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Thoughts on holidays?

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool

Should people be allowed to go on foreign holidays this year?

No. Close the borders and no holiday travel
41
53%
Allow holiday travel with enforced hotel quarantine on return
7
9%
Let people travel - mum's been vaccinated anyway.
20
26%
Anything else
9
12%
 
Total votes: 77

Clitheroekid
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402967

Postby Clitheroekid » April 9th, 2021, 6:06 pm

This is a DAK, but I thought it'd be better posted here, the question being DAK why the daily number of vaccinations has dropped so much recently?

In the dirge like evening news reports of the daily figures the one bright spot was the daily vaccination rates, which were very high - typically into the hundreds of thousands. But in the last few days the figures have been far lower - tens, rather than hundreds.

I've just checked, and my perception was correct - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations. On 20 March there were an astonishing 752,308 vaccinations in just that one day - almost as many as Pakistan has managed in total. But by 5 April this had shrunk to just 40,744, and the last couple of days have only seen figures of under 100,000.

Bearing in mind that there is still a significant portion of the population that haven't been jabbed I can't work out why there has been such a steep decline. Any thoughts?

Also, assuming this massive decline has created far more vaccination capacity, why has it not resulted in those of us waiting our Jab 2.0 not being called in sooner than we expected?

Lootman
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402975

Postby Lootman » April 9th, 2021, 6:22 pm

Julian wrote:
swill453 wrote:Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Interesting. I'm somewhat alarmed to wake up this morning to rumours in the papers that holidays might be opening up, at least under a traffic light system, potentially from as early as May 17th (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56682226).

There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th. And the traffic light system would minimise risk by retaining restrictions on the higher-risk countries. This would be good news for travel to the places that have vaccinated at least as well as the UK has e.g. places like the US and Israel (although nether country is currently allowing in UK nationals without a good reason). Perhaps Jet2, which only operates cheap short-haul flights, is concerned with the cost of the required PCR tests, which are expensive relative to the cost of their flights. For a long-haul flight in a premium cabin on BA or VS, the relative cost isn't so bad.

Canada and various places in Europe should also be in the Green zone, which would still require tests before and after flying. I would be very comfortable making trips to green zone countries as of May 17th, having been fully vaccinated myself.

swill453
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402978

Postby swill453 » April 9th, 2021, 6:26 pm

Clitheroekid wrote:This is a DAK, but I thought it'd be better posted here, the question being DAK why the daily number of vaccinations has dropped so much recently?

In the dirge like evening news reports of the daily figures the one bright spot was the daily vaccination rates, which were very high - typically into the hundreds of thousands. But in the last few days the figures have been far lower - tens, rather than hundreds.

I've just checked, and my perception was correct - https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/vaccinations. On 20 March there were an astonishing 752,308 vaccinations in just that one day - almost as many as Pakistan has managed in total. But by 5 April this had shrunk to just 40,744, and the last couple of days have only seen figures of under 100,000.

Bearing in mind that there is still a significant portion of the population that haven't been jabbed I can't work out why there has been such a steep decline. Any thoughts?

Also, assuming this massive decline has created far more vaccination capacity, why has it not resulted in those of us waiting our Jab 2.0 not being called in sooner than we expected?

Seems you're not looking at the 2nd vaccination figures. We're now doing more 2nds than 1sts. Yesterday the number was 449,269.

Scott.

AsleepInYorkshire
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402979

Postby AsleepInYorkshire » April 9th, 2021, 6:32 pm

Lootman wrote:
Julian wrote:
swill453 wrote:Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Interesting. I'm somewhat alarmed to wake up this morning to rumours in the papers that holidays might be opening up, at least under a traffic light system, potentially from as early as May 17th (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56682226).

There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th. And the traffic light system would minimise risk by retaining restrictions on the higher-risk countries. This would be good news for travel to the places that have vaccinated at least as well as the UK has e.g. places like the US and Israel (although nether country is currently allowing in UK nationals without a good reason). Perhaps Jet2, which only operates cheap short-haul flights, is concerned with the cost of the required PCR tests, which are expensive relative to the cost of their flights. For a long-haul flight in a premium cabin on BA or VS, the relative cost isn't so bad.

Canada and various places in Europe should also be in the Green zone, which would still require tests before and after flying. I would be very comfortable making trips to green zone countries as of May 17th, having been fully vaccinated myself.

