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England to surpass Wales again

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
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This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Lootman
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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463099

Postby Lootman » December 4th, 2021, 3:00 pm

Mike4 wrote:people who really are capable thinkers, do critically evaluate what they are being told. But were we diverge is I see part of the thinking as looking beyond at the rational, the evidence, the research and taking the time and trouble to read and properly understand what the researchers did and concluded. Doing this often (but not always) one concludes that the 'official' advice is actually and genuinely 'best advice based on the available evidence', and therefore correct, not 'wrong because I think for myself'.

I often notice those less skilled in critical thinking tend to start with the conclusion they want, e.g. "masks don't work", then cast around for supporting evidence, which is always available if one looks hard enough. But such thinking sometimes results in the thinker dismissing as arrogant anyone opposing their preconceived view, and all opposing evidence as 'rubbish'.

I might agree that people tend to start out with their bias and then scout around for "evidence" that supports that bias. I see this all the time here but it is not limited only to people who take a different view from you. I don't think that anyone here gets to define "critical thinkers" as only those who hold a similar opinion! To my mind critical thinking involves not assuming that the "experts" are correct.

As for "taking the time and trouble to read and properly understand what the researchers . . ", I will counter that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I worry less about people who know nothing about this topic but know that they know nothing. It is the people who read a few things and then present themselves as some kind of amateur armchair expert that have me worried.

The reality is that (I would guess) there is not a single Lemon here who has the highly specialised knowledge in this area to be certain of their beliefs. But when they present their views as some kind of expertise, then I become concerned. Along with those who just mindlessly trot out the official line without question because "the government surely knows best" - interestingly it is often those same people who criticise the government left and right in other policy areas.

XFool wrote:Honestly, I have tried really quite hard to put across to you my pov (after all, like anyone, I prefer to be understood). More than once. For one reason or another you seem not to quite 'get' the points I am making. You seem to interpret everything in your own particular way which, unfortunately, seems to me to include misunderstanding what I am saying. I assume this is not deliberate, but it does make communication extremely difficult, AFAIAC.

If I may respectfully suggest one reason you find yourself in these situations more than most here, it is exactly what you just expressed. It seems that if someone does not agree with you then you automatically assume that they did not understand what you meant. But often they understand exactly what you mean. They just think you are wrong.

It can come across as a tad arrogant to assume that just because someone disagrees with you, that they lack the ability to comprehend you. Another distinct possibility is that you do not understand them!

I think taking an approach that is less condescending to your adversary might be more fruitful.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463110

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 3:32 pm

onthemove wrote:
XFool wrote:One general point: I am assuming, relying on, implicit understanding. If I have to argue every little thing from first principles in every case, reference every single fact in every post, it would get more than a little tedious. (Too tedious to post?). This is a public financial BB, not an academic forum on virology. Remember too, I have no expertise in any of these matters - nor ever claimed to - I simply rely on my general understanding and interpretation of what people are saying who DO have the relevant expertise - that is also a judgement call. Seems simple to me! (I guess I can therefore be accused of not "thinking for myself"!)

There's no need for any 'accusations' - you've just openly admitted to it in the very same paragraph.

:)
onthemove wrote:However, it would be helpful if you could make it clear when you are being sarcastic or derogatory towards other posters that you are basing your position of superiority simply on the basis of your 'interpretation of what people are saying who DO have the relevant expertise', and not any real evaluation on your part.

Oh come on! Are you now claiming to be an expert virologist? Do you expect all the rest of us to be too? I base my understanding on just about everything on the expertise of others who are experts in their fields. I think realistically that is the best most people can do - unless they do have genuine expertise in the relevant subject. What do you do?

onthemove wrote:I mean, take professor Ferguson.

Ah. "Professor Lockdown" :lol:

onthemove wrote: Early in the pandemic he was being treated almost as a rock star, and his predictions were treated as being just such an expert as I believe you are describing. It was, iirc, his modelling as much as any that was used to support the first lockdown. And then it was, iirc, his predictions that many of the press were using to call for mandatory mask wearing to remain in place after July, but the government ignored him, and in reality his predictions turned out to be wide of the mark.

I just happened to be watching Newsnight the other night, and he was being interviewed, and the interviewer asked him at what point we would consider no longer treating covid as an emergency, and he responds by saying he thinks we've been close to that point, at least in the UK, for a few months now. See at approx the 13 minute mark : https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m ... t-02122021

That would seem to be quite wide of the mark from your view - you still claim we're 'in the middle' of it.

