The Lemon Fool

They have extended their debt facility and reduced net debt forecast, hence the bounce.

Up 13% today, and up by a whopping 35% or so in just over a week.

Even though PFC still has the dubious distinction of being the most shorted share the short interest has dropped quite significantly, from 9.3% a couple of weeks ago to 7.3% today. On a rise like this the shorters must be getting concerned, and I would suspect that part of the rise is due to them covering themselves.

But even allowing for the SFO issues I still think PFC look very cheap. They seem to be well thought of within the industry, and as bribery and corruption are de rigueur in many of their main markets the loss of contracts is only because customers and potential customers can't be seen to be condoning such conduct, even though they are happily indulging in it themselves!

I think it's quite likely that once the SFO case is finally put to bed and the PR risk diminishes those customers will quietly resume trading with PFC, at which point they will be due a significant re-rating.

I do hope you are right. That's what I thought ages ago before I topped up, increasing my loss.

Not always, it would seem, RVF. S.p. down 2.29%. Me neither!

Bouleversee wrote:Not always, it would seem, RVF. S.p. down 2.29%. Me neither!

There was always going to be some profit taking from traders after such a large rise. In any case, it's only down 1% now.

Full year results:
https://www.investegate.co.uk/petrofac- ... 0008EXAVQ/

PETROFAC LIMITED
RESULTS FOR THE YEAR ENDED 31 DECEMBER 2020

Protected margins and conserved cash in challenging market conditions
Achieved cost savings of US$140 million, ahead of target
Business performance net profit of US$48 million (1)(2)
Reported net loss of US$180 million post impairments and separately disclosed items (2)
New order intake of US$1.6 billion; 22% of awards in new energies (3)
Net debt of US$116 million and liquidity of US$1.1 billion (8)

and

DIVIDEND

In April 2020, the Board suspended the payment of the final dividend in response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the fall in oil prices. The Board recognises the importance of dividends to shareholders, but in light of current market conditions has decided that dividend payments will remain suspended and therefore no dividend will be paid in respect of 2020 (2019: 12.7 US cents per share).

Down 5% today.

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:

Fraud probe causing energy services firm Petrofac 'real harm'.

Say the BBC. RVF says "no sh1t Sherlock......."

https://www-bbc-co-uk.cdn.ampproject.or ... 20%251%24s

Perhaps it's time they gave David Cameron a call. I'm sure a couple of texts from DC to the SFO could get it all sorted out!

Change of CFO

https://www.investegate.co.uk/petrofac- ... 0016ELSSL/

Petrofac Limited announces that Alastair Cochran, Chief Financial Officer, has advised the Board of his intention to leave and take up a new role outside the Group on 1st September 2021.

Afonso Reis e Sousa, currently Group Treasurer & Head of Tax, will succeed Alastair and will be formally appointed as Chief Financial Officer and Executive Director on the same date following an orderly transition period over the coming months. Afonso, who has been with Petrofac for eight years, spent the early part of his career in investment banking, focusing on the energy and infrastructure sectors. He has extensive experience at Petrofac in a variety of senior finance roles and has most recently led the Company's successful refinancing.

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:A highly politicised piece from The Guardian yesterday flagging up the Asfaris as "tory party donors" and saying ex-employee Lufkin is in court today having previously pleaded guilty as charged by SFO. The share price is looking pretty sick this morning. How many more years can SFO keep PFC under investigation for? Surely if there was any smoking guns to be uncovered they would have found them by now? Highly damaging commercially to a decent enough company who got caught what everyone is doing.

Nothing new in the article but here it is -

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... -countries

RVF

What annoys me is that everytime an event from 2017 is mentioned, the sp tumbles. It's like the market has forgotten. Time for PFC to be snapped up by a foreigner on le cheap!

Wood Group are not exactly flourishing neither! The sector is in a depression.

Interesting to look at current shorting on PFC ( and compare to WG ). I would have thought the sharks would have been circling in more numbers.

https://shorttracker.co.uk/companies/?sort=2&d=desc

A slightly more upbeat view - http://links.info.ii.co.uk/els/v2/dmg6t ... RXVoTjd2S0

Oh dear, this may not help
https://www.desmog.com/2021/08/24/oil-firm-under-investigation-for-corruption-is-contractor-on-cambo-north-sea-project/

Spiderbill

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I am starting to think the unthinkable here. PFC could be beyond help. Certainly, there simply isn't enough work to go round and it seems nobody outside the company is going to lose any sleep if the firm folds. Locked out of their main markets in the Middle East, how long can they survive? Corporate starvation beckons.

It's a worry isn't it. Mind you given that I'm 88% down on them and my holding is now worth less than £700 it's maybe no longer a big worry!

What is somewhat astonishing - particularly given the levels of corruption and cronyism we're seeing at the moment - is that with such friends and donations that the SFO investigation hasn't been leaned on to finish up and take the pressure off the company. However as you say it may be too late as the outlook for the industry has shifted under them while the probe has been going on.

Spiderbill

ReallyVeryFoolish wrote:I liked PFC as a company. There's some people out there who clearly have the opposite view. It's looking like death of a thousand cuts. The only thing the company is guilty of is getting caught doing something that all its competitors do every day. And the Asian contracting companies who have now eaten PFC's lunch will still be doing so today. Really quite sad.

Edited to add - No time like the present to act. Just placed a limit sell order at 105p. Hopefully that will trigger in the next couple of weeks. Big loss but better than a looming total loss.

RVF

Yes, everything I read about them around the time I was buying in seemed to suggest a well-run company. Makes you wonder if someone somewhere has it in for them.

Can't blame you for selling. On balance, with little more left to lose, I'll take a chance and hang on. Someone may decide to make an offer while they are cheap if they think they can wipe the slate clean.

Spiderbill

https://www.energyvoice.com/oilandgas/a ... in-zallaf/

Bit of good news...for a change.

"Petrofac has signed an engineering, procurement, construction and commissioning contract worth more than $100 million in Libya."

We could certainly do with some. Am losing a bomb on this one.

Finally some resolution on the SFO investigation.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/petrofac-limited-statement-resolution-sfo-131848996.html

Now we await the level of penalty.
Let's hope they will now be allowed to tender in the Middle East markets that they've been suspended from.

Share price up 17% as I write.

Spiderbill

What's the betting on the amount of fine?

Good timing on the part of Schroder Investment Management taking a 16.59% stake last month (25th Aug).

https://www.investegate.co.uk/article.a ... 25735EGFFA