Coronavirus - General Chat - No statistics

[tikunetih]

The emerging view is that you can catch coronavirus multiple times, because it mutates rapidly, and because there's no backup reservoir" of resistance to it.

A reputable source for that notion would help, else it's speculation with little value, of the type that naturally occurs when people are operating in an environment of uncertainty.
NB I'm not claiming it is speculation, but that's why I ask for a source in order to clarify.

Looking at case mortality rates across the population as a whole (ie. not age cohorts)...

The mortality rate calculation is obviously highly dependent upon determining the correct denominator (ie. the total number of confirmed cases), else you can (drastically) overstate the mortality rate.

By a number of accounts, South Korea appears to be running the most thorough and comprehensive testing regime of anywhere in the world. Their calculated mortality rate is currently running at 0.72%, vs. the WHO's average rate of ~3.4%, which may well be explainable by South Korea's denominator being significantly larger due to their more through testing regime better capturing the reality of case numbers.

Hence, at present I attribute greater weight to South Korea's rate than that calculated in other countries, where testing regimes may be much less comprehensive such that very many cases will remain unconfirmed, skewing the calculations. I think there's a good chance this is what's currently happening, and that over time, with more widespread and thorough testing, we could see mortality rates converge into the 0.7-1% range.

Clearly, the vast bulk of these fatalities will be concentrated in the upper age cohorts (I did have a distribution but it's out of date so won't quote figures). As to the doctors and other healthcare staff succumbing, there may be a number of factors at work: due to their roles they will likely have had significant and sustained exposure so a large viral load; they may have had impaired immune systems due to working all hours trying to save other people's lives; they may have had underlying issues, diagnosed or undiagnosed; they may just have been unlucky, as some people will be.

[Watis]

That Chinese doctor who first flagged up the virus was barely out of his forties, by the look of him, but it didn't help him.

His death was rather fortunate for the Chinese authorities wasn't it.

Another doctor has spoken out, hopefully she will avoid the same fate as Doctor Li.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... uthorities

Watis

[UncleEbenezer]

That Chinese doctor who first flagged up the virus was barely out of his forties, by the look of him, but it didn't help him.

His death was rather fortunate for the Chinese authorities wasn't it.

How was that terrible publicity helpful for them? Surely if you want a conspiracy theory, it plays straight into the hands of their enemies.

Not like David Kelly or Sergei Skripal, who could doubtless have seriously embarrassed or inconvenienced their powers-that-be if they'd lived.

I wonder if this'll cause sufferers from chronic coughs or sniffles to suffer ostracism? Not to mention the upcoming hay fever season!

[servodude]

but what seems likely is that once the virus has picked off the elderly, it'll turn its attention to younger and less vulnerable people

That's not how mutation works, there's no intent or direction
- it's bad enough already without adding to the hysteria
- this thing isn't a predator, it isn't "out to get us", it's just a nasty new virus that's entered our eco-system

-sd

[bungeejumper]

That's not how mutation works, there's no intent or direction
- it's bad enough already without adding to the hysteria
- this thing isn't a predator, it isn't "out to get us", it's just a nasty new virus that's entered our eco-system

Fair point, and well taken. But it's also a strong Darwinian likelihood that a brainless, directionless organism will evolve to seek out new targets once it's killed off its first-ranking choice of hosts. No malicious intent is necessary when its own survival is on the line.

Hysteria? I'm not so sure. The scary numbers are necessarily based on extrapolation, and that's always a difficult thing when the key metrics are unknown, but if you want to bet that it'll all be over by June with barely a whimper, I'll be glad to take your money.

Now, hysteria is what we'll see when America's true infection rate hits the fan in the next few weeks. (After they've bought some testing kits, of course.)

BJ

[sg31]

This is an interesting read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

Others who have more technical knowledge than I might be able to advise if it has any validity.

[Howyoudoin]

Panic buying has finally hit North Kensington. I just popped to Tesco on Portobello Road.

No bags of rice, pasta or toilet rolls.





When I commented to the cashier about this, she said ‘Yeah we’ve had to start rationing them now.’

‘Rationing? To how many of each?’ I said.

Five was the reply.

That’s not fecking rationing! Rationing is 1 or 2.

People are idiots.


HYD

[redsturgeon]

This is an interesting read.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavi ... d3d9cd99ca

Others who have more technical knowledge than I might be able to advise if it has any validity.

Just read the article and logically it seems to make sense to me.

I have a science and peripheral healthcare background.

Hopefully the government will announce stronger measures today.

John

[Rhyd6]

We went to the supermarket today for our normal fortnightly shop and there were no shortages of anything. No empty shelves, no-one decimating the loo roll shelf, no-one stocking up on pasta, rice etc. Perhaps we're slow to realise what's happening, perhaps we're more sensible or perhaps we've still got stocks left from the last doom and gloom prediction ie if we vote Brexit we're all doomned to starve to death in a fortnight.

R6

[AleisterCrowley]

Local Sainsbury's low on toilet roll. Also wandered around Reading last night and there was no hand gel anywhere, so have raided my camping supplies bag...

[bungeejumper]

We went to the supermarket today for our normal fortnightly shop and there were no shortages of anything. No empty shelves, no-one decimating the loo roll shelf, no-one stocking up on pasta, rice etc. Perhaps we're slow to realise what's happening, perhaps we're more sensible or perhaps we've still got stocks left from the last doom and gloom prediction ie if we vote Brexit we're all doomned to starve to death in a fortnight.

