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England to surpass Wales again

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
XFool
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463052

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 12:18 pm

onthemove wrote:Is resorting to personal insults yet again the best you've got?

TLF really is getting to be a very obnoxious place to be around with the combination of you, Mike4 and XFool.

Each of you has made no secret that you each feel so superior to anyone who might have different views, but when challenged each of you either seems to just resort to personal insults, or deliberately presenting arguments that you know very well don't wash. (Like trying to claim there is a difference between covid and the flu...

:?:

onthemove wrote:...but when challenged, only then presenting facts that you know very well are equally as applicable to covid and the flu... and then resulting to personal insults / sarcasm when you complain that people don't then seem to 'get' your reasoning.)

If I was having this discussion with you in the real world, I would now have reached the firm conclusion that none of you have any serious intention of genuinely engaging in debate and that your continued engagement is just to, in effect, bullying ridicule and game playing.

In essence, if this were a discussion in the real world, by now I'd be very bluntly using two well known words to express exactly my thoughts towards your game.

Sadly, TLF doesn't permit such words.

onthemove, I'm sorry you feel you are being belittled. Honestly, I have tried really quite hard to put across to you my pov (after all, like anyone, I prefer to be understood). More than once. For one reason or another you seem not to quite 'get' the points I am making. You seem to interpret everything in your own particular way which, unfortunately, seems to me to include misunderstanding what I am saying. I assume this is not deliberate, but it does make communication extremely difficult, AFAIAC.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463054

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 12:25 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:On the contrary... I'm starting to develop yet another theory: When anybody announces that they "think for themselves" - Run!

So you don't think people should think for themselves?

Or you don't think people should be allowed to think for themselves?

Perhaps you could be a little clearer on what your point is.

And who do you think it should apply to? Would you consider yourself to be in the category who are allowed to think for themselves, or the category who aren't allowed to think for themselves?

Well! Asking me what I think about any of this sounds possibly like a bit of a recursive trap. :)

I actually think it is a very interesting question indeed (so interesting that I already think about it quite a lot!). Unfortunately, its one of those 'very interesting' questions/topics that risks getting rapidly holed below the waterline on TLF - for being OT, if for nothing else.

So... How to proceed?

Moderator Message:
May I suggest that all concerned listen to this informative half hour programme on R4 yesterday. It discusses exactly this problem and terms it
"Motivated cognition"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/m001219p

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463058

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 4th, 2021, 12:43 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
onthemove wrote:Went to Tesco for the first time since the mask rule change last night.

Quite interesting how many were not wearing masks this time. Far more than when masks were made compulsory last year.


Widespread non-compliance might nullify my prediction. But having already posted it, I shall stick my neck out and stick by it.


Hmm. Another factor I wasn't clear about when I first posted. This rule is much more limited in scope than last time.

In the pub on Thursday evening (as every week), not a mask in sight. And that's perfectly legal now. It's just public transport and shops blighted this time.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463061

Postby GrahamPlatt » December 4th, 2021, 12:49 pm


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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463063

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 4th, 2021, 12:53 pm

GrahamPlatt wrote:Here UE, have a read of this; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9421000017

Reading just the abstract, it appears to focus on very familiar subjects. Nothing remotely relevant to my subject, which is mask law.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463064

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 12:55 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:Here UE, have a read of this; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9421000017

Reading just the abstract, it appears to focus on very familiar points. Nothing remotely relevant to my subject, which is mask law.

"mask law" ? Now that was in no way clear from your OP! (It still isn't, to me. :? )

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463067

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 4th, 2021, 1:00 pm

XFool wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:
GrahamPlatt wrote:Here UE, have a read of this; https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/a ... 9421000017

Reading just the abstract, it appears to focus on very familiar points. Nothing remotely relevant to my subject, which is mask law.

"mask law" ? Now that was in no way clear from your OP! (It still isn't, to me. :? )


Oh dear.
To preempt potential confusion, I'm talking about mask laws. Which is not quite the same thing as masked vs unmasked populations (let alone individuals - you didn't say that, but others in this thread are implicitly doing so).


