Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[Mike4]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)

Of course many are saying they're already responding too late.

The Health Minister on Radio 4 this morning refused to deny that chief scientist Patrick Vallance advised triggering "Plan B" now.

Meanwhile they advise wearing masks in crowded places, while setting the worst example in the house of commons.

Scott.

And Emma Barnett on Woman's Hour just now, made absolute mincemeat of an MP guest on the programme on that exact point. She is wasted on Woman's Hour, should be presenting World at One!

[pje16]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)

Of course many are saying they're already responding too late.
Scott.

Good point Scott
My post should have said that

[Mike4]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)

Of course many are saying they're already responding too late.

But they are not responding at all, surely?

"Wait and see" appears to be the policy AFAICS, yet again.

[pje16]

[quote="Mike4"
"Wait and see" appears to be the policy AFAICS, yet again.[/quote]
Sadly yes, they don't seem to learn from their mistakes, or pay attention to the inquiry

[nicodemusboffin]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)

Of course many are saying they're already responding too late.

But they are not responding at all, surely?

"Wait and see" appears to be the policy AFAICS, yet again.

As per 1nvest's recent post, I think the policy is to build up natural immunity now, before the onset of winter pressures - and fwiw I agree with that approach. I know it's anecdotal, but both my teenage sons and the majority of their friendship groups have now had covid*. I think it's very likely that the virus will soon run out of enough hosts to infect to continue to grow and doubt that we will ever reach a figure of >100,000 positive PCR cases per day. Foolishly, perhaps, I predict that by Christmas cases will be below 20,000 a day, probably significantly below. We'll see.

*And the number of people actually being infected per day in recent weeks is probably over 100,000 - a figure that is consistent with the ONS covid prevalence figures and with the PHE estimate of an IFR of 0.096% - see: https://questions-statements.parliament ... 7-12/31381

[Julian]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)

Of course many are saying they're already responding too late.

The Health Minister on Radio 4 this morning refused to deny that chief scientist Patrick Vallance advised triggering "Plan B" now.

Meanwhile they advise wearing masks in crowded places, while setting the worst example in the house of commons.

Scott.

And Emma Barnett on Woman's Hour just now, made absolute mincemeat of an MP guest on the programme on that exact point. She is wasted on Woman's Hour, should be presenting World at One!

Although Emily Maitlis and Kirsty Wark seem to occupy most of the nightly anchor slots Emma Barnett does do reasonably regular anchor slots on BBC2's Newsnight, just in case you didn't know and wanted to see her in a different setting. Then again I haven't been able to work out any pattern of who is doing anchor on any given day so it is pretty much pot luck as to who you get.

I didn't hear the Woman's Hour interview but when it gets too close to the Jeremy Paxman "attack dog" style of interviewing I find that uncomfortable and pointless, at least in interviews with very senior politicians because politicians at that level of seniority have sufficient media training to be able to put up an impregnable shield by simply riding out the attack by refusing to go off message (I have been through quite a lot of that sort of media training myself for times when I was a company spokesman at a few points in my career). Perhaps that MP on Woman's Hour was less media savvy and Emma Barnett was able to land some effective blows. For the high profile Newsnight interviews I personally found Evan Davis's more "softly, softly, catchee monkey" interview style, backed up by his apparent (or so it seemed to me) intelligence, and his economics background, a breath of fresh air after Paxman's more brute-force interviewing style.

- Julian

[dealtn]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658

UK Gov should be paying attention anyway, regardless. They might respond too late. They might not need to respond at all. They might need to consider whether Plan A, and adherence to it, is enough, and consider why some individuals appear to be ignoring it and what might be done, if anything, about that.

[pje16]

My positive blood antibodies turned negative after 4 months, I know there is more to it than that, but it doesn't instil confidence !

how strange just had the 5 month result and it now says positive for antibodies, again

Is it likely that the blood antobdoies change from positive to negative and back to positive, or is the testing at fault
Is anyone on here a doctor

thank you
Paul

[Lootman]

UK Gov needs to pay attention or else they will respond too late (AGAIN)
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58990658

UK Gov should be paying attention anyway, regardless. They might respond too late. They might not need to respond at all. They might need to consider whether Plan A, and adherence to it, is enough, and consider why some individuals appear to be ignoring it and what might be done, if anything, about that.

