The Lemon Fool

Crazbe7 wrote:Good point. If HS2 is delayed can Kier claim loss and expense?

No, because like all HS2 civils contractors they are being paid to develop the final target cost through an Early Contractor Involvement (ECI) phase.

They have only been awarded a contract for the ECI phase. No design and build contracts have been awarded for the construction phase, although I'm sure some are banking on contracts being awarded.

Crazbe7

Their costs should be covered by the ECI then? ... no ramp up costs which they can't cover. Although I take your point they haven't actually won the construction phase works, which would certainly blight their recovery plans.

AiY

Carillion... that is the only thing I can think of looking here.

A lot of investors are buying the last two weeks of flat price basing. I see absolutely nothing to suggest even a temporary short covering would rally it for a day trader lol

Looks like 65p is the next stop guys. It's so bad that the excel thing I do, next showing after 65p is -88p if it was possible. I've only seen this in three shares in the last few years. Two are gone and this one the 3rd.

I dont don't know what can change it, it will have to be something gargantuan.

Is there anyone likely to take them over? Asset stripper etc.?

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Is there anyone likely to take them over? Asset stripper etc.?

Kier have put the family silver up for sale already. I tried to work out their indebtedness a little while ago. And I tried to work out a revised EPS too. Almost lost the will to live trying as the information they provided wasn't exhaustive.

That aside I think I came up with an EPS of about 28p after two years of no dividends and selling, exiting various elements of the current business broadly in line with their last RNS.

I think (*assuming I've got my maths about right) that the future EPS will be over a much broader range. And all of that assumes they survive the next two years.

AiY
*Would be happy to discuss this in further detail as it would help me to understand how to do this kind of "thing". I've had a bash - but it's highly likely to have some error(s) within.

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Is there anyone likely to take them over? Asset stripper etc.?

Kier have put the family silver up for sale already.

Seen this one
https://www.ii.co.uk/news/property-cons ... 5083403000
?

I ain't read it - they aren't on my radar, but I have II's tab open on my browser, so I had quick search.

I tried to work out their indebtedness a little while ago. And I tried to work out a revised EPS too. Almost lost the will to live trying as the information they provided wasn't exhaustive.

That aside I think I came up with an EPS of about 28p after two years of no dividends and selling, exiting various elements of the current business broadly in line with their last RNS.

I think (*assuming I've got my maths about right) that the future EPS will be over a much broader range. And all of that assumes they survive the next two years.

AiY
*Would be happy to discuss this in further detail as it would help me to understand how to do this kind of "thing". I've had a bash - but it's highly likely to have some error(s) within.

I could certainly put the last 3 years worth of ARs into my spreadsheet if you like. (Just let me know!).

If it is a share I like the look of I'd usually do 5-6 years. But like I say this ain't on the radar.

I could certainly lob in 3 years worth.

Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:Is there anyone likely to take them over? Asset stripper etc.?

Kier have put the family silver up for sale already.

Seen this one
https://www.ii.co.uk/news/property-cons ... 5083403000
?

I ain't read it - they aren't on my radar, but I have II's tab open on my browser, so I had quick search.

I tried to work out their indebtedness a little while ago. And I tried to work out a revised EPS too. Almost lost the will to live trying as the information they provided wasn't exhaustive.

That aside I think I came up with an EPS of about 28p after two years of no dividends and selling, exiting various elements of the current business broadly in line with their last RNS.

I think (*assuming I've got my maths about right) that the future EPS will be over a much broader range. And all of that assumes they survive the next two years.

AiY
*Would be happy to discuss this in further detail as it would help me to understand how to do this kind of "thing". I've had a bash - but it's highly likely to have some error(s) within.

I could certainly put the last 3 years worth of ARs into my spreadsheet if you like. (Just let me know!).

If it is a share I like the look of I'd usually do 5-6 years. But like I say this ain't on the radar.

I could certainly lob in 3 years worth.

Matt

I opened this thread and was partly talking to myself. I wanted to try and forecast the eps and review that in light of the current price, i.e. a projected p/e. I don't have a spreadsheet that completely works for this yet. [Yet] - Another work in progress I've managed to get one that works for stable growth but not turn-around situations.

I think (assuming my figures are correct) that the current p/e isn't that bad. But that aside I wasn't really convinced after that about the companies ability to survive. However, by following it through and watching for the next two years I hope to learn something.

My "guts" tell me they will survive. I'm not concerned about their debt levels as they should fall dramatically. Equally I don't think the valuations they have put on their assets for sale are over-stated. But I do think there's a strong possibility they will not receive the HS2 construction works contract[s]. If I hear that government are going to place such I may look again.

AiY

AsleepInYorkshire wrote:I opened this thread and was partly talking to myself. I wanted to try and forecast the eps and review that in light of the current price, i.e. a projected p/e. I don't have a spreadsheet that completely works for this yet. [Yet] - Another work in progress I've managed to get one that works for stable growth but not turn-around situations.

Well, whenever I've attempted to forecast stuff, I look at the very latest figures I can find e.g. any quarterly or H1 updates and google for things like

"<company name> good news"
"<company name> bad news"
"<company name> investing in"
etc.

then see what I can extrapolate.

the latest I found was the last 6 months:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/kier-grou ... 00074115T/
https://www.kier.co.uk/media/3676/kier- ... _final.pdf

Matt

I got a bit carried away and tried lobbing in some of AR2018s into a spreadsheet, whilst my brain warmed up for work:



better get on with something now, I suppose.
Matt

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:better get on with something now, I suppose.
Matt

If it prevents you from buying into Kier then it'll probably be time well spent.

monabri wrote:

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:better get on with something now, I suppose.
Matt

If it prevents you from buying into Kier then it'll probably be time well spent.

Don't worry it's definitely not my style!

AsleepInYorkshire is interested, however, I do believe.

Here come the hedge funds - fairly decent positions building up now

Short sellers circle Kier Group as contractor’s turmoil continues
https://www.cityam.com/short-sellers-ci ... continues/
Five hedge funds have raised their bets against Kier Group in the last month to make the troubled contractor the most-shorted stock on the market.

AiY

Council parts company with Kier after road cost row
http://www.constructionenquirer.com/201 ... -cost-row/
Cambridgeshire County Council has parted company with Kier on a planned bypass and bridge project following a row over cost estimates.

AiY

24 July 2019
Kier woes deepen as British Land drops it for London job
https://www.building.co.uk/news/kier-wo ... 97.article

Kier had long been tipped to land the £300m main contract after being appointed to carry out pre-construction work at the Shoreditch site on the City fringe.

Another ouch for Kier

AiY

Can anyone speculate why Kier is on the rise in recent days?

Up over 14% today, up over 20% the day before, over 9% the day before that; up nearly 51% in the last 6 days!

And no news stories to explain why - other than good sentiment for working on Whaley Bridge!?!

What does everyone else know that I don't, and how do they know??

PMTI wrote:Can anyone speculate why Kier is on the rise in recent days?

Up over 14% today, up over 20% the day before, over 9% the day before that; up nearly 51% in the last 6 days!

And no news stories to explain why - other than good sentiment for working on Whaley Bridge!?!

What does everyone else know that I don't, and how do they know??

Dead cat bounce?

AiY

I would guess that it may arise from low volumes in August, but have not checked.