Donate to Remove ads

Got a credit card? use our Credit Card & Finance Calculators

Thanks to johnstevens77,Bhoddhisatva,scotia,Anonymous,Cornytiv34, for Donating to support the site

Omicron variant

The home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
Forum rules
This is the home for all non-political Coronavirus (Covid-19) discussions on The Lemon Fool
TUK020
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2039
Joined: November 5th, 2016, 7:41 am
Has thanked: 762 times
Been thanked: 1175 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462738

Postby TUK020 » December 2nd, 2021, 7:38 pm

redsturgeon wrote:Watching the Marr show this morning to try to get a calm overview of where we are this is my take.

South African doctor reports new variant a few days ago that seems highly transmissible and gives rise to a slightly different set of mild symptoms in those patients seen. (NB "mild" just means not needing hospitalisation)

This new variant is found to contain an very large number of mutations and thus could evade the current vaccines.

In the light of this, measures are swiftly taken to limit spread.

A renewed push on vaccines is in place.

Vaccine companies are already looking to prepare new vaccines available in a few months.

In the meantime we may find that best case scenario is that the Omicron variant, though highly contagious is relatively mild and the measures put in place have been an over reaction. We should know more in two weeks.

Worst case scenario is that Omicron evades the vaccine and takes hold in our elderly and vulnerable population and causes a new peak in hospitalisations and deaths but at least we acted quickly to mitigate the worst impacts though more restrictions may be necessary.

We just need to be sensible.

No need to panic or get angry...

John

Best case scenario is that Omicron evades the vaccine, causes very widespread infection, but with mild symptoms. Infection subsequently protects against more harmful variants, which rapidly disappear. Virus has mutated to become endemic, but not virulent. Subsequently gets classified as one of the common colds (mostly rhinoviruses, but includes 4 coronaviruses that are thought to be leftover mutations from the 1890 Russian Flu pandemic).

Disclosure: I have holdings of Moderna, not directly but via SMIT, MNKS, KPC

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18681
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6563 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462740

Postby Lootman » December 2nd, 2021, 7:40 pm

XFool wrote: Thing is, medically, we need to deal with what IS happening now.

Why? What has changed and when? What specifically do we need to do differently and why? Explain your reasoning.

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462741

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 7:45 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote: Thing is, medically, we need to deal with what IS happening now.

Why? What has changed and when? What do we need to do differently and why? Explain your reasoning.

I am beginning to feel "reasoning" doesn't live here anymore. :?

dealtn
Lemon Half
Posts: 6072
Joined: November 21st, 2016, 4:26 pm
Has thanked: 441 times
Been thanked: 2324 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462744

Postby dealtn » December 2nd, 2021, 8:03 pm

XFool wrote:
dealtn wrote:Might that also not have been said by yourself on previous occasions the world was also exposed to an infectious global event that dangerously exposed vulnerable people? Did you say those things (and others) at the time? If not why not?

Well, if only you had told me you hadn't been listening to the news for the past two years, I'd have gladly explained!



I can only imagine you are now trolling.

Are you claiming you are either younger than two years old, or that the only infectious disease is Covid, and that has been around for two years?

I really have no idea what your argument is, and have patiently been waiting for you to explain. To date all I can envisage your argument consist of is "It's infectious" (with "it" being Covid). To which I can reply "I agree".

I can't help but feel there is more to what you are trying to communicate, and argue, but you persist in not engaging and explaining, but instead prefer to troll.

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462745

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 8:06 pm

Will this help? (Probably not!)

On now: R4, The Briefing Room - Living in a Variant World

https://www.bbc.co.uk/sounds/play/live:bbc_radio_fourfm

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462750

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 8:27 pm

Yes/No?

The global race to contain Omicron

New Statesman

As countries close their borders over fears of the new variant, we are reminded that the pandemic is far from over.

You will likely recognise that, in line with contemporary business practice, I have now decided to outsource 'explanation'. ;)

onthemove
Lemon Slice
Posts: 540
Joined: June 24th, 2017, 4:03 pm
Has thanked: 722 times
Been thanked: 471 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462753

Postby onthemove » December 2nd, 2021, 8:49 pm

XFool wrote:This isn't really helping, is it? :lol:


You know full well that you aren't addressing the points raised.

When you gave a number of points in response to my earlier comment, and I found evidence to show they are valid for the flu, you seemed to accept they are valid for flu.

