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Morrisons (MRW)

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idpickering
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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421196

Postby idpickering » June 21st, 2021, 4:45 pm

pje16 wrote:Tesco up 3.2% as well
good day for the foodies !


I hold those two, but not MRW.

Ian.

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421202

Postby pje16 » June 21st, 2021, 4:52 pm

I have all 3 so it's been a goodish day :D

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421215

Postby simoan » June 21st, 2021, 5:23 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:The next British retail business to be loaded up with debt, asset stripped, the new owners taking massive dividends along the way. Then floating the company again when they have milked it to near death. Then it fails due to weight of debt and lack of investment. Such is the familiar story of British retail business and venture capital buyouts.

RVF

It's called capitalism! Lump it or like it, it's the way the world we live in works, and always has done. If you don't like it, then you probably shouldn't invest in the stockmarket! :) If a listed company has an inefficient balance sheet and management that does nothing about it, and the value of the company is not adequately recognised by the market, someone is sure to intervene and take that value for themselves. There was no good reason why MRW was sitting on ~160p per share of freehold property and "the market" thought the whole company only worth 178p. Was the rest of the business really only worth 18p per share?

BTW CD&R are Private Equity not Venture Capital.

All the best, Si

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421240

Postby Bouleversee » June 21st, 2021, 6:31 pm

Yeah, there are so many better alternatives to investing in the stockmarket these days, aren't there? We really shouldn't complain if we stick with it and lose our money, RVF. ;)

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421243

Postby scrumpyjack » June 21st, 2021, 6:44 pm

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:The next British retail business to be loaded up with debt, asset stripped, the new owners taking massive dividends along the way. Then floating the company again when they have milked it to near death. Then it fails due to weight of debt and lack of investment. Such is the familiar story of British retail business and venture capital buyouts.

RVF


The idiots are the foolish fund managers who allow themselves to be sold these overgeared overrated pumped up companies. Another reason to avoid funds.

Whilst private equity can be positive in sorting out badly run companies, much of the return is from financial engineering rather than improving the underlying trading performance, and fund managers often seem to be too stupid to look beyond an EPS forecast times a P/E multiple. They should start from a point of view of being extremely skeptical of anything presented to them that has come through the private equity route, because the chances are that every last drop of value has already been extracted!

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421472

Postby Dod101 » June 22nd, 2021, 10:20 pm

Not sure here if holders are complaining or not but I think they ought to be pleased that someone is coming along who may relieve them of their shares.

They have done nothing very much for a long while.

Dod

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421494

Postby Clitheroekid » June 23rd, 2021, 1:50 am

simoan wrote:
ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:The next British retail business to be loaded up with debt, asset stripped, the new owners taking massive dividends along the way. Then floating the company again when they have milked it to near death. Then it fails due to weight of debt and lack of investment. Such is the familiar story of British retail business and venture capital buyouts.

RVF

It's called capitalism! Lump it or like it, it's the way the world we live in works, and always has done. If you don't like it, then you probably shouldn't invest in the stockmarket!

I don't like it at all, but unfortunately there's no realistic alternative to investing in the stock market.

I find it immensely depressing that so many long-established UK companies that have been part of the weft and warp of our society are being bought up by US private equity funds.

But it's not just private equity funds that are on the prowl. I was shocked to read recently that nearly 60% of the shares in the FTSE companies and over 50% of those in all listed companies are now owned overseas.

It's a similar picture with Central London property, both commercial and residential, and now it's spreading out from London, with many new build houses in expensive areas being bought off plan by overseas `investors', helping, incidentally, to push property prices to even more insane levels than they are now.

At this rate we will end up as a serf nation, working for and renting our homes and offices from people in New York, Dubai and Singapore. And when those companies decide we're no longer EVU's (Economically Viable Units) they'll turf us out of our jobs and homes, and leave us to wander the streets, mendicants in (what used to be) our own country!

(Sorry to have hijacked the thread for a rant! ;) )

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421501

Postby Dod101 » June 23rd, 2021, 7:36 am

That is all very well but CK might like to remember that the UK is a very big investor overseas and particularly in the US. There was an article in a weekend paper showing us that not only is the US our biggest trading partner by far but we are also a very big investor in that country so it works both ways. I think there is though a legitimate complaint about private equity funds who contribute very little in the long run and simply asset strip and gear up Balance Sheets.

