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England to surpass Wales again

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Clariman
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462359

Postby Clariman » December 1st, 2021, 3:34 pm

Moderator Message:
I have deleted more than half a dozen posts by 2 posters having a go at each other. You know who you are. Please debate the points, rather than trying to score points. Please refrain from attacking other posters. If you feel you are being attacked in a post, then report it and don't respond, otherwise it simply escalates. Thanks. Clariman

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462360

Postby dealtn » December 1st, 2021, 3:43 pm

Clariman wrote:The resistance to masks by a significant proportion of people in England completely baffles me. And it is all whipped up by the media harping on about it.

I'm English but live in Scotland. The masks have been a legal requirement here all along - and there has never been any significant fuss about it. It is simply accepted that we need to protect each other and ourselves and that masks help do that. It is not a major imposition. No big deal. Just get on with it.

Genuinely baffled
Clariman


If the mask laws (or their adoption) have been significantly different across the home nations, can any effect of this difference (or differences) be seen in any case/hospitalisation/deaths data?

Are the differences in volume of these effects minimal compared to the noise that appears to be generated by the mask debate (and no doubt others)?

Genuine questions.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462363

Postby Clariman » December 1st, 2021, 3:51 pm

dealtn wrote:
Clariman wrote:The resistance to masks by a significant proportion of people in England completely baffles me. And it is all whipped up by the media harping on about it.

I'm English but live in Scotland. The masks have been a legal requirement here all along - and there has never been any significant fuss about it. It is simply accepted that we need to protect each other and ourselves and that masks help do that. It is not a major imposition. No big deal. Just get on with it.

Genuinely baffled
Clariman


If the mask laws (or their adoption) have been significantly different across the home nations, can any effect of this difference (or differences) be seen in any case/hospitalisation/deaths data?

Are the differences in volume of these effects minimal compared to the noise that appears to be generated by the mask debate (and no doubt others)?

Genuine questions.

Good question and I don't pretend I know the whole answer, but for the last couple of months I think cases in Scotland have been running at around 50% of those in England (a bit over 50%). Having just looked at the ONS data it seems far closer - 1 in 65 in England versus 1 in 70 in Scotland but that was for the week ending 20th November which was after the Scottish daily cases had risen for a few weeks.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... vember2021

They have been falling again since then in Scotland
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462367

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 1st, 2021, 4:20 pm

Clariman wrote:Good question and I don't pretend I know the whole answer, but for the last couple of months I think cases in Scotland have been running at around 50% of those in England (a bit over 50%). Having just looked at the ONS data it seems far closer - 1 in 65 in England versus 1 in 70 in Scotland but that was for the week ending 20th November which was after the Scottish daily cases had risen for a few weeks.
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulation ... vember2021

They have been falling again since then in Scotland
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-53511877


Fair point. Scotland is another comparison. I daresay NI too. I picked Wales 'cos I thought it the closest to "all other things being equal" with England, which may or may not be valid. Scotland has rather more that's devolved, like significantly different school and college regimes and holidays.

If - as one poster here keeps saying - we see a rise due to a new variant, that should be reflected equally in England and Wales, and indeed Scotland, NI, and other countries. Whether or not that happens is of course tangential to my conjecture and its outcome.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462371

Postby XFool » December 1st, 2021, 4:31 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:Fair point. Scotland is another comparison. I daresay NI too. I picked Wales 'cos I thought it the closest to "all other things being equal" with England, which may or may not be valid. Scotland has rather more that's devolved, like significantly different school and college regimes and holidays.

If - as one poster here keeps saying - we see a rise due to a new variant, that should be reflected equally in England and Wales, and indeed Scotland, NI, and other countries. Whether or not that happens is of course tangential to my conjecture and its outcome.

I remain unconvinced that it can be "tangential" to your conjecture. It is an assumption that: "a rise due to a new variant, [that] should be reflected equally in England and Wales" and remember, you are saying the situation in England and Wales is already different (for whatever reasons).

Again, even if your simple prediction comes true, although consistent with your conjecture, to my mind in the circumstances it couldn't convincingly prove it.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462375

Postby redsturgeon » December 1st, 2021, 4:42 pm

If you compare the different regions of England that all have the same covid rules then I would guess you would see more differences between those regions in numbers than you would between some English regions vs some Scottish or Welsh regions.

John

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462380

Postby Lootman » December 1st, 2021, 4:49 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:If - as one poster here keeps saying - we see a rise due to a new variant, that should be reflected equally in England and Wales, and indeed Scotland, NI, and other countries. Whether or not that happens is of course tangential to my conjecture and its outcome.