The government also needs to understand how the public feel about any further responses. There is a growing sense that a certain level of infections, illnesses and deaths is acceptable, and an unwillingness to go back to lockdowns etc. Restrictions are useless if people won't follow them.

I suspect there would be more support for continuous vaccinations, as with flu, rather than shutting stuff down again - there is no appetite for that. People are willing to live with Covid and its 2 in 1,000 death rate.

[Hallucigenia]

Is it likely that the blood antobdoies change from positive to negative and back to positive, or is the testing at fault
Is anyone on here a doctor

Not a medical doctor, but I have been involved with both running similar tests and their R&D.

Given the current high levels of virus circulating in the population, particularly if you've been exposed to kids, it's quite possible that you've been exposed to a mild dose of virus that's been enough to stimulate the production of new antibodies without making you ill.

And the antibody tests are not perfect - in particular this (far from perfect) study found that the tests made by Abbott had 12.5% false negatives after 40 days.

So it's certainly possible you had a false negative.

The only antibody test I had for SARS2 was negative although I'm near-certain I had Covid-19 before lockdown1, but the test was nearly 9 months afterwards so I wasn't completely surprised.

[Hallucigenia]

People are willing to live with Covid and its 2 in 1,000 death rate.

It's not just about the deaths. It's about not overloading the health system so that it can provide functional care for other high-risk patients, we're already at a higher level of patients on ventilation than at the same time last year. Covid is incredibly disruptive to ICUs - Covid patients need far longer in ICU (more like 3 weeks) than the typical 24-48 hours after major surgery, and infection control causes further disruption and reductions in capacity. So the effect is much greater than a headline of "20% of intensive care beds are occupied by Covid patients" would suggest, although that's clearly not good in itself.

And it ignores the 10-20% of cases that lead to long Covid. For a bad example, see this guy :
https://twitter.com/maosbot/status/1450465063056420874

And there's a lot we can do without causing great disruption. Right now it's primarily a disease that is rampant in teenagers, some of whom give it to their families. Vaccinating teenagers, masking teachers, ventilating and filtering the air in school rooms would go a long way to knocking this on the head at relatively little cost or disruption to the general public. Portable HEPA filtration in schools would cost around £10-20 per child.

[Lootman]

People are willing to live with Covid and its 2 in 1,000 death rate.

there's a lot we can do without causing great disruption. Right now it's primarily a disease that is rampant in teenagers, some of whom give it to their families. Vaccinating teenagers, masking teachers, ventilating and filtering the air in school rooms would go a long way to knocking this on the head at relatively little cost or disruption to the general public. Portable HEPA filtration in schools would cost around £10-20 per child.

Yes, I am fine with all that. I just think that vaccinated adults would not respond well to any new restrictions on their activities.

Next month I have four flights and about 20 hotels booked, so you can imagine what my response would be to any risk to that. I will be overseas for most of the month and actually feel more comfortable abroad than in the UK because many other countries require proof of vaccination to take flights, enter hotels and restaurants, and so on.

I would fully support entry to places in the UK to be dependent on proof of vaccination. I am triple vaxxed and would be happy to have a 4th shot next year. All to keep everything open.

[XFool]

thanks for all that gave me support.
i didn't delete my post.
I am not agaist vacines, my first was a pfizer in august.

Good to hear! When do you expect to get the second one?

I am against the compulsory vacine. The most brazilians received the coronavac, it seems that vacine is a bad deal.
Yesterday i was a bit fearful. Later i remenber that i have a pulse oximeter. Then i use it and became more calm. The ox. level was 99 and was 100 today morning.

Good. Hope you stay calm and well.

about invermectine, people of the umiversity of west virginia in USA recommend it for use in hospital, but in big dosis.
the nac (n acetil cisteine) is recognized as a remedy against flu, but some guys want to crucify they who use it for covid.

I don't know what the University of Virginia say. But likely best to leave hospital medication to doctors if possible, rather than self medicate.

[pje16]

Is it likely that the blood antobdoies change from positive to negative and back to positive, or is the testing at fault
Is anyone on here a doctor

Not a medical doctor, but I have been involved with both running similar tests and their R&D.

