Omicron variant

[1nvest]

Interesting graph.

The 85% population immunity seems high. It would require something between 100% of people with 85% immunity, and 85% of people with 100% immunity.

Julian F. G. W.

My then 89 year old mother had Covid back in January, other than a positive test we'd never even had known (she contracted it whilst in hospital following a fall) as the symptoms were very mild. My mid 20's unvaccinated son contracted Covid in July, had a 'cold' like experience for a week or so.

Since April the daily figures have been of the order of out of the average 1700 people that die each day around 50 average had a positive Covid test in the prior 28 days, less than 3%. I suspect if you modified that to how many had had a 'cold' in the past month the number would likely be similar.

If everyone stays in bed for a day (lockdown) then perhaps that days number of deaths might halve (850), but the next day (no lockdown) the figure would tend to be above average (2550).

In Sweden where they've not really applied lockdowns/imprisonments, proportionately they've had fewer deaths than the UK. On that measure lockdowns have induced deaths that might otherwise have been avoided. I can only speak from personal experience where the only Covid related death I am familiar with is a early 20's girl who committed suicide largely as a consequence of lockdowns.

Much of Covid management would seem to be a consequence of political agendas (divert attention/introduce greater 'open prison' controls), and the agendas of pharmaceuticals who are on course to make $$$ trillions. The vaccines are themselves not risk free and have apparently caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals.

I've highlighted a word using bold

Think about it

Come back and explain.

Or don't...

Moderator Message:
Less than polite bit removed. - Chris

Peace
-sd

Of those that endure side effects from the vaccines often they are heart inflammation (myocarditis) related. Retorting with abuse that needs to be moderated to me suggests to otherwise ignore, so I'll only reply here the once and leave you to your own devices/preferences o/

[RockRabbit]

Much of Covid management would seem to be a consequence of political agendas (divert attention/introduce greater 'open prison' controls), and the agendas of pharmaceuticals who are on course to make $$$ trillions. The vaccines are themselves not risk free and have apparently caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals.

I've highlighted a word using bold

Think about it

Moderator Message:
Less than polite bit removed. - Chris

Peace
-sd

Of those that endure side effects from the vaccines often they are heart inflammation (myocarditis) related. Retorting with abuse that needs to be moderated to me suggests to otherwise ignore, so I'll only reply here the once and leave you to your own devices/preferences o/

The word often is factually incorrect. Firstly it is a very rare side effect and secondly you are far more likely to suffer from myocarditis from Covid itself than the vaccine.

[redsturgeon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

[RockRabbit]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

Interesting - but what exactly is Dr JC's expertise in relation to Covid given that he doesn't appear to be a medical doctor?

[redsturgeon]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

Interesting - but what exactly is Dr JC's expertise in relation to Covid given that he doesn't appear to be a medical doctor?

He is a retired A and E nurse.

But that has little bearing on the facts presented here.

John

[Hallucigenia]

We have had three positive tests returned in the past two days, all show S-gene dropout.

John

I'm curious, given that apparently only 40% of PCRs are 3-target ones, do you know what the protocol is for deciding whether something gets a 3-target PCR? Or were you sending them to a lab that did 3-target anyway?

[jfgw]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

And, importantly, none seriously ill.

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild.

Time will tell how it affects the unvaccinated.

Hopefully, infection with the Omicron variant will afford some protection against more virulent variants. It is different however and, I fear, may offer limited immunity.


Julian F. G. W.

[servodude]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

And, importantly, none seriously ill.

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild.

Time will tell how it affects the unvaccinated.

Hopefully, infection with the Omicron variant will afford some protection against more virulent variants. It is different however and, I fear, may offer limited immunity.


Julian F. G. W.

Indeed - fingers still well and truely crossed here

It does seem a surprisingly high hit rate though in a vaccinated population (or it's more than I would have expected)
I supposed that's a function of the setting on top of everything else


- sd

[Julian]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5r0AA41dgLU

Party in Oslo on Nov 28th attended by 120 people including two returners from SA.
120 people (all double vaccinated)

Mingled with outside groups later

70 of the 120 plus 50 others later tested positive for Covid.

