Speculative investing

[Archtronics]

Hi folks,
More of a hello than any specfic question, I found the site after a google mistake searching for the motley groan.

Recently started investing (gambling) in a few smaller Aim listed companies I like the sound of, bit more fun than the usual invest in a Vanguard Index you hear from everyone else.

Anyone ever had any decent wins or losses with speculative stocks? and care to share the stories/advice?

ta

[tjh290633]

You will probably find some City Equities former customers with tales to tell of losses galore. I don't know the exact figures, but a high proportion of AIM shares went belly up along the way. The odd one came good

TJH

[monabri]

The odds of punting are not in your favour! You realise it's a gamble - then you probably won't be too disappointed but good luck anyway!

[Urbandreamer]

Anyone ever had any decent wins or losses with speculative stocks? and care to share the stories/advice?

ta

Well I think that you'll find that most people on the Investment board, invest rather than speculate.

That said when I started it was by speculating. My most memorable win was the first share that I bought. I used half my tax free allowance to buy a single share that was trading on its high for the year. That can ONLY be speculating. Some months later I sold it having doubled my money.

The share was the clothing retailer Next and, the tax free wrapper was called a PEP, AIM didn't exist and times were very different in 91.

Over the decades since I have both invested and speculated. The two require very different mind sets and neither is a certain money maker.

I would however disagree with monabri, or at least with his bald statement. Speculating on sound companies in a rising market carries no more risk than investing. I suspect that either the fact that you are talking about AIM, where there are a significant number of companies that are less than sound, or there is an assumption that you will not investigate the companies that you choose to speculate on, is the reason for the statement.

One of the real problems with speculation is that it's more expensive than investing, because you are likely to have to trade more.

Spread betting is a LOT more expensive, but you can speculate on unsound companies in falling markets. I no longer SB and didn't finish doing so in the black. However my other memorable speculation was betting that HMV shares would fall. It was fairly obvious that they would, and they did, netting me a nice profit. I lost money betting on Fx, but it's not memorable because my heart wasn't in it by that point.

Of course I have lost money and made wrong choices, but it's difficult to identify those that were speculations. I lost a lot on RBS in the financial crash, but I thought that I was investing. I also had shares in a company that went into liquidation, but again I'm not convinced that I bought it speculatively.

Can I recommend that you read up and study your chosen subject in addition to researching your targets.

The Zulu principle book is about investing, but it's arguments are JUST as valid if you choose to speculate.
The Zurich Axioms book covers the important differences between speculating and investing, trying to lay out some rules for speculating.

[Archtronics]

Thanks folks,

I understand the odds aren’t in a my favour, which is fair enough it’s money I can afford to lose as it probably would’ve gone on the horses otherwise.

Not sure spread bettings for me looks like it requires more attention than I’m will to give.

I will certainly have a look at those two books, thank you for the suggestion.

Ta

[formoverfunction]

Yes, Seedrs & Crowdcube.

Besides the tax savings, I've had a few give me returns x2/3/4

Certainly not an area for widows and orphans, but small punts are possible and it can be very social.

Off platform I make larger investments in start-ups. But the mixture of communal and small bets makes the platforms more fun.

[GoSeigen]

Thanks folks,

I understand the odds aren’t in a my favour, which is fair enough it’s money I can afford to lose as it probably would’ve gone on the horses otherwise.

Not sure spread bettings for me looks like it requires more attention than I’m will to give.

I will certainly have a look at those two books, thank you for the suggestion.

Ta

If you want a quick way to make a million try bitcoin. The Lemon Fool has its own experts on it, there is a long thread about the topic here, the thread owner has already retired to a pile in Somerset if I recall correctly:

viewtopic.php?f=7&t=567


Good luck.


GS
P.S. Thinking, a major distinction between speculation and investment is that one requires effort, the other doesn't...

