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BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

Analysing companies' finances and value from their financial statements using ratios and formulae
Shaker
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BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343098

Postby Shaker » September 26th, 2020, 10:16 pm

What are people thinking of BT share price at 99p?

Buy, hold or avoid?

tjh290633
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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343105

Postby tjh290633 » September 26th, 2020, 10:47 pm

I'm holding. The old argument was that it had a big pension fund deficit. I think that that no longer applies.

I first bought at privatisation at 130p, and I see that I took some profit in 1999 at 1357p, and again in 2013 at 340p, and yet again in 2015 at 479p. But again I have bought back in at lower prices along the way.

They are too cheap at this price. The value of copper in their wires must be way above this level. Something will happen eventually.

TJH

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343106

Postby 1nvest » September 26th, 2020, 10:50 pm

£10Bn market cap and noise of £15Bn (loose change for many) takeover offers, could see a 50% upside. Almost worth rivals just buying it to asset strip and destroy it. Bung the government another billion or two to also destroy its pension fund liabilities.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343118

Postby Shaker » September 27th, 2020, 12:51 am

P/E Ratio is currently 4.2, which is 4th lowest in the FTSE100 as I understand it. I'm looking to hold for 7-10 years anyway.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343133

Postby monabri » September 27th, 2020, 9:37 am

Half the cost of a bag of chips....so "cheaper than chips". Who will buy...who will be allowed to buy?

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343155

Postby monabri » September 27th, 2020, 10:50 am

The same is true of Centrica..? ? ? (just urging caution!).

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343156

Postby johnhemming » September 27th, 2020, 10:56 am

I am a holder. The pension fund is still I think an issue, but I dont think it is that exposed to equity.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343158

Postby Dod101 » September 27th, 2020, 11:00 am

johnhemming wrote:I am a holder. The pension fund is still I think an issue, but I dont think it is that exposed to equity.


Apart from the prospect of a bid, why on earth would anyone hold BT? No dividend and no prospect of one for this year or next. No growth plan that I can see. The pension fund is the least of the problems.

Dod

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343165

Postby johnhemming » September 27th, 2020, 11:29 am

A forecast PE of 5.4 has to be a good reason.

It does not strike me as a business that is going to disappear. Then again I tend to buy stocks that are out of favour as they appear to be priced at less than the value.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343184

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 27th, 2020, 12:28 pm

monabri wrote:The same is true of Centrica..? ? ? (just urging caution!).

The problem I see with Centrica is that there is nothing of value now within the business. All the value has been stripped out and sold off. Arguably, their majority stake in Spirit Energy may have some value but it's been up for sale for some time now with no takers. BT has value within it. Centrica is the walking dead as far as I can see.

RVF

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343185

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 27th, 2020, 12:30 pm

Dod101 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:I am a holder. The pension fund is still I think an issue, but I dont think it is that exposed to equity.


Apart from the prospect of a bid, why on earth would anyone hold BT? No dividend and no prospect of one for this year or next. No growth plan that I can see. The pension fund is the least of the problems.

Dod

I think it's more the other way round. The pension fund has a very poor performing sponsor. The business is now a pension fund with a pretty small telecoms (in the world scale it's very small) business attached.

RVF

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343186

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 27th, 2020, 12:32 pm

johnhemming wrote:A forecast PE of 5.4 has to be a good reason.

It does not strike me as a business that is going to disappear. Then again I tend to buy stocks that are out of favour as they appear to be priced at less than the value.

The BT network must have value. How much? No idea. Enough value to attract a predator? No idea. Could a creative vulture pick up BT and dismantle it whilst dealing with the unions and the pension fund? I doubt it.

RVF

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343189

Postby Dod101 » September 27th, 2020, 12:47 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
johnhemming wrote:I am a holder. The pension fund is still I think an issue, but I dont think it is that exposed to equity.


Apart from the prospect of a bid, why on earth would anyone hold BT? No dividend and no prospect of one for this year or next. No growth plan that I can see. The pension fund is the least of the problems.

