The Lemon Fool

Lloyds is a domestic stock which will continue suffering from brexit uncertainty until there is more certainty. Whether it is overpriced for no deal or not I don't know. I do hold Lloyds.

They've now blown about £20 billion on the PPI fiasco and have had to provide another £650m this time. At least this massive destruction of shareholders funds is approaching the end, but has anyone been sacked over it?

I too hold LLOY but like all bank shares it is forever a triumph of vain hope over reality - always jam tomorrow but tomorrow never comes!

No doubt once PPI and other 'legacy' issues have been put to bed, internet disruptors will then grab the profitable business.

Smarty pants H-O broke ranks from the other banks when the BBA were attempting to agree terms, including a much earlier cut-off. Moreover, he has since asserted that he didn't know how much the total costs would be - and that looks still to be the case. Elementary banking not to enter into open ended obligations by way of term and amount. But the interesting financial for me is NAPS which has fallen steadily under H-O and is now down to 53p - and the bank has been buying back shares in recent weeks. Beats me why is he still there.

idpickering wrote:Half yearly here; https://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ba ... 00182837H/

...and more in Part 2 of 2 here: https://www.investegate.co.uk/lloyds-ba ... 00182838H/

roland500 wrote:Smarty pants H-O broke ranks from the other banks when the BBA were attempting to agree terms, including a much earlier cut-off. Moreover, he has since asserted that he didn't know how much the total costs would be - and that looks still to be the case. Elementary banking not to enter into open ended obligations by way of term and amount. But the interesting financial for me is NAPS which has fallen steadily under H-O and is now down to 53p - and the bank has been buying back shares in recent weeks. Beats me why is he still there.

Beats me why he earns such a phenomenal amount when the share price is considerably lower than it was 10 years ago. I have 2 holdings and wish I didn't.

Articles from 2011 ( following Roland500's comment)

In 2011 the Guardian reported

"The dramatic capitulation by the new Lloyds chief executive António Horta-Osório caught his rivals – who have been fighting the Financial Services Authority in the courts – on the hop and left the bailed-out bank reporting a pre-tax loss of £3.4bn for the first quarter of 2011."

"Horta-Osório, who on his arrival at Lloyds demanded a thorough assessment of the PPI bill, conceded that the £3.2bn provision "feels a significantly bigger number than I would have expected"."

(Thorough Assessment....how does a thorough assessment of £3.2bn become £20bn?)


https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... tion-costs

https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... l-unfolded

roland500 wrote: But the interesting financial for me is NAPS which has fallen steadily under H-O and is now down to 53p - and the bank has been buying back shares in recent weeks.

I would be interested in any source for this. AIUI tangible assets is at 53p, but assets otherwise are in the upper 60s.

I hold about 2.5k of LLOY bought at about 59p sometime in late 2018.

Was surprised to see the price to see the SP fall yesterday. Having said that one or two others in our foli fell unexpectedly a little too yesterday. Maybe just due to other things like Brexit/Sterling or due to the unusual Fed rate cut.

I'm happy to hold (and consider top up) since it must be yielding about 6% and I can't see domestic banks with very low capex being anything other than profitable.

I hold Lloyds, but I recognise that there is concern in the market about how destructive the government could be to the economy depending on what happens in respect of Brexit.

That makes investment decisions difficult as there is an unquantifiable risk of lunacy on behalf of the government.

In the case of Lloyds, I suspect that it is the tangible assets that matter. I can't see the 10.4 billion intangible assets having much value - it is not like a drinks co (eg Diageo) where the brands have huge value.

I note that Barclays now seems to be doing rather better this morning. Looks like the divi is being upped to 9p per annum and the NAV per share is well north of the current SP. Also they finally seem to have got past the legacy issues - adjusted profits virtually the same as actual profits this time.

johnhemming wrote:That makes investment decisions difficult as there is an unquantifiable risk of lunacy on behalf of the government.

On the part of the Government?

I do not know why people hold Lloyds, concentrated as they are almost entirely on the UK domestic economy. Still there is a decent yield I suppose.

Dod

I think the UK Economy could do a lot better.

Lloyds must be hoovering up the shares now at a sub 50p price!

