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Diageo (DGE)

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idpickering
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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626505

Postby idpickering » November 10th, 2023, 7:11 am

Diageo issues trading update.

Diageo issues trading update due to a weaker performance outlook in Latin America and Caribbean and updated medium term guidance ahead of 2023 Capital Markets Event

10 November 2023, London, UK: On 28 September 2023, Diageo issued a trading statement which stated that our outlook for fiscal 24 had not changed since 1 August 2023. At that time, our expectation for the group was for the first half of fiscal 24 to see a gradual improvement in organic net sales growth from the second half of fiscal 23.

We have momentum continuing in four of our five regions, however at the group level, in the first half of fiscal 24, we now expect to see slower growth than the second half of fiscal 23. This is due to a materially weaker performance outlook in Latin America and Caribbean (LAC), which is nearly 11% of Diageo's net sales value (fiscal 23), and is now expected to decline organic net sales by more than 20%, year-on-year, in the first half of fiscal 24.

In other regions:

· Currently, in North America, we expect gradual improvement in organic net sales growth in the first half of fiscal 24 of compared to the second half of fiscal 23, while maintaining distributor inventory in line with historical levels.

· We also expect to see improvement in the rate of net sales growth in Africa in the first half of fiscal 24 compared to the second half of fiscal 23.

· In Europe and Asia Pacific, we see continued momentum, albeit slower than in the second half of fiscal 23. In Europe, growth continues to be strong despite geopolitical tensions escalating in the Middle East, where we are a leading spirits company. In Asia Pacific, we continue to see momentum with good growth, despite slower than expected recovery in China.


https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcem ... te/7872950

Ian (No holding).

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626517

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 10th, 2023, 8:55 am

Down 11%. Quite dramatic for a blue chip like Diageo. Even so, the dividend yield is ‘only’ 2.9%.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626521

Postby monabri » November 10th, 2023, 9:11 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Down 11%. Quite dramatic for a blue chip like Diageo. Even so, the dividend yield is ‘only’ 2.9%.

Best wishes


Mark.



Remember AZN on reports of a failed drug trial in 2017 ( and note the shareprice!).

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AZN/az-report ... 70e11.html

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626545

Postby monabri » November 10th, 2023, 11:15 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Down 11%. Quite dramatic for a blue chip like Diageo. Even so, the dividend yield is ‘only’ 2.9%.

Best wishes


Mark.



It's a bit more dramatic at ~16% down at 2721p! These high yield shares eh?

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626561

Postby BullDog » November 10th, 2023, 12:39 pm

Oh dear.

idpickering
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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626563

Postby idpickering » November 10th, 2023, 12:42 pm

BullDog wrote:Oh dear.


Not so lol methinks?

To be fair though, the FTSE100 is down too.

This quality company just got 15% cheaper. Anyone buying DGE today here? No me to be honest.

Ian.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626566

Postby monabri » November 10th, 2023, 1:02 pm

I'm guessing that what has spooked the market is the announcement coming just 6 weeks after the 28th September trading update.

( I hold DGE at ~4.5% of portfolio value).

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626572

Postby Turf » November 10th, 2023, 1:17 pm

I jumped in this morning with a 5k buy but should have not been so eager, I could have get them even cheaper, a stock I will probably hold forever.

idpickering
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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626576

Postby idpickering » November 10th, 2023, 1:32 pm

Turf wrote:I jumped in this morning with a 5k buy but should have not been so eager, I could have get them even cheaper, a stock I will probably hold forever.


Thanks for your input, and monabris’ too. Good luck with your purchase.

Ian.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626582

Postby kempiejon » November 10th, 2023, 2:12 pm

Turf wrote:I jumped in this morning with a 5k buy but should have not been so eager, I could have get them even cheaper, a stock I will probably hold forever.


I see over the past year it has become 25% cheaper. You never know you might just have called about bottom. If they're a good pick however you deduce this and you think it has prospects buy, like you say a share to hold forever.
If one thinks the 14% drop today will reverse next week or next month, I think that's a bit more of a stretch. If it hadn't been for this chatty board I never would have noticed my holding has declined 25% this year but I see have more than made my money over my holding period.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626656

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » November 10th, 2023, 10:07 pm

monabri wrote:
ADrunkenMarcus wrote:Down 11%. Quite dramatic for a blue chip like Diageo. Even so, the dividend yield is ‘only’ 2.9%.

Best wishes


Mark.



Remember AZN on reports of a failed drug trial in 2017 ( and note the shareprice!).

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AZN/az-report ... 70e11.html


I do. I hold AZN, which is over 8% of my dividend growth portfolio, and DGE, which is (now) 4.5% and was somewhat more yesterday. Short term noise as both have multi bagged for me and both have returned a multiple of their book cost in dividends.

I suspect other drinks companies may experience similar if they disappoint. Brown-Forman?

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626668

Postby YeeWo » November 11th, 2023, 7:04 am

"Tom Shropshire, General Counsel and Company Secretary, is responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of Diageo."

I noticed the above in the incriminating RNS. I do wonder if Debra Crew & Mr Shropshire haven't quite worked-out how they're going to work together!? IIRC Diageo has a sustainable dividend, manageable (albeit growing) debt, £1bn+ in buybacks and a ROCE of comfortably 20%+.

Greedy when others are fearful comes to mind........

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626738

Postby monabri » November 11th, 2023, 1:15 pm

YeeWo wrote:"Tom Shropshire, General Counsel and Company Secretary, is responsible for arranging the release of this announcement on behalf of Diageo."

