British Land Company PLC (BLND)

[idpickering]

Yikes, I wasn't attempting to be "beastly" (whatever that might be) to anyone, so apologies to both you, and him, if that was the case.

In fact it prompted me to look at the boards, and guidelines, which isn't something I would normally do. The point is that some boards are "...general discussion..." others are "...latest news... and ... discussions..."

Just seemed odd, at least to me, that on one that is surely "news" you get essentially a link to a third party site that is an advert, not even an article, for that site's services. If this site wants to have adverts for other sites on it, which it may or may not, even for finance sites I would think a more appropriate place would be How Do I Invest ("...get help getting started") or Share Ideas ("...Discuss Shares...tips and deals")

Hey ho, you have a point. It's a quick look at BLND followed up by a notice that TMF can help you further - yes, a company recommendation followed by a plug - or advert, if you like.

However, Ian has been posting those sorts of notices for years, and no one has bothered to criticise him for it before. It isn't like an in yer face advert, and I would have though a pretty harmless reminder thatBLND is worth a look.

Nuff said from me.

Like I've often said Arb. I don't know why I bother. As a holder of BLND I thought it was interesting and wanted to bring it to the attention of those that attend this board. I shall think twice before trying to generate chat here again. Thanks for your support Arb.

Ian.

[Dod101]

To be quite honest, these leads to what is actually an ad are not worth the paper they are written on. TMF does this all the time and they are simply not worth reading, although I can see no harm in them. A comment like that on TMF certainly does not make British land 'worth a look'. There is no meaningful insight whatever in these comments.

Dod

[gadjet]

Don't give up, Ian. I find your notifications/comments etc very welcome on various company info. Also, I am invested in BLAND so it is doubly interesting.

Sue

[idpickering]

Don't give up, Ian. I find your notifications/comments etc very welcome on various company info. Also, I am invested in BLAND so it is doubly interesting.

Sue

Thank you Sue. Your kind comment doesn’t detract from the grief I get from some quarters. What gives them the right to attack me as they do is beyond me. Maybe a mod can offer some guidance as to whether these items are worthy of posting here? I shall report my post to bring this to their attention.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

To be quite honest, these leads to what is actually an ad are not worth the paper they are written on. TMF does this all the time and they are simply not worth reading, although I can see no harm in them. A comment like that on TMF certainly does not make British land 'worth a look'. There is no meaningful insight whatever in these comments.

Dod

As you say, there's no harm in them, and it follows that there's no harm in someone mentioning them. To me, the motive is all important, and Ian's instinct is to help. If it was someone "ramping" or plugging some product, that would be objectionable, but in this case that isn't so.

Arb.

[dealtn]

Well so far we have had the terms "beastly", "grief", and "attack" used (as well as "apologies"), and presumably some of that is directed at me. So yes, before this unnecessarily escalates further I agree let us have some moderator intervention and guidance as to which third party links are appropriate for the site, and where they should be posted.

I have already intimated that I think "news" belongs on "news", and suggested where I think "non-news", such as "tips" or similar should reside. Let's have some guidance as my initial post was with the belief and intention that a company specific news board shouldn't get diluted with irrelevant posts, which clearly, and ironically given the number of subsequent replies, was a failure!

[Arborbridge]

Well so far we have had the terms "beastly", "grief", and "attack" used (as well as "apologies"), and presumably some of that is directed at me. So yes, before this unnecessarily escalates further I agree let us have some moderator intervention and guidance as to which third party links are appropriate for the site, and where they should be posted.

I have already intimated that I think "news" belongs on "news", and suggested where I think "non-news", such as "tips" or similar should reside. Let's have some guidance as my initial post was with the belief and intention that a company specific news board shouldn't get diluted with irrelevant posts, which clearly, and ironically given the number of subsequent replies, was a failure!

I just don't understand why you are trying to stir up trouble, making a mountain out of a mole hill.
There's nothing that needs to be done - most people are perfectly clear on what's what. I suggest you let this rather trivial matter drop, as you should have done after your second post - it was you who escalated the matter and are now moaning about it! Unbelievable.

Arb.

[Dod101]

I think most here would agree that TMF 'tips' are not news whatever they are, but I do not think it is worth anyone's while to get worked up about them. Ian does a great job posting stuff that is news and I am sure we all much appreciate those posts. I see no reason why Ian should be banned from posting stuff from TMF; those who don't want to read them can ignore them (as I usually do), but we are all entitled to post our views if we like surely, without having to look over our shoulders in case we upset someone.

I think this thread is the typical 'mountain out of a molehill' and it should be allowed to die a natural death. It does not need moderation unless we all consider ourselves so juvenile that we cannot decide for ourselves. Arb beat me to it with his 'mountain out of a molehill' but I will let my comment stand. Great minds and all that.

