Probabaility of remaining at large...
Posted: December 6th, 2018, 8:48 am
I was just reading this
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wo ... 00b5dce556
(Im not planning a career change incidentally!)
" his chances of eventually getting caught will increase: at 0.8 probability per raid, after three raids or a year and a half his odds of remaining at large are 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.8 = 0.512; after four raids he is more likely than not to be inside. "
That is not very clear but I THINK it means the chances of NOT being caught are 0.8 ie 80%. Because iof it was 0.8 to be caught - on the logic of the above the more bank raids one does the LESS chance of being caught
However its the logic that I'm questioning..
If the probability of NOT being caught are 0.8 per raid, after three raids he is still at large. The probability of being caught has been "beaten" so to speak. So isn't the fourth bank raid just a one hit 0.8 chance of remaining not caught again? ie historical context redundant. The 0.8 chance has been true three times. That's why he can attempt a 4th.
IF of course the 0.8 does mean the chances of being caught... the same applies. He got the 0.2 chance three times. Now he is into a fresh 0.8/0.2 chance .
??
My head hurts!
didds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wo ... 00b5dce556
(Im not planning a career change incidentally!)
" his chances of eventually getting caught will increase: at 0.8 probability per raid, after three raids or a year and a half his odds of remaining at large are 0.8 × 0.8 × 0.8 = 0.512; after four raids he is more likely than not to be inside. "
That is not very clear but I THINK it means the chances of NOT being caught are 0.8 ie 80%. Because iof it was 0.8 to be caught - on the logic of the above the more bank raids one does the LESS chance of being caught
However its the logic that I'm questioning..
If the probability of NOT being caught are 0.8 per raid, after three raids he is still at large. The probability of being caught has been "beaten" so to speak. So isn't the fourth bank raid just a one hit 0.8 chance of remaining not caught again? ie historical context redundant. The 0.8 chance has been true three times. That's why he can attempt a 4th.
IF of course the 0.8 does mean the chances of being caught... the same applies. He got the 0.2 chance three times. Now he is into a fresh 0.8/0.2 chance .
??
My head hurts!
didds