Half tested positive for omicron

13 proven in sequencing

And, importantly, none seriously ill.

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild.

Time will tell how it affects the unvaccinated.

Hopefully, infection with the Omicron variant will afford some protection against more virulent variants. It is different however and, I fear, may offer limited immunity.


Julian F. G. W.

I would rephrase that to say that there are no indications so far that the Omicron variant is severe but we are still too early in the disease progression that we have observed so far to be sure that serious outcomes will not arise. To coin the well-worn phrase, absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence. We simply have not had enough time for enough Omicron infections to potentially advance to severe disease for us to make a call on severity. I do hold out hope that your comment will turn out to be correct but right now I think that it is too early to call this one way or the other.

- Julian

[redsturgeon]

We have had three positive tests returned in the past two days, all show S-gene dropout.

John

I'm curious, given that apparently only 40% of PCRs are 3-target ones, do you know what the protocol is for deciding whether something gets a 3-target PCR? Or were you sending them to a lab that did 3-target anyway?

We use two different providers for our PCR tests. The three positives all came from one lab who are very good at providing us with information and automatically give us the breakdown on S-gene drop out. The other lab we use for logistical reasons and they do not provide such a comprehensive breakdown for us.

We are getting three PCR machines next week and will then be able to provide our own on site testing with results in 90 minutes. Not sure if those machine will give us the s-gene info, we ordered them before omicron.

John

[jfgw]

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild.

I have just spotted my spelling mistake. I think I have been listening to too much John Campbell; I'm sure he often says "omnicron".


Julian F. G. W.

[pje16]

Oh.. so it's not a new variant then

[redsturgeon]

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild.

I have just spotted my spelling mistake. I think I have been listening to too much John Campbell; I'm sure he often says "omnicron".


Julian F. G. W.

I wouldn't be surprised...he mispronounces a fair few words. he also has some slightly left field opinions that I ignore but I find his channel a useful summary of recent events.

John

[Julian]

… The vaccines are themselves not risk free and have apparently caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals.

I know you’ve been called out on this pretty robustly but I’m going to do it as well. I’m pretty sure that you have said in the past that you have been vaccinated and if my memory is correct then I think it would be safe to assume that you are not an anti-vaxer but posting stuff like this (“caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals”) with no supporting data really does risk adding to the fetid pool of misinformation out there that is so loved and misused by the actual anti-vaxers.

To avoid being hypocritical here is something I just found re myocarditis after the Pfizer vaccine…

While cases of myocarditis have been reported in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) following mRNA Covid-19 vaccination, these rates have been lower than those reported in the retracted paper. The majority of events have occurred in male adolescents and young adults after the second dose. The side effect has a prevalence of around 12.6 cases for every million second doses administered. For males aged 12–29 years, the group with the highest rates of myocarditis, there are an estimated 39 to 47 cases for every million second doses given. Most vaccine-related myocarditis patients who receive care respond well and recover.

[ Source: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -vaccines/ ]

I’d hardly call 39 to 47 cases per million in the age group showing the highest incidence (males aged 12 to 29) and where “most … who receive care respond well and recover” to be consistent with your comment quoted above re “caused often heart related deaths”.

I don’t claim that my data source is necessarily a complete and/or the most up-to-date and accurate summary of the data on all cardiac side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines but it is at least something more than an “apparently X” statement supported by absolutely no cited source data whatsoever.

Additionally, when assessing the incidence of adverse events for a mass vaccination program one has to look at the rate of those adverse events relative to baseline expected incidence in an unvaccinated population. Purely anecdotally I feel compelled to mention that sudden unexpected death due to cardiac events is not unheard of in the relatively young, vaccine or no vaccine. I have personally known 2 people who died of totally unexpected heart attacks in their 30s and like me I suspect many people here can recall a few stories of sportsmen (I can’t think of any sportswomen as it happens) also having cardiac events. Would that Danish footballer have died had there not been a doctor right there in the support team to give CPR for instance?

- Julian

[jfgw]

...And, importantly, none seriously ill.

Indications so far are that the Omnicron variant is mild...


Julian F. G. W.