[XFool]

Anyone ever had any decent wins or losses with speculative stocks? and care to share the stories/advice?

head over to ADVFN. Everyone there makes a fortune trading penny stocks. And even if by some incredible back luck they do pick a loser, they sell it just before the real plummet occurs and reinvest the proceeds into yet another winner. Amazing.

They all make a mint spreadbetting too.

Yet still have time over to discuss all the latest 'conspiracies' going down. They are a talented lot.

[marronier]

"Investing " in AIM or so called " penny " stocks ( ALL UK stocks are penny quoted stocks ) is for mugs who would fish in a bucket and hope to catch a whale.

The FTSE 100 represents 82% of the market's capitalisation ,with the FTSE 250 at 11% while the remaining 1000 or so stocks a mere 7% , which gives a rough idea as to the investment ratio ( 82:11: 07 ) of a viable portfolio for the novice investor.

[Urbandreamer]

"Investing " in AIM or so called " penny " stocks ( ALL UK stocks are penny quoted stocks ) is for mugs who would fish in a bucket and hope to catch a whale.

The FTSE 100 represents 82% of the market's capitalisation ,with the FTSE 250 at 11% while the remaining 1000 or so stocks a mere 7% , which gives a rough idea as to the investment ratio ( 82:11: 07 ) of a viable portfolio for the novice investor.

It might be an idea to look at why people invest in smaller companies and if, historically, this has been a effective stratergy.

Here is a link to one article.
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/s ... -companies

Here is another.
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ch ... mall-caps/

Both articles seem to sugest that companies with smaller capitalisations can provide good returns for shareholders, ignoring for a moment if they are main market or AIM quoted.

I confess that I seldom buy AIM shares myself, but I certainly don't automatically reject them.

Indeed I have held shares in the AIM quoted Renew Holdings for four years. To me they seem a well run company that provides needed services and are willing to invest in their future. Isn't that the sort of thing that "investors" are supposed to look for?

Personally I always start with what a company does and is going to do, the "price" per share doesn't enter into my consideration.

The RNWH share price is about 400p per share, significantly more than the price per share of much larger SSE. I suggest that you try a comparison over 4 years of the preformance of both and think about which you would rather have owned in hindsight. I owned both!

[OLTB]

"Investing " in AIM or so called " penny " stocks ( ALL UK stocks are penny quoted stocks ) is for mugs who would fish in a bucket and hope to catch a whale.

On 3rd April I posted here about FireAngel Safety (FA.) viewtopic.php?f=33&t=17071 and as of today am up 19.38%. I'm not saying it isn't risky, and it could fall on its @rse, but as always, diversification should reduce risk.

Cheers, OLTB (Captain Ahab).

[PinkDalek]

"Investing " in AIM or so called " penny " stocks ( ALL UK stocks are penny quoted stocks ) is for mugs who would fish in a bucket and hope to catch a whale.

I've no idea why you seem to believe all AIM shares are penny stocks but well done in your attempt at making disparaging remarks about all of us who invest in AIM, for a variety of reasons.

Perhaps you'd be kind enough to point to one of your share investment related posts over, say, the last 12 months. on The Lemon Fool.

[Archtronics]

I guess I should update this with some of the stuff I bought at the start of this month.

I will start with the loser

CAP-XX -44.6%
Bidstack +123.5%
Scientific digital imaging +25.7%

[DiamondEcho]

So what do you plan to do with your -45% and +123% positions? You do have a plan, or is this 'speculation' well intended gambling, and any outcome can be put down as a useful learning experience, if not a profitable one?
You remind me of me during my brief speculative period; before it went up in smoke. Next I'd 'learned my lesson' and found a stategy, the fore-runner of HYP over on the US Motley Fool site. Stalwarts like Enron, Caterpiller, Bank of America then that went *its-up during the .com,com bust despite not being .com shares; how's that for injustice?
These days give me tortoise over a hare any day, slow and steady, no drama. An end goal and a realistic route to getting there. Don't underestimate it, the lack of drama, I'm waaay more likely to hit my targets than if I'd continued punting on the latest next big thing, you just have to patient, veeery patient.

