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India variant

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Lootman
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Re: India variant

#405480

Postby Lootman » April 19th, 2021, 9:56 pm

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:
Mike4 wrote:I don't see why the airports cannot be closed at the drop of a hat. That would fix it.

After all we seem able to do it with our pubs.

Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

You've asked this type of question before. Why does someone else always have to do it first?

A better question is why would a major transit point like the UK do it? Even paranoid and way out of the way remote places like New Zealand have not gone that far. Auckland airport has been open every day since the epidemic started, albeit with restrictions.

Our strategy has been to be responsive to different levels of risk, both with our national tiers and with our colour codes for other nations. We are data driven and discriminating. You just want us instead to go into a blind panic and throw rational decision making out of the window.

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Re: India variant

#405485

Postby Lanark » April 19th, 2021, 10:28 pm

Lootman wrote:Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

Scotland requires 10 days quarantine for all flights.

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Re: India variant

#405486

Postby Lanark » April 19th, 2021, 10:30 pm

We asked the government why it wasn't added before but have not yet had a response.

"Nobody knows the full criteria - but there may be a political element because the UK wants a trade deal with India," Dr Simon Clarke, associate professor in cellular microbiology, at the University of Reading, said.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/56801288

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Re: India variant

#405488

Postby Mike4 » April 19th, 2021, 10:44 pm

Lootman wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

You've asked this type of question before. Why does someone else always have to do it first?

A better question is why would a major transit point like the UK do it? Even paranoid and way out of the way remote places like New Zealand have not gone that far. Auckland airport has been open every day since the epidemic started, albeit with restrictions.

Our strategy has been to be responsive to different levels of risk, both with our national tiers and with our colour codes for other nations. We are data driven and discriminating. You just want us instead to go into a blind panic and throw rational decision making out of the window.


Well the result for us so far has been one of the highest death rates per million of population in the world. What was it Einstein said about doing the same thing over again and expecting different results?

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Re: India variant

#405493

Postby Lootman » April 19th, 2021, 11:37 pm

Lanark wrote:
Lootman wrote:Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

Scotland requires 10 days quarantine for all flights.

And what stops anyone flying into Newcastle airport and then travelling to Scotland by train or car?

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Re: India variant

#405496

Postby Mike4 » April 19th, 2021, 11:55 pm

Lootman wrote:
Lanark wrote:
Lootman wrote:Can you cite any country that has closed all its airports and seaports to all traffic?

Scotland requires 10 days quarantine for all flights.

And what stops anyone flying into Newcastle airport and then travelling to Scotland by train or car?


Ah yes, the old "if it isn't 100% perfect, we shouldn't do it at all" argument....

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Re: India variant

#405497

Postby servodude » April 20th, 2021, 12:07 am

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:
Lanark wrote:Scotland requires 10 days quarantine for all flights.

And what stops anyone flying into Newcastle airport and then travelling to Scotland by train or car?


Ah yes, the old "if it isn't 100% perfect, we shouldn't do it at all" argument....


I'd be very surprised if the instructions for what to do when travelling via England we're readily available at say https://www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-international-travel-quarantine/

obviously you'll get miscreants that will try and flout whatever is done :(
- and you'll also get poor sods incapable of understanding the practicality and prudence of any quarantine :roll:
- best just to get on with it and ignore them

- sd

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Re: India variant

#405539

Postby 1nvest » April 20th, 2021, 9:57 am

Mike4 wrote:Well the result for us so far has been one of the highest death rates per million of population in the world. What was it Einstein said about doing the same thing over again and expecting different results?

ONS wont produce figures for 2020 until perhaps June or later however Statista indicate 695,812 UK deaths in 2020. The baby boom of the 1946 - 1964 would have those surviving to recent being in their 60's to mid 70's and as such the average number of deaths each year might reasonably be expected to rise over the next decade+

68 million population, 82 year life expectancy and a simple average of 68M / 82 = 830,000 deaths/year.

Much depends upon how Covid deaths are being counted. The UK policy seems to have been to count all death certificates containing the word Covid. Given that you can't even get a GP to see you as much of the NHS is idle, in a number of cases of deaths at home perhaps the wording might be a remotely issued certificate saying "Due to Covid lockdown I haven't inspected the body" along with the time and date of certification - and the search/trawl of certificates counting that as a Covid death.

In 1976 the year of a heat wave the number of UK deaths was similar to 2020, whilst the population was around 50 million, proportioned to the present population size and that's 925,000 deaths.