I expect it's geography, R6. In your neck of the woods, and to a lesser extent in mine, people have simply got into the habit of keeping their store cupboards fairly full, because it just makes sense to do that when you don't know when the roads are going to flood, or snowdrift, or whatever. (My daughter, near Welshpool, was "flooded in" for a couple of days last week.)

Whereas city folk have smaller homes, don't drive an estate car to the shops for a fortnightly load-up, and generally need to shop more often. Added to which, households that normally dine on takeaways seven nights are week are now querying, for the first time, whether the coronavirus era might mean it's a good time to learn how to cook a meal for themselves instead?

As for the massive run on toilet paper, that's just a insurance policy in case the cooking experiments don't work out so well.

BJ (whose nearest Asda is fully stocked with everything except beer. A pity their bread is such shite.)

[Leothebear]

But it's also a strong Darwinian likelihood that a brainless, directionless organism will evolve to seek out new targets once it's killed off its first-ranking choice of hosts.

Hi BJ,

I don't think it makes choices - it's more lethal to the old and already sick but it's just as likely to infect a healthy young person.

[Howyoudoin]

We went to the supermarket today for our normal fortnightly shop and there were no shortages of anything. No empty shelves, no-one decimating the loo roll shelf, no-one stocking up on pasta, rice etc. Perhaps we're slow to realise what's happening, perhaps we're more sensible or perhaps we've still got stocks left from the last doom and gloom prediction ie if we vote Brexit we're all doomned to starve to death in a fortnight.

R6

Hi Rhyd,

I'm not normally one to panic but suspect that what happens here in London will hit you soon enough.

As I mentioned above about 'idiots' clearing the shelves of essentials, if your supermarkets are currently fully stocked, it may be an idea to just double what you would normally buy (and not five times!) just in case.

All the best,

HYD

[bungeejumper]

But it's also a strong Darwinian likelihood that a brainless, directionless organism will evolve to seek out new targets once it's killed off its first-ranking choice of hosts.

I don't think it makes choices - it's more lethal to the old and already sick but it's just as likely to infect a healthy young person.

Everything parasitic makes choices. Humans don't catch animals' diseases very often, and they don't usually catch ours. The Spanish flu killed off the young first of all, and this one kills off the old. But once the favoured host isn't around so much any more, simple random adaptation will make sure it switches to the next best thing. Not universally, of course, but the quick and successful adapters will be the ones that flourish, and that's how mutations happen. Whether it's flu or antibiotic-resistant bugs, it's a recurring patternm in nature. It wouldn't have surprised Darwin one little bit.

BJ

[AndyPandy]

Local Sainsbury's low on toilet roll. Also wandered around Reading last night and there was no hand gel anywhere, so have raided my camping supplies bag...

Went into our local Sainsbury's last night for milk and biccies. Assistant, whom I'm on conversational terms with, leant over surreptitiously and said "Do you need some toilet roll?".
I was a bit taken aback by the black market selling from an employee, however it turns out that they have plenty and keep it out of sight, drip feeding it during the day so everyone gets a fair chance of buying some....

[Howyoudoin]

Local Sainsbury's low on toilet roll. Also wandered around Reading last night and there was no hand gel anywhere, so have raided my camping supplies bag...

On the net, everyone is joking about toilet roll running out but it's not a joke when you (me) have actually run out.

How can people be so selfish that they want to buy 3 months worth and stop others having any?

I live in a Remainer stronghold so this is one thing that cannot be blamed on Brexit or Brexiteers.

Selfish bloody barstewards.

HYD

[Clariman]

I heard someone make a good point earlier today. The Southeast is wealthier than the rest of the uk and more people can afford to bulk buy. There are many others who cannot afford to do so.

C

[Howyoudoin]

I heard someone make a good point earlier today. The Southeast is wealthier than the rest of the uk and more people can afford to bulk buy. There are many others who cannot afford to do so.

C

Don't think it's a regional thing.

I would be surprised if there are many in the UK who could not afford to clear out their local Tesco of toilet rolls.

Whether it is ethical/moral to do so, when we ALL need to get through this, is another matter.

HYD

[bungeejumper]

How can people be so selfish that they want to buy 3 months worth and stop others having any?

Because you're not in their minds at all. If you asked them they'd say that they're protecting their families, which is their primary function in life. They don't really connect with the idea that their being excessively provident is the same thing as somebody else going without.

Basic Daniel Kahneman behavioural economics, of course. There's a logic to it - it's just that it's bloody annoying when you're reduced to using last week's analyst reports for such a (ahem) fundamental purpose. Hope you find some soon....

BJ

[UncleEbenezer]

Local Sainsbury's low on toilet roll. Also wandered around Reading last night and there was no hand gel anywhere, so have raided my camping supplies bag...

On the net, everyone is joking about toilet roll running out but it's not a joke when you (me) have actually run out.

How can people be so selfish that they want to buy 3 months worth and stop others having any?

I live in a Remainer stronghold so this is one thing that cannot be blamed on Brexit or Brexiteers.
HYD

It's true that this is not something you can blame on brexit or brexiteers (unless you have other evidence - which seems unlikely).

But that doesn't follow at all from your local vote. Even if you had just 1% conspirators, they could buy up supplies if your supermarkets weren't prepared for a sudden rush.