All this activity is simply the result of years of poor results and thus lowly valuations. Investors ought to be glad that someone is now taking an interest!

Dod

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421523

Postby UncleEbenezer » June 23rd, 2021, 9:55 am

Clitheroekid wrote:But it's not just private equity funds that are on the prowl. I was shocked to read recently that nearly 60% of the shares in the FTSE companies and over 50% of those in all listed companies are now owned overseas.

Does "overseas" include all those investment vehicles (funds, ITs, PE, etc) registered in tax havens such as the channel islands, but listed on the London exchange and held by the likes of Fools and (other) pension investors?

It's a similar picture with Central London property, both commercial and residential, and now it's spreading out from London, with many new build houses in expensive areas being bought off plan by overseas `investors', helping, incidentally, to push property prices to even more insane levels than they are now.


The London property money-laundering carousel includes many who treat losses on their ownership of property as a business cost. When Yet Another injection of money enables them to come out with a profit, that's icing on the cake.

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421582

Postby Itsallaguess » June 23rd, 2021, 12:17 pm

Dod101 wrote:
Investors ought to be glad that someone is now taking an interest!


Well I'm glad...

With a forecast yield before the recent 32% share-price uplift of about 4%, if we assume that it's unlikely that there'll be a rapid uplift in that underlying dividend (and we'd have to ask ourselves why there would be, if someone is looking to take them over to gain access to some previously un-tapped value.....), then the current yield on the now-higher MRW share price might be around 3%, so with my invested MRW capital now having risen 32% in recent days, I might look to rotate that larger capital amount into a much more diverse income-investment, such as an income-related Investment Trust, which might still be yielding around the 4% mark...

The likely result would be to have a less risky 'single-source' investment for that larger capital amount, and also a round-trip rise in underlying dividend income from the new investment around 32% higher than the original yearly dividend amount from Morrisons...

If that's a poor outcome, then I'd like to know what a good one looks like....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421593

Postby RockRabbit » June 23rd, 2021, 12:34 pm

Dod101 wrote:That is all very well but CK might like to remember that the UK is a very big investor overseas and particularly in the US. There was an article in a weekend paper showing us that not only is the US our biggest trading partner by far but we are also a very big investor in that country so it works both ways.Dod


Except that the US is not 'our biggest trading partner by far', the EU is. Just under half our trade is with the EU and around 15% or so with the US, depending on your definitions and time periods.

Latest EU/ROW stats:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/national ... /april2021

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421596

Postby Dod101 » June 23rd, 2021, 12:45 pm

RockRabbit wrote:
Dod101 wrote:That is all very well but CK might like to remember that the UK is a very big investor overseas and particularly in the US. There was an article in a weekend paper showing us that not only is the US our biggest trading partner by far but we are also a very big investor in that country so it works both ways.Dod


Except that the US is not 'our biggest trading partner by far', the EU is. Just under half our trade is with the EU and around 15% or so with the US, depending on your definitions and time periods.

Latest EU/ROW stats:

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/national ... /april2021


You are looking at this as the EU as a block, but the table I saw was showing individual countries. The trading block of the EU is no more as far as the UK is concerned. We trade a lot with Germany and France but the biggest trading partner was by quite saw margin, the US. The point is that the UK is and always has been a big investor overseas which is the point that I was primarily making in answer to CK's comments.

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421699

Postby Clitheroekid » June 23rd, 2021, 6:59 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
Clitheroekid wrote:But it's not just private equity funds that are on the prowl. I was shocked to read recently that nearly 60% of the shares in the FTSE companies and over 50% of those in all listed companies are now owned overseas.

Does "overseas" include all those investment vehicles (funds, ITs, PE, etc) registered in tax havens such as the channel islands, but listed on the London exchange and held by the likes of Fools and (other) pension investors?

I don't think so, looking at the charts in this article - https://insight.factset.com/institution ... -in-the-uk

Remarkable that the state-owned Norwegian oil fund alone owns 2.2% of the FTSE 100.

