Imperial Brands (IMB)

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

If they reduce their debt (markedly) that seems to be positive step. If the div growth slows then so be it. You can't pay out money when you ain't got none.

I'm not a HYPer but keep this just for diversity and whatever yield is practical, and also for this:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 99800.html

all added up, make me think that perhaps the management are still thinking.

[DrGuid]

I'm well underwater with this one. However I think future me will kick current me for not buying more at 9.35% yield and a PE of 7.2 .

I think smoking has a long term future and hope the company doesn't focus too much on the vaping fad. I work in Asia and I've only ever seen one person vaping in China. It's strange because I thought the whole thing was invented by the Chinese. eCigs are banned in Thailand which is kind of a good thing imho as I had the stupidity of turning down a job offer in London because the boss had a thing for vaping smelly blueberry stuff in the office (which I hate).

[monabri]

I'm well underwater with this one. However I think future me will kick current me for not buying more at 9.35% yield and a PE of 7.2 .

I think smoking has a long term future and hope the company doesn't focus too much on the vaping fad. I work in Asia and I've only ever seen one person vaping in China. It's strange because I thought the whole thing was invented by the Chinese. eCigs are banned in Thailand which is kind of a good thing imho as I had the stupidity of turning down a job offer in London because the boss had a thing for vaping smelly blueberry stuff in the office (which I hate).

Well with a trailing divi of 193.48p and sp of 2006p, you could buy today at 9.6%.

(Like you I thought it was China (a Mr Hon Lik) but I'm not sure ...)

http://www.casaa.org/historical-timelin ... igarettes/

[Spet0789]

If they reduce their debt (markedly) that seems to be positive step. If the div growth slows then so be it. You can't pay out money when you ain't got none.

I'm not a HYPer but keep this just for diversity and whatever yield is practical, and also for this:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 99800.html

all added up, make me think that perhaps the management are still thinking.

With the stock yielding 10%, they should buy back stock before they even think about cutting leverage, which remains very manageable.

Why on earth redeem capital costing 3-4% when you can redeem capital costing 10%+?

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

If they reduce their debt (markedly) that seems to be positive step. If the div growth slows then so be it. You can't pay out money when you ain't got none.

I'm not a HYPer but keep this just for diversity and whatever yield is practical, and also for this:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 99800.html

all added up, make me think that perhaps the management are still thinking.

With the stock yielding 10%, they should buy back stock before they even think about cutting leverage, which remains very manageable.

Why on earth redeem capital costing 3-4% when you can redeem capital costing 10%+?

Hmm...

They look pretty ropey debt wise to me. This is a bit from a recent analysis spread sheet I did for IMB:



Granted my spreadsheet ain't perfect, but the gist of it portrays indebtness at the outer limits of my comfort zone.

Matt

[Spet0789]

If they reduce their debt (markedly) that seems to be positive step. If the div growth slows then so be it. You can't pay out money when you ain't got none.

I'm not a HYPer but keep this just for diversity and whatever yield is practical, and also for this:

https://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/co ... 99800.html

all added up, make me think that perhaps the management are still thinking.

With the stock yielding 10%, they should buy back stock before they even think about cutting leverage, which remains very manageable.

Why on earth redeem capital costing 3-4% when you can redeem capital costing 10%+?

Hmm...

They look pretty ropey debt wise to me. This is a bit from a recent analysis spread sheet I did for IMB:



Granted my spreadsheet ain't perfect, but the gist of it portrays indebtness at the outer limits of my comfort zone.

Matt

To each his own, but given the FCF thrown off by the business and the current low level of interest rates (10 yr UST < 2%) I think the level of debt is very very manageable.

[SentimentRules]

IMB does look tempting. There is one problem buying here though. 2036 to 2012, is a pretty typical target zone for funds 're volume/price Volume/ time zones fall within the above range.

Also from the low, this also gives them the required 10% + return. Not bad in 12 days, return filled. Dangerous place to buy. I dont often recommend a higher price but a close above 12040 would at least be out of the institutional target zone. It means they may hold. Failing that, look for volume around 1920. Be optimal entry if comes there

[Alaric]

It's from the Daily Mail, but even so ....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -plan.html

[miner1000]

It sounds very positive to me. From a HYP perspective, the current yield is 10%ish and therefore the best that a HYPer can expect. If this amount increases ever so slowly for the next twenty years, I for one would be very happy!

[idpickering]

It sounds very positive to me. From a HYP perspective, the current yield is 10%ish and therefore the best that a HYPer can expect. If this amount increases ever so slowly for the next twenty years, I for one would be very happy!

Me too. In fact I've been topping up over the last year, but I'm now up to full weighting in my HYP in relation to max spend. Happy to hold, and enjoy that 10% yield.

Ian.

[Dod101]

IMB does look tempting. There is one problem buying here though. 2036 to 2012, is a pretty typical target zone for funds 're volume/price Volume/ time zones fall within the above range.

Also from the low, this also gives them the required 10% + return. Not bad in 12 days, return filled. Dangerous place to buy. I dont often recommend a higher price but a close above 12040 would at least be out of the institutional target zone. It means they may hold. Failing that, look for volume around 1920. Be optimal entry if comes there

What you say is making sense to me although I will not be attempting to follow your example. I am no trader except very rarely. The problem with your approach is that it is diametrically opposite to almost everyone here who are mostly LTBH.

My need is income and so I run an income portfolio, but not a HYP in the narrow definition of the HYP Practical Board and many run a variation of the HYP except for a few who are totally dedicated to it.

Good luck to you.

