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Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
XFool
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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#444987

Postby XFool » September 24th, 2021, 11:06 am

‘It’s awful. It’s exhausting’: Alaska rations care as it hits Covid nadir

The Guardian

The state has the highest rate of Covid in America, leaving hospitals overwhelmed and health workers burned out

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445015

Postby XFool » September 24th, 2021, 12:46 pm

‘We haven’t finished the job’: JVT reflects on 18 months of Covid

The Guardian

Exclusive: Listen to the experts, says deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, not the celebrities

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445052

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 24th, 2021, 2:23 pm

XFool wrote:‘We haven’t finished the job’: JVT reflects on 18 months of Covid

The Guardian

Exclusive: Listen to the experts, says deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, not the celebrities


From the article, JVT says: "That’s my biggest concern, that people just relax and think this is [it], show’s over. Sorted. And I’m not sure where it is yet. It’d be lovely if it is, [if] it just continues to kind of glide along in a nice way. But I’m still cautious that there are more twists and turns with this virus".

But I'm struggling to see what the point is in NOT relaxing, at a time when things are 'glid[ing] along in a nice way'. As someone who's doubly vaccinated I'm either immune to the virus - so can happily relax whatever - or I'm not, in which case if I don't get it now I very probably will in the future. So why not get it now - or at least risk getting it - when the health system is not overloaded and when, by definition, I'm younger than I will be in the future, and therefore less at risk of being severely affected?

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445111

Postby XFool » September 24th, 2021, 5:32 pm

nicodemusboffin wrote:
XFool wrote:‘We haven’t finished the job’: JVT reflects on 18 months of Covid

The Guardian

Exclusive: Listen to the experts, says deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, not the celebrities

From the article, JVT says: "That’s my biggest concern, that people just relax and think this is [it], show’s over. Sorted. And I’m not sure where it is yet. It’d be lovely if it is, [if] it just continues to kind of glide along in a nice way. But I’m still cautious that there are more twists and turns with this virus".

But I'm struggling to see what the point is in NOT relaxing, at a time when things are 'glid[ing] along in a nice way'. As someone who's doubly vaccinated I'm either immune to the virus - so can happily relax whatever - or I'm not, in which case if I don't get it now I very probably will in the future. So why not get it now - or at least risk getting it - when the health system is not overloaded...

Covid: Cancer backlog could take a decade to clear

BBC News

It could take more than a decade to clear the cancer-treatment backlog in England, a report suggests.


Covid: Can England avoid 'lockdown lite' this winter?

BBC News

The government's approach in England is clear - it's going to try to rely almost entirely on the vaccines to protect the country from Covid this winter.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445126

Postby 9873210 » September 24th, 2021, 6:42 pm

nicodemusboffin wrote:But I'm struggling to see what the point is in NOT relaxing, at a time when things are 'glid[ing] along in a nice way'. As someone who's doubly vaccinated I'm either immune to the virus - so can happily relax whatever - or I'm not, in which case if I don't get it now I very probably will in the future. So why not get it now - or at least risk getting it - when the health system is not overloaded and when, by definition, I'm younger than I will be in the future, and therefore less at risk of being severely affected?


Treatment of Covid and management of symptoms continues to improve. It is likely that the case fatality rates (and misery for less severe cases) will be quite a bit lower in a year than they are now. As just one example you might want to wait until remdesivir is generally available.

This is related to the argument some people are making that Australia has gained nothing by isolating for over s year. What they have gained (compared to the UK) is facing May 2020 levels of Covid with June 2021 levels of vaccination. If that does not save tens of thousands of lives it would be pretty convincing evidence that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised, and that the introduction of vaccines cannot explain the course of the pandemic in the UK.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445148

Postby XFool » September 24th, 2021, 8:42 pm

NHS ‘on the edge’ with some patients waiting 48 hours for a bed

The Guardian

Exclusive: record number of A&Es having to turn away ambulances daily amid unprecedented demand

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445164

Postby XFool » September 24th, 2021, 11:01 pm

‘A bit of a mystery’: why England Covid cases are going down despite easing of restrictions

The Guardian

Analysis: Experts say it is first time since start of pandemic that sustained decline is recorded out of lockdown

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445186

Postby AWOL » September 25th, 2021, 8:54 am

9873210 wrote:
This is related to the argument some people are making that Australia has gained nothing by isolating for over s year. What they have gained (compared to the UK) is facing May 2020 levels of Covid with June 2021 levels of vaccination. If that does not save tens of thousands of lives it would be pretty convincing evidence that the vaccines are not as effective as advertised, and that the introduction of vaccines cannot explain the course of the pandemic in the UK.