No. I saw that interview too. What I have said is exactly in line with his view, IMO. But all along, with COVID, it has been a continuously changing situation - I have always said we are on a "trajectory". There never is a simple fixed, static, eternal 'Truth'. All the experts I have heard always say things like "Expect...", "Given...", "If..", "Should..." etc. That is, what they think is conditional on what actually happens. As they are not soothsayers they don't know exactly what that will be.

onthemove wrote:The interviewer even goes on to point out to him, that he thought it would be over by october at one point, and politely questions whether his modelling wasn't being realistic (not properly taking into account the possibility of variants). He points out that yes we have 50,000 cases a day, but he says that we're in a very much better place than we were a year ago.

So he seems to recognise that we have moved on in this pandemic.

OK. We have. Who is saying we haven't?

onthemove wrote:All in all, I'd say that particular expert has shown more of a shift, and recognition as to where we are in the pandemic than you seem to be willing to acknowledge.

Am I to assume that you therefore don't consider him to be one of the experts to whom you look to form your general understanding of the situation?

No. That assumption would be false.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463128

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 5:09 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Well, if you haven't, I'm sure I haven't either!

UncleEbenezer wrote:Dealing with unknowns like that are why we have control populations.

But, AFAICS, we don't have a "control population".

UncleEbenezer wrote:Even the epidemiologists have very little idea, which is why they give us a wide range of different projections hedged with uncertainty.

Yes.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463136

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 5:43 pm

Lootman wrote:To my mind critical thinking involves not assuming that the "experts" are correct.

Yeah... But I see a problem here (guarantee you won't agree). If you assume that, where do you go? To yourself? So you now have to assume two things, instead of one:

1. That the experts are not right
2. That you are expert enough to know this, and to what? a) Be more right than the experts? b)Be able to find an alternative expert?

You can always find 'alternative' experts. Particularly nowadays, Lord! There's more 'alternative experts' out there than there are bona fide experts. So why, if you are so smart, are YOU not the 'expert' ? Do you think you are? Show your working. (!) Why do you think you are smart enough to decide which 'alternative' expert is right? As well as knowing which ordinary experts are not right.

Jeez! You sound to me like you must be the smartest guy in the room. Even the smartest in the whole wide world. Sounds like you'd need to be - in which case, you don't really need ANY "experts", do you?

Alternatively: [url]https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dunning–Kruger_effect[/url] {Oh not this again - I can't be bothered}

Well, it had to come out sooner or later.

Lootman wrote:As for "taking the time and trouble to read and properly understand what the researchers . . ", I will counter that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. I worry less about people who know nothing about this topic but know that they know nothing. It is the people who read a few things and then present themselves as some kind of amateur armchair expert that have me worried.

Yes? So you can stop worrying about me, at least. :lol:

Lootman wrote:The reality is that (I would guess) there is not a single Lemon here who has the highly specialised knowledge in this area to be certain of their beliefs. But when they present their views as some kind of expertise, then I become concerned. Along with those who just mindlessly trot out the official line without question because "the government surely knows best" - interestingly it is often those same people who criticise the government left and right in other policy areas.

Up to a point, Lord Copper. This starts to sound like your nobody really knows anything line. Firstly the government is guided by scientific input - nominally we can see what that is. YES! They are the government, so there is the political angle. But I feel one can go overboard with that - some people just love 'explaining' absolutely anything and everything in political terms. And of course, that is always possible to do - Journalists! I'd just point out we don't know the full inside story politically, anymore than we do with the science. But then, everybody knows they are an expert on politics, don't they?

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote:Honestly, I have tried really quite hard to put across to you my pov (after all, like anyone, I prefer to be understood). More than once. For one reason or another you seem not to quite 'get' the points I am making. You seem to interpret everything in your own particular way which, unfortunately, seems to me to include misunderstanding what I am saying. I assume this is not deliberate, but it does make communication extremely difficult, AFAIAC.

If I may respectfully suggest one reason you find yourself in these situations more than most here, it is exactly what you just expressed. It seems that if someone does not agree with you then you automatically assume that they did not understand what you meant. But often they understand exactly what you mean. They just think you are wrong.

It can come across as a tad arrogant to assume that just because someone disagrees with you, that they lack the ability to comprehend you. Another distinct possibility is that you do not understand them!

Sure, lootman. But that cuts both ways - as I know only too well. ;)

On a BB it easy to both misunderstand and not be understood. And clearly it happens - look around you. BUT, one (common) issue, as it seems to me, is where somebody is loaded up with an agenda and then seems to interpret everything in terms of that agenda...