Which meant your points didn't do anything to back up your argument, and you seem to know that.

And yet again, you still haven't answered what it is about a pandemic that leads you to believe that we should trash the economy at the first sight of a new variant of covid.

Let's not beat about the bush here, omicron isn't the second letter of the Greek alphabet.

We've had a number of coronavirus 'variants of concern' but other than the delta variant which, whaddya know, just happened to coincidentally be just conveniently in the run up to christmas last year ... well actually, that's not true... the delta variant had first appeared in september last year... they only decided to make it an issue in November, whaddya know, when it became in the run up to christmas.

And let's not forget the omicron variant has already shown mutations as well... that's how they know different infections weren't from the same source.

So what? Do we treat each of these as a separate new strain and we keep trashing the economy until all the variants have been proven not-problematic. But then by that time, there'll be new variants again.

I believe someone may have already asked you this, but what's you're route of the pandemic?

Covid isn't going away. It's going to keep mutating. How does the "pandemic" end, and we can then treat future covid variants like the flu?

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462760

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 9:12 pm

Variant of concern

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Variant_of_concern

"The term variant of concern (VOC) for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, which causes COVID-19) is a category used for variants of the virus where mutations in their spike protein receptor binding domain (RBD) substantially increase binding affinity (e.g., N501Y) in RBD-hACE2 complex (genetic data), while also being linked to rapid spread in human populations (epidemiological data)."

"During the COVID-19 pandemic, the SARS-CoV-2 virus has been observed to mutate, with certain combinations of specific point mutations proving to be more concerning than others.[6] This was principally for reasons of transmissibility and virulence, and also with regard to the possible emergence of escape mutations."


Investigation of SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern: technical briefings

https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

Technical briefing documents on novel SARS-CoV-2 variants.

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462763

Postby XFool » December 2nd, 2021, 9:24 pm

Covid-19: Germany puts strict curbs on unvaccinated and families criticise 'sickening' No 10 party

BBC News

Here are five things you need to know about the coronavirus pandemic this Thursday evening. We'll have another update for you tomorrow morning.

Julian
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 1385
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 9:58 am
Has thanked: 532 times
Been thanked: 676 times

Re: Omicron variant

#462858

Postby Julian » December 3rd, 2021, 12:12 pm

Here's some good news...

...
In a study published in the Lancet, researchers on the UK-based Cov-Boost trial measured immune responses in nearly 3,000 people who received one of seven Covid-19 boosters or a control jab two to three months after their second dose of either AstraZeneca or Pfizer vaccine.

Those boosted with Pfizer after two doses of AstraZeneca had antibody levels a month later nearly 25 times higher than controls. When the Pfizer booster was given following two Pfizer shots, antibody levels rose more than eightfold.

The most potent booster in the study was a full dose of the Moderna vaccine, which raised antibody levels 32-fold in the AstraZeneca group and 11-fold in the Pfizer group. When Moderna is used in the UK booster programme, it is given at a half-dose.
...
Beyond antibodies, the scientists looked at the impact of boosters on T-cells – another crucial component of the immune system linked with the prevention of severe disease. Most of the boosters, including Pfizer, Moderna and AstraZeneca, increased T-cell levels regardless of the vaccine people had for their first two doses.

One result that has caught scientists’ attention is that the T-cell response was as good against the Beta and Delta variants of concern as against the original virus that emerged from Wuhan. Asked if the finding might be relevant to the Omicron variant, Faust said: “Our hope as scientists is that protection against hospitalisation and death will remain intact.”


[ Source: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/ ... rial-finds ]

And the referenced Lancet paper is here: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)02717-3/fulltext

The news report I heard on BBC this morning also quoted a 3-fold T-Cell boost. Looking at the Lancet report I assume that is the cellular response data and indeed it does seem to show an just over 3-fold boost in response e.g. for AZ primed and then Pfizer boosted (table 6).

This seems to me to be seriously good news especially the T-Cell response data. If I've understood things correctly it's also very possible that those massive boosts to serum antibody levels could also hopefully give a lot of headroom for boosted individuals to still not only be protected against severe disease (which is primarily a function of T-Cells as I understand it) but also retain some level of protection against mild and moderate infection even if the data on antibody effectiveness against Omicron turns out to be disappointing. I think the neutralisation titre data is probably going to be the first scientific findings relating to elements of potential Omicron immune escape to come out maybe next week or the week after. In addition to the fact that there is also T-cell response to combat severe disease there are other reasons not to get into too much of a panic if that data looks bad although I suspect that might not stop a few scare stories in the media if the results do look anything like those seen for the Beta variant.

