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Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

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DrFfybes
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Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193629

Postby DrFfybes » January 15th, 2019, 10:04 am

I've seen a lot on the news regarding the possible requirement for extra ferries post Brexit, and the shenanigans with the awards to various companies, but I don't understand why we need them.

Surely the number of trucks coming over won't increase, if anything it might drop, and any bottleneck would be with the customs checks. There is plenty of vehicle storage at the ports so I don't really see how extra boats will help.

DAK?

Paul

dionaeamuscipula
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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193636

Postby dionaeamuscipula » January 15th, 2019, 10:21 am

DrFfybes wrote:I've seen a lot on the news regarding the possible requirement for extra ferries post Brexit, and the shenanigans with the awards to various companies, but I don't understand why we need them.

Surely the number of trucks coming over won't increase, if anything it might drop, and any bottleneck would be with the customs checks. There is plenty of vehicle storage at the ports so I don't really see how extra boats will help.

DAK?

Paul


Because Dover - Calais is incredibly important. Views on the amount of disruption a no-deal Brexit would cause vary (and discussion of this is very strictly off topic). Various modelling has been done on the potential effect of disruption, and at the top end, modellers have suggested very significant disruption indeed (while others would say that there is no need for any disruption at all). If there is disruption, it could cause major problems with the cross channel supply chain.

Part of the government's contingency planing has been to add additional capacity through developing additional routes such as Ramsgate - Ostend, and through adding capacity on existing routes such as Portsmouth - Le Havre. The additional capacity thus created is around 10% of existing.

DM

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193679

Postby gryffron » January 15th, 2019, 12:17 pm

Dover is a very small port, in a very constrained space. Very hard to increase capacity of customs checks there if required. Or to queue up trucks awaiting said checks.

So the additional ferry capacity is to increase longer routes to other ports, where there is more space both to store trucks, and to increase the capacity of customs facilities.

Gryff

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193694

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 15th, 2019, 1:01 pm

Couple of observations, and a followup question:

(1) Other shipping routes were reportedly eyeing this up as a business opportunity long before government started posturing. Just to be clear there, I mean I first heard such reports long before government started to 'prepare'.
(2) Crunch-date won't be April Fools. While the UK is internally at civil war, the EU has already announced contingency arrangements to ease the problem: the full burden of Red Tape will come later. In practical terms, giving hauliers longer to prepare, and hopefully reducing the proportion whose unpreparedness causes delays and therefore tailbacks for everyone else.

Now, followup question. Suppose everyone were as disorganised as UK Gov, and there were suddenly 100 miles worth of tailbacks either side of that Dover-Calais crossing. The UK will turn Kent into a lorry park. But (leaving aside questions of it being contrary to their own economic or other interests), is there any kind of obligation on France to do something similar, or could they simply turn round and say No, this is not acceptable, and impose emergency restrictions on the route that would decimate UK supplies not merely of (delayed) fresh food but of any food at all?

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193709

Postby didds » January 15th, 2019, 1:24 pm

Interesting question UE...

I suppose they'd have to be sure that - within some basic caveats etc - that Belgium and to some degree Holland and Spain at least wouldn't just take up that slack in one way, shape or form?

didds

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193722

Postby GrandOiseau » January 15th, 2019, 1:56 pm

UE, maybe we set up some body to co-ordinate all this with the French... you know maybe create some kind of union....?

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193733

Postby Howard » January 15th, 2019, 2:28 pm

gryffron wrote:Dover is a very small port, in a very constrained space. Very hard to increase capacity of customs checks there if required. Or to queue up trucks awaiting said checks.

So the additional ferry capacity is to increase longer routes to other ports, where there is more space both to store trucks, and to increase the capacity of customs facilities.

Gryff


Yes, I stood on the cliffs above Dover a few months ago at around 10pm and it was amazing how many ferries full of vehicles, mainly lorries, came into the port in around half an hour. From memory about five docked, but we could see another two or three approaching from France. Scores of lorries literally drove off the ships and exited the port area in minutes. There is virtually no space below the cliffs for any lorry parking.