Now I am sure it will come as no surprise to you if I am arrogant enough to believe I can predict your reply to that.


P.S. Can you decode the meaning of UncleEbeneezer's OP? I now cannot. (I'm not sure anyone else can, either.)

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463162

Postby servodude » December 4th, 2021, 9:16 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Dealing with unknowns like that are why we have control populations.

Even the epidemiologists have very little idea, which is why they give us a wide range of different projections hedged with uncertainty.


Doesn't "baked in" used thus just mean "stuff that's happened already and because we know there's an incubation period and latencies we haven't seen the effect"
- you know... like a transport delay term in a plant model, or looking at stars (that's some ancient twinkle)

Its just a reminder that at any given point the "state" of your system isn't simply what you can observe and some of that stuff you can't see can't be changed (it's going to happen)

-sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463166

Postby XFool » December 4th, 2021, 9:34 pm

Lootman wrote:If I may respectfully suggest one reason you find yourself in these situations more than most here, it is exactly what you just expressed.

What "situation" would that be?

Lootman wrote:It seems that if someone does not agree with you then you automatically assume that they did not understand what you meant.

Well, that's surely more polite than me simply pointing out they are wrong? :lol:

Lootman wrote:But often they understand exactly what you mean. They just think you are wrong.

Nothing wrong with that - if they can put forward convincing reasons why I am wrong. Gosh! I might even agree with them. :shock:

Lootman wrote:It can come across as a tad arrogant to assume that just because someone disagrees with you, that they lack the ability to comprehend you. Another distinct possibility is that you do not understand them!

BOTH are entirely possible. You sound to me to be backing only one horse. :)

Lootman wrote:I think taking an approach that is less condescending to your adversary might be more fruitful.

Says the man who explains away what posters are saying by 'explaining' why (in his opinion) they are saying what they are saying. :roll:
viz. "You are only saying that because..."

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463169

Postby servodude » December 4th, 2021, 9:58 pm

UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Is it too early for Xmas games?

I give you a cut out and keep "What's Baked In What!"

Match the what to the where

1:Four and twenty blackbirds
2:Beef Wellington
3:A Christmas Cake
4:An expected increase in Reff from the O variant

A: an oven
B: already
C: a pie
D: puff pastry

-sd

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463175

Postby redsturgeon » December 4th, 2021, 10:28 pm

servodude wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Is it too early for Xmas games?

I give you a cut out and keep "What's Baked In What!"

Match the what to the where

1:Four and twenty blackbirds
2:Beef Wellington
3:A Christmas Cake
4:An expected increase in Reff from the O variant

A: an oven
B: already
C: a pie
D: puff pastry

-sd


You forgot Alaska!

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463178

Postby servodude » December 4th, 2021, 10:31 pm

redsturgeon wrote:
servodude wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:I have no idea.

Is it too early for Xmas games?

I give you a cut out and keep "What's Baked In What!"

Match the what to the where

1:Four and twenty blackbirds
2:Beef Wellington
3:A Christmas Cake
4:An expected increase in Reff from the O variant

A: an oven
B: already
C: a pie
D: puff pastry

-sd


You forgot Alaska!


Isn't that baked in an oven or a meringue ;)
(credit to Stanley Baxter for that one)

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463211

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 5th, 2021, 10:10 am

Julian wrote:Don't forget the lizard people


And the Hyenas!

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463214

Postby servodude » December 5th, 2021, 10:17 am

ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
Julian wrote:Don't forget the lizard people


And the Hyenas!


You're having a laugh surely!? ;)

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463216

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 5th, 2021, 10:23 am

servodude wrote:
ADrunkenMarcus wrote:
Julian wrote:Don't forget the lizard people


And the Hyenas!


You're having a laugh surely!? ;)


They live in a zoo in Denver, Colorado, USA: '22-year-old Ngozi and 23-year-old Kibo – had mild symptoms including slight lethargy, some nasal discharge and a cough. The other animals that tested positive in recent weeks had either fully recovered or were on the path to a full recovery.'

Best wishes


Mark

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463222

Postby 88V8 » December 5th, 2021, 11:06 am

servodude wrote:
UncleEbenezer wrote:
XFool wrote:What is, "already baked in" ?

I have no idea.

Is it too early for Xmas games?
2:Beef Wellington

Went to a lunch yesterday, the woman next to me had ordered a vegetable wellington.
When cut open, it consisted of a whole beetroot wrapped in pastry.
She looked at it as if it had virus.