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421747

Postby Itsallaguess » June 23rd, 2021, 8:43 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:
Dod101 wrote:
Investors ought to be glad that someone is now taking an interest!


Well I'm glad...

With a forecast yield before the recent 32% share-price uplift of about 4%, if we assume that it's unlikely that there'll be a rapid uplift in that underlying dividend (and we'd have to ask ourselves why there would be, if someone is looking to take them over to gain access to some previously un-tapped value.....), then the current yield on the now-higher MRW share price might be around 3%, so with my invested MRW capital now having risen 32% in recent days, I might look to rotate that larger capital amount into a much more diverse income-investment, such as an income-related Investment Trust, which might still be yielding around the 4% mark...

The likely result would be to have a less risky 'single-source' investment for that larger capital amount, and also a round-trip rise in underlying dividend income from the new investment around 32% higher than the original yearly dividend amount from Morrisons...

If that's a poor outcome, then I'd like to know what a good one looks like....


Just to wrap this particular MRW discussion up from my own point of view - today I sold all my Morrisons shares and merged the capital into an existing holding of JP Morgan European Investment Trust (JETI).

This suits my overall income-portfolio position and forward strategy, because that MRW capital has now moved from a rough yield of around 3%, following the large recent MRW share-price rise, into a new yield of around 4.4%, with the more broadly invested IT also sitting on a 10% discount to underlying NAV, and the move also brings my JETI holding into a more balanced position within my overall income portfolio.

Aims -

1. De-risk invested capital from a single-share investment to a much broader income-related Investment Trust.
2. Plan to increase the yield from that shifted capital in the same de-risking process.

Having recently carried out a similar process with the received RSA funds a few weeks ago, I'm very happy being able to process this type of de-risking and income-uplift using positive market events as a trigger to do so...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421770

Postby Dod101 » June 23rd, 2021, 9:58 pm

IAAG

Any more of these once pretty unpromising investments? Maybe I could buy into the next one.

Dod

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421783

Postby simoan » June 23rd, 2021, 10:43 pm

Itsallaguess wrote:Aims -

1. De-risk invested capital from a single-share investment to a much broader income-related Investment Trust.
2. Plan to increase the yield from that shifted capital in the same de-risking process.

Having recently carried out a similar process with the received RSA funds a few weeks ago, I'm very happy being able to process this type of de-risking and income-uplift using positive market events as a trigger to do so...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

I admit I don't understand how this de-risks anything much unless MRW is the only single company share you own and it is a significant percentage of your investment portfolio? If you hold it along with 20 or 30 other single company shares (maybe as one of those HYP things) and MRW is 1 or 2% of your total investments then I don't really see selling it moving the risk dial at all. IMHO it makes little sense to look at the risk of individual investments which are only a very small part of your overall portfolio standalone, that's just micro-managing. Of course, if MRW was 50% of your portfolio then I can see your point!

If I was looking to de-risk my portfolio I would just do it, it makes little sense to do it only at a time when there is some kind of positive event that forces you to make a decision. In particular, if there was a large negative event it would then be too late to de-risk :)

All the best, Si

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421799

Postby Itsallaguess » June 24th, 2021, 6:49 am

simoan wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
Aims -

1. De-risk invested capital from a single-share investment to a much broader income-related Investment Trust.
2. Plan to increase the yield from that shifted capital in the same de-risking process.

Having recently carried out a similar process with the received RSA funds a few weeks ago, I'm very happy being able to process this type of de-risking and income-uplift using positive market events as a trigger to do so...


I admit I don't understand how this de-risks anything much unless MRW is the only single company share you own and it is a significant percentage of your investment portfolio?

If you hold it along with 20 or 30 other single company shares (maybe as one of those HYP things) and MRW is 1 or 2% of your total investments then I don't really see selling it moving the risk dial at all. IMHO it makes little sense to look at the risk of individual investments which are only a very small part of your overall portfolio standalone, that's just micro-managing. Of course, if MRW was 50% of your portfolio then I can see your point!