Except the data are pretty clear. Here's the data from NHS Scotland:

Image

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445187

Postby AWOL » September 25th, 2021, 8:57 am

Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445197

Postby servodude » September 25th, 2021, 9:28 am

AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!


Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445227

Postby redsturgeon » September 25th, 2021, 11:30 am

AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!


Moderator Message:
I think we can allow the occasional histogram to clarify a point

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445234

Postby redsturgeon » September 25th, 2021, 11:42 am

servodude wrote:
AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!


Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd


My understanding is that the graphs show that vaccination works, therefore Australia will have avoided thousands of deaths and hospitalisations by keeping cases down while getting vaccinations up. So anyone who argues that Oz and NZ have been wasting their time in isolating their countries is mistaken.

John

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445236

Postby servodude » September 25th, 2021, 11:51 am

redsturgeon wrote:
servodude wrote:
AWOL wrote:Oops sorry, I had forgotten this is a data free zone!


Could you take it to the appropriate thread and explain what you meant with your graphs w.r.t. the quote you included?
I'm not sure what you meant and I'm intrigued to understand.
-sd


My understanding is that the graphs show that vaccination works, therefore Australia will have avoided thousands of deaths and hospitalisations by keeping cases down while getting vaccinations up. So anyone who argues that Oz and NZ have been wasting their time in isolating their countries is mistaken.

John


That's what I took it took mean. I was just confused a bit by the word "except" in the text before the graphs... but it wasn't clear to what that was referring

-sd

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445273

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 25th, 2021, 2:40 pm

XFool wrote:
nicodemusboffin wrote:
XFool wrote:‘We haven’t finished the job’: JVT reflects on 18 months of Covid

The Guardian

Exclusive: Listen to the experts, says deputy chief medical officer Jonathan Van-Tam, not the celebrities

From the article, JVT says: "That’s my biggest concern, that people just relax and think this is [it], show’s over. Sorted. And I’m not sure where it is yet. It’d be lovely if it is, [if] it just continues to kind of glide along in a nice way. But I’m still cautious that there are more twists and turns with this virus".

But I'm struggling to see what the point is in NOT relaxing, at a time when things are 'glid[ing] along in a nice way'. As someone who's doubly vaccinated I'm either immune to the virus - so can happily relax whatever - or I'm not, in which case if I don't get it now I very probably will in the future. So why not get it now - or at least risk getting it - when the health system is not overloaded...

Covid: Cancer backlog could take a decade to clear

BBC News

It could take more than a decade to clear the cancer-treatment backlog in England, a report suggests.


Covid: Can England avoid 'lockdown lite' this winter?

BBC News

The government's approach in England is clear - it's going to try to rely almost entirely on the vaccines to protect the country from Covid this winter.


Well I'm not waiting ten years to go to the pub! If hospitalisations do rise significantly this winter then I'll stay in, but for now, whilst they are actually falling in England, I think the rational thing is to socialise as much as I want to.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445292

Postby AWOL » September 25th, 2021, 4:13 pm

Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#445295

Postby nicodemusboffin » September 25th, 2021, 4:36 pm

AWOL wrote:Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.


Agreed.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446220

Postby XFool » September 29th, 2021, 10:51 am

Today, received email from .gov offering me ("People of your age...") booster vaccine appointment. Just a few minutes ago received Text from GP surgery to make appointment via weblink for COVID booster vaccine.

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446223

Postby pje16 » September 29th, 2021, 10:55 am

XFool wrote:("People of your age...")