Perhaps Einstein would look to why the UK death rate was relatively low.

Has the NHS been overwhelmed? No, they didn't even use (in any meaningful way) the Nightingale centres. Much of the NHS is idle, but a very small proportion, those working in intensive care are overloaded. Good management might have had the idle part being redeployed to assist the overloaded but largely that hasn't occurred (poor management).

Has there been a lockdown/quarantine? No. Only in name. Many had no option other than to continue working as financial assistance has been very selective.

Billions upon billions of contracts, public money, have been awarded to mates, often on the pretence of a Covid related product/service provision but where often the facade is a hole riddled bucket. FCA workers have to pretty much sell all of their investments so as to detach themselves, MP's don't and often exploit such corruption to the maximum as is all too clearly evident (Johnson and Cameron for instance).

What is the risk to the average person from Covid? Minuscule, a small fractional percent. Is that risk worth having 68 million wasted life-years? In effect withdrawal of all regular life socialisation/activities - the action of which has also induced massive problems and even deaths.

The repetition madness is more a case of repeatedly permitting a bunch of 650 MP's who opine themselves to be kings/queens and their 800+ unelected lifetime Lords being permitted by the population to persist in their highly corrupt and self interest activities. Westminster gifted Sovereignty away, didn't want it back, however the people demanded and were awarded sovereignty by the EU, but the people have yet to appoint a official representation of their sovereignty. In the meantime Westminster continues to do its self interest thing.

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Re: India variant

#405540

Postby Bubblesofearth » April 20th, 2021, 9:57 am

GoSeigen wrote:
dealtn wrote:India added to Red List

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103


Does that complete the list of brown-skinned Commonwealth countries that are banned from travel to the UK? Or are there still exceptions?

GS


Malaysia
Papua New Guines
Sri Lanka
Nigeria
Ghana
Sierra Leone
Cameroon
Uganda
Bhamas
Jamaica
Grenada
Cyprus (certainly well tanned if that's included in your 'brown skin'?)

https://thecommonwealth.org/member-countries
https://www.gov.uk/guidance/transport-m ... f-covid-19

BoE

Lanark
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Re: India variant

#405544

Postby Lanark » April 20th, 2021, 10:01 am

GoSeigen wrote:
dealtn wrote:India added to Red List

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-56806103


Does that complete the list of brown-skinned Commonwealth countries that are banned from travel to the UK? Or are there still exceptions?


This goes back to the vitamin D thing, having dark skin makes you statistically more likely to die from covid but doesn’t make you any more or less likely to pass it on to other people.

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Re: India variant

#405545

Postby murraypaul » April 20th, 2021, 10:02 am

1nvest wrote:Much depends upon how Covid deaths are being counted. The UK policy seems to have been to count all death certificates containing the word Covid. Given that you can't even get a GP to see you as much of the NHS is idle, in a number of cases of deaths at home perhaps the wording might be a remotely issued certificate saying "Due to Covid lockdown I haven't inspected the body" along with the time and date of certification - and the search/trawl of certificates counting that as a Covid death.


No.
The larger figure is for deaths where covid was listed as a contributing cause.
Not where literally the word covid appears somewhere.

Has the NHS been overwhelmed? No, they didn't even use (in any meaningful way) the Nightingale centres. Much of the NHS is idle, but a very small proportion, those working in intensive care are overloaded. Good management might have had the idle part being redeployed to assist the overloaded but largely that hasn't occurred (poor management).


Yes it did.
Non covid patients were transferred to private hospitals so their wards could be converted to intensive care wards.
In areas with multiple hospitals close by, some were designated as covid-only, and other patients moved out.

tjh290633
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Re: India variant

#405560

Postby tjh290633 » April 20th, 2021, 10:36 am

1nvest wrote:Billions upon billions of contracts, public money, have been awarded to mates, often on the pretence of a Covid related product/service provision but where often the facade is a hole riddled bucket. FCA workers have to pretty much sell all of their investments so as to detach themselves, MP's don't and often exploit such corruption to the maximum as is all too clearly evident (Johnson and Cameron for instance).

That could be a little libellous, but it is worth pointing out that Ministers have to put any investments out of their control while they are in office. MPs are not so affected, but have to declare interests in organisations, including monies received.

Just be cautious.

TJH

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Re: India variant

#405568

Postby 1nvest » April 20th, 2021, 11:16 am

tjh290633 wrote:worth pointing out that Ministers have to put any investments out of their control while they are in office. MPs are not so affected, but have to declare interests in organisations, including monies received.