If I was looking to de-risk my portfolio I would just do it, it makes little sense to do it only at a time when there is some kind of positive event that forces you to make a decision. In particular, if there was a large negative event it would then be too late to de-risk :)


It's de-risking the volatility of the income from my income-portfolio by gradually moving away from what single-company holdings (ex-HYP) remain in it, to a set of more broadly-invested income-IT's, which provide the following benefits to me over the single-company HYP holdings that I've held in the past -

1. They're each quite broadly invested in their own spheres, with many individual underlying holdings themselves

2. Their spheres reach much wider areas of the market, in terms of sectors and/or geographies, than have been previously covered by my single-company HYP holdings

3. They almost all carry, by default, some level of income-cover to help 'internally cope' with underlying fluctuations in their sub-investment income, enabling them to smooth out dividend payments to holding investors

In this particular case for MRW, with the share price rising 32% earlier in the week, it's presented me with an opportunity to move that nicely-increased capital into an income-IT in a way that sees a larger amount of capital than was previously owned, move into an IT-based yield (with the above benefits...) that's comparable to the previous MRW yield, thus gaining all the above income-volatility benefits at the same time as seeing (with a fair wind..) an uplift in the income that would have continued to be generated from the MRW holding if I were to have continued holding it...

I do take your point that, in theory, a well-diversified portfolio should be de-risked to some extent anyway, but having held HYP-like single-share holdings for long periods in the past, as part of my previous income-strategy, I am acutely aware that this is one of those theories that struggles to face up to reality over the long term....

I've not got the granular data available for my own HYP (single-share) income volatility over the years, but Arb has kindly been tracking his own HYP (single-share) income and comparing it to a number of diverse income-related portfolios that he also owns (OEIC and also income-IT's), and updates a chart that shows his HYP income-volatility in a way that very much chimes with my own experience of it over many years -

Image

Source - https://www.lemonfool.co.uk/viewtopic.php?f=8&t=29000&start=40#p406945

The above dark-blue HYP-income volatility is what I'm wanting to move the remainder of my single-share HYP holdings away from, and the reliable and generally rising pink income-IT line is what I'm gradually moving the capital from those single-share HYP holdings towards, and the recent 32% uplift in the Morrisons share price has presented me with an opportunity to do so in a really quite beneficial way in terms of the up-lift in underlying dividend income that's also been generated (with a fair wind...), in addition to the above listed strategic benefits of doing so....so very much a 'win/win' process as far as I'm concerned, taking all of the above into account...

The above chart shows the single-share HYP-income volatility for the 2020 COVID-induced market issues, but I also experienced a similar 'blue-line-jolt' around the time of the financial crisis of 2007/2008, and it was actually that period that caused me to reflect on the suitability of the single-share HYP approach to my own investment sensibilities, and which triggered the move into a more income-IT based strategy, and having done so I've been very happy with that decision since that time...

I also take your point that questions why, if such HYP-to-IT transitions are seen as such a benefit, why don't I just get rid of all my HYP holdings now, and be done with it, and there's a couple of reasons for that, one of which is to do with some of my HYP holdings being in a non-tax-sheltered account, where CGT considerations need to be taken into account, and which creates a natural drag on those particular longer-term processes, and the other reason is that as I'm investing all my current dividend income and any fresh investment capital that's delivered from my working wages into the income-IT side of my portfolio, the remaining single-share HYP-income and the underlying volatility from it is now such a relatively small part of the overall portfolio income that it means I can take my time and allow opportunities for market-driven events such as the ones presented to MRW this week, and also RSA earlier in the year, to help drive some of those transition processes out, in what are sometimes more beneficial ways than would otherwise have occurred....

So taking the above into account, I'm generally happy with my medium-term transition period, and don't really see any particular need to change my approach. I'm very happy with the strategic direction of travel, and I'm happy with the speed with which I'm getting there, so I don't think there's too much benefit to me personally from changing the above approach, but I do get a lot of benefit from just keeping on the track I'm on, and continuing to put one foot in front of the other at a relatively decent pace....