What a delightful term
bet that gave you a morale boost :roll:

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446225

Postby Julian » September 29th, 2021, 10:58 am

AWOL wrote:Personally I think the rational things to do are to get vaccinated, wear face masks at the shops and in transport, ventilate rooms when mixing, wash hands, and while case numbers are reasonable socialise. For me that includes meeting at pubs and restaurants.

For most people doing the low "cost" mitigations, mixed with living life is optimal. We cannot spend years without seeing people and having fun, that is not living but likewise we should do what we can to protect ourselves, others and the NHS.

That's the way it looks to me. I am not judging anyone else or their circumstances. For example I have relatives undergoing radiotherapy. Isolating to the maximum makes sense for them.


That's 100% exactly how I'm living my life at the moment. My only point of uncertainty is with the bit I bolded, in particular how do I judge the point at which case numbers can no longer be considered "reasonable" and have reached the point where I should revise my attitude to socialising in some way?

I don't have the virology knowledge to know at what point case numbers (or perhaps more likely growth rates as a leading indicator of numbers soon to be encountered) become high enough to become concerning e.g. with regard to increasing the chances of new mutations occuring to a point where that becomes a real danger. Similarly I don't have the detailed analysis to know at any given time whether the vaccination program has sufficiently weakened the link between cases and hospitalisations and deaths such that a particular case number profile is of no real concern. On the latter, as is often mentioned here and a view I subscribe to, the more critical numbers are the hospitalisations, mechanical ventilation bed occupancy and death numbers but again in terms of detecting a "this is getting worrying" signal I do not have the background about just when the NHS is in danger of overload serious enough to warrant me adjusting my behaviour.

On that "reasonable" threshold in the bolded text I'm left where I have been quite a few times during this pandemic, needing to rely on others' advice. I suspect that if case growth and/or absolute case numbers get to the level where concern is warranted we will probably go through the same cycle as we have seen before. A few experts will start sounding cautionary notes that get relatively little attention. Those cautionary noises with then escalate to a much more significant number of experts sounding much louder alarm bells to the extent that they get fairly extensive mainstream media coverage (e.g. the "we should lock down now" calls in the runup to the late 2019 pre Christmas wave) and if lessons have not been learned the government finally following the expert advice somewhat later than was being called for.

I really hope none of that last paragraph ever becomes a reality. With all of the UK numbers (cases all the way through to deaths) remaining relatively stable and showing no signs that I can detect of taking off yet and the possibility of the booster program and more young people vaccinated potentially giving further positive effects in terms of reducing transmission and further weakening the link between cases and deaths my lay-person's disposition at the moment is to be fairly optimistic and I'm not expecting to have to make any changes to how I socialise at the moment, i.e. not stop or curtail my regular visits to pubs and restaurants and even quite a lot of live music recently but I suppose the run-up from now until Christmas will be the final (I hope) test at least in the UK.

- Julian

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Re: Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

#446236

Postby servodude » September 29th, 2021, 11:25 am

Julian wrote: in particular how do I judge the point at which case numbers can no longer be considered "reasonable" and have reached the point where I should revise my attitude to socialising in some way?


OK here's a personal perspective

Right now I think if you've been vaccinated you should be socialising for "exposure" and I don't think "case" numbers matter on a personal level
- those days are gone ( ...and in the past they shall remain ;) )
- I reckon it is not a "novel" virus to you/us and you want to exercise your immune system to keep it working (can you imagine how bad everyone's next cold will be?! it'll be a man-flu pandemic)

COVID isn't the flu but if the vaccine efficiency holds up as it appears to, with covid becoming endemic, and with a critical mass of vaccinated people, it's added an equivalent to the flu load on the health system
- on a national/large scale we know that restrictions (NPI) work to restrict spread
- but reintroducing measures will only really make sense if there's unsustainable growth in the use of medical resources (or it looks like there is) - that's not "cases' and I think you'll see a move to much less testing (eventually to it being on a par with checking for your cough being flu)

The health system will eventually expand to cope
- right now though we're in the ringing phase of a step response and trying to stop the oscillations in demand from saturating

- sd


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