V8

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463229

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 5th, 2021, 11:37 am

88V8 wrote:Went to a lunch yesterday, the woman next to me had ordered a vegetable wellington.
When cut open, it consisted of a whole beetroot wrapped in pastry.
She looked at it as if it had virus.


I love beetroot!

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463234

Postby XFool » December 5th, 2021, 12:08 pm

Perhaps I'm not as far out on my own as some here would like to paint me?

I bet he thinks it's infectious!

UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

The Guardian

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463238

Postby ADrunkenMarcus » December 5th, 2021, 12:21 pm

XFool wrote:Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over


People thinking the pandemic was over is what contributed to the current situation. People stopped wearing masks, stopped distancing, or taking precautions...and the virus didn't get the memo. :(

If they treat it as if it's not 'far from over', we might make progress.

Best wishes


Mark.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463259

Postby dealtn » December 5th, 2021, 1:13 pm

XFool wrote:Perhaps I'm not as far out on my own as some here would like to paint me?

I bet he thinks it's infectious!

UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

The Guardian

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over


I think the vast majority of people on the planet agree with you that it's infectious. The issue appears to be that you repeatedly use that phrase as an answer to many who argue with you (on other things), and often don't inform us what it is you are arguing about.

Provide some clarity on what it is you are saying (other than "it's infectious") and the unnecessary sideshow might stop. Worth a try?

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463261

Postby XFool » December 5th, 2021, 1:26 pm

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:Perhaps I'm not as far out on my own as some here would like to paint me?

I bet he thinks it's infectious!

UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

The Guardian

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

I think the vast majority of people on the planet agree with you that it's infectious. The issue appears to be that you repeatedly use that phrase as an answer to many who argue with you (on other things), and often don't inform us what it is you are arguing about.

Provide some clarity on what it is you are saying (other than "it's infectious") and the unnecessary sideshow might stop. Worth a try?

"Worth a try?" - Probably not! I think I've pretty well given up on that 'project'. Surely by now anyone who can understand does understand and anyone at this point who really doesn't seems to me unlikely ever to*...

Perhaps you could contact Sir Jeremy Farrar directly? He may be better than myself with the explanations.

* Because they can't? Because they don't want to? I have no idea.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463277

Postby dealtn » December 5th, 2021, 2:07 pm

XFool wrote:
dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:Perhaps I'm not as far out on my own as some here would like to paint me?

I bet he thinks it's infectious!

UK’s progress on Covid now squandered, warns top scientist

The Guardian

Sir Jeremy Farrar, director of Wellcome Trust, suggests emergence of Omicron variant means pandemic is far from over

I think the vast majority of people on the planet agree with you that it's infectious. The issue appears to be that you repeatedly use that phrase as an answer to many who argue with you (on other things), and often don't inform us what it is you are arguing about.

Provide some clarity on what it is you are saying (other than "it's infectious") and the unnecessary sideshow might stop. Worth a try?

"Worth a try?" - Probably not! I think I've pretty well given up on that 'project'. Surely by now anyone who can understand does understand and anyone at this point who really doesn't seems to me unlikely ever to*...

Perhaps you could contact Sir Jeremy Farrar directly? He may be better than myself with the explanations.

* Because they can't? Because they don't want to? I have no idea.


How does Sir Jeremy Farrar know what it is you are trying to communicate? It would be good if he did, and was willing to explain it to us.

It is a shame if you have given up on the project, as beyond expressing an opinion that "it" (being Covid) is infectious, which doesn't appear to be controversial, or a view not shared almost universally, I don't know what your argument is.

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Re: England to surpass Wales again

#463284

Postby XFool » December 5th, 2021, 2:24 pm

dealtn wrote:
XFool wrote:Perhaps you could contact Sir Jeremy Farrar directly? He may be better than myself with the explanations.

* Because they can't? Because they don't want to? I have no idea.

How does Sir Jeremy Farrar know what it is you are trying to communicate? It would be good if he did, and was willing to explain it to us.

Oh Gawd! :(

dealtn wrote:It is a shame if you have given up on the project, as beyond expressing an opinion that "it" (being Covid) is infectious, which doesn't appear to be controversial, or a view not shared almost universally, I don't know what your argument is.

No.

P.S. I am suggesting that I expect Sir Jeremy Farrar would know far, far more than I ever will about all this kind of thing and that, with that in mind, you might like to ask him to explain to you what the total significance and implication is of the term "infectious" when speaking in the context of a disease caused by a mutating (because that is what they do) viral agent that has somehow (mysteriously?) spread to all human occupied parts of the world (Antarctica?). i.e. A global pandemic of a viral disease.

I suspect he might know. That is all.


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