Exactly, and the fact that numbers are going up in both England and Wales, if that happens, does not invalidate any discrepancy between the rate at which the numbers go up in both countries. If the Wales numbers increase more sharply than in England AND the only major differentiator is a mask mandate in Wales and no mask mandate in England, then that is prima facie evidence to support the contention that masks might be making things worse.

Whereas if someone argues that does not hold up because other factors are also important or more important, then that still supports the thesis that masks may not be as helpful as is widely thought.

Two years ago nobody thought that wearing masks was something worth doing. In fact if you walked around town wearing one people would generally think you are a nutter. Now we have gone full on the other way, and nearly everyone believes that masks are important things to wear. Some even claim we will be wearing them forever. And yet when you ask most people why they believe that, it appears to be because most other people believe that. The term "Groupthink" was coined for that phenomenon, as I recall.

So, do masks make things better, worse or don't make much difference either way? I'd like to know for reasons other than "people keep saying that". I hope you update us with the numbers as they develop. And ignore those who seem just a little too keen to try and shoot the idea down without even considering it.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462386

Postby NotSure » December 1st, 2021, 5:01 pm

Lootman wrote:''''Two years ago nobody thought that wearing masks was something worth doing.....


Well, perhaps nobody outside of regions that had experienced, e.g. SARS?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462387

Postby Lootman » December 1st, 2021, 5:04 pm

NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:''''Two years ago nobody thought that wearing masks was something worth doing.....

Well, perhaps nobody outside of regions that had experienced, e.g. SARS?

Yes, I recall even back in the 1980s and 1990s, that some people in South-East Asia would wear masks in public. It seemed popular there even when it was unheard of in the West.

I had always attributed it to a generally higher rate of infectious diseases in that area, in turn caused by poverty and large numbers of people living and working in close proximity to each other. Even now it seems that most of these new bugs still come from either Asia or Africa.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462391

Postby swill453 » December 1st, 2021, 5:21 pm

Lootman wrote:I had always attributed it to a generally higher rate of infectious diseases in that area, in turn caused by poverty and large numbers of people living and working in close proximity to each other. Even now it seems that most of these new bugs still come from either Asia or Africa.

I always attributed it to an increased sense of politeness, where the mask wearer is making an effort to not spread any potential germs/infection/virus to other people.

Scott.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462393

Postby Lootman » December 1st, 2021, 5:37 pm

swill453 wrote:
Lootman wrote:I had always attributed it to a generally higher rate of infectious diseases in that area, in turn caused by poverty and large numbers of people living and working in close proximity to each other. Even now it seems that most of these new bugs still come from either Asia or Africa.

I always attributed it to an increased sense of politeness, where the mask wearer is making an effort to not spread any potential germs/infection/virus to other people.

Perhaps. Quite often I will put a face covering on not because I think it is necessary in the particular situation, but rather because I sense that other people might prefer that and/or else give me a stinkeye look if I don't.

Although of course a part of being polite is not complaining when other other people do not behave the way you want them to. And in 21 months of expected face-covering, I have only ever had two people ask me to put on a face covering. One of those times was in an airline lounge when I was eating so I really don't know what else I was supposed to do! The other time I was wearing one but it was only covering my mouth and not my nose.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462461

Postby servodude » December 1st, 2021, 11:14 pm

NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:''''Two years ago nobody thought that wearing masks was something worth doing.....


Well, perhaps nobody outside of regions that had experienced, e.g. SARS?


Or surgeons, or dentists, or "Restless Natives" ;)

Going back a bit further it appears the mask thing was quite the rage in the last big respiratory pandemic

If anyone wanted to they could look for:
- the "Spit Spreads Death" exhibition from Philadelphia (based on a poster that was around at the time)
- or the "Wear a mask or go to jail" initiative from San Francisco when they made masks really compulsory, enforced by prison and fines

and there's always been push back and fudging the "rules" and general whinging
Take this report:
https://www.historyextra.com/period/20th-century/wear-face-masks-backlash-opposition-why-spanish-flu-coronavirus-covid-history/
historyextra wrote:In early December 1918, two women were fined for violating the mask ordinance in Ogden, Utah. Rhoda Williams, a department store clerk, pleaded guilty “to the non-wearing of a mask while attending on customers”. Williams had asthma, so wearing a mask was “a miserable experience”, according to her physician. The judge expressed “human consideration” for her plight but fined her $10. Mrs Reynolds, a bakery employee, also pleaded guilty, but objected that these “rules are framed to hit those who have to work for their living the hardest”. Determining that Reynolds had “not willfully, but carelessly” forgotten the mask order, the judge fined her $5.

- change the dates and the amounts and it could have been set in the past year

In short masks only make sense in specific circumstances:
- protecting patients
- mixing with people during a respiratory pandemic
- smog
- robbing tour busses of grannies
outwith those why would anyone bother? (...unless you'd been invited to a party by Ghislaine Maxwell ?!)

- sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462463

Postby Lootman » December 1st, 2021, 11:18 pm

servodude wrote:
NotSure wrote:
Lootman wrote:''''Two years ago nobody thought that wearing masks was something worth doing.....

Well, perhaps nobody outside of regions that had experienced, e.g. SARS?

Or surgeons, or dentists

Funny you should say that because in all my decades the only places I ever saw people wearing masks prior to 2020 were:

1) In SE Asia where, either through prudence or paranoia, it was prevalent although still fairly uncommon, and

2) In the year I worked at a cardio-thoracic hospital in London, and even then only in the theatres and intensive care units. I watched a couple of post mortems and the pathologist didn't bother - presumably he figured he could not kill his patient on account of him or her already being dead. :D

PS: I have been to Ogden. Nice Mormon town.

PPS: I have worn masks in smoky, dusty or polluted air situations, but that is a very different scenario than what was being discussed here. For instance in that case only inhalations are the problem; not exhalations.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462466

Postby servodude » December 1st, 2021, 11:37 pm

Lootman wrote:
servodude wrote:
NotSure wrote:Well, perhaps nobody outside of regions that had experienced, e.g. SARS?

Or surgeons, or dentists

Funny you should say that because in all my decades the only places I ever saw people wearing masks prior to 2020 were:

1) In SE Asia where, either through prudence or paranoia, it was prevalent although still fairly uncommon, and

2) In the year I worked at a cardio-thoracic hospital in London, and even then only in the theatres and intensive care units. I watched a couple of post mortems and the pathologist didn't bother - presumably he figured he could not kill his patient on account of him or her already being dead. :D

PS: I have been to Ogden. Nice Mormon town.

PPS: I have worn masks in smoky or polluted air situations, but that s a very different scenario than what was being discussed here.


Utah's not really my cup of tea - on account of preferring to drink more than tea
I've a second cousin that joined the mormons and relocated there from Scotland
- guess the weather's better but the bible bothering would drive you to drink.. and at the time that involved paying at the door before you got near a bar (might be different these days)

Certainly think it's been "a thing" to cover one's face in SE Asia if you have a cold for some time, I remember being told that's why people were doing it when I first went and that's going on 20+ years now
Not sure how it started though or why it has been less prevalent elsewhere (till now anyway)

One strange thing I've noticed is that I've become more alert to them in movies released before Covid
- they were obviously there before... but now I can't see one without my brain going "Oh look they were wearing masks back then"

- sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462469

Postby XFool » December 1st, 2021, 11:48 pm

Lootman wrote:The really interesting thing about this topic is not the debate about the effectiveness of masks. But rather how a few here seem to feel genuinely threatened by a different idea. Uncle fired a cannon and the usual suspects immediately marched towards the fire, as if their very lives were under threat. Why does alternative thinking scare some so much?

I suppose one could similarly ask why some always seem attracted to what they like to term "alternative thinking"? Regardless of its essential merits or demerits, as if it were somehow intrinsically 'better' or more 'worthy' than mere "conventional" or "mainstream" thinking.

Why does 'conventional thinking' dissatisfy some so much?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462553

Postby Clariman » December 2nd, 2021, 10:20 am

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Gentle reminder to keep it polite and not goad each other. I don't want to have to delete more posts. Thanks Clariman

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462592

Postby onthemove » December 2nd, 2021, 11:45 am

Went to Tesco for the first time since the mask rule change last night.

Quite interesting how many were not wearing masks this time. Far more than when masks were made compulsory last year.

The couple entering in front of me didn't have masks, and were gently reminded by the security guard - one seemed to then put a mask on, the other remained without, and continued to enter the store maskless with no further challenge (they were too far away for me to hear what they said, but from a distance it all looked good natured).

And walking round the store, there were quite a few couples - strangely it seemed to be people shopping as couples - that were going without masks.

Seeing the number of people without masks, it's fair to say this was likely replicated in other supermarkets around the area. And let's get real, there wasn't a policeman in sight dishing out fines.

Now you can jump up and down and get hysterical about 'evidence' and about 'respect', but at the end of the day, you need people's support to combat a pandemic.

Some of you may already have guessed from my earlier posts that I really object to wearing a mask, and am very angry at this moment (bearing in mind the relatively stable infection rates) that the mandate has been re-imposed, but I'm also somewhat rather OCD about sticking to rules. So last night I was wearing a mask.

My point being that even when you see people who are wearing masks, you cannot assume that they are doing so due to 'being on board'.

Where am I going with this?

Well, bearing in mind that one would presume that all those who are pro-mask, would already have been wearing a mask prior to this latest mandate - which actually seemed a not insubstantial percentage - was it really worth antagonizing the remainder by making mask wearing mandatory?