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421815

Postby simoan » June 24th, 2021, 8:56 am

Itsallaguess wrote:It's de-risking the volatility of the income from my income-portfolio by gradually moving away from what single-company holdings (ex-HYP) remain in it, to a set of more broadly-invested income-IT's, which provide the following benefits to me over the single-company HYP holdings that I've held in the past -

1. They're each quite broadly invested in their own spheres, with many individual underlying holdings themselves

2. Their spheres reach much wider areas of the market, in terms of sectors and/or geographies, than have been previously covered by my single-company HYP holdings

3. They almost all carry, by default, some level of income-cover to help 'internally cope' with underlying fluctuations in their sub-investment income, enabling them to smooth out dividend payments to holding investors

I'm not sure why every thread on TLF ultimately ends up with a discussion of investing for income only and the HYP approach! Its dogma just pervades the whole TLF website which is incredibly frustrating to those that don't follow it. I have no idea what risk of volatility of income is? It sounds like something you'd only normally consider if you had a portfolio of derivatives, not boring plodders that paid out all their free cashflow (and more) as dividends.

Unfortunately, I can't comment on most of your post about HYP and income investing as it's a road I'm not prepared to drive down given my thoughts on that investment approach are so negative. All I will say is that Investing for income only is a deeply flawed strategy, and that's not just my opinion, any number of renowned successful investors will tell you the same. Total Return investing is the only approach that works over the long term. FWIW my views on Equity Income investing are fully aligned with those of Terry Smith.

Apart from anything else, investing based on dividend yield only leads you into holding poor quality companies like MRW. However, a higher yield with a large differential to the risk-free rate by definition indicates higher risk. So, generally, by switching from a low yielding investment to a high yield investment actually increases risk, it doesn't matter if it is a collective investment or not.

All the best, Si

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421823

Postby Itsallaguess » June 24th, 2021, 9:14 am

simoan wrote:
Itsallaguess wrote:
It's de-risking the volatility of the income from my income-portfolio by gradually moving away from what single-company holdings (ex-HYP) remain in it, to a set of more broadly-invested income-IT's, which provide the following benefits to me over the single-company HYP holdings that I've held in the past -

1. They're each quite broadly invested in their own spheres, with many individual underlying holdings themselves

2. Their spheres reach much wider areas of the market, in terms of sectors and/or geographies, than have been previously covered by my single-company HYP holdings

3. They almost all carry, by default, some level of income-cover to help 'internally cope' with underlying fluctuations in their sub-investment income, enabling them to smooth out dividend payments to holding investors


I'm not sure why every thread on TLF ultimately ends up with a discussion of investing for income only and the HYP approach!

Its dogma just pervades the whole TLF website which is incredibly frustrating to those that don't follow it.


I was replying to your post that said you don't understand how my trade out of MRW de-risks anything from an income point of view, and the chart I showed demonstrates less income-volatility from the basket of income-IT's than the income-volatility from the single-share HYP, so I was simply trying to help your understanding using that chart...

As an aside, I do agree with you that 'HYP' in itself tends to pervade the whole of the TLF website, but I would politely suggest that often it's those people who can't seem to differentiate between those who do actually follow the stricter HYP approach, and those others, like me, who are income-investors with much less emphasis on the 'HIGH' dictat of the HYP strategy, and who are much more content to stay away from the much higher-yield end of the market (which you quite rightly, in my view, indicate as being much higher risk...), and who are content to carry out an income-strategy utilising lower-risk, lower-yield investments, that still deliver to our needs....

It's a shame that such a distinction can't be made more often, as it really does seem that *any* income-investor who wants to discuss their approach on these boards seems to instantly get tarnished with the 'HYP' label, and incorrectly condemned as such, often for reasons that are much more HYP-specific, and often don't even apply to those of us that are happy to be operating in areas of the market with much lower yield-based risk...

My final point would be to say that I fully appreciate that there are other approaches that people can take to investing their capital, and each of us must find a way to do so which we're happy with. I'm content that other strategies exist, in the same way that I accept that other exercises exist that might produce 'better results' if only I were to do those instead of the ones I enjoy, but if it's OK, I will continue to put some value onto my own preferences in both of those areas, so long as they continue to deliver to my individual needs...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: Morrisons (MRW)

#421824

Postby simoan » June 24th, 2021, 9:19 am

Itsallaguess wrote:I was replying to your post that said you don't understand how my trade out of MRW de-risks anything from an income point of view

But I wasn't replying to that!!! This is what you originally wrote:

1. De-risk invested capital from a single-share investment to a much broader income-related Investment Trust.

All the best, Si


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