Just a small point if I may please. Jet2 don't just operate cheap flights. They also sell package holidays. We've been on one with Jet2 and found them to be very professional.

AiY

9873210
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#402995

Postby 9873210 » April 9th, 2021, 7:41 pm

Lootman wrote:There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th.


This is not entirely under the control of the UK or of Jet2. You have to find a place that will let you in. Some countries are still closed entirely, many others require long quarantines, restrict the reasons for entry, or both. Casual border hopping is a thing of the past, and perhaps the future, but not a thing of 2021.

There are probably be a very few places that are so desperate for tourist money that you will be able to holiday there in 2021 but they probably won't let you leave the resorts.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403004

Postby Lootman » April 9th, 2021, 8:11 pm

9873210 wrote:
Lootman wrote:There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th.

This is not entirely under the control of the UK or of Jet2. You have to find a place that will let you in. Some countries are still closed entirely, many others require long quarantines, restrict the reasons for entry, or both. Casual border hopping is a thing of the past, and perhaps the future, but not a thing of 2021.

There are probably be a very few places that are so desperate for tourist money that you will be able to holiday there in 2021 but they probably won't let you leave the resorts.

It all depends on what is announced for May 17th of course, and that announcement may only be made a week or so before then.

But the gist of what I have been hearing is that the countries in the so-called green zone will escape the need for any form of quarantine upon return, and maybe just one test before and after travel. I suspect that will be good enough for many holidaymakers. And I also expect reciprocal arrangements between green zone country pairs, allowing entry to UK visitors with either a vaccination certificate and/or on the basis of a topical negative test result. The US in particular I would expect to see reciprocity for, since there is usually so much travel between the two places. Whilst some tourist locations are already inviting visitors with proof of vaccination.

But yes, there are only a few countries that I would visit right now. It might be a few months before that is meaningfully increased. But then again, many of the worst-infected countries I have no interest in visiting anyway. And some countries are dead to me now because of the little islander policies they have pursued.

9873210
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403012

Postby 9873210 » April 9th, 2021, 8:56 pm

Lootman wrote:It all depends on what is announced for May 17th of course, and that announcement may only be made a week or so before then.

No it doesn't. That will be an announcement by the UK government and Her Majesty's Government does not have the final say in if you are allowed into other countries.

What do you expect them to announce? That they are changing the frontispiece of British passports to read "Her Imperial Majesty's principle Secretary of State for Dealing with Lesser People requests and requires that you provide all lawful and unlawful assistance to allow this virus infested wretch to spread plague in your wretched benighted land."?

Countries with a worse COVID situation than the UK will be on the UK red list.
Countries with a better COVID situation than the UK will have the UK on their red/rouge/roja/красный/赤 list.

Travel not be easy.

Lootman
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403015

Postby Lootman » April 9th, 2021, 9:11 pm

9873210 wrote:
Lootman wrote:It all depends on what is announced for May 17th of course, and that announcement may only be made a week or so before then.

No it doesn't. That will be an announcement by the UK government and Her Majesty's Government does not have the final say in if you are allowed into other countries.

What do you expect them to announce? That they are changing the frontispiece of British passports to read "Her Imperial Majesty's principle Secretary of State for Dealing with Lesser People requests and requires that you provide all lawful and unlawful assistance to allow this virus infested wretch to spread plague in your wretched benighted land."?

Countries with a worse COVID situation than the UK will be on the UK red list.
Countries with a better COVID situation than the UK will have the UK on their red/rouge/roja/красный/赤 list.

Travel not be easy.

Like I said, there will be reciprocal arrangements between various green zone country pairs where both sides see benefit to so doing. This will be particularly easy between countries with advanced vaccination programmes, such as the UK and the US. Typical vacation spots for UK tourists will obviously be motivated as well.

Of course some countries have their heads stuck in the sand over this, but those are the nations that will lose the discretionary spend by tourists.

I have foreign travel plans for late May and fully expect to take that trip.

mao44
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403247

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:11 pm

Julian wrote:
swill453 wrote:Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Scott.