I certainly don't make any effort to wash my mask. It's not a medical grade mask of any sort. In fact, it's only been washed once since I bought it solely because of the mask mandates, and that one time was only because I left it in my pocket by accident when I washed my trousers.

And p*ss*d off at being made to wear a mask, I decided not to bother now using the hand sanitizer on entry to the supermarket this time - ironically I couldn't help notice previously that the majority of those wearing masks prior to this mandate just walked straight past the hand sanitizer and didn't bother with it.

And I, like I'm sure many others, fidgets with their mask while they're wearing it, almost certainly transferring any infectious agent from it on to their hands.

Now reading the comments at the bottom of the BBC news articles, it's clear that a lot of pro-mask wearers have quite a blinkered view on this. They seem to take it as read that if someone doesn't like wearing a mask that they must there for being covid denying anti-vaxxers.

Yet a quick look at the statistics shows that to be nonsense. Even now, with the mask mandatory by law, there was a higher percentage of people not wearing a mask in the supermarket last night, than have not been vaccinated according to the government figures.

So it's abundantly clear that many of us who do not wish to wear a mask, are certainly not covid deniers. Far from it. And we generally try to play our part in other ways.

But human nature being what it is, when we're forced to do something that we don't wish, then it certainly becomes harder for us to continue to be supportive of doing other things in support.

And judging by the numbers not wearing masks in the supermarket last night - it wasn't just one or two people, it was a reasonable proportion - it looks to me like a good proportion of people are now fed up with the nannying - so much so, that they were prepared to risk a fine, by refusing to wear a mask while they were shopping.

All in all, is it really worth antagonising such a significant proportion of the population by forcing them to wear a mask? Is wearing a mask really of such importance that losing those people's support in dealing with the pandemic in other areas, is really worth it?

My visit to the supermarket last night, showed me that a good proportion (I didn't count, but estimate somewhere in the region of 25 to 35%) of people are clearly not happy about being forced to wear a mask - so much so that they were now prepared to risk a fine rather than comply.

And the fact that there was no police presence there to fine them, really does emphasize more than ever that you're not going to combat covid by coercion - it's abundantly clear that you need people to be onboard with efforts. And you ain't going to get people on board through coercion.

Final note:

It hasn't escaped even the normally covid hysterical guardian just how politically convenient the latest variant has been for Boris...

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfr ... nt-cartoon
"Martin Rowson on Boris Johnson and the Omicron variant – cartoon"

What better way than to distract the country by reintroducing mandatory mask wearing to instill the fear of a new variant into everyone, to divert their attention.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462604

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 2nd, 2021, 12:26 pm

onthemove wrote:Went to Tesco for the first time since the mask rule change last night.

Quite interesting how many were not wearing masks this time. Far more than when masks were made compulsory last year.


Widespread non-compliance might nullify my prediction. But having already posted it, I shall stick my neck out and stick by it.

From memory, I think I saw quite a lot of masks in Lidl on Monday. Maybe yesterday's news about last year's Downing Street Xmas party has engendered so much cynicism as to kill off the compliance we saw last year and in the first half of this year?

It hasn't escaped even the normally covid hysterical guardian just how politically convenient the latest variant has been for Boris...


Hmmm. To be fair, other countries are also playing that one. Isn't the current need for dead cats actually at a pretty ordinary level here?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462610

Postby redsturgeon » December 2nd, 2021, 12:49 pm

Just come back from Sainsburys 100% mask wearing.

John

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#462616

Postby onthemove » December 2nd, 2021, 1:14 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Just come back from Sainsburys 100% mask wearing.

John


Maybe related to the public statements the supermarkets have made in relation to this...

Tesco will just be putting signs up to remind customers about face mask rules, the BBC understands.
Sainsbury's said it will have "greeters and security guards at the front of our supermarkets" to remind people to wear masks.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-59481287


Tesco last night didn't have any greeters the way they did last year.

And the security guard that I mentioned who did gently remind the couple in front of me, was just stood at the normal security guard post and walked halfway over to speak (still at a distance) to the people. He wasn't specifically positioned as any visible check for mask compliance. And like I say, other than reminding the people, he didn't push it when one of them politely declined to wear one. And I got the impression that he was only occasionally challenging people, given how many weren't wearing masks.

The time of day may also play into it. I shop quite late in the evening when it's quieter. Perhaps, again, it's people doing their own risk assessments and figuring that when you're in very a big, spacious and fairly empty-of-people store, you can generally keep a distance from anyone else, so why follow a rule for the sake of following a rule.

i.e. not a case of people being disrespectful or covid deniers, just a case of people using sensible judgement - even though that's now illegal.


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