It's only natural that given opportunities that they'll be taken. Human nature. People will find natural ways to disguise things where otherwise it might be embarrassing to be seen to be in so privileged a position. Use other family members, friends, indirect means ...etc. The wrong doing is not in the individuals but the circumstances/rules that permit temptation or actual participation.

A Minister being obligated to put investments out of their control is no different as that might be a trivial thing. A friend who controls their money/investment during the time, but where the Minister still maximises their best interests/investment rewards, such that when they do resume self control over their investments they benefited.

Fundamentally inside trading is rarely actually punished in all walks, beit within a financial body/entity or in Westminster ...etc. A Local public park to us that was gifted decades ago to the 'people' (local residents) had planning approval granted to part to be privatised. Turned out that the controller was both the primary "friends of the park" leader and worked within the council granting the planning permission. No prosecution - in effect 'legal' theft. Such legal thefts are commonplace and often massively steal from the public purse one way or another. And will continue to do so until such times that actual prosecutions and imprisoning occurs on a far greater frequency and high level. As should fines be proportionate, based on fractions/multiples of individuals wealth/monies.

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Re: India variant

#405575

Postby dealtn » April 20th, 2021, 11:40 am

Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:
Lanark wrote:So yet again the government are doing too little too late, they arent going to "RED list" them until Friday, why Friday and not today? why not back in early March when the numbers were obviously rising? And why the "RED list" instead of just closing arrivals completely?

I can only speculate on the answers to your question but would guess that:

1) Some notice has to be given to cater for those en route, and to allow people to change plans, cancel arrangements and schedule alternative itineraries.

2) "Red" is realistically as far as the UK can go for any given country, given that people can continue to fly between the two nations via third countries and we would never know. Particularly bearing in mind that there is no legal basis for denying entry to the UK for UK passport holders and visa holders.



I don't see why the airports cannot be closed at the drop of a hat. That would fix it.

After all we seem able to do it with our pubs.


They can be. That would fix "it".

It would also create other problems for the country. Then you would need to, at some point, fix "that" too.

If your sole aim was to minimise the direct effects of Covid, and the resulting deaths, that might be the way to go. But the Government doesn't (rightly) have that as its sole aim, just a big part of its aims. So compromises, and practicalities are taken into account. That won't please some, of course, and particularly the ones that have a very narrow focus only on Covid.

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Re: India variant

#405589

Postby Lootman » April 20th, 2021, 1:35 pm

servodude wrote:
Mike4 wrote:
Lootman wrote:And what stops anyone flying into Newcastle airport and then travelling to Scotland by train or car?

Ah yes, the old "if it isn't 100% perfect, we shouldn't do it at all" argument....

obviously you'll get miscreants that will try and flout whatever is done :(
- and you'll also get poor sods incapable of understanding the practicality and prudence of any quarantine :roll:
- best just to get on with it and ignore them

Well personally I wish the government would "ignore" me. But it is such an easy and obvious end-run around the rules that it undermines the effort. Maybe not many Scots will do that, but it will inevitably be the ones who have been to the riskiest countries and/or who are the most opposed to quarantine.

Maybe not so practical for those in the north of Scotland, but the main Scottish population centres are only 2/3 hours from Newcastle (or Manchester) airport. In fact I suspect that many might prefer to self-quarantine in Berwick-upon-tweed or Carlisle than suffer a forced quarantine in a crappy hotel in Paisley or Ingliston.

But perhaps the real folly is Scotland, Wales and England all having different rules whilst having similar Covid stats and retaining open borders with each other. You can take devolution too far sometimes.

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Re: India variant

#406006

Postby servodude » April 22nd, 2021, 3:51 am

https://nypost.com/2021/04/20/dozens-of-passengers-test-positive-for-covid-on-flight-from-india/

Dozens of passengers test positive for COVID on flight from India to Hong Kong

At least 53 passengers on an Indian airline flight from Delhi to Hong Kong this month reportedly tested positive for COVID-19 – after everyone aboard had tested negative within 72 hours prior to departure.

The Vistara airline plane — which landed in Hong Kong on April 4 — can hold 188 passengers, but officials in the territory did not announce Tuesday how many were aboard the buggy flight, Agence France-Presse reported.


that's an impressive hit rate!

looks on initial figures that the India variant is managing to outcompete the UK variant
- how it works against the present gen vaccines will be interesting to see

- sd

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Re: India variant

#406020

Postby Dod101 » April 22nd, 2021, 8:06 am

Lootman wrote:
But perhaps the real folly is Scotland, Wales and England all having different rules whilst having similar Covid stats and retaining open borders with each other. You can take devolution too far sometimes.


