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Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
Year End | Dividend | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Mar-24 | 58.5200 | 5.56% | 5.98% | 4.33% | 3.37% | 5.57%
31-Mar-23 | 55.4400 | 8.77% | 4.51% | 3.84% | 3.10% | 6.03%
31-Mar-22 | 50.9700 | 3.68% | 2.49% | 2.86% | 2.64% | 5.95%
31-Mar-21 | 49.1600 | 1.21% | 2.29% | 2.55% | 3.06% | 6.09%
31-Mar-20 | 48.5700 | 2.60% | 3.14% | 2.53% | 2.35% | 6.44%
31-Mar-19 | 47.3400 | 3.07% | 2.99% | 2.41% | 2.88% | 6.65%
31-Mar-18 | 45.9300 | 3.75% | 2.32% | 2.37% | 3.36% | 6.91%
31-Mar-17 | 44.2700 | 2.15% | 1.75% | 2.42% | 4.43% | 7.38%
31-Mar-16 | 43.3400 | 1.10% | 1.99% | 3.57% | 5.20% |
31-Mar-15 | 42.8700 | 2.00% | 2.96% | 2.18% | 6.11% |
31-Mar-14 | 42.0300 | 2.89% | 4.94% | 3.35% | 7.83% |
31-Mar-13 | 40.8500 | 4.00% | 2.00% | 4.36% | 9.04% |
31-Mar-12 | 39.2800 | 8.00% | 3.29% | 6.48% | 9.37% |
31-Mar-11 | 36.3700 | -5.51% | 3.29% | 6.86% | 9.20% |
31-Mar-10 | 38.4900 | 8.00% | 10.28% | 10.18% | 10.69% |
31-Mar-09 | 35.6400 | 8.00% | 10.94% | 12.50% | 10.55% |
31-Mar-08 | 33.0000 | 14.98% | 11.67% | 13.92% | 10.58% |
31-Mar-07 | 28.7000 | 9.96% | 13.21% | 12.34% | 10.41% |
31-Mar-06 | 26.1000 | 10.13% | 14.91% | 11.60% | |
31-Mar-05 | 23.7000 | 19.82% | 13.90% | 11.20% | |
31-Mar-04 | 19.7800 | 15.00% | 9.46% | 8.64% | |
IanTHughes wrote:Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
No dividend cut here, not if one considers the full year. On the contrary, the dividend has increased year-on-year for many years.Year End | Dividend | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Mar-24 | 58.5200 | 5.56% | 5.98% | 4.33% | 3.37% | 5.57%
31-Mar-23 | 55.4400 | 8.77% | 4.51% | 3.84% | 3.10% | 6.03%
31-Mar-22 | 50.9700 | 3.68% | 2.49% | 2.86% | 2.64% | 5.95%
31-Mar-21 | 49.1600 | 1.21% | 2.29% | 2.55% | 3.06% | 6.09%
31-Mar-20 | 48.5700 | 2.60% | 3.14% | 2.53% | 2.35% | 6.44%
31-Mar-19 | 47.3400 | 3.07% | 2.99% | 2.41% | 2.88% | 6.65%
31-Mar-18 | 45.9300 | 3.75% | 2.32% | 2.37% | 3.36% | 6.91%
31-Mar-17 | 44.2700 | 2.15% | 1.75% | 2.42% | 4.43% | 7.38%
31-Mar-16 | 43.3400 | 1.10% | 1.99% | 3.57% | 5.20% |
31-Mar-15 | 42.8700 | 2.00% | 2.96% | 2.18% | 6.11% |
31-Mar-14 | 42.0300 | 2.89% | 4.94% | 3.35% | 7.83% |
31-Mar-13 | 40.8500 | 4.00% | 2.00% | 4.36% | 9.04% |
31-Mar-12 | 39.2800 | 8.00% | 3.29% | 6.48% | 9.37% |
31-Mar-11 | 36.3700 | -5.51% | 3.29% | 6.86% | 9.20% |
31-Mar-10 | 38.4900 | 8.00% | 10.28% | 10.18% | 10.69% |
31-Mar-09 | 35.6400 | 8.00% | 10.94% | 12.50% | 10.55% |
31-Mar-08 | 33.0000 | 14.98% | 11.67% | 13.92% | 10.58% |
31-Mar-07 | 28.7000 | 9.96% | 13.21% | 12.34% | 10.41% |
31-Mar-06 | 26.1000 | 10.13% | 14.91% | 11.60% | |
31-Mar-05 | 23.7000 | 19.82% | 13.90% | 11.20% | |
31-Mar-04 | 19.7800 | 15.00% | 9.46% | 8.64% | |
Only one glitch in 20+ years, which was more than put right the very next year.
Enjoy!
Ian
88V8 wrote:Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
Yes, same divi spread over more shares.
Deep discount. No wonder it's 'fully underwritten'.
Not sure whether I will take it up given the oncoming change of govt and the inclination of govts to interfere with utilities.
V8
EthicsGradient wrote:88V8 wrote:Yes, same divi spread over more shares.
Deep discount. No wonder it's 'fully underwritten'.