Dod

I think it's more the other way round. The pension fund has a very poor performing sponsor. The business is now a pension fund with a pretty small telecoms (in the world scale it's very small) business attached.

RVF


You may be right. Anyway I cannot see any attraction in it and I have as a customer I cannot say that their service is much good.

Dod

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343202

Postby scrumpyjack » September 27th, 2020, 2:12 pm

Whilst the deficit in the pension fund is down to £1.1 billion, it could easily shoot up

BT said: “Our defined benefit pension schemes, in particular the BTPS, could become more of a financial burden as a result of future low investment returns, changes in inflation expectations, longer life expectancies, a more prudent approach being taken (e.g. if BT’s financial strength is viewed as having worsened) and/or regulatory changes.”

It has £53 billion of liabilities and £52 billion of assets. Big numbers compared to BT's £9.9 bn market cap.

It does seem to have a track record of always being behind the curve

As many have said it is a pension fund with a hobby.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343205

Postby johnhemming » September 27th, 2020, 2:40 pm

scrumpyjack wrote:Whilst the deficit in the pension fund is down to £1.1 billion, it could easily shoot up

BT said: “Our defined benefit pension schemes, in particular the BTPS, could become more of a financial burden as a result of future low investment returns, changes in inflation expectations, longer life expectancies, a more prudent approach being taken (e.g. if BT’s financial strength is viewed as having worsened) and/or regulatory changes.”

It has £53 billion of liabilities and £52 billion of assets. Big numbers compared to BT's £9.9 bn market cap.

It does seem to have a track record of always being behind the curve

As many have said it is a pension fund with a hobby.

All of these are reasons why BT would be unpopular with the market. Whether the discount in the price hence makes it worth buying is, of course, a separate issue.

I don't personally like buying stocks which are popular with the market as their prices tend to be a bit high.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343209

Postby Dod101 » September 27th, 2020, 3:33 pm

johnhemming wrote:
scrumpyjack wrote:Whilst the deficit in the pension fund is down to £1.1 billion, it could easily shoot up

BT said: “Our defined benefit pension schemes, in particular the BTPS, could become more of a financial burden as a result of future low investment returns, changes in inflation expectations, longer life expectancies, a more prudent approach being taken (e.g. if BT’s financial strength is viewed as having worsened) and/or regulatory changes.”

It has £53 billion of liabilities and £52 billion of assets. Big numbers compared to BT's £9.9 bn market cap.

It does seem to have a track record of always being behind the curve

As many have said it is a pension fund with a hobby.

All of these are reasons why BT would be unpopular with the market. Whether the discount in the price hence makes it worth buying is, of course, a separate issue.

I don't personally like buying stocks which are popular with the market as their prices tend to be a bit high.


The corollary of course is that when prices tend to be 'a bit low' it is often for a good reason and I think that is the case with BT.

Dod

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343215

Postby bluedonkey » September 27th, 2020, 4:26 pm

The outlook could be a slowly declining, periodically failing, business. This would justify the current price.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343219

Postby ReallyVeryFoolish » September 27th, 2020, 4:32 pm

bluedonkey wrote:The outlook could be a slowly declining, periodically failing, business. This would justify the current price.

The issue with BT unlike the vast majority of other companies out there, it cannot be allowed to fail due to it's (almost) monopoly stake in the UK's telecommunications infrastructure.

RVF

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343220

Postby scrumpyjack » September 27th, 2020, 4:46 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:
bluedonkey wrote:The outlook could be a slowly declining, periodically failing, business. This would justify the current price.

The issue with BT unlike the vast majority of other companies out there, it cannot be allowed to fail due to it's (almost) monopoly stake in the UK's telecommunications infrastructure.

RVF


But that means shareholders interests are a long way down the priorities and it can be allowed to stagger on as a quasi-nationalised entity paying no dividends.

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Re: BT GROUP PLC (BT.A) @ 99p

#343228

Postby johnhemming » September 27th, 2020, 5:08 pm

Which posts (and I am not quoting any because I think they are all relevant) demonstrates why narrative affects the share values. Whether the narrative's effect on the value under values the stock or over values it is a matter of varying judgment. I personally go for "not over".


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