I thought the OP was clear enough too. Apart from the typo, the very first sentence sets the scene: it's a rule change I was talking about.
Last edited by UncleEbenezer on December 4th, 2021, 1:06 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463068

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 1:04 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:Reading just the abstract, it appears to focus on very familiar points. Nothing remotely relevant to my subject, which is mask law.

"mask law" ? Now that was in no way clear from your OP! (It still isn't, to me. :? )

Oh dear.
To preempt potential confusion, I'm talking about mask laws. Which is not quite the same thing as masked vs unmasked populations (let alone individuals - you didn't say that, but others in this thread are implicitly doing so).

If you say so...

UncleEbenezer wrote:Seems [those in power] have declared masks mandatoy in England again. So now the scene is set for us to close the gap in infection rates with Wales, and resume the lead we consistently had before the [Deletion] rule was dropped in England in July.

I predict that gap will close and we'll be ahead again within a month. Unless we get a rapid reverse-ferret.

UncleEbenezer, at this point I can definitely say I have no idea what point you are making here.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463069

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 1:09 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:To preempt potential confusion, I'm talking about mask laws. Which is not quite the same thing as masked vs unmasked populations (let alone individuals - you didn't say that, but others in this thread are implicitly doing so).

I thought the OP was clear enough too. Apart from the typo, the very first sentence sets the scene: it's a rule change I was talking about.

OK. There has been a rule change. We all know this, so...? Should we simply ignore your following sentences in the OP?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463070

Postby redsturgeon » December 4th, 2021, 1:19 pm

Clearly the point being made is that by the time the powers that be bring in a mask rule it is already too late to stop the increasing infection numbers already baked in to the population.

John

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463071

Postby onthemove » December 4th, 2021, 1:22 pm

XFool wrote:onthemove, I'm sorry you feel you are being belittled. Honestly, I have tried really quite hard to put across to you my pov (after all, like anyone, I prefer to be understood). More than once. For one reason or another you seem not to quite 'get' the points I am making.


I wonder what you might be implying that that 'reason' could possibly be?

XFool wrote: You seem to interpret everything in your own particular way which, unfortunately, seems to me to include misunderstanding what I am saying. I assume this is not deliberate, but it does make communication extremely difficult, AFAIAC.

XFool


It's not just me. Another poster has also pointed out the absence of a substantive argument in your posts. That the things you present don't actually provide support for the claims you are making.

But when we've pointed this out to you, it is then you who have feigned ignorance that you don't know what we're talking about.

But you're not fooling anyone.

We all know that you're not stupid. You seem to be able to form what appears superficially to be a structured argument. You clearly know how you're supposed to form arguments in essays and such like. You clearly know what a substantive argument should be like.

So when you try to claim that covid is different, and just post throwaway things like "it's infectious" when you know very well the flu is also infectious, you clearly know full well that you are not in any way backing up your point.

When you try to claim that covid is different, because when it comes to the flu you claim we have a flu vaccination program, when you know full well we also have had a covid vaccination program for quite a while now, again you know full well that you are not backing up your argument.

In a subsequent post when we pointed these things out to you, you seemed to be in total agreement and seemed to be making us out as being thick for even pointing these things out.

Yet these are the things that you presented in your argument to claim covid is different to the flu, and that that is why we need to act differently.

Then you tried to claim it was because we are in a pandemic. But then when presented with the definition of what a pandemic is, you still haven't explained why this makes any difference - why if the UK were facing the same pressures, but not other countries, why should the UK response be any different? Why does it matter whether or not other countries are having difficulties or not? Surely what matters is the UK situation, so whether or not there is a declared 'pandemic' shouldn't really influence how England deals with the situation in England.