Not sure whether I will take it up given the oncoming change of govt and the inclination of govts to interfere with utilities.
V8
It's not spread over more shares, though that may not be immediately clear. Timetable:
Admission and commencement of dealings in New Shares, nil paid, on the London Stock Exchange: 8.00 a.m. on 24 May 2024
Existing Shares marked "ex-rights" by the London Stock Exchange: 8.00 a.m. on 24 May 2024
( dividend "will be paid on 19 July 2024 to shareholders who are on the register of members at 7 June 2024" )
Latest time and date for acceptance, payment in full and registration of renunciation of Provisional Allotment Letters: 11:00 a.m. on 10 June 2024
"The New Shares, when issued and fully paid, will rank pari passu in all respects with the Existing Shares, save for the right to receive the recommended FY24 Final Dividend of 39.12 pence per Share which shall only be paid in respect of the Existing Shares."
Quoting a quote form the HYP board:
We will continue our progressive dividend policy, maintaining the total level of dividend following the Rights Issue. Our aim is to grow Dividend Per Share ("DPS") in line with UK CPIH inflation in keeping with the current dividend policy. We will aim to increase the FY25 DPS by UK CPIH following the rebase of the FY24 DPS of 58.52 pence, after taking account of the new shares issued following the Rights Issue[1]
Estimated rebase of 15%, from approximately 53 pence being the FY24 DPS adjusted to take account of the bonus element of the Rights Issue as calculated using the closing middle-market price on 22 May 2024 (being the last business day before the announcement of the terms of the Rights Issue) of 1,127.5 pence per Share, adjusted for the recommended final dividend for FY24 of 39.12 pence per Share.
IanTHughes wrote:Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
No dividend cut here, not if one considers the full year. On the contrary, the dividend has increased year-on-year for many years.Year End | Dividend | 1 Year | 3 Years | 5 Years | 10 Years | 20 Years
31-Mar-24 | 58.5200 | 5.56% | 5.98% | 4.33% | 3.37% | 5.57%
31-Mar-23 | 55.4400 | 8.77% | 4.51% | 3.84% | 3.10% | 6.03%
31-Mar-22 | 50.9700 | 3.68% | 2.49% | 2.86% | 2.64% | 5.95%
31-Mar-21 | 49.1600 | 1.21% | 2.29% | 2.55% | 3.06% | 6.09%
31-Mar-20 | 48.5700 | 2.60% | 3.14% | 2.53% | 2.35% | 6.44%
31-Mar-19 | 47.3400 | 3.07% | 2.99% | 2.41% | 2.88% | 6.65%
31-Mar-18 | 45.9300 | 3.75% | 2.32% | 2.37% | 3.36% | 6.91%
31-Mar-17 | 44.2700 | 2.15% | 1.75% | 2.42% | 4.43% | 7.38%
31-Mar-16 | 43.3400 | 1.10% | 1.99% | 3.57% | 5.20% |
31-Mar-15 | 42.8700 | 2.00% | 2.96% | 2.18% | 6.11% |
31-Mar-14 | 42.0300 | 2.89% | 4.94% | 3.35% | 7.83% |
31-Mar-13 | 40.8500 | 4.00% | 2.00% | 4.36% | 9.04% |
31-Mar-12 | 39.2800 | 8.00% | 3.29% | 6.48% | 9.37% |
31-Mar-11 | 36.3700 | -5.51% | 3.29% | 6.86% | 9.20% |
31-Mar-10 | 38.4900 | 8.00% | 10.28% | 10.18% | 10.69% |
31-Mar-09 | 35.6400 | 8.00% | 10.94% | 12.50% | 10.55% |
31-Mar-08 | 33.0000 | 14.98% | 11.67% | 13.92% | 10.58% |
31-Mar-07 | 28.7000 | 9.96% | 13.21% | 12.34% | 10.41% |
31-Mar-06 | 26.1000 | 10.13% | 14.91% | 11.60% | |
31-Mar-05 | 23.7000 | 19.82% | 13.90% | 11.20% | |
31-Mar-04 | 19.7800 | 15.00% | 9.46% | 8.64% | |
Only one glitch in 20+ years, which was more than put right the very next year.
Enjoy!
Ian
daveh wrote:IanTHughes wrote:No dividend cut here, not if one considers the full year. On the contrary, the dividend has increased year-on-year for many years.
Only one glitch in 20+ years, which was more than put right the very next year.
Yes but that is history. They have announced a deeply discounted rights issue and are saying they will maintain the dividend at its present level in total cash terms, so that will amount to a future rebasing of the dividend (by about 15% if I recall correctly) when that dividend is spread over the increased number of shares.
88V8 wrote:Gerry557 wrote:It looks like a dividend cut, sorry rebase too. Will have to check the details later.
Yes, same divi spread over more shares.
Deep discount. No wonder it's 'fully underwritten'.
Not sure whether I will take it up given the oncoming change of govt and the inclination of govts to interfere with utilities.
V8
Damian76 wrote:Hi,
Feeling a bit out of depth here…
As an ex-employee, I have far too many shares in NG (not being diversified is one for another day).