I would rephrase that to say that there are no indications so far that the Omicron variant is severe but we are still too early in the disease progression that we have observed so far to be sure that serious outcomes will not arise. To coin the well-worn phrase, absence of evidence is not necessarily evidence of absence. We simply have not had enough time for enough Omicron infections to potentially advance to severe disease for us to make a call on severity. I do hold out hope that your comment will turn out to be correct but right now I think that it is too early to call this one way or the other.

- Julian

The party was 26/11/2021 and the report (that there were no serious cases) was 8/12/2021 (12 days, not 15 days as Dr. Campbell said). I would have expected there to have been some serious cases by now out of a sample of 120.

Of course, the serious effects might be delayed, and this could still be the one that almost wipes us out, leaving Ella Bruccoleri and me as sole human survivors.


Julian F. G. W.

[Hallucigenia]

We are getting three PCR machines next week and will then be able to provide our own on site testing with results in 90 minutes. Not sure if those machine will give us the s-gene info, we ordered them before omicron.

In principle it's not a function of the machine whether it does 3 targets or just 1, they just amplify DNA. But it's possible that only a 1-target set of primers has been officially validated for a protocol using a particular machine - for obvious reasons users are not encouraged to make up their own protocols on the fly.

Anyway, whilst we're on the subject of S-gene dropout, here's the latest stats from Scotland. Oh good.
https://www.gov.scot/binaries/content/d ... -paper.pdf



People got nervous about delta because it was showing doubling times as low as 2 weeks...

[TUK020]

But your expectation isn't "news".

There is currently no news that contradicts it.

There is currently no news that contradicts the idea that Her Maj is one of the Lizard people, AFAIK.

You're confusing her with the Home Secretary

[1nvest]

… The vaccines are themselves not risk free and have apparently caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals.

I know you’ve been called out on this pretty robustly but I’m going to do it as well. I’m pretty sure that you have said in the past that you have been vaccinated and if my memory is correct then I think it would be safe to assume that you are not an anti-vaxer but posting stuff like this (“caused often heart related deaths in otherwise fit/relatively young individuals”) with no supporting data really does risk adding to the fetid pool of misinformation out there that is so loved and misused by the actual anti-vaxers.

To avoid being hypocritical here is something I just found re myocarditis after the Pfizer vaccine…

While cases of myocarditis have been reported in the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) following mRNA Covid-19 vaccination, these rates have been lower than those reported in the retracted paper. The majority of events have occurred in male adolescents and young adults after the second dose. The side effect has a prevalence of around 12.6 cases for every million second doses administered. For males aged 12–29 years, the group with the highest rates of myocarditis, there are an estimated 39 to 47 cases for every million second doses given. Most vaccine-related myocarditis patients who receive care respond well and recover.

[ Source: https://www.pharmaceutical-technology.c ... -vaccines/ ]

I’d hardly call 39 to 47 cases per million in the age group showing the highest incidence (males aged 12 to 29) and where “most … who receive care respond well and recover” to be consistent with your comment quoted above re “caused often heart related deaths”.

I don’t claim that my data source is necessarily a complete and/or the most up-to-date and accurate summary of the data on all cardiac side effects of the COVID-19 vaccines but it is at least something more than an “apparently X” statement supported by absolutely no cited source data whatsoever.

Additionally, when assessing the incidence of adverse events for a mass vaccination program one has to look at the rate of those adverse events relative to baseline expected incidence in an unvaccinated population. Purely anecdotally I feel compelled to mention that sudden unexpected death due to cardiac events is not unheard of in the relatively young, vaccine or no vaccine. I have personally known 2 people who died of totally unexpected heart attacks in their 30s and like me I suspect many people here can recall a few stories of sportsmen (I can’t think of any sportswomen as it happens) also having cardiac events. Would that Danish footballer have died had there not been a doctor right there in the support team to give CPR for instance?

- Julian

Of those that have died from vaccine related issues, many of those deaths were a consequence of cardiac based issues.

[1nvest]

On Dec. 10, the World Health Organisation told us no Omicron cases reported up to that date had resulted in death.

Seems like a desire to stop everything as there's a contagious cold going around.

[XFool]

...Must be an international conspiracy, then?