Ignoring the question of whether a quarantine hotel would be any better in Berwick upon Tweed than one at Ingliston, on matters of international travel there is no doubt in my mind that the whole of the UK should have the same regulations because so long as we have open borders between the constituent parts of the UK, there is bound to be a temptation to circumvent or try to take advantage of the different rules.

And I agree with dealtn. The whole management of the Covid situation has been an (Inevitably) unsatisfactory compromise between trying to keep Covid under control and simply shutting down the entire economy/country. We seem to have reached the position in this country where we can almost live with Covid whilst opening up the economy, but I guess the test of that will come in the next few weeks as the economy is opening up and people are inter mingling once again. I think one positive of it is that I suspect that there has been a fair amount of intermingling going on behind the scenes anyway. The warmer weather and more outdoor living will also be helping.

Dod

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Re: India variant

#407521

Postby servodude » April 28th, 2021, 2:30 am

I noticed that the CDC are suggesting vaccination might not protect against the Indian variants

Because of the current situation in India even fully vaccinated travelers may be at risk for getting and spreading COVID-19 variants and should avoid all travel to India.

- they're normally quite gung-ho about how effective vaccination is so this might just represent a shift in risk mitigation

The only info wrt effectiveness of the vaccines (PFZ) I've seen so far has been the stuff from Israel (which is a bit vague)

"The impression is that the Pfizer vaccine has efficacy against it, albeit a reduced efficacy," the ministry's director-general, Hezi Levy, told Kan public radio

There are reports of the age profile of Indian covid patients shifting lower - which could suggest that there's some benefit from the vaccinations they have done
- or it might be a feature of the variants?

- sd

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Re: India variant

#407526

Postby Itsallaguess » April 28th, 2021, 6:14 am

servodude wrote:
There are reports of the age profile of Indian covid patients shifting lower - which could suggest that there's some benefit from the vaccinations they have done - or it might be a feature of the variants?


Like many of us here, I've kept an interested eye on the brilliant 'WorldoMeter' country-level data available via this link -

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

When browsing through the top 15 or so countries in that list, and generally comparing their long-term 'Daily New Cases' charts, what strikes me is that if India hadn't had this second, much more powerful wave of COVID infections that they're currently experiencing, then that in itself would have felt like a huge outlier when viewed against the much more common 'multi-wave' trends of almost every other country towards the top of that list, and especially so given the fluid economic and social pressures at play within a country like India, with conditions that we might look upon as a perfect-storm for this type of disease in many ways....

Ignoring, for now, the issues around the actual variant of concern raging through India at this time, isn't there a general social and economic 'pattern' to these multi-wave impacts that means India was always going to experience the type of larger 'secondary-wave' that almost every other major country has also experienced, as seen from the above link?

Given the above, instead of us asking 'Why is this happening in India?', I'd almost be more interested in someone trying to convince me why it shouldn't be, given the above 'multi-wave' global comparisons....

As an aside, it's also interesting to see the first signs of what might be a slight tail-off in the India curves, even though the current numbers are still of a quite devastating size, so it'll be interesting to see if that 'peaking' trend continues over the coming days, or if the rumours of reported-numbers being at odds with facts on the grounds turn out to be a sign of further trouble ahead...

Cheers,

Itsallaguess

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Re: India variant

#407530

Postby servodude » April 28th, 2021, 7:12 am

Itsallaguess wrote:isn't there a general social and economic 'pattern' to these multi-wave impacts that means India was always going to experience the type of larger 'secondary-wave' that almost every other major country has also experienced, as seen from the above link?

Given the above, instead of us asking 'Why is this happening in India?', I'd almost be more interested in someone trying to convince me why it shouldn't be, given the above 'multi-wave' global comparisons....


Agreed! Though I'd say "very likely" rather than "always"

The general pattern could be described as "complacency when there aren't sufficient guards/policies in place" ? - that would match with just about everywhere on the list

There are a few things in the "shouldn't be" column that are interesting:
- antibody testing after the last wave suggested a good degree of immunity in places that are again being hit hard
- it's spring heading in to summer - and there's a persistent belief that this should have ameliorated the spread

Here's a take in Nature:
India’s massive COVID surge puzzles scientists
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01059-y

Which really just suggests there's some assumptions about this virus that need continual review - and still quite a bit to find out

- sd


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