Given the current high levels of virus circulating in the population, particularly if you've been exposed to kids, it's quite possible that you've been exposed to a mild dose of virus that's been enough to stimulate the production of new antibodies without making you ill.

And the antibody tests are not perfect - in particular this (far from perfect) study found that the tests made by Abbott had 12.5% false negatives after 40 days.

So it's certainly possible you had a false negative.

The only antibody test I had for SARS2 was negative although I'm near-certain I had Covid-19 before lockdown1, but the test was nearly 9 months afterwards so I wasn't completely surprised.

Thank you, that makes a lot of sense
not been exposed to kids
BUT was at a 2 day conference with almost 300 people in one room (well spaced out)
We jokingly called it a superspreader event, but AFAIK no-one at has Covid since the event
I was tested two days after the event, so perhaps I had a mild dose and the "army" kicked into action
Thanks once again
PS useful link !

[Bouleversee]

I know several famiies where the parents were double jabbed but the whole family got Covid after the kids w ent back to school. I know of several cases where unjabbed teenagers caught Covid, fairly mildly, and then caught it again when they went to Uni. I know one double jabbed teacher who caught it quite badly when school resumed and is still not 100% and has not recovered her sense of smell. Then there is my grandson who caught it when his antibodies should have been at optimum level according to the revised guidelines for the Pfizer jab, but more than 3 weeks after his first one as was their original stipulation.. I know of some people who possibly had underlying health conditions who were jabbed at the stipulated times but died after being infected with Covid. I also know many people who have had their jabs as invited but not relaxed as regards social distancing, ventilation and mask wearing and have managed so far not to get infected.

Why is so much emphasis being placed on vaccines and not enough on the latter measures which may have deserved at least as much credit for the reduction in infection and death? Doesn't the amount of viral load play a part in all this and isn't more education and commonsense required? Very dangerous i.m.o. to give people the impression that they can throw caution to the winds once vaccinated.

[jfgw]

And the antibody tests are not perfect - in particular this (far from perfect) study found that the tests made by Abbott had 12.5% false negatives after 40 days.

From the cited article,

Abbott had reported that its assays had a sensitivity of 100% (the true positive rate) 14 days after symptom onset.

Does that seem realistic for any test? (at least, for any test with a good specificity). Such a claim would certainly leave doubts in my mind.


Julian F. G. W.

[swill453]

Next month I have four flights and about 20 hotels booked, so you can imagine what my response would be to any risk to that.

Any tightening of the regulations would have the purpose of reducing infections in this country, so would more likely increase your chances of travel. The rapid, mostly uncontrolled, increase in infections here might lead to other countries placing restrictions on travellers from the UK.

Scott.

[Hallucigenia]

From the cited article,

Abbott had reported that its assays had a sensitivity of 100% (the true positive rate) 14 days after symptom onset.

Does that seem realistic for any test? (at least, for any test with a good specificity). Such a claim would certainly leave doubts in my mind.

It would certainly raise eyebrows - at the very least it suggests that it's just been tested on too small a population. And sure enough when you look at the original PHE report it's based on just 88 samples, apparently from fewer than that patients, as 1 inconvenient patient with 5 samples was rejected.

Fair enough, worse things happen in a pandemic (cough, Immensa) - which is why you trust in the short term but verify when you get a moment. Which is what happened here - PHE are doing their job.

But in general, these kinds of tests are generally pretty robust, albeit not perfect.

[vagrantbrain]

I was shown some data from PHE for the NW today showing the change in positive tests over the previous 28 days, every age group was virtually unchanged except the under 12s which has increased exponentially and still growing since schools went back. TBH i'm not sure what requiring a covid passport to go in a nightclub or emptying offices again will do to stop kids passing it round themselves at school.

[Lootman]

I was shown some data from PHE for the NW today showing the change in positive tests over the previous 28 days, every age group was virtually unchanged except the under 12s which has increased exponentially and still growing since schools went back. TBH i'm not sure what requiring a covid passport to go in a nightclub or emptying offices again will do to stop kids passing it round themselves at school.

Agreed so we should not impose new restrictions on people over the age of 12 and who have been vaccinated, whilst rolling out jabs for those under 12s.

That said I would feel more comfortable if I knew that everyone sharing an aircraft cabin or pub or restaurant or hotel with me had been vaccinated and had proven it, as is the case in various foreign countries.