Dod

[dspp]

Don't give up, Ian. I find your notifications/comments etc very welcome on various company info. Also, I am invested in BLAND so it is doubly interesting.

Sue

.... Maybe a mod can offer some guidance as to whether these items are worthy of posting here? I shall report my post to bring this to their attention.

Ian.

Moderator Message:
We don't have a strong opinion one way or another regarding you or any other user posting interesting snippets of news regarding companies, that is after all what the news board is for. Likewise we have no reason to give any particular favours to TMF these days - they are in many respects no different than any other investment tip-sheet out there, or for that matter the freebie bits of paid-for research that some brokerages issue, either as teasers, or because they have a mandate to as the in-house company broker. Whether what they have to say is meritorious is another matter, but that is for the reader to judge. So under that cover you or any other user can carry on posting interesting news on the company news boards, which by definition is news you find interesting.

What we do object to is when a user is posting for gain, but my understanding is that you are not doing so. Another thing we object to is users getting snarky and uncivil with each other for no good reason. Therefore I would be grateful if some folk could desist from unnecessary and unwarranted attacks on what are perfectly reasonable posts in the news boards. Or for that matter uncivil defences, and so on ad infinitum. No apologies are required from anyone because it is of course us Mods who have probably not made this clear enough in the past. So if anyone needs to apologise it is us Mods, so consider that done by way of this post.

Going forwards sweetness and light from all would be very much appreciated. Let us hope we don't have to live in too newsworthy a time, today's price action at HUR after their recent RNS is quite enough for one year for me !

regards, dspp

[idpickering]

Thank you for the clarification dspp, I appreciate it. Now let’s move on.

Ian.

[Arborbridge]

Thank you for the clarification dspp, I appreciate it. Now let’s move on.

Ian.

Indeed.

[dealtn]

There seems to be a perpetual doom and gloom about commercial property, particularly anything that can be perceived to have a "retail" exposure.

Interesting therefore to see a broker note, and upgrade, from Goldman Sachs out recently, with a 10% increase in target to 661p. That price level hasn't been seen for approaching 2 years. Latest NAVP north of 850p demonstrates how out of favour the company (and sector) is when even a bullish note has a target more than 20% below the last published NAVP.

[77ss]

Thank you for the clarification dspp, I appreciate it. Now let’s move on.

Ian.

Yes indeed, let us move on to the company concerned, rather than the source.

Has anyone seriously looked at BLND's performance? I do, once in a while.

A negative 5 yr TR (-13.94%). Better of with the much touted CTY (+37.73%).

One has to have a great deal of faith in any 'turnaround' story. A momentary bargain or a long term dog? I don't know and I don't wish to find out!

[Arborbridge]

The past ten years chart is like old Duke of York, marching them up to the top and down again! Who can say where this will end?
The chart is reflected in my TR from 2009 - three years ago around 12%, but now down to 9%. That wouldn't matter so much if the dividend increases had been great, but they have not kept up with inflation (I think I right in saying). So, although I used to regard BLND as a good steady holding, it is certainly beginning to look on the lacklustre side at the moment. No doubt Brexit didn't help and the mix with retail also put the dampers on, but I'm not thinking of selling out. It could be the typical amateur timing of selling when things are at their worst. Or maybe the worst is yet to come

[idpickering]

The past ten years chart is like old Duke of York, marching them up to the top and down again! Who can say where this will end?
The chart is reflected in my TR from 2009 - three years ago around 12%, but now down to 9%. That wouldn't matter so much if the dividend increases had been great, but they have not kept up with inflation (I think I right in saying). So, although I used to regard BLND as a good steady holding, it is certainly beginning to look on the lacklustre side at the moment. No doubt Brexit didn't help and the mix with retail also put the dampers on, but I'm not thinking of selling out. It could be the typical amateur timing of selling when things are at their worst. Or maybe the worst is yet to come

A great post Arb. I can't tell the future of any share, so as a holder of BLND, and happy enough with it (I topped up 3 times last year), I shall continue to hold.

Ian.

[SalvorHardin]

There seems to be a perpetual doom and gloom about commercial property, particularly anything that can be perceived to have a "retail" exposure.

Interesting therefore to see a broker note, and upgrade, from Goldman Sachs out recently, with a 10% increase in target to 661p. That price level hasn't been seen for approaching 2 years. Latest NAVP north of 850p demonstrates how out of favour the company (and sector) is when even a bullish note has a target more than 20% below the last published NAVP.

