GlaxoSmithKline PLC (GSK)

[Dod101]

The apportionment between the two shares is for the market to do its stuff today. This evening GSK will decide on the share consolidation to try to bring GSK shares back to the price they were trading at before the demerger.

Dod

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

Anyway, just to confuse things further they show in my HL account when using a web browser but not when using the app!
All the best, Si

The weekend press was talking about Haleon being worth 'up to £35 billion' but so far the valuation by the market is a long way from that figure never mind the £50 billion that Unilever was supposedly prepared to pay. That would suggest that at the current price it ought to be a screaming buy but we have no accounts that I know about to make any assessment. I will just keep both GSK and Haleon for the time being anyway. I increased my holding in GSK a few weeks back so as to leave the new GSK and Haleon as decent sized holdings to give myself the option of hanging on to both with meaningful value in each share. I guess it will take time for things to settle down (or as you say, for things to come out in the wash.)

Dod

[monabri]

Looks like the "rinse-hold" is on at the moment.. I wonder why there is such a big discrepency between the current (c£16bn) market cap for Haleon and the valuation figures previously bandied around?

I'm glad that the Unilever offer was rejected. I could see some possible market speculation that Unilever might come back for a 4th (?) bite at the HLN cherry or certainly start to accumulate shares. This might pique the interest of others (eg Reckitt, Johnson& Johnson).

[Dod101]

Looks like the "rinse-hold" is on at the moment.. I wonder why there is such a big discrepency between the current (c£16bn) market cap for Haleon and the valuation figures previously bandied around?

I'm glad that the Unilever offer was rejected. I could see some possible market speculation that Unilever might come back for a 4th (?) bite at the HLN cherry or certainly start to accumulate shares. This might pique the interest of others (eg Reckitt, Johnson& Johnson).

One comment I read was that funds in the US are keener to buy than the UK ones so I guess there is plenty of time for things to even up a bit as time goes on. The other point might be the big overhang from shares currently still retained by Pfizer and Glaxo who both say they want to sell in due course. Apparently there is a 'lock in' until November but it is an on going threat to the share price. Early days, I think, to judge.

Dod

[nmdhqbc]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

[nmdhqbc]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

There we go...
https://www.investegate.co.uk/haleon-pl ... 55168460S/

so about 9.2 billion shares

[Dod101]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

Yes but simoan and I for that matter have taken into account the entire number of issued shares in Haleon, not just the 'public' float. It is on a one for one basis, so that Haleon has in issue the same number of shares as GSK. We have not based the market cap of Haleon on the reduced share price for GSK. None of it seems very clear but will sort itself out over the next couple of weeks or so I expect.

Dod

[scrumpyjack]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

Yes but simoan and I for that matter have taken into account the entire number of issued shares in Haleon, not just the 'public' float. It is on a one for one basis, so that Haleon has in issue the same number of shares as GSK. We have not based the market cap of Haleon on the reduced share price for GSK. None of it seems very clear but will sort itself out over the next couple of weeks or so I expect.

Dod

Reuters say the market value of Haleon is about 20% lower than the Unilever potential bid of £50 bn, when you take account of the debt left in Haleon.
But I don't think Unilever had any chance of being allowed to complete such a bid anyway, so it is all notional. (I have no shares in GSK having sold out a few years ago in view of their pedestrian performance).

[simoan]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

Yes but simoan and I for that matter have taken into account the entire number of issued shares in Haleon, not just the 'public' float. It is on a one for one basis, so that Haleon has in issue the same number of shares as GSK. We have not based the market cap of Haleon on the reduced share price for GSK. None of it seems very clear but will sort itself out over the next couple of weeks or so I expect.

Dod

The Total Voting Rights RNS must be correct. The Pfizer and GSK holdings are ~4.2 bln and when you add them to 5 bln already floated you get 9.24 bln. Multiply that figure by 321p and you get a market cap of £30bn which is more like it. It'll eventually be admitted to the FTSE 100.

[nmdhqbc]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

Yes but simoan and I for that matter have taken into account the entire number of issued shares in Haleon, not just the 'public' float. It is on a one for one basis, so that Haleon has in issue the same number of shares as GSK. We have not based the market cap of Haleon on the reduced share price for GSK. None of it seems very clear but will sort itself out over the next couple of weeks or so I expect.

Dod

i don't recall seeing your working out but simoan's above uses that 5 billion number which is the number of GSK shares (before tonight's consolidation) which is now the publicly floated number of Haleon shares. that misses out the shares owned by GSK and Pfizer.

[Dod101]

Currently the market is saying it'll take 4 new shares for every 5 old shares since GSK price is down ~20%.

I have no idea what's going on if I'm honest! but it doesn't really matter as it'll all come out in the wash. My HL account shows the HLN cost price as £2.69 and the current share price is 316p. My understanding is that everyone gets 1 HLN share for every 1 GSK share which would mean HLN has a share count of 5.08 billion. But if you multiply that by 316p you get nowhere near the supposed £40-50 bn market cap?