Now of course there could be nuances within the things you presented. Though, to be clear, you haven't referred to these nuances, nor used them as part of your argument. For example, you just assert that covid is 'infectious', you don't say anything about the level of infectiousness in your argument. You're not stupid. You know full well that if your argument depends on the comparative rates of infection, that you would need to call out the relevant details in order to make your argument. Which you clearly haven't done.

And I suspect that is because you know that if you do so, then that would start to show the cracks in your argument.

For example, if you were to try to claim the different rates of infection (as opposed to just retorting 'it's infectious') were what made the need to act differently for covid in comparison to the flu, you know full well that you could then be challenged on two points ... for example point (1) our covid vaccination program is already rolled out to far more people than the flu vaccination programs, and (2) the covid vaccines are considered to be substantially better (efficacy, etc) than the flu vaccines. You're already well aware that we have already referred to an analysis from the London School of Health and Tropical Medicine which suggests that even if everyone were to catch covid now, the number of hospitalisations wouldn't be all that excessive compared to what they would have been without the vaccination program, etc.

So if that were your argument, you would then still need to go into further detail to support your argument.

There maybe other nuances you have in mind, but again, if you don't actually present what they are, then people have no option but to challenge your argument in the form you present it. And in the form that you have presented so far, no reasonable, sincere person would consider that the arguments you have made lead to the conclusion that you claim.

And I suspect the problem is, that you don't actually have a deep enough understanding yourself to be able to respond to the challenges which I suspect you know you'll open up by presenting your reasoning in more detail.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463074

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 1:23 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Clearly the point being made is that by the time the powers that be bring in a mask rule it is already too late to stop the increasing infection numbers already baked in to the population.

Well, that interpretation may well explain it - can UE confirm? However, I have to disagree with your use of the word "Clearly". It was far from clear to me and, looking at other posts, seemingly not clear to others.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463075

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 4th, 2021, 1:24 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Clearly the point being made is that by the time the powers that be bring in a mask rule it is already too late to stop the increasing infection numbers already baked in to the population.

John

That may very well be true, but it wasn't my point. I posited Wales as a control population: whatever is already baked in by natural causes (like a new variant - or even a drop away to near-zero as seen in Japan) should affect both populations.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463077

Postby onthemove » December 4th, 2021, 1:48 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Clearly the point being made is that by the time the powers that be bring in a mask rule it is already too late to stop the increasing infection numbers already baked in to the population.

John


Clearly not the only point.

Another point is that we've (mostly) all had the vaccines. Certainly anyone that wants the jab has had more than ample time to have it. And it's completely free of charge.

We're told that these vaccines - almost all of them - whether mRNA or viral vector, etc, have all proved extremely effective. Much more than scientists had dared hope at the beginning of the pandemic and more effective than even most other vaccines in widespread use. (And I don't dispute this; I've looked into other vaccines before I've had them in the past, and for sure the efficacy numbers for the covid vaccines do look excellent - I could perhaps only point to the yellow fever vaccine potentially being better and that was considered to be a very, very effective vaccine)

We also have a number of drug treatments that can substantially improve the chances for those who do end up in hospital.

So one point that needs to be considered is whether the increasing number of infections is really the metric that we should be looking at any more.

Scientists are pretty much in agreement that covid isn't going to go away, and that we'll all likely get it at some point.

With it fairly well established that getting covid can actually give broader protection against potential other strains compared to the vaccine, isn't there an argument for letting as many people catch covid as possible while they still have reasonable protection from the vaccine against hospitalisation and death?

To use a formula 1 analogy, the teams warm up their tyres before they go out for a race to give traction - once they're out racing, the tyres keep themselves warm. There's no point warming up the tyres and then leaving them to stand for hours getting cold again before you go out on the race track. In many ways, aren't the vaccines going to be acting like warming up the tyres so to speak, in our race against covid?

Letting only a few people catch covid each round of vaccines, is just ensuring that we will need boosters every few months from here on in. Analogous to most formula 1 drivers letting their tyres cool down again before they hit the race track.