Interesting. I'm somewhat alarmed to wake up this morning to rumours in the papers that holidays might be opening up, at least under a traffic light system, potentially from as early as May 17th (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56682226). We've seen from Chile what can happen if countries get complacent about their vaccination program and unlock too early. Admittedly that might be because the efficacy data on one of the vaccines they are heavily relying on (Sinovac) doesn't look nearly as good as the efficacy the UK is seeing for Pfizer and AZ against our current dominant variants but if we let something like the SA variant get a foothold too soon, i.e. before booster jabs are available, we could well end up maybe not in as bad a place as Chile is in right now but possibly with a third wave in late 2021 that is much worse than it otherwise could have been. I see a window of risk between very significant unlocking and the start of the rollout of booster jabs and I wonder whether even shortening that window of risk by a month or two might have a very significant impact on what we see in terms of severity of any third wave in Q4 2021.

I also wonder what this might do to local hotels, B&Bs, holiday rentals etc. There is much chatter amongst my friends about how expensive staycations are this year. If international travel does conditionally open up as early as 17th May might a large number of people start thinking "even with testing I can now go to Italy/Spain/Greece/wherever for about the same price as the price-inflated-due-to-demand B&B that I booked in Cornwall so I'm going to cancel that and go overseas instead"? I suppose if that does happen the cancelled bookings might get taken up by people like me who have already decided not to travel internationally over at least the summer and autumn (I'll re-assess in October/November depending on the situation with vaccines and variants) but if those businesses ended up with large gaps in their occupancy that would be a very cruel blow after the hellish year they've just gone through. (And no, it's not all down to personal greed. I know a couple of people who let out holiday homes and they use web sites that automatically do dynamic pricing for them based on estimated demand so they don't actually set their own prices. One friend looked at her own listing out of interest a month or so ago and saw that it was being listed for about double the usual summer rate and thought "there's no way that's going to rent out". She came back about 10 days later to try and block out 2 weeks for herself over the summer and it was 100% booked for months into summer and early autumn.)

- Julian


My bold. It's more expensive here than abroad and weather definitely not guaranteed here!!

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403249

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:17 pm

Lootman wrote:
Julian wrote:
swill453 wrote:Jet2 suspends flights and holidays until late June due to uncertainty over government travel plans https://news.sky.com/story/jet2-suspend ... s-12270156

Interesting. I'm somewhat alarmed to wake up this morning to rumours in the papers that holidays might be opening up, at least under a traffic light system, potentially from as early as May 17th (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-56682226).

There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th. And the traffic light system would minimise risk by retaining restrictions on the higher-risk countries. This would be good news for travel to the places that have vaccinated at least as well as the UK has e.g. places like the US and Israel (although nether country is currently allowing in UK nationals without a good reason). Perhaps Jet2, which only operates cheap short-haul flights, is concerned with the cost of the required PCR tests, which are expensive relative to the cost of their flights. For a long-haul flight in a premium cabin on BA or VS, the relative cost isn't so bad.

Canada and various places in Europe should also be in the Green zone, which would still require tests before and after flying. I would be very comfortable making trips to green zone countries as of May 17th, having been fully vaccinated myself.


There was mention in the news that LF tests might be considered which are currently free!!

Lootman
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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403250

Postby Lootman » April 10th, 2021, 6:19 pm

mao44 wrote:It's more expensive here than abroad and weather definitely not guaranteed here!!

Yes, the real point is that fares and holidays are very cheap right now for overseas destinations precisely because foreign travel is in doubt. Once foreign travel is allowed, demand will go through the roof, and either you will not be able to book what you want, or the price will be too high.

So it makes perfect sense to book a bargain trip now, in the knowledge that you can get a refund or credit if your plans need to change. From my perspective there is no downside to beating the rush and locking in a cheap price, since you can always cancel later (havng read the small print to be sure that you can).

Frankly the thought of being in the Lake District or on the South Coast this summer with a million grockles, oiks and chavs fills me with dread.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403253

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:21 pm

9873210 wrote:
Lootman wrote:There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th.


This is not entirely under the control of the UK or of Jet2. You have to find a place that will let you in. Some countries are still closed entirely, many others require long quarantines, restrict the reasons for entry, or both. Casual border hopping is a thing of the past, and perhaps the future, but not a thing of 2021.

There are probably be a very few places that are so desperate for tourist money that you will be able to holiday there in 2021 but they probably won't let you leave the resorts.


