Migration numbers

[AleisterCrowley]

Dont want to discuss the undelying stuff but;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

Figures show net migration - the difference between how many people came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many left - was 273,000 last year.
EU net migration was 74,000 in the year to the end of June 2018, while non-EU net migration was 248,000.

How do they get 273,000 from an additional 74k EU and 248k non-EU?
I'm clearly missing something obvious (I'm ill , so likely..) Different timescales?

[dionaeamuscipula]

Dont want to discuss the undelying stuff but;
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-46384417

Figures show net migration - the difference between how many people came to the UK for at least 12 months and how many left - was 273,000 last year.
EU net migration was 74,000 in the year to the end of June 2018, while non-EU net migration was 248,000.

How do they get 273,000 from an additional 74k EU and 248k non-EU?
I'm clearly missing something obvious (I'm ill , so likely..) Different timescales?

49,000 UK citizens left. (net)

DM

[AleisterCrowley]

Aha , not included in EU then.....thanks

[Breelander]

I'm clearly missing something obvious...

The obvious step would be to check the original source of the figures and see what they actually said...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... vember2018

[AleisterCrowley]

Time, Mr Breelander, time... speed reading whilst trying to 'work'

[UncleEbenezer]

More fundamental question: how do they count?

They can count arrivals (up to a point), when people go through official paperwork. But how do they count departures? I don't believe anyone counted me out when I went to work in Germany, or later to Italy. Though both those countries presumably counted me in when I went through the red tape for living and working legally there.

[didds]

I just presume they count EVERY departure by land (tunnel), sea and air in both directions? and end up at a net result?

didds

[csearle]

More fundamental question: how do they count?

On Mondays at 1351pm they quickly count all the people in the pedestrian precinct next to the Royal Victoria Shopping Centre in Tunbridge Wells then multiply by a constant established in 1960. Easy. C.

[kiloran]

More fundamental question: how do they count?

On Mondays at 1351pm they quickly count all the people in the pedestrian precinct next to the Royal Victoria Shopping Centre in Tunbridge Wells then multiply by a constant established in 1960. Easy. C.

You are surprisingly close!!
See: https://www.migrationwatchuk.org/briefing-paper/95

--kiloran

[Alaric]

I just presume they count EVERY departure by land (tunnel), sea and air in both directions? and end up at a net result?

I think it's just sampling. What do you imagine the percentage of travellers would be, who would contribute to immigration or emigration statistics? The bulk is those on holiday or business.

Nothing seems to have happened to correct the nonsense on students. They try to count them in (overseas students coming to the UK) and they try to count them out (UK students going overseas). They difference the two to get the net figure. That's just so obviously wrong as courses end and students return to whence they came. That's both "theirs" and "ours".

The UK imports more students than it exports, which makes it a net earner from tuition and school fees. It only increases the population when students stay on after their courses end.

[didds]

I think it's just sampling.

thinking about it for more than half a nano second you have to be right.

how could "they" tell if a Uker was getting ona flight to go on holiday, move abroad permanently, going on business, going to study abroad etc .

cheers

didds

[JamesMuenchen]

More fundamental question: how do they count?

They can count arrivals (up to a point), when people go through official paperwork. But how do they count departures? I don't believe anyone counted me out when I went to work in Germany, or later to Italy. Though both those countries presumably counted me in when I went through the red tape for living and working legally there.

Tax records?

When I left for Germany I filled out a P85

https://www.gov.uk/tax-right-retire-abroad-return-to-uk

[csearle]

When I left for Germany I filled out a P85

When I left for Germany I didn't. Stayed for 17 years. C.

[Lanark]

I'm clearly missing something obvious...

The obvious step would be to check the original source of the figures and see what they actually said...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... vember2018

The first chart shows total migration with a line showing the net worldwide change of +273,000 Total net migration



The second chart is NET migration in detail so:
- There are 248,000 more people arriving from non-EU countries than leaving.
- There are 74,000 more people arriving from EU countries than leaving.
- and (eyeballing it) there are about 50,000 more British citizens leaving than arriving (returners having previously emigrated)

248 +74 -50 = 272,000 Total net migration



Comparing the emigration figures from the 2 charts
351,000 (world emigration from UK) - 128,000 (UK citizens emigrating from UK) = 223,000 Non UK citizens emigrating
That means that UK citizens only represent 18% of the people emigrating from the UK.
and it also looks like around half the people who arrive here realise its not a good as they hoped and so they leave again.