And if pressure on the NHS is the concern, I've raised this point before... why is covid the area that must be subject to legal restrictions. Sure, covid was here last, so us Brits with our love of queuing intuitively feel therefore that covid should therefore be where the restrictions are placed.

But surely there's quite a strong argument for freeing up pressure on the NHS by a 6 month ban on alcohol consumption, diverting the NHS resources instead to supporting the minority of people for whom the vaccine didn't work as well as hoped (or those that have chosen not to take it), while the population rapidly builds up a wider tolerance to covid by widespread infection.

You never know, a 'quick burn' like that could even let covid fizzle out like it seems to have done in Japan. Though that wouldn't be the aim - the aim would just be to rapidly build up widespread tolerance in the population. But if it happens to fizzle out, so much the better.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463078

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 1:49 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote: You seem to interpret everything in your own particular way which, unfortunately, seems to me to include misunderstanding what I am saying. I assume this is not deliberate, but it does make communication extremely difficult, AFAIAC.

It's not just me. Another poster has also pointed out the absence of a substantive argument in your posts. That the things you present don't actually provide support for the claims you are making.

But when we've pointed this out to you, it is then you who have feigned ignorance that you don't know what we're talking about.

But you're not fooling anyone.

We all know that you're not stupid. You seem to be able to form what appears superficially to be a structured argument. You clearly know how you're supposed to form arguments in essays and such like. You clearly know what a substantive argument should be like.

So when you try to claim that covid is different, and just post throwaway things like "it's infectious" when you know very well the flu is also infectious, you clearly know full well that you are not in any way backing up your point.

When you try to claim that covid is different, because when it comes to the flu you claim we have a flu vaccination program, when you know full well we also have had a covid vaccination program for quite a while now, again you know full well that you are not backing up your argument.

In a subsequent post when we pointed these things out to you, you seemed to be in total agreement and seemed to be making us out as being thick for even pointing these things out.

Yet these are the things that you presented in your argument to claim covid is different to the flu, and that that is why we need to act differently.

If I may (typically? :) ) dodge a direct reply to your comments, I'd like to ask you a question - simply for you to think about. You might like to reply, you might not. The question is:

"What is your explanation for what has been going on over the last two years? Not just in the UK, but all over the world. In countries very different to our own, even those who are sworn enemies of ourselves. Are they all wrong? After all, if it's just a bit of seasonal flu..."

onthemove wrote:Then you tried to claim it was because we are in a pandemic. But then when presented with the definition of what a pandemic is, you still haven't explained why this makes any difference - why if the UK were facing the same pressures, but not other countries, why should the UK response be any different? Why does it matter whether or not other countries are having difficulties or not? Surely what matters is the UK situation, so whether or not there is a declared 'pandemic' shouldn't really influence how England deals with the situation in England.

Now of course there could be nuances within the things you presented. Though, to be clear, you haven't referred to these nuances, nor used them as part of your argument. For example, you just assert that covid is 'infectious', you don't say anything about the level of infectiousness in your argument. You're not stupid. You know full well that if your argument depends on the comparative rates of infection, that you would need to call out the relevant details in order to make your argument. Which you clearly haven't done.

And I suspect that is because you know that if you do so, then that would start to show the cracks in your argument.

For example, if you were to try to claim the different rates of infection (as opposed to just retorting 'it's infectious') were what made the need to act differently for covid in comparison to the flu, you know full well that you could then be challenged on two points ... for example point (1) our covid vaccination program is already rolled out to far more people than the flu vaccination programs, and (2) the covid vaccines are considered to be substantially better (efficacy, etc) than the flu vaccines. You're already well aware that we have already referred to an analysis from the London School of Health and Tropical Medicine which suggests that even if everyone were to catch covid now, the number of hospitalisations wouldn't be all that excessive compared to what they would have been without the vaccination program, etc.

So if that were your argument, you would then still need to go into further detail to support your argument.

There maybe other nuances you have in mind, but again, if you don't actually present what they are, then people have no option but to challenge your argument in the form you present it. And in the form that you have presented so far, no reasonable, sincere person would consider that the arguments you have made lead to the conclusion that you claim.

