Julian wrote: in particular how do I judge the point at which case numbers can no longer be considered "reasonable" and have reached the point where I should revise my attitude to socialising in some way?
OK here's a personal perspective
Right now I think if you've been vaccinated you should be socialising for "exposure" and I don't think "case" numbers matter on a personal level
- those days are gone ( ...and in the past they shall remain
)
- I reckon it is not a "novel" virus to you/us and you want to exercise your immune system to keep it working (can you imagine how bad everyone's next cold will be?! it'll be a man-flu pandemic)
COVID isn't the flu but if the vaccine efficiency holds up as it appears to, with covid becoming endemic, and with a critical mass of vaccinated people, it's added an equivalent to the flu load on the health system
- on a national/large scale we know that restrictions (NPI) work to restrict spread
- but reintroducing measures will only really make sense if there's unsustainable growth in the use of medical resources (or it looks like there is) - that's not "cases' and I think you'll see a move to much less testing (eventually to it being on a par with checking for your cough being flu)
The health system will eventually expand to cope
- right now though we're in the ringing phase of a step response and trying to stop the oscillations in demand from saturating
- sd