- Julian

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#463920

Postby XFool » December 7th, 2021, 5:26 pm

onthemove wrote:Prior to covid, it was generally assumed that the next pandemic would come from a new variant of the flu.

Funny thing is, we didn't put in place all these sorts of measures 'just in case', each time a new flu variant appeared.

Sarah Gilbert: Next pandemic could be more lethal than Covid

BBC News

Future pandemics could be more lethal than the current Covid crisis, one of the creators of the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine has warned.

"Prof Dame Sarah Gilbert, delivering the 44th Richard Dimbleby Lecture, said there needed to be more funding for pandemic preparedness to prevent the advances made from being lost."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0012b15/the-richard-dimbleby-lecture-dame-sarah-gilbert

onthemove wrote:Prior to covid, the retort..

.. "...a few anecdotes don't make accurate data. We need actual data with some statistics and a bit of analysis to confirm we're right. Governments would make lots of decisions better if they used actual evidence and data." ...

...would be a good rationale for why governments typically don't knee jerk put the brakes on the economy at the first sign of a new flu variant.

But perhaps not when we are actually going through a pandemic of a novel coronavirus, do you not think?

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: Omicron variant

#463956

Postby zico » December 7th, 2021, 7:10 pm

Lootman wrote:
XFool wrote: Thing is, medically, we need to deal with what IS happening now.

Why? What has changed and when? What specifically do we need to do differently and why? Explain your reasoning.


Good question, which I agree with, but perhaps with a very different conclusion to what you may be thinking.

We first had Covid (Wuhan variant) which we took some precautions against after dither and delay. Lots of people died.
Then we had the Covid Kent (Alpha) variant - more transmissible, we took some precautions after dither and delay. Lots of people died.
Next the Covid Delta variant, even more transmissible, we took some precautions after dither and delay, lots of people died.

Now we've got the Omicron variant, even more transmissible.
So I expect we'll take some precautions after dither and delay and lots of people will die.

So agreeing with you, what has changed for us to do anything differently?

The obvious lessons we should have learned is that we need to be "over-cautious" initially when a dangerous new variant appears, until we know just how bad it is. Dither and delay hurts the economy AND costs lives - it's not a trade-off between the two.
If Omicron is actually good news (theoretically possible) there'll be plenty of time later to have Omicron parties, where everyone in the world gets infected, just has a few sniffles, and all this partying doesn't cause a dangerous mutation to emerge.

Until then, it seems sensible to assume that if it looks like a dangerous new Covid variant, it probably is a dangerous new Covid variant.

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: Omicron variant

#463968

Postby zico » December 7th, 2021, 7:41 pm

Interesting thoughts on Twitter about our path to herd immunity (again). If it does spread as fast as in other countries (obviously very likely) then over a (say) 16 week period, about half of the new infections will come in the last 2 weeks (that's just how exponential growth works).
The implication of this is that the "herd immunity" will only start to have any impact very late in the day, once large numbers of the population have already been infected.

Sensible scientists/analysts are also now saying our border travel restrictions are pretty pointless now that Omicron is seeded in lots of places all around the country, and the priority should be on infection control measures - working from home, mask-wearing inside all public places (so pubs, clubs etc).

I hope I'm wrong, but Omicron looks like extremely bad news (unless we get very lucky and it does turn out to be the first variant that's much milder than its predecessor). We know it spreads much more easily than previous variants, and we don't yet know whether or not it is more or less serious for the individual - no real evidence either way as yet. Hopefully our double-vaxxed and boostered status will provide a lot of protection, but for the unvaccinated, it's going to be very bad indeed. Personally, I think as a society, we should be trying whatever we can to save people from the consequences of their own stupidity and moving to compulsory vaccinations (where applicable) - even introducing Covid passports would be a start, but our government has always resisted this to date. (I've added "where applicable" because there are a lot of unfortunates who really want to be vaccinated but can't for medical reasons.)