I believe Spain, Greece and Turkey that foreign tourists will be welcome from May.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403254

Postby swill453 » April 10th, 2021, 6:21 pm

mao44 wrote:There was mention in the news that LF tests might be considered which are currently free!!

The problem is that the free ones are self-administered. So how could anyone be sure if you'd actually taken the test? Far too easy to fake it.

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403255

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:22 pm

mao44 wrote:
9873210 wrote:
Lootman wrote:There is huge pent-up demand for overseas holidays and so it might be very difficult for the UK government to play things too safe, not to mention the adverse effect that would have on UK flight and holiday operators.

I am surprised by the Jet2 decision since the indications remain that overseas travel will be allowed from May 17th.


This is not entirely under the control of the UK or of Jet2. You have to find a place that will let you in. Some countries are still closed entirely, many others require long quarantines, restrict the reasons for entry, or both. Casual border hopping is a thing of the past, and perhaps the future, but not a thing of 2021.

There are probably be a very few places that are so desperate for tourist money that you will be able to holiday there in 2021 but they probably won't let you leave the resorts.


I believe Spain, Greece and Turkey that foreign tourists will be welcome from May.


*have announced*

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403258

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:28 pm

Lootman wrote:
mao44 wrote:It's more expensive here than abroad and weather definitely not guaranteed here!!

Yes, the real point is that fares and holidays are very cheap right now for overseas destinations precisely because foreign travel is in doubt. Once foreign travel is allowed, demand will go through the roof, and either you will not be able to book what you want, or the price will be too high.

So it makes perfect sense to book a bargain trip now, in the knowledge that you can get a refund or credit if your plans need to change. From my perspective there is no downside to beating the rush and locking in a cheap price, since you can always cancel later (havng read the small print to be sure that you can).

Frankly the thought of being in the Lake District or on the South Coast this summer with a million grockles, oiks and chavs fills me with dread.


That's why we booked when the vaccinations testing was announced as being successful. Locked in a good deal similar to the deal we got last August.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403260

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:38 pm

swill453 wrote:
mao44 wrote:There was mention in the news that LF tests might be considered which are currently free!!

The problem is that the free ones are self-administered. So how could anyone be sure if you'd actually taken the test? Far too easy to fake it.

Scott.


It was not announced where they will be administered just that they were considering using them.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403262

Postby swill453 » April 10th, 2021, 6:41 pm

mao44 wrote:It was not announced where they will be administered just that they were considering using them.

Well you ain''t going to get a free one processed by a lab!

Scott.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403269

Postby mao44 » April 10th, 2021, 6:57 pm

swill453 wrote:
mao44 wrote:It was not announced where they will be administered just that they were considering using them.

Well you ain''t going to get a free one processed by a lab!

Scott.


Maybe not but they will be far cheaper than the PCR tests.

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403323

Postby Mike4 » April 10th, 2021, 10:55 pm

swill453 wrote:
mao44 wrote:It was not announced where they will be administered just that they were considering using them.

Well you ain''t going to get a free one processed by a lab!

Scott.



How does having it processed by a lab guarantee the swabs were taken correctly, or even from the right person?

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Re: Thoughts on holidays?

#403349

Postby redsturgeon » April 11th, 2021, 9:05 am

Unfortunately for the UK the requirement for test for foreign travel is governed by the receiving country rather than by the UK. Thus the USA and Germany will accept lateral flow test but most other countries require PCR for UK travellers. The base costs for LF test will be less than PCR though.

All countries require the test to have been carried out and certificated by an approved body. There is a process that UK companies must go through to achieved accreditation described here:

https://www.ukas.com/resources/latest-n ... 9-testing/

This process requires investment and ongoing costs which have to be covered by any testing fee. This infrastructure ensures a certain minimum standard but also increases the base cost of any testing, either PCR or LF.

With regard to day 2 and 8 testing which the government mandates be carried out via PCR tests, the government set the price at £210 to cover costs when they where the monopoly provider. Since opening up to private companies the base cost has reduced below this figure. So for the government to suggest profiteering by private providers is farcical. Also VAT is chargeable on this testing when done by private providers but does not apply to those done by the NHS.

The private providers are free to set their own prices but all are listed on the government website readily available for all to check before booking. We charge above the base price since we would not be able to manage an unrestricted number of customers. If the government tried to lower or limit the pricing for these test then many companies like our would have to drop out of the system.

John


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