And I suspect the problem is, that you don't actually have a deep enough understanding yourself to be able to respond to the challenges which I suspect you know you'll open up by presenting your reasoning in more detail.

onthemove, do you also think all the above applies to the people in SAGE? Whence their recommendations? After all, it's not MY advice or thinking that the government is being informed by. Perhaps you should put your questions to SAGE?

One general point: I am assuming, relying on, implicit understanding. If I have to argue every little thing from first principles in every case, reference every single fact in every post, it would get more than a little tedious. (Too tedious to post?). This is a public financial BB, not an academic forum on virology. Remember too, I have no expertise in any of these matters - nor ever claimed to - I simply rely on my general understanding and interpretation of what people are saying who DO have the relevant expertise - that is also a judgement call. Seems simple to me! (I guess I can therefore be accused of not "thinking for myself"!)

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463082

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 1:59 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
redsturgeon wrote:Clearly the point being made is that by the time the powers that be bring in a mask rule it is already too late to stop the increasing infection numbers already baked in to the population.

That may very well be true, but it wasn't my point.

Oh dear! :)

UncleEbenezer wrote:I posited Wales as a control population: whatever is already baked in by natural causes (like a new variant - or even a drop away to near-zero as seen in Japan) should affect both populations.

What is, "already baked in" ? Particularly when it comes to "a new variant"?

I guess 'it' is already "baked in" - in principle. But as we do not, and can not know in advance what 'it' is, whether "baked in" or not, I once again fail to understand the, remarkably elusive, point you are making.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463087

Postby onthemove » December 4th, 2021, 2:28 pm

XFool wrote:If I may (typically? :) ) dodge a direct reply to your comments, I'd like to ask you a question - simply for you to think about. You might like to reply, you might not. The question is:

"What is your explanation for what has been going on over the last two years? Not just in the UK, but all over the world. In countries very different to our own, even those who are sworn enemies of ourselves. Are they all wrong? After all, if it's just a bit of seasonal flu..."


What do you mean by 'explanation' for what has been going on over the last two years?

I could give you my assessment, but I don't believe there is an 'explanation' as such.

Covid happened. That's simply a statement of fact.

People with an anti-china bias would likely come up with an 'explanation' around that all the anti-WHO rhetoric associated with that, etc. Wet markets, lab leaks or whatever suits their agenda.

And there are plenty of other folks with different agendas who would provide 'explanations' framed by their own agendas.

Those with a 'scientific' agenda, will potentially focus tunnel vision - as has been pointed out by a number of other posters in the past - on numbers, and disregard anything and everything that isn't worshipping the numbers and the models.

Personally, I don't believe I have any such agenda.

My assessment, irrespective of the political rights or wrongs that I may feel about how we've ended up here, is that over the past 2 years, the aim has been to develop a vaccine to give us protection against the disease and treatments to let us get back to living as normal.

And my assessment is - and I don't believe it's contentious - is that the vaccine efforts have been an absolutely staggering success by any criteria that anyone remotely had in mind in the early days of the pandemic.

Not only 1 vaccine, but many.

Not only effective vaccines, but some of the most effective vaccines ever developed.

Not only quickly developed, but the quickest development of any vaccines, ever.

And in terms of availability, practically everyone in the country (except perhaps young children(?); I forget where we're up to on that one) has had ample opportunity to have both vaccines, completely free of charge.

And yet, we are still not opening up.

My assessment is that we have now collectively lost the plot. So tunnel vision in our obsession with covid numbers and keeping covid numbers down, that we haven't recognised that hey guys, you know what, all that effort all that good work.... you know what IT WORKED.

Hello, anybody, ... anyone... hello, anyone want to take their head from up their numbers and have a look around....

That vaccine... THOSE vaccines... those VERY EFFECTIVE vaccines... we did it!!

And all we seem to get in response is...