It's not all doom and gloom. As always the three most important things with property investment are location, location and location. Central London is doing quite well. IMHO the general election result has removed a lot of uncertainty regarding Brexit and the threat of a Corbyn government, thus driving demand for prime locations. I also consider that the long-delayed Crossrail project is not fully priced in by the market; there will be a huge increase in Central London footfall and thus the demand for property when it finally comes online.

Almost all of Derwent London and Great Portland Estates' properties are offices which lie well within the Circle Line (Zone 1). Both companies' share prices recently hit record highs. Most investors on TLF who hold British Land won't be interested in them as they don't meet the HYP criteria (respective yields of 1.6% and 1.3%).

On the day after the vote to leave the EU, British Land shares traded at around 610p (now 585p). I topped up Great Portland Estates on the same day at 505p (now 951p, up 88%).

It isn't all London vs. the rest of the country. SEGRO is big in warehouses outside the M25 and its share price has recently hit an all-time high. The problem with companies like British Land is their exposure to regional retail property, or rather their perceived exposure. From what I remember British Land owns quite a bit of non-retail, but nowadays retail worries drives its share price.

[dealtn]

There seems to be a perpetual doom and gloom about commercial property, particularly anything that can be perceived to have a "retail" exposure.

Interesting therefore to see a broker note, and upgrade, from Goldman Sachs out recently, with a 10% increase in target to 661p. That price level hasn't been seen for approaching 2 years. Latest NAVP north of 850p demonstrates how out of favour the company (and sector) is when even a bullish note has a target more than 20% below the last published NAVP.

Central London is doing quite well. IMHO the general election result has removed a lot of uncertainty regarding Brexit and the threat of a Corbyn government, thus driving demand for prime locations. I also consider that the long-delayed Crossrail project is not fully priced in by the market; there will be a huge increase in Central London footfall and thus the demand for property when it finally comes online.

... The problem with companies like British Land is their exposure to regional retail property, or rather their perceived exposure. From what I remember British Land owns quite a bit of non-retail, but nowadays retail worries drives its share price.

BLND has a very significant exposure to central London, indeed its last press release was specifically an additional purchase, and management contract at the West One centre in Oxford Street/Bond Street. A direct beneficiary of Crossrail (like many other of its sites and development projects).

I agree it's as much to do with perception as anything else. BLND's retail portfolio is less than half, and shrinking as assets are being disposed of (above book value typically). I don't expect a huge recovery anytime soon, but do anticipate a total return investment over time to capture the NAV when the market is ready to oblige.

[Backache]

Yes indeed, let us move on to the company concerned, rather than the source.

Has anyone seriously looked at BLND's performance? I do, once in a while.

A negative 5 yr TR (-13.94%). Better of with the much touted CTY (+37.73%).

One has to have a great deal of faith in any 'turnaround' story. A momentary bargain or a long term dog? I don't know and I don't wish to find out!

If you measure the return in share price it's not done well.
If you look at the performance of the underlying properties assuming the valuations are correct and I don't suspect there is over valuation now that was not present in 2014 annual report the situation is rather different.
NAV up from 688p per share to 905p (Which includes a drop for the year just past so I suspect there is bad news already in the valuation) and dividend up from 27 to 31p ie about 15%
Not spectacular, but clearly not out of line with what you have quoted for the TR of CTY. With the possibility for a rerating if sentiment improves in property

[77ss]

....
If you measure the return in share price it's not done well.
If you look at the performance of the underlying properties assuming the valuations are correct and I don't suspect there is over valuation now that was not present in 2014 annual report the situation is rather different.
NAV up from 688p per share to 905p (Which includes a drop for the year just past so I suspect there is bad news already in the valuation) and dividend up from 27 to 31p ie about 15%
Not spectacular, but clearly not out of line with what you have quoted for the TR of CTY. With the possibility for a rerating if sentiment improves in property

EPRA NAV 856p at the last half year, but that's just a detail. I accept that there is a large discount and hence plenty of scope for a substantial re-rating. Good luck to all holders!

I suspect that ones attitude is going to depend on whether or not one is already a holder. It may not be wholly logical, but if I held I might well hang in there, but being fully built it is just not one I need to add. Mind you, if I had looked at it in August (477p!) I might have been tempted.

This thread illustrates (to me) one of the values of Ian's TMF posts. I agree with Dod that the TMF items are generally useless in themselves, but anything that prompts me to take another look at a share that I do not hold is worthwhile (I just ignore those that deal with shares I hold). Keep it up Ian!

[monabri]

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 01570.html

"The third interim dividend for the quarter ended 31 December 2019 will be 7.9825 pence per share, a 3.0% increase on the comparable period last year. The third interim dividend will be paid on 1 May 2020 to shareholders on the register at close of business on 27 March 2020. The dividend will be a Property Income Distribution and no SCRIP alternative will be offered."