I’m trying to work out how this is likely to play out. Assumption is to offset the dilution from the extra shares, the preferred approach is to buy the nil-paid rights.
The problem is a combination of not having the cash or certainly being unable to access some quick enough to participate.
I’m trying to work out what the likely hit is going to be in real terms, recognising prices will be affected by other current factors. Is a simple rule of thumb that the share price will go down c. 22% reflecting the dilution. Buying the rights at a discount should then offset the paper loss? Or is this too simplistiic?
If the rights are not taken, then the options get sold, this may (or may not) result in a small return if the rights are sold in excess of the £6.45 discount price, which may offset some of the impact from the dilution?
As I don;t have the cash but now have rights regardless, I’m trying to understand whether there is any value in selling some of the existing shares if still above the £6.45 and using this cash to purchase the discounted shares. The FY24 final dividend on the sold shares will have to be sacrificed but need to work this through as to whether there is any compromise benefit doing this.
Alternatively I do nothing and see how it all plays out on impact and take this as a lesson to diversify!
Can anyone put me straight on tall things Right Issue?
Many thanks.
Damian76 wrote:Hi,
Feeling a bit out of depth here…
As an ex-employee, I have far too many shares in NG (not being diversified is one for another day).
I’m trying to work out how this is likely to play out. Assumption is to offset the dilution from the extra shares, the preferred approach is to buy the nil-paid rights.
The problem is a combination of not having the cash or certainly being unable to access some quick enough to participate.
I’m trying to work out what the likely hit is going to be in real terms, recognising prices will be affected by other current factors. Is a simple rule of thumb that the share price will go down c. 22% reflecting the dilution. Buying the rights at a discount should then offset the paper loss? Or is this too simplistiic?
If the rights are not taken, then the options get sold, this may (or may not) result in a small return if the rights are sold in excess of the £6.45 discount price, which may offset some of the impact from the dilution?
As I don;t have the cash but now have rights regardless, I’m trying to understand whether there is any value in selling some of the existing shares if still above the £6.45 and using this cash to purchase the discounted shares. The FY24 final dividend on the sold shares will have to be sacrificed but need to work this through as to whether there is any compromise benefit doing this.
Alternatively I do nothing and see how it all plays out on impact and take this as a lesson to diversify!
Can anyone put me straight on tall things Right Issue?
Many thanks.
EthicsGradient wrote:The more I think about this, the less I can understand. How can National Grid set the Record Date for entitlements under the Rights Issue as the close of business on 20 May 2024, and not announce that until the start of the 23rd? Doesn't that mean that anyone who bought shares on the 21st or 22nd of May has paid a false, higher price for shares they had no way of knowing were about to be diluted?
simoan wrote:EthicsGradient wrote:The more I think about this, the less I can understand. How can National Grid set the Record Date for entitlements under the Rights Issue as the close of business on 20 May 2024, and not announce that until the start of the 23rd? Doesn't that mean that anyone who bought shares on the 21st or 22nd of May has paid a false, higher price for shares they had no way of knowing were about to be diluted?
I agree. It looks very much like there was effectively a false market for a couple of days but you can be sure this is not illegal as the lawyers will have been all over it. No wonder many investors are deserting the London market.
Subject to the restrictions set out below, if you sell or have sold or have otherwise transferred all of your Shares (other
than ex-rights) held in certificated form before 8.00 a.m. (London time) on 24 May 2024 (the “Ex-Rights Date”) please
send this document, together with any Provisional Allotment Letter, if and when received, at once to the purchaser or
transferee or to the bank, stockbroker or other agent through whom the sale or transfer was effected for delivery to the
purchaser or transferee except that such documents should not be sent to any jurisdiction where to do so might
constitute a violation of local securities laws or regulations, including but not limited to the United States or any
Excluded Territories. If you sell or have sold or have otherwise transferred all or some of your Existing Shares (other
than ex-rights) held in uncertificated form before the Ex-Rights Date, a claim transaction will automatically be generated
by Euroclear which, on settlement, will transfer the appropriate number of Nil Paid Rights to the purchaser or
transferee. If you sell or have sold or otherwise transferred only part of your holding of Existing Shares (other than exrights) held in certificated form before the Ex-Rights Date, you should refer to the instruction regarding split applications
in Part III (Terms and Conditions of the Rights Issue) of this document and in the Provisional Allotment Letter
EthicsGradient wrote:The more I think about this, the less I can understand. How can National Grid set the Record Date for entitlements under the Rights Issue as the close of business on 20 May 2024, and not announce that until the start of the 23rd? Doesn't that mean that anyone who bought shares on the 21st or 22nd of May has paid a false, higher price for shares they had no way of knowing were about to be diluted?
EthicsGradient wrote:Well, I was wrong, and there have now been two consecutive big early morning price drops - now down to about 900p per share. Since they had already gone ex-rights after 20th May, I thought that had been finished. Or maybe today's is just market reaction to the overall situation now they've had time to think about it. Can anyone say why there would be a technical reason for two drops of about 10% on consecutive days?
I have found one commentator blaming today's fall on the Ofgem cut of the price cap. Is National Grid really that vulnerable to the cap? If so, I've misunderstood the business model, frankly.
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