Shhhshh, stop bugging us, we're watching the numbers,.. for god's sake man can't you see the number of infections is rising, get your bloody mask on you selfish idiot and work from home and cancel christmas.... again. The virus is everywhere, be afraid very afraid, it may be a very dangerous mutation ... or might not, but it could be so we must assume it is even though we don't have any evidence because that's not what we normally do with variants of other diseases, but this is covid so that's different, why, I dunno, but covid is different, we've got to be scared first until proven we don't need to be scared.... get your bloody mask on you know the evidence is that they work...

Hey mate, do you wear a mask at home, the evidence reported in the BMJ says it substantially reduces transmission to your loved ones..

Ermrm, urrch, but that's different.... I don't want to wear one at home and I don't care what the evidence says, I don't want you telling me what to do. But you get your mask on because the evidence says it works and wearing a mask is no big deal (expect when I'm at home and don't want to wear it, in which case yes it's a big deal).

:roll:

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463094

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 2:50 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:If I may (typically? :) ) dodge a direct reply to your comments, I'd like to ask you a question - simply for you to think about. You might like to reply, you might not. The question is:

"What is your explanation for what has been going on over the last two years? Not just in the UK, but all over the world. In countries very different to our own, even those who are sworn enemies of ourselves. Are they all wrong? After all, if it's just a bit of seasonal flu..."

What do you mean by 'explanation' for what has been going on over the last two years?

I could give you my assessment, but I don't believe there is an 'explanation' as such.

Covid happened. That's simply a statement of fact.

OK

onthemove wrote:People with an anti-china bias would likely come up with an 'explanation' around that all the anti-WHO rhetoric associated with that, etc. Wet markets, lab leaks or whatever suits their agenda.

And there are plenty of other folks with different agendas who would provide 'explanations' framed by their own agendas.

Those with a 'scientific' agenda, will potentially focus tunnel vision - as has been pointed out by a number of other posters in the past - on numbers, and disregard anything and everything that isn't worshipping the numbers and the models.

Personally, I don't believe I have any such agenda.

My assessment, irrespective of the political rights or wrongs that I may feel about how we've ended up here, is that over the past 2 years, the aim has been to develop a vaccine to give us protection against the disease and treatments to let us get back to living as normal.

OK

onthemove wrote:And my assessment is - and I don't believe it's contentious - is that the vaccine efforts have been an absolutely staggering success by any criteria that anyone remotely had in mind in the early days of the pandemic.

Not only 1 vaccine, but many.

Not only effective vaccines, but some of the most effective vaccines ever developed.

Not only quickly developed, but the quickest development of any vaccines, ever.

And in terms of availability, practically everyone in the country (except perhaps young children(?); I forget where we're up to on that one) has had ample opportunity to have both vaccines, completely free of charge.

OK. Though a couple of points:

Sticking with the UK, even now the second vaccination level is far from fantastic. I saw on the BBC website that for the booster it was about 28% of the population and it is now known that it is following the booster that the protection really goes up. That - given the emergence of the latest variant - is why the government has gone full out with the booster programme.

Also, this is the situation in the UK, it is not yet the situation in every part of the world - and as this is a pandemic, it is in every part of the human world. And I must point out again that, being infectious(!) is spreads from person to person, from town to town, from population to population, from country to country (THAT is what I mean by "it's infectious").

onthemove wrote:And yet, we are still not opening up.

But we have, we did! We were on the glidepath to our destination. BUT: We are going into the winter season (and all that that implies) and then the latest news of the new "variant of concern". So... precautions are being taken. Again, I just don't see what the problem is! (Apart from the coronavirus, obviously). Perhaps the latest variant will turn out in time to be 'harmless' ? OK. Good.

onthemove wrote:My assessment is that we have now collectively lost the plot. So tunnel vision in our obsession with covid numbers and keeping covid numbers down, that we haven't recognised that hey guys, you know what, all that effort all that good work.... you know what IT WORKED.