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 84213.html

The "other side" of the story
viewtopic.php?p=248832#p248832


"Tesco Bank sells 23,000-customer mortgage arm to Lloyds Banking Group for £3.8bn"

https://www.cityam.com/tesco-sells-mort ... 3-8bn/amp/

monabri wrote:The "other side" of the story
viewtopic.php?p=248832#p248832


"Tesco Bank sells 23,000-customer mortgage arm to Lloyds Banking Group for £3.8bn"

https://www.cityam.com/tesco-sells-mort ... 3-8bn/amp/

Good news, as long they aren't "sub-prime". Are those days over? What about post-Brexit/trade-war recession, should one occur, stressing the family purse strings? I'm not trying to turn things political, but presumably there's up and downside in this.

Matt

Just a reminder from earlier this year that Steve Eisman (The Big Short) was reported to be shorting two UK banks (undisclosed at the time) if a no-deal Brexit were to take place.

At the time Dod suggested LLoyds and RBS were the two banks and was rather abruptly told possibly not - topic here viewtopic.php?t=14585 and that the article 'assumed' it was CYBG and MetroBank.

Neuburger Berman (the fund who Steve Eisman works for) has since disclosed that Eisman's short trades for the two UK banks are indeed Lloyds and RBS.

Dod was correct!

All hail Dod

Cheers, OLTB.

OLTB wrote:Just a reminder from earlier this year that Steve Eisman (The Big Short) was reported to be shorting two UK banks (undisclosed at the time) if a no-deal Brexit were to take place.

At the time Dod suggested LLoyds and RBS were the two banks and was rather abruptly told possibly not - topic here viewtopic.php?t=14585 and that the article 'assumed' it was CYBG and MetroBank.

Neuburger Berman (the fund who Steve Eisman works for) has since disclosed that Eisman's short trades for the two UK banks are indeed Lloyds and RBS.

Dod was correct!

All hail Dod

Cheers, OLTB.

But that was last December's news.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/inv ... s-RBS.html

According to here currently there are no major disclosed short positions on them.

TheMotorcycleBoy wrote:

OLTB wrote:Just a reminder from earlier this year that Steve Eisman (The Big Short) was reported to be shorting two UK banks (undisclosed at the time) if a no-deal Brexit were to take place.

At the time Dod suggested LLoyds and RBS were the two banks and was rather abruptly told possibly not - topic here viewtopic.php?t=14585 and that the article 'assumed' it was CYBG and MetroBank.

Neuburger Berman (the fund who Steve Eisman works for) has since disclosed that Eisman's short trades for the two UK banks are indeed Lloyds and RBS.

Dod was correct!

All hail Dod

Cheers, OLTB.

But that was last December's news.

https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/inv ... s-RBS.html

According to here currently there are no major disclosed short positions on them.

Perhaps the quoted £260k bet is too small to register on the short tracker? It's not exactly betting the farm for a $333bn AUM firm.

Cheers, OLTB.

OLTB wrote:Just a reminder from earlier this year that Steve Eisman (The Big Short) was reported to be shorting two UK banks (undisclosed at the time) if a no-deal Brexit were to take place.

At the time Dod suggested LLoyds and RBS were the two banks and was rather abruptly told possibly not - topic here viewtopic.php?t=14585 and that the article 'assumed' it was CYBG and MetroBank.

Neuburger Berman (the fund who Steve Eisman works for) has since disclosed that Eisman's short trades for the two UK banks are indeed Lloyds and RBS.

Dod was correct!

All hail Dod

Cheers, OLTB.

My halo has just been polished, thanks OLTB.

Dod

I can't see any significant shorting on Lloyd's in Oct,Nov,Dec 18 ( well, often less than, say, shorting of LGEN)

(Whilst ShortTracker reports on levels of 0,5% and above, Euroclear provides the number of shares on loan..even at levels less than 0.5%)

(Select the month*).

https://my.euroclear.com/apps/en/monthl ... breviation


(* use as a guest...you might not have access to latest info but historical data can be browsed).

Dec 2018 @ 1.93% total stock ( LGEN 2.69% !)
Nov 2018 @ 2.19 %
Oct 2018 @ 1.99%

I guess one could check/confirm which banks might have been the targets?