Dod

[Dod101]

It's from the Daily Mail, but even so ....

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... -plan.html

The trouble with this sort of aspiration is that it runs contrary to the Government's fiscal needs and the other point is alluded to in some of the comments. Where does it stop? Next there will be an attempt to stop us drinking alcohol. That does few of us much good, but then in the long run what does?

Dod

[Alaric]

It sounds very positive to me.

What the article was suggesting is that by persuasion or otherwise, the UK government is looking to reduce demand for what is presumably Imperial Brands' major product line, tobacco in the form of cigarettes, in what is presumably one of its major markets, the UK to zero. If you don't or cannot sell a product, there are no profits and no dividends.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

I'm sure that article Alaric posted is nonsense. Just like David Cameron's proposal to end online porn.

But the DM like it, cos it sells advertising space.

[SentimentRules]

IMB does look tempting. There is one problem buying here though. 2036 to 2012, is a pretty typical target zone for funds 're volume/price Volume/ time zones fall within the above range.

Also from the low, this also gives them the required 10% + return. Not bad in 12 days, return filled. Dangerous place to buy. I dont often recommend a higher price but a close above 12040 would at least be out of the institutional target zone. It means they may hold. Failing that, look for volume around 1920. Be optimal entry if comes there

What you say is making sense to me although I will not be attempting to follow your example. I am no trader except very rarely. The problem with your approach is that it is diametrically opposite to almost everyone here who are mostly LTBH.

My need is income and so I run an income portfolio, but not a HYP in the narrow definition of the HYP Practical Board and many run a variation of the HYP except for a few who are totally dedicated to it.

Good luck to you.

Dod

These days DOD, hybrid approach is important.

A good trader has investor knowledge. A good capital/income investor has trader knowledge.

All funds that are credible do this. Inc pension funds etc.

Example. Your research suggests to you, stock x is a good one for a HYP. But...you then need to apply trader knowledge for timing. The market may not agree with you until 30% lower say. And 30% lower is a threat to the yield rate very often. And obviously capital. So trader timing important to get that capital buffer so you can lock down capital inputs soon. Then there will be a risk free total return regardless

Also a trader shouldn't time into a buy if a big lump of the market isn't behind him (money)
I don't take a trade, if the capital and income investors have no reason to go in and support me to my target.

But saying all that, anyone can buy. It's when to sell is the real skill I suppose. Bear markets will test that .

My basic understanding of HYP is to buy and hold forever? Well, can you show me a fund today, who successfully applied this say in 2006.

I don't mean show me a credible institution that simply held a stock for a decade. These guys are long covering, setting capital input risks at 0% and so on. Not really a buy x amount and hold forever.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

Also a trader shouldn't time into a buy if a big lump of the market isn't behind him (money)
I don't take a trade, if the capital and income investors have no reason to go in and support me to my target.

So, out of interest, how do you know if a big lump of the market is behind you or not? Do you use level 2 to discover this?

Matt

[SentimentRules]

No Matt. Level 2, to be blunt, is just a book of bullshit. Institutions and funds never want to show when they are buying truly. Because if market sees it, price starts to rise . They dont want that.

Same with when they want to dump it. Don'tI want market to see it so they can keep dumping at higher prices.

Anyway they can do discretionary orders etc on level 2. Only say show an order at 500 shares, but truly an order there for 500,000 and so on.

A lot more could be said about level 2 but wont bore you.

Suffice to say, anything the public can See, will be manipulated. Legally of course. But manipulated data from the funds

Only way to see them in true action is volume and moneyflow based. And I don't mean a couple of indicators on a chart. Get that right, they can't hide that.

Some say that dark pools skew volumes etc. not true. Because they always feed each other data. So some other Mickey mouse fund will show the hand unwittingly anyway.

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

No Matt. Level 2, to be blunt, is just a book of bullshit. Institutions and funds never want to show when they are buying truly. Because if market sees it, price starts to rise . They dont want that.

Same with when they want to dump it. Don'tI want market to see it so they can keep dumping at higher prices.

Anyway they can do discretionary orders etc on level 2. Only say show an order at 500 shares, but truly an order there for 500,000 and so on.

A lot more could be said about level 2 but wont bore you.

Suffice to say, anything the public can See, will be manipulated. Legally of course. But manipulated data from the funds

Only way to see them in true action is volume and moneyflow based. And I don't mean a couple of indicators on a chart. Get that right, they can't hide that.

Some say that dark pools skew volumes etc. not true. Because they always feed each other data. So some other Mickey mouse fund will show the hand unwittingly anyway.

Thanks that makes sense. It's obvious that the whole thing is rigged more in favour in of the financial organisations.

Ok...so when you said this earlier to Dod:

Also a trader shouldn't time into a buy if a big lump of the market isn't behind him (money)
I don't take a trade, if the capital and income investors have no reason to go in and support me to my target.

How do you know personally if the market is behind your trade? Or were you making that remark from a hypothetical standpoint?

Matt

[TheMotorcycleBoy]

e.g. This is a candlestick chart of IMB trades:

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/exc ... 9GBGBXSET1

if you set it on "TODAY" and select "candle" for line type, you can see several big red bars between about 8:15 and 8:22. Is that from short sellers closing out or something?

Matt

[88V8]

SP down 1% today - just topped up.
We already have quite a few, currently in OH's account with a big loss after our CGT two-step last year, but the new dividend policy sounds much more credible so even though it may be a falling knife at the moment I'm happy to increase our holding.

As has been said, I think they'll go on long enough to see me out.

V8