Modellers seem to think we'll get a huge sharp peak over a couple of weeks (around January or February) that will equate to around 15% of total hospitalisations over the whole pandemic to date. If so, that would equate to around another 20,000 deaths. But there's still so much we don't know, so it could be 5,000 deaths or 50,000 deaths.

Given that previous lessons have most definitely NOT been learned, I expect we'll have several weeks of media commentators saying "hey this Omicron isn't spreading much at all" followed by "wow, who could possibly have predicted that absolutely huge peak that came from absolutely nowhere".

We're planning to hibernate from after next week until spring, and Xmas parties and gatherings are definitely out.

Bouleversee
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 4652
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:01 pm
Has thanked: 1195 times
Been thanked: 902 times

Re: Omicron variant

#463981

Postby Bouleversee » December 7th, 2021, 8:22 pm

Is it known how many are hospitalized with Omicron in the UK and how many of those and others who have tested positive but not needed hospitalisation have been fully vaccinated?

How long after being in contact and infected with this variant is one likely to manifest symptoms or show an infection with a rapid lateral flow test? If infected but not showing symptoms how soon can one pass it on?

I have a vested interest in the answers, being in the clinically highly vulnerable group and shortly hosting a small dinner party in a restaurant (my first outing for almost 2 years) to celebrate my son's 50th birthday. Having just discovered that one of the guests will be attending his Rugby Club's Christmas lunch and match earlier that day, I wonder how worried I should be, especially as I still haven't got my affairs in order.

Edit: If this is not the best board for these questions, perhaps a Mod could kindly transfer it.

zico
Lemon Quarter
Posts: 2139
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 12:12 pm
Has thanked: 1074 times
Been thanked: 1086 times

Re: Omicron variant

#463993

Postby zico » December 7th, 2021, 8:40 pm

Bouleversee wrote:Is it known how many are hospitalized with Omicron in the UK and how many of those and others who have tested positive but not needed hospitalisation have been fully vaccinated?

How long after being in contact and infected with this variant is one likely to manifest symptoms or show an infection with a rapid lateral flow test? If infected but not showing symptoms how soon can one pass it on?

I have a vested interest in the answers, being in the clinically highly vulnerable group and shortly hosting a small dinner party in a restaurant (my first outing for almost 2 years) to celebrate my son's 50th birthday. Having just discovered that one of the guests will be attending his Rugby Club's Christmas lunch and match earlier that day, I wonder how worried I should be, especially as I still haven't got my affairs in order.

Edit: If this is not the best board for these questions, perhaps a Mod could kindly transfer it.


Nobody will have been hospitalised yet, because UK infections have only just started - typically Covid (and its variants) have a week of symptoms, followed by a Stage 2 of more serious symptoms. Some early signs from South Africa that this new variant might be milder (but still very much unknown territory).

For you personally, if you're fully double-jabbed and recently had your booster, you'll currently be as well protected from any Covid variant right now as you're ever going to be. Omicron has only recently just arrived in the UK (probably a few thousand cases or less so far) so if your outing is in the next 7-10 days, the amount of Omicron variant floating about will still be a lot less than the Delta variant (though of course, the Omicron variant is clearly more transmissible).

In this pandemic age, our choices now are about balancing risk v reward. How important is attending your son's 50th to you? If you do decide to go, I'd suggest asking to be at the opposite end of the table to the "Xmas lunch" person, and trying your best to ensure there's good ventilation in the room, and having diners well spaced out. More importantly for me would be, with it being a rugby dinner, have any of the guests socialised with people from South Africa (e.g. attending the recent match) and are they all double-jabbed?

All the above is just what I'd consider if I were in your place, and only you know your medical situation and approach to risk - and also, how considerate your fellow diners might be in taking actions to reduce their risk to you. Stating the obvious, but it's your decision and only you can make it.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Omicron variant

#464006

Postby servodude » December 7th, 2021, 9:13 pm

zico wrote:
Bouleversee wrote:Is it known how many are hospitalized with Omicron in the UK and how many of those and others who have tested positive but not needed hospitalisation have been fully vaccinated?

How long after being in contact and infected with this variant is one likely to manifest symptoms or show an infection with a rapid lateral flow test? If infected but not showing symptoms how soon can one pass it on?

I have a vested interest in the answers, being in the clinically highly vulnerable group and shortly hosting a small dinner party in a restaurant (my first outing for almost 2 years) to celebrate my son's 50th birthday. Having just discovered that one of the guests will be attending his Rugby Club's Christmas lunch and match earlier that day, I wonder how worried I should be, especially as I still haven't got my affairs in order.