[Urbandreamer]

These days give me tortoise over a hare any day, slow and steady, no drama. An end goal and a realistic route to getting there. Don't underestimate it, the lack of drama, I'm waaay more likely to hit my targets than if I'd continued punting on the latest next big thing, you just have to patient, veeery patient.

Different people, different natures. Also we all change with time. I loved speculating. Loved, loved, loved it. Investing clearly works, and it's what I mostly do now, but I use to feel that it was soulless. My brief foray into spread betting was so that I could still get the thrill of speculating, while the bulk of my funds were invested. TBH, if I knew a good SB company that didn't have a significant inactivity fees I'd still have an account. It was GREAT! I'm just unwilling to pay the price of a subscription to Sky to enjoy SB.

I think that we should possibly get one thing clear here, it doesn't matter if you are investing or speculating. What matters is that you are right more often than wrong and that the costs don't eat your gains.

I'm now 33% invested in IT's, though I do have tiny punts on small companies who service the gaming industry (KWS) or make detecters for nuclear dirty bombs (KMK). Logically those "punts" are too small to be worth doing (Axiom 1 always play for meaningful stakes), however they feed my need.

[Archtronics]

So what do you plan to do with your -45% and +123% positions? You do have a plan, or is this 'speculation' well intended gambling, and any outcome can be put down as a useful learning experience, if not a profitable one?
You remind me of me during my brief speculative period; before it went up in smoke. Next I'd 'learned my lesson' and found a stategy, the fore-runner of HYP over on the US Motley Fool site. Stalwarts like Enron, Caterpiller, Bank of America then that went *its-up during the .com,com bust despite not being .com shares; how's that for injustice?
These days give me tortoise over a hare any day, slow and steady, no drama. An end goal and a realistic route to getting there. Don't underestimate it, the lack of drama, I'm waaay more likely to hit my targets than if I'd continued punting on the latest next big thing, you just have to patient, veeery patient.

Urbandreamer has summed it up pretty well.

As for my plan its only been a month so I will probably just leave them alone for a while.
I might sell the Bidstack ones if they shoot up any more because

Moderator Message:
DELETED THIS BIT, and if you look at a post by PD on Bidstack a few items later you can probably see why, sorry to be cautious like this but we have the greater good of TLF to think about, regards, dspp

.

[PinkDalek]

I might sell the Bidstack ones if they shoot up any more because while I think its a really smart idea ...

I'm not repeating your last few words, in view of potential defamation issues, but MaraMan touched upon Bidstack here at Share Ideas:

viewtopic.php?p=212370#p212370

There's also this today https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 53851.html and I'm sure you know the share price has fallen by about 25% since 15 April.

[Archtronics]

Ah sorry mods, I will aim to construct my views in a less blunt manner in future.

[Pastcaring]

Hi folks,
More of a hello than any specfic question, I found the site after a google mistake searching for the motley groan.

Recently started investing (gambling) in a few smaller Aim listed companies I like the sound of, bit more fun than the usual invest in a Vanguard Index you hear from everyone else.

Anyone ever had any decent wins or losses with speculative stocks? and care to share the stories/advice?

ta

If you are happy with it do it,it should be fun.I would never follow the consensus of opinion

I would never do that ,but what I do is something that 99% of people are never going to do so why ask them.

APT ( ASX) is one I have highlighted.Gone from what people would call a penny dreadful to a $5 billion dollar company.To me that is momentum trading,same thing basically.

Went from $14 or so when I highlighted it to around $25 now. A short period of time,wonderful for people that do that.Great fun.I didn' t buy them then ,I am not buying any now, no plans at all to buy any in the future .They have never made a profit,they have given no indication that they will make a profit.They have a business plan that I think is ridiculous .Seems to be tulip time to me.