Our local news has reported that the approach road to Portsmouth docks (which is also a busy lorry port) is only long enough to accommodate 13 trucks and any more will block the motorway into the city. Hence the plan to close 13 miles of the M3 North of Winchester to act as a lorry park, if needed.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-h ... e-46747684

regards

Howard

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193739

Postby mutantpoodle » January 15th, 2019, 2:41 pm

fao Ebeneezer
France will do that. They are in deep enough doo doo at the moment without getting their farmers (who like a strike every 10 minutes) to join the yellow perils
that would be almost as self destruction as our tory party

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193745

Postby Ashfordian » January 15th, 2019, 2:55 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Now, followup question. Suppose everyone were as disorganised as UK Gov, and there were suddenly 100 miles worth of tailbacks either side of that Dover-Calais crossing. The UK will turn Kent into a lorry park. But (leaving aside questions of it being contrary to their own economic or other interests), is there any kind of obligation on France to do something similar, or could they simply turn round and say No, this is not acceptable, and impose emergency restrictions on the route that would decimate UK supplies not merely of (delayed) fresh food but of any food at all?


Simply and logically, are there enough lorries using Dover-Calais to physically create 100 miles of tailback both sides of the crossing?

Unlike when operation stack happened in 2015, this is a known potential issue than can be planned for in advance. Your example would mean less ferry sailings or empty boats setting sail. As I'm sure has been planned by ferry operators so they do not lose revenue, ferries can be quickly redeployed to other routes.

There is the channel tunnel as well as ferries.

There is also the impact this would have on the Irish economy due to the number of lorries that transit to/from RoI via the UK. Their options would pressure because of the damage to their economy or limited capacity alternative ferry routes. The latter would reduce the pressure on the Dover-Calais route.

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193747

Postby mutantpoodle » January 15th, 2019, 3:00 pm

fao ebeneezer
apologies
obviously I meant France will NOT do that

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193750

Postby gryffron » January 15th, 2019, 3:03 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:is there any kind of obligation on France to do something similar, or could they simply turn round and say No, this is not acceptable, and impose emergency restrictions on the route that would decimate UK supplies not merely of (delayed) fresh food but of any food at all?

Assuming a No Deal brexit, which I think is the circumstances we are considering, there are no obligations on anyone.

But bear in mind this wouldn't be the first time this has happened. French strikes have effectively closed Calais for months on end in the past. Do you remember the UK running out of food? No, neither do I.

There are many other routes from Europe to UK. And whatever cargo is most important (and willing to pay the most) will get priority.

Gryff

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193784

Postby DrFfybes » January 15th, 2019, 5:24 pm

dionaeamuscipula wrote:
Part of the government's contingency planing has been to add additional capacity through developing additional routes such as Ramsgate - Ostend, and through adding capacity on existing routes such as Portsmouth - Le Havre. The additional capacity thus created is around 10% of existing.

DM


D'Oh - obvious really. When they went on about 'extra capacity' I'd assumed they meant capacity for lorries - they actually mean capacity at customs, and as Ports are a finite size then using extra Ports makes sense. I couldn't see how piling more lorries off boats would help.

They could reverse the Kent lorry park - unload the boats and escort convoys non-stop there to go through their own customs check.

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193800

Postby UncleEbenezer » January 15th, 2019, 7:33 pm

didds wrote:Interesting question UE...

I suppose they'd have to be sure that - within some basic caveats etc - that Belgium and to some degree Holland and Spain at least wouldn't just take up that slack in one way, shape or form?

didds

You've lost me. Why should that be of any concern to them (apart from those economic concerns, which I said leaving aside)?

Ashfordian wrote:Simply and logically, are there enough lorries using Dover-Calais to physically create 100 miles of tailback both sides of the crossing?

It's not just lorries themselves. They're adding to and mixing with all other traffic on the route. Including local traffic whose needs overlap with the main routes. The scenario I was wondering about is if the French PTB - local or national - saw their legitimate local traffic overwhelmed past breaking point ("my 15 minute journey has become 4 hours ..."): could they then take any kind of action to limit the international traffic specifically? And yes, it would of course be seen by Blighty as a hostile act, regardless of logic or reason.
gryffon wrote:There are many other routes from Europe to UK. And whatever cargo is most important (and willing to pay the most) will get priority.

Indeed, that's what I've heard about in the context of other routes preparing for more business. I have a lot more faith in the likes of Sainsburys or Lidl[1] - not to mention port owners - to manage their logistics than anyone splashing public money on ferries or stockpiles of medicines. But they're battling with unknown constraints!

[1] Just to name my local supermarkets here. Same applies to other Usual Suspects, of course.

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Re: Why we need post-Brexirt ferries

#193866

Postby csearle » January 15th, 2019, 11:06 pm

Moderator Message:
The OP's question appears to have been answered to his satisfaction so I'm locking the topic. If you are interested in following the more political offspring of this discussion you can find it here. - Chris


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