GSK are keeping some of the shares in Haleon for now and Pfizer own a big chunk of it too. so the drop in GSK value is not the full value of Haleon i don't think.

Yes but simoan and I for that matter have taken into account the entire number of issued shares in Haleon, not just the 'public' float. It is on a one for one basis, so that Haleon has in issue the same number of shares as GSK. We have not based the market cap of Haleon on the reduced share price for GSK. None of it seems very clear but will sort itself out over the next couple of weeks or so I expect.

Dod

i don't recall seeing your working out but simoan's above uses that 5 billion number which is the number of GSK shares (before tonight's consolidation) which is now the publicly floated number of Haleon shares. that misses out the shares owned by GSK and Pfizer.

We were both using the number of shares in issue from GSK because it is a one for one, but that seems to have been overtaken by the RNS issued by Haleon which shows 9.2 billion. It is not at all clear but as simoan has posted it makes the market cap of Haleon something like £30 billion which is maybe lower than some estimates but is in the ballpark at least. That of course includes not just those now in the independent shareholders' hands but also those still held by Pfizer and GSK

Dod

[nmdhqbc]

We were both using the number of shares in issue from GSK because it is a one for one, but that seems to have been overtaken by the RNS issued by Haleon which shows 9.2 billion. It is not at all clear but as simoan has posted it makes the market cap of Haleon something like £30 billion which is maybe lower than some estimates but is in the ballpark at least. That of course includes not just those now in the independent shareholders' hands but also those still held by Pfizer and GSK

Dod

yes, one for one and i've explained why that was never the right number to use - GSK and Pfizer keep shares too. it wasn't overtaken by the RNS, it was never the correct number to use.

[simoan]

yes, one for one and i've explained why that was never the right number to use - GSK and Pfizer keep shares too. it wasn't overtaken by the RNS, it was never the correct number to use.

That's quite a scary 46% equity overhang for the market to absorb post November and we know Pfizer intend to sell at the earliest opportunity. Certainly doesn't make you feel like buying any more Haleon in the short term does it? Very strange day for me, not only this demerger but wondered what had happened to my portfolio value and then noticed Alphabet have also done a 20:1 split!

[idpickering]

For your information hereabouts, I've started a new board here on which news items regarding Haleon can be discussed.

Here; viewtopic.php?p=515368#p515368

Ian.

[nmdhqbc]

That's quite a scary 46% equity overhang for the market to absorb post November and we know Pfizer intend to sell at the earliest opportunity. Certainly doesn't make you feel like buying any more Haleon in the short term does it? Very strange day for me, not only this demerger but wondered what had happened to my portfolio value and then noticed Alphabet have also done a 20:1 split!

november might be the moment to pounce then. but then the market know what's going on so maybe it's all priced in. i've given up having expectations. i'll just let it happen and see how i feel in maybe a year when things settle down and we know more about the dividend. i think it could be low and i might therefore sell at that point.

[monabri]

Question to the GSK board ..." so you could have sold £31bn HLN for £50bn ....err, why didn't you?".

[MrFoolish]

Question to the GSK board ..." so you could have sold £31bn HLN for £50bn ....err, why didn't you?".

I guess they can't time the market any better than the rest of us.

[Dod101]

We were both using the number of shares in issue from GSK because it is a one for one, but that seems to have been overtaken by the RNS issued by Haleon which shows 9.2 billion. It is not at all clear but as simoan has posted it makes the market cap of Haleon something like £30 billion which is maybe lower than some estimates but is in the ballpark at least. That of course includes not just those now in the independent shareholders' hands but also those still held by Pfizer and GSK

Dod

yes, one for one and i've explained why that was never the right number to use - GSK and Pfizer keep shares too. it wasn't overtaken by the RNS, it was never the correct number to use.

Does it matter? Frankly I am hot and bothered with the weather and have more important things to concern me.

Dod

[nmdhqbc]

Does it matter? Frankly I am hot and bothered with the weather and have more important things to concern me.

well you seemed to be confused about what i said originally since you talked about one for one as if it was some sort of explanation. but is was not. then you talked about the RNS as if it put a whole new spin on the topic which it did not. just the finer detail of the numbers. i was just trying to correct a potential misunderstanding. it seemed to matter to you so i responded. if it did not matter to you then i would have had nothing to respond to.

[Breelander]

Consolidation ratio has now been set:

As at the record time of 8.00 p.m. (UK) on Monday 18 July 2022, the GSK Share Consolidation applied a ratio of:

4 new ordinary shares for every 5 existing ordinary shares.

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-r ... olidation/

[NearlyThere]

Consolidation ratio has now been set:

As at the record time of 8.00 p.m. (UK) on Monday 18 July 2022, the GSK Share Consolidation applied a ratio of:

4 new ordinary shares for every 5 existing ordinary shares.

https://www.gsk.com/en-gb/media/press-r ... olidation/

How do I calculate book cost for HLN? My exising GSK book cost / 5 ?