Towards net zero : Starting point

[BusyBumbleBee]

We all know what the net zero target is BUT I am really struggling to find where we are today on the journey. i.e what are are our net emissions today.

Say, for example they are 40% and we are aiming for zero in 20 years time then we would have to make a reduction of 2 percentage points per year. Does any one know the current start point? With a reference to an authoritative source would be really helpful

[masped]

Report from the Department for Business for 2018:

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... report.pdf

"The provisional estimates suggest that in 2018, total UK greenhouse gas emissions were 43.5 per cent lower than in 1990 and 2.5 per cent lower than 2017.
The provisional emissions figures rely on provisional estimates of carbon dioxide emissions based on UK energy statistics. In 2018, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally estimated to be 364.1 million tonnes (Mt), 2.4 per cent lower than the 2017 figure of 373.2 Mt.
Carbon dioxide (CO2) is the main greenhouse gas, accounting for 81 per cent of total UK greenhouse gas emissions."

[BusyBumbleBee]

Thanks, masped

I have read those figures but they don't answer the question not least because %ages are like statistics (as in "there are lies, damned lies and statistics")

You say

In 2018, UK net emissions of carbon dioxide were provisionally estimated to be 364.1 million tonnes (Mt), 2.4 per cent lower than the 2017 figure of 373.2 Mt.

If I only I could find out the total emissions in Millions of Tons then I could do the maths. Millions of tons is not an easy concept for the great british public to understand but if we can say reduce by 2% a year then it is more meaningful - notwithstanding what I said above about percentages

[masped]

There's a link on page 19 of the report to the data tables underlying the analysis which shows that the "netting off" was 11.3Mt of CO2, so gross CO2 emissions were 375.4Mt. We're only offsetting about 3% of gross emissions at present.

The UK isn't going to be able to rely on planting large areas of new forests to act as carbon sinks, so to get to net zero emissions is going to require large cuts in gross emissions combined with some variant of carbon capture and storage to offset the emissions we're unable to eliminate.

[BusyBumbleBee]

There's a link on page 19 of the report to the data tables underlying the analysis which shows that the "netting off" was 11.3Mt of CO2, so gross CO2 emissions were 375.4Mt. We're only offsetting about 3% of gross emissions at present.

The UK isn't going to be able to rely on planting large areas of new forests to act as carbon sinks, so to get to net zero emissions is going to require large cuts in gross emissions combined with some variant of carbon capture and storage to offset the emissions we're unable to eliminate.

Many thanks, masped.

So this is the simplified slide I needed:

End 1990 Total CO2 (equivalent) emissions = 800 million tonnes
End 2017 Total CO2 (equivalent) emissions = 364 million tonnes equivalent to a 55% reduction in 27 years

Which is equivalent to about 2 percentage points per year for 27 years

So we want to reduce the remaining 45% to zero by 2050 i.e. 30 years which is only 1.5 percentage points per year of the 1990 total – not very ambitious is it? Or are the last miles the hard miles?

Taken from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ummary.pdf

Or is that too much of an oversimplification?

[dspp]

There's a link on page 19 of the report to the data tables underlying the analysis which shows that the "netting off" was 11.3Mt of CO2, so gross CO2 emissions were 375.4Mt. We're only offsetting about 3% of gross emissions at present.

The UK isn't going to be able to rely on planting large areas of new forests to act as carbon sinks, so to get to net zero emissions is going to require large cuts in gross emissions combined with some variant of carbon capture and storage to offset the emissions we're unable to eliminate.

Many thanks, masped.

So this is the simplified slide I needed:

End 1990 Total CO2 (equivalent) emissions = 800 million tonnes
End 2017 Total CO2 (equivalent) emissions = 364 million tonnes equivalent to a 55% reduction in 27 years

Which is equivalent to about 2 percentage points per year for 27 years

So we want to reduce the remaining 45% to zero by 2050 i.e. 30 years which is only 1.5 percentage points per year of the 1990 total – not very ambitious is it? Or are the last miles the hard miles?

Taken from https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... ummary.pdf

Or is that too much of an oversimplification?

If you want to get more complicated go to the CCC pages:

https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-clim ... ogressing/

https://www.theccc.org.uk/tackling-clim ... d-targets/

the second link gives it in MtCO2e terms c/w explanations etc, e.g.

Code: Select all

Budget                           | Carbon budget level | Reduction below 1990 levels
1st carbon budget (2008 to 2012) | 3,018 MtCO2e        |                         25%
2nd carbon budget (2013 to 2017) | 2,782 MtCO2e        |                         31%
3rd carbon budget (2018 to 2022) | 2,544 MtCO2e        | 37% by 2020               
4th carbon budget (2023 to 2027) | 1,950 MtCO2e        | 51% by 2025               
5th carbon budget (2028 to 2032) | 1,725 MtCO2e        | 57% by 2030               


regards, dspp