that 60/40 substantially overweights equities at current prices, so someone else has to underweight them. They will do that only if they think they are getting a good deal, but they do not all have the same objectives.


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