Edit: If this is not the best board for these questions, perhaps a Mod could kindly transfer it.


Nobody will have been hospitalised yet, because UK infections have only just started - typically Covid (and its variants) have a week of symptoms, followed by a Stage 2 of more serious symptoms. Some early signs from South Africa that this new variant might be milder (but still very much unknown territory).

For you personally, if you're fully double-jabbed and recently had your booster, you'll currently be as well protected from any Covid variant right now as you're ever going to be. Omicron has only recently just arrived in the UK (probably a few thousand cases or less so far) so if your outing is in the next 7-10 days, the amount of Omicron variant floating about will still be a lot less than the Delta variant (though of course, the Omicron variant is clearly more transmissible).

In this pandemic age, our choices now are about balancing risk v reward. How important is attending your son's 50th to you? If you do decide to go, I'd suggest asking to be at the opposite end of the table to the "Xmas lunch" person, and trying your best to ensure there's good ventilation in the room, and having diners well spaced out. More importantly for me would be, with it being a rugby dinner, have any of the guests socialised with people from South Africa (e.g. attending the recent match) and are they all double-jabbed?

All the above is just what I'd consider if I were in your place, and only you know your medical situation and approach to risk - and also, how considerate your fellow diners might be in taking actions to reduce their risk to you. Stating the obvious, but it's your decision and only you can make it.



For someone to be infectious with covid because they had been exposed earlier in the day it would need an incubation period in the region of a handful of hours; this is much less than we think covid takes.
That's not to say they could not bring it along from somewhere else (as Zico points out)
- but unless your 50th birthday parties are 48hr benders it's not likely to spread from an initial exposure a few hours earlier (there just hasn't been enough time for the virus to build up in their pipes)

- sd

Mike4
Lemon Half
Posts: 7085
Joined: November 24th, 2016, 3:29 am
Has thanked: 1637 times
Been thanked: 3794 times

Re: Omicron variant

#464017

Postby Mike4 » December 7th, 2021, 9:31 pm

servodude wrote:
For someone to be infectious with covid because they had been exposed earlier in the day it would need an incubation period in the region of a handful of hours; this is much less than we think covid takes.


Dr John Campbell was today saying the evidence suggests an incubation period of between 2 and 4 days.

servodude
Lemon Half
Posts: 8271
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 5:56 am
Has thanked: 4435 times
Been thanked: 3564 times

Re: Omicron variant

#464025

Postby servodude » December 7th, 2021, 9:48 pm

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:
For someone to be infectious with covid because they had been exposed earlier in the day it would need an incubation period in the region of a handful of hours; this is much less than we think covid takes.


Dr John Campbell was today saying the evidence suggests an incubation period of between 2 and 4 days.


I hope he said "on average" at some point?
- certainly it seems that's the current ballpark meaning symptoms show up from around 3 days after exposure (if you're going to have any)

-sd

Lootman
The full Lemon
Posts: 18681
Joined: November 4th, 2016, 3:58 pm
Has thanked: 628 times
Been thanked: 6563 times

Re: Omicron variant

#464030

Postby Lootman » December 7th, 2021, 9:53 pm

Mike4 wrote:
servodude wrote:For someone to be infectious with covid because they had been exposed earlier in the day it would need an incubation period in the region of a handful of hours; this is much less than we think covid takes.

Dr John Campbell was today saying the evidence suggests an incubation period of between 2 and 4 days.

Well this variant has been around for more than that and so far we have zero hospitalisations.

Don't cork the champagne yet but if this becomes the dominant strain then we have dodged a bullet.

XFool
The full Lemon
Posts: 12636
Joined: November 8th, 2016, 7:21 pm
Been thanked: 2608 times

Re: Omicron variant

#464037

Postby XFool » December 7th, 2021, 10:05 pm

Lootman wrote:
Mike4 wrote:Dr John Campbell was today saying the evidence suggests an incubation period of between 2 and 4 days.

Well this variant has been around for more than that and so far we have zero hospitalisations.

Don't cork the champagne yet but if this becomes the dominant strain then we have dodged a bullet.

I'll all be over by Christmas! :|


Return to “Coronavirus Discussions”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 6 guests