Similarly from the figures (in Table 1), 62% of the UK people who emigrate end up returning back to the UK again.
Something that I think is not shown by these figures is people who arrive here, stay for a few years, become full UK citizens and then emigrate again.

To get all of this in proportion it is hardly a flood:
EU population = 742 million, 219,000 emigrating to the UK = 0.032% of EU population (or 0.33% of UK population)
UK population = 66 million, 145,000 emigrating to the EU = 0.021% of UK population

One unanswered question is how much of this is natural variation and how much is due to Brexit? It is probably still too early to tell.

[JamesMuenchen]

When I left for Germany I filled out a P85

When I left for Germany I didn't. Stayed for 17 years. C.

Probably a mistake. It's a very simple form and you normally get a nice tax rebate to send you on your way. (as PAYE applies your allowances and tax bands based on a full year)

[JamesMuenchen]

To get all of this in proportion it is hardly a flood:
EU population = 742 million, 219,000 emigrating to the UK = 0.032% of EU population (or 0.33% of UK population)
UK population = 66 million, 145,000 emigrating to the EU = 0.021% of UK population

It certainly puts the value of Freedom of Movement for UK citizens in perspective.

Very few will ever benefit from it.

[didds]

When I left for Germany I filled out a P85

When I left for Germany I didn't. Stayed for 17 years. C.

Probably a mistake. It's a very simple form and you normally get a nice tax rebate to send you on your way. (as PAYE applies your allowances and tax bands based on a full year)

That rather assumes when somebody moves abroad they have any tax rebate to come.

I went travelling for 20 months in Feb1987. I didn't fill any forms in that I remember - posisbly I missed out ona tax rebate at the time, though it really would have been minimal because I hardly paid any tax to start with my salary was so low, and it would have been a few weeks of limited refund I suspect.

I returned in Sep 1988, signed on, did some very low paid stuff (not at the same time! LOL), then moved to germany in Jan 1989 - again not filled any forms in.

Went from Germany to travelling (not via the UK) Jun 1991-July 1993, when I returned to the UK and signed on.

I doubt HMG ever knew whether I wa sin or out of the country other than a hint that I wasn't paying any tax or claiming the dole - but I could have been being kept (for example). I certainly never ever got asked what Id been doing between Feb 1987 and Sept 1989 to keep myself alive, and ditto Jan 1989-July 1993 (Would tyhe German authorities have told the UK I was living there maybe? Clearly that was before any thoughts of GDPR and DPA!)

didds

[csearle]

When I left for Germany I filled out a P85

When I left for Germany I didn't. Stayed for 17 years. C.

Probably a mistake. It's a very simple form and you normally get a nice tax rebate to send you on your way. (as PAYE applies your allowances and tax bands based on a full year)

I had been a student for four years leading up to my departure (and I left for a young lady) so tax was the last thing on my mind. C.

[dionaeamuscipula]

To get all of this in proportion it is hardly a flood:
EU population = 742 million, 219,000 emigrating to the UK = 0.032% of EU population (or 0.33% of UK population)
UK population = 66 million, 145,000 emigrating to the EU = 0.021% of UK population

It certainly puts the value of Freedom of Movement for UK citizens in perspective.

Very few will ever benefit from it.

Freedom of movement is about more than just migration. I use my FOM rights about 4 times a year and live full time in the UK

DM

[JamesMuenchen]

Freedom of movement is about more than just migration. I use my FOM rights about 4 times a year and live full time in the UK

But this thread is about migration.

If you want to talk tourism/business travel then there's really no need to you limit yourself to travel within the EU.

Personally, I don't think that that FoM is worth the price of EU membership any more than migratory FoM is. You're talking about a minor convenience.

This year we've been to Russia, the USA and the UK (my wife is non-EU and needs a visa)
We're planning Thailand for the winter holidays.

It's no big deal.