Yes. But the coronavirus pandemic hasn't (yet) gone away, you know.

onthemove wrote:Hello, anybody, ... anyone... hello, anyone want to take their head from up their numbers and have a look around....

That vaccine... THOSE vaccines... those VERY EFFECTIVE vaccines... we did it!!

And all we seem to get in response is...

Shhhshh, stop bugging us, we're watching the numbers,.. for god's sake man can't you see the number of infections is rising, get your bloody mask on you selfish idiot and work from home and cancel christmas.... again. The virus is everywhere, be afraid very afraid, it may be a very dangerous mutation ... or might not, but it could be so we must assume it is even though we don't have any evidence because that's not what we normally do with variants of other diseases, but this is covid so that's different, why, I dunno, but covid is different, we've got to be scared first until proven we don't need to be scared.... get your bloody mask on you know the evidence is that they work...

Hey mate, do you wear a mask at home, the evidence reported in the BMJ says it substantially reduces transmission to your loved ones..

Ermrm, urrch, but that's different.... I don't want to wear one at home and I don't care what the evidence says, I don't want you telling me what to do. But you get your mask on because the evidence says it works and wearing a mask is no big deal (expect when I'm at home and don't want to wear it, in which case yes it's a big deal). :roll:

Too much jumping up and down. IMO.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463096

Postby onthemove » December 4th, 2021, 2:54 pm

XFool wrote:One general point: I am assuming, relying on, implicit understanding. If I have to argue every little thing from first principles in every case, reference every single fact in every post, it would get more than a little tedious. (Too tedious to post?). This is a public financial BB, not an academic forum on virology. Remember too, I have no expertise in any of these matters - nor ever claimed to - I simply rely on my general understanding and interpretation of what people are saying who DO have the relevant expertise - that is also a judgement call. Seems simple to me! (I guess I can therefore be accused of not "thinking for myself"!)


There's no need for any 'accusations' - you've just openly admitted to it in the very same paragraph.

However, it would be helpful if you could make it clear when you are being sarcastic or derogatory towards other posters that you are basing your position of superiority simply on the basis of your 'interpretation of what people are saying who DO have the relevant expertise', and not any real evaluation on your part.

It would also be helpful if you could provide a reference to which people with the relevant expertise that you are referring. I mean, it's abundantly clear that there are a number of different experts and that these haven't all held the same view at the same time.

I mean, take professor Ferguson. Early in the pandemic he was being treated almost as a rock star, and his predictions were treated as being just such an expert as I believe you are describing. It was, iirc, his modelling as much as any that was used to support the first lockdown. And then it was, iirc, his predictions that many of the press were using to call for mandatory mask wearing to remain in place after July, but the government ignored him, and in reality his predictions turned out to be wide of the mark.

I just happened to be watching Newsnight the other night, and he was being interviewed, and the interviewer asked him at what point we would consider no longer treating covid as an emergency, and he responds by saying he thinks we've been close to that point, at least in the UK, for a few months now. See at approx the 13 minute mark : https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... t-02122021

That would seem to be quite wide of the mark from your view - you still claim we're 'in the middle' of it.

The interviewer even goes on to point out to him, that he thought it would be over by october at one point, and politely questions whether his modelling wasn't being realistic (not properly taking into account the possibility of variants). He points out that yes we have 50,000 cases a day, but he says that we're in a very much better place than we were a year ago.

So he seems to recognise that we have moved on in this pandemic.

All in all, I'd say that particular expert has shown more of a shift, and recognition as to where we are in the pandemic than you seem to be willing to acknowledge.

Am I to assume that you therefore don't consider him to be one of the experts to whom you look to form your general understanding of the situation?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463098

Postby UncleEbenezer » December 4th, 2021, 3:00 pm

XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Dealing with unknowns like that are why we have control populations.

Even the epidemiologists have very little idea, which is why they give us a wide range of different projections hedged with uncertainty.
Last edited by UncleEbenezer on December 4th, 2021, 3:04 pm, edited 1 time in total.


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