The people making money off it are probably having great fun though,there will not be many of them,why ask anybody else for their opinion.They will be shot down for exactly what you have said,they don' t have a Vanguard fund,they haven' t diversified,they haven' t followed the crowd.

I picked one stock,great return for the last year.Same bullshit,no diversification,no crowd following,no Vanguard fund,must be wrong.

I hate noise and the silly consensus of opinion,we must all do the same thing,we must applaud each other for doing the same boring thing.

When the company floated the noise was unbelievable,the greatest thing since sliced bread,we will all make a fortune,be mad not to buy them.I ran in the opposite direction,not interested.

Watched them for a while wondering when the bubble would burst.Figures looked good,but I still thought bubbles and tulips.

The noise disappeared,I had a bit of spare time so dug a lot deeper into them.Seven years of thinking it' s a bubble,bubbles can last that long.Figures were magnificent,very well run company,directors with a lot of skin in the game for a long time.No huge turnover in the board as panic hits. What I could have bought for $7K for a thousand shares,cost me $ 60K for a thousand shares .

Then the GFC came,the price went down to $17 a share,the crowd that haven' t got a clue what that company does all pat each other on the back .Look ,we didn' t buy them, we are clever.
How they didn' t notice that their well diversified index fund crashed by 50% is beyond me.Why they still deny it is beyond me .
Their well diversified fund has done nothing virtually for the last 12 years.That company has gone from $ 60 to $136.I enjoy riding on the back of a tortoise,the long slow way for me.

Their well diversified fund using the ASX all ords as the benchmark ( 530 companies) has gone from 6000 to to 6300 over the 13 year period.That company went from 6000 ( 100 shares) to 13600 ( same 100 shares). Still a wonderfully well run company,business plan changes as the world changes.Directors stay for the long term,still are told you will put skin in the game

Nobody buys,they still have no idea what they do,the still repeat the same bullshit,must have a Vanguard fund,ask some body that lost money,it's all too risky.

Go and ask somebody that made money,they will take the time to tell you,and answer any question you ask them.Never ask anybody what you should do,the answer will always be negative

Go and have some fun,well done.You can always sell almost at any moment.

[Itsallaguess]

Go and ask somebody that made money, they will take the time to tell you, and answer any question you ask them.

Two blokes in a bookies -

Bloke 1 - I hear that you made a killing on a 2000/1 shot, what a great result!

Bloke 2 - Yep - don't listen to those idiots over there, they'll never make any big money like I have..

Bloke 1 - Well they certainly don't seem to have done as well as you, but can you tell me how I could perhaps gain a similar outcome? I've got some money to put on a horse....

Bloke 2 - First thing - never listen to those sheeple over there, I keep seeing them ripping up their slips - they must keep losing. Not like me, I've done really well.

Bloke 1 - You sure have - can you give me any advice on how I might learn to do what you've done?

Bloke 2 - Yep - just do it. Don't listen to them over there, just go out and do it. Did I tell you about my 2000/1 shot coming in? Made me for life it did....just go and do it - don't listen to them over there.....

Bloke 1 - Thanks, but, erm, that's great and everything, and it's a fantastic story to hear, but it's not really great on any detail on how someone else might emulate such a brilliant result. I suppose I could ask some others who've had similar great results, but they seem a little thin on the ground in here, don't you think - is there a special club somewhere that you all disappear to?

Bloke 2 - They must all be out spending their jackpots - not like these sheeple here who keep coming in and backing the wrong horses. I didn't back the wrong horse, my 2000/1 shot came in, did I tell you?

Bloke 1 - You did - well done, but I really would like to hear how you'd advise someone else that might be interested in getting a similar result....

Bloke 2 - Listen - there's two simple rules - Rule 1 is not to listen to those idiots over there....

Bloke 1 - Brilliant, that's a great start - but can you please tell me what Rule 2 is?

Bloke 2 - Like I keep telling you - Rule 2 is JUST DO IT.....

Itsallaguess