I noticed the above in the incriminating RNS. I do wonder if Debra Crew & Mr Shropshire haven't quite worked-out how they're going to work together!? IIRC Diageo has a sustainable dividend, manageable (albeit growing) debt, £1bn+ in buybacks and a ROCE of comfortably 20%+.

Greedy when others are fearful comes to mind........



At one point on Friday, the DGE shareprice was a mere 12% higher than on March 20th 2020. Have things really not significantly improved since then?

source: https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=dge+s ... nt=gws-wiz

The US, a major market for DGE, saw it's first Covid lockdown on March 12 2020. The rest of Europe followed.

Image

source : https://www.politico.eu/article/europes ... -compared/

Image

A major quality company like Diageo is trading at a shareprice not much higher than when Covid hit..sentiment for UK stocks must be pretty low! I tend to agree with Mr Train:

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ne ... to-resist/

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626739

Postby monabri » November 11th, 2023, 1:21 pm

edit:

Having looked at Brown Forman's shareprice...maybe the drinks industry is indeed under pressure. The Brown Forman group shareprice in the US is not exactly flying relative to March 2020 neither!

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626741

Postby BullDog » November 11th, 2023, 1:34 pm

monabri wrote:edit:

Having looked at Brown Forman's shareprice...maybe the drinks industry is indeed under pressure. The Brown Forman group shareprice in the US is not exactly flying relative to March 2020 neither!

Interesting comparison to make. At HL comparing share price appreciation over ten years, Brown Forman has delivered around 100% while Diageo lags considerably behind with less than half that. I think it's possible DGE as a global company could move it's primary listing out of London. Several companies have done so.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626790

Postby Dod101 » November 11th, 2023, 6:20 pm

Considering that investing in international shares has got to be one of the more borderless activities, I puzzle to understand why moving a primary listing from London to NY should lead to a sudden increase in the share price. I am not saying that it may not happen but cannot understand why. Is it regulation, liquidity, inclusion in different indices or what?

As for Diageo, It is still the same company with the same management where ever it is quoted, but as far as I am concerned it has not been a brilliant investment. That is all down to timing of course. It has great and well known brands but even a great company does not necessarily grow for ever.

Dod

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#626796

Postby SalvorHardin » November 11th, 2023, 6:53 pm

Dod101 wrote:Considering that investing in international shares has got to be one of the more borderless activities, I puzzle to understand why moving a primary listing from London to NY should lead to a sudden increase in the share price. I am not saying that it may not happen but cannot understand why. Is it regulation, liquidity, inclusion in different indices or what?

As for Diageo, It is still the same company with the same management where ever it is quoted, but as far as I am concerned it has not been a brilliant investment. That is all down to timing of course. It has great and well known brands but even a great company does not necessarily grow for ever.

The share price should increase if the listing moves to the NYSE due to several factors.

The NYSE is a vastly more liquid stockmarket than London (Apple's market capitalisation is a bit larger than the sum of the entire FTSE100).

American investors generally put a higher PE ratio on a NYSE primary listed company than a secondary listed company. The inevitable comparisons with Brown-Forman will show that Diageo is undervalued.

More Americans would become interested in Diageo, driving up demand for the shares. Diageo would very quickly enter the S&P500.

I want Diageo to move to America. Britain is not particularly friendly to businesses and is likely to become even less friendly after the next General Election.

As to Diageo as an investment, it's one of the few companies that I am pretty confident that it is still operating in a hundred years time and making a lot more money than today (the only others in which I own shares are Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific).

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#627384

Postby dubre » November 14th, 2023, 11:01 am

Is there a widespread trend away from alcoholic drinks, spirits in particular?

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#627389

Postby BullDog » November 14th, 2023, 11:15 am

SalvorHardin wrote:
Dod101 wrote:Considering that investing in international shares has got to be one of the more borderless activities, I puzzle to understand why moving a primary listing from London to NY should lead to a sudden increase in the share price. I am not saying that it may not happen but cannot understand why. Is it regulation, liquidity, inclusion in different indices or what?

As for Diageo, It is still the same company with the same management where ever it is quoted, but as far as I am concerned it has not been a brilliant investment. That is all down to timing of course. It has great and well known brands but even a great company does not necessarily grow for ever.

The share price should increase if the listing moves to the NYSE due to several factors.

The NYSE is a vastly more liquid stockmarket than London (Apple's market capitalisation is a bit larger than the sum of the entire FTSE100).

American investors generally put a higher PE ratio on a NYSE primary listed company than a secondary listed company. The inevitable comparisons with Brown-Forman will show that Diageo is undervalued.

More Americans would become interested in Diageo, driving up demand for the shares. Diageo would very quickly enter the S&P500.

I want Diageo to move to America. Britain is not particularly friendly to businesses and is likely to become even less friendly after the next General Election.

As to Diageo as an investment, it's one of the few companies that I am pretty confident that it is still operating in a hundred years time and making a lot more money than today (the only others in which I own shares are Union Pacific and Canadian Pacific).

That would me my take too. Personally I think it would be in shareholders best interests for BP and Shell to also move primary listing out of the UK to the USA.

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Re: Diageo (DGE)

#627403

Postby simoan » November 14th, 2023, 12:09 pm

dubre wrote:Is there a widespread trend away from alcoholic drinks, spirits in particular?

Oh come on, really? It's the laziest thing ever to extrapolate what is happening in this silly little island to the rest of the world. The idea that everyone is going to stop drinking alcohol (something mankind has been doing since, like, forever) is silly. The idea that increasing wealth within the middle classes of some huge developing countries will not be attracted to drinking premium branded spirits is the reason for holding companies like Diageo. If you believe that won't happen, then don't.


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