The Lemon Fool

jfgw wrote:

Arborbridge wrote:BTW, you say the November lockdown didn't do much - well it certainly brought the infection rate down

jfgw wrote:The government timed the second lockdown too early to take credit for the November dip - as far as I can see, the second lockdown had toilet-all effect on infections (although it probably had some small effect).

Checking the dates, I see I made a mistake here. However, it is difficult to see how much effect it had. The non-S- gene variant admissions started to fall around the time of the start of the lockdown or slightly after, possibly too soon to be attributed wholly to the lockdown (but data are noisy). There is a noticeable fall which could be attributed to the lockdown, although the fall continues after the lockdown ended (which I would not otherwise expect). It could be that the lockdown (with schools open) selectively suppressed the non-S- gene variants. The government themselves said that the lockdown had little effect on the new variant, however, and that is what we are dealing with now.

Julian F. G. W.

Thank you for the explanation about the R number - that seems to make sense. As regards the fall in infections around the lockdown, it seems to my eye to have had an effect that fits well with the alteration in infections. You can see it in the chart I published a week back - though admittedly this was very specifically to do with a discussion about Cornwall so maybe wasn't reflected nationwide:-



The change in curve about the black horizontal line - the duration of lockdown - is what I would expect as an effect of lockdown. It was just beginning to bite when we took the foot off the brake.
Arb.

Think we'll be having family gatherings again, as will have heard immunity through vaccinations. But will still have some restrictions, wearing masks, social distancing, numbers at mass gatherings (football matches etc) into next year. It may be wearing medical masks become a permanent feature, like in Asia, as there is no longer a stigma with walking round wearing one.

I voted "No" but flippantly I might observe that it rhymes with "don't know" which is my most accurate answer. I simply have no idea.

On the one hand it is a long way away. We have gathered an amazing amount of data on the virus, ramped up testing, approved 3 vaccines with more to come I am sure, and validated various treatments to reduce mortality. Against that backdrop I am hopeful that the time between now and Christmas will build significantly on those achievements.

On the other hand however are virus mutations, both those that are being studied now and others that might (or might not) emerge later in 2021. Were a really nasty mutation were to emerge and get a foothold in the UK, one that severely reduces the efficacy of whatever vaccines and treatments are in place at the time and is as or more transmissible as the original strain, then all bets are off.

In answering I took the broader sense of the question, what will the whole backdrop for our celebrations be like next Christmas (shops, hospitality, mask wearing etc)? On that basis I'm not sure if my "no" was an expectation or a hope. Because of my concern regarding potentially nasty mutations, and because every replication event is an opportunity for a mutation, I hope that the Government is very cautious and goes for an elimination strategy rather than a suppression strategy. I'm not saying keep lockdown going for all of 2021, clearly that would be catastrophic, but I would hope that by Christmas we haven't gone "whoopee, it's all over" and are acting like there is no lingering threat but instead are still implementing at least some low-impact (in economic and personal terms) measures.

- Julian

moorfield wrote:Thought this would be an interesting one to look back on next year, let's get some (hopefully realistic) expectations set... Poll will close in 30 days time.

So how are folk feeling about their plans for Christmas currently?

Julian wrote:
On the other hand however are virus mutations, both those that are being studied now and others that might (or might not) emerge later in 2021. Were a really nasty mutation were to emerge and get a foothold in the UK, one that severely reduces the efficacy of whatever vaccines and treatments are in place at the time and is as or more transmissible as the original strain, then all bets are off.

Prescient Julian, perhaps ?


We will still be here discussing Covid in 2025, I feel increasingly sure of (and depressed about) that. Unless the meedja nonsense is stopped and it/we are left alone to get on with it.

moorfield wrote:

moorfield wrote:Thought this would be an interesting one to look back on next year, let's get some (hopefully realistic) expectations set... Poll will close in 30 days time.

So how are folk feeling about their plans for Christmas currently?

Fine. Family will be coming round. But I won't let that spoil Christmas.

Julian wrote:
On the other hand however are virus mutations, both those that are being studied now and others that might (or might not) emerge later in 2021. Were a really nasty mutation were to emerge and get a foothold in the UK, one that severely reduces the efficacy of whatever vaccines and treatments are in place at the time and is as or more transmissible as the original strain, then all bets are off.

Prescient Julian, perhaps ?


We will still be here discussing Covid in 2025, I feel increasingly sure of (and depressed about) that. Unless the meedja nonsense is stopped and it/we are left alone to get on with it.

Fatigue has already set in. Not much longer until enough refuse to play ball any more.

absolutezero wrote:Fatigue has already set in. Not much longer until enough refuse to play ball any more.

I think so. I suspect whatever crops up no one will listen/adjust their plans now.

Christmas Hotel Break - Yes or No?

We have it already booked a while ago but are wondering if it is sensible now?

feder1 wrote:Christmas Hotel Break - Yes or No?

We have it already booked a while ago but are wondering if it is sensible now?

For me it would depend. If it was a lot of socialising/dancing/partying, then I wouldn't. If it was a nice overnight with a loved one to be treated to a nice dinner in a classy place where you knew they would take covid precautions (e.g. good ventilation and well-spaced tables) then yes I probably would.

C

Clariman wrote:

feder1 wrote:Christmas Hotel Break - Yes or No?
We have it already booked a while ago but are wondering if it is sensible now?

For me it would depend. If it was a lot of socialising/dancing/partying, then I wouldn't. If it was a nice overnight with a loved one to be treated to a nice dinner in a classy place where you knew they would take covid precautions (e.g. good ventilation and well-spaced tables) then yes I probably would.

We're intending to.
Small country house hotel.
No socialising.
Same hotel as last year, and the two years before although of course it's not quite the same is it, and at £2,000 or so it's a lot for a sub-optimal experience but hey.

Last year we or more so I, didn't like the lack of ventilation in the dining room and they were happy to seat us in a separate room - oak-panelled, with fire - where we sat next to a window and we opened the window a little and it was fine.

Would we be going if we had not had two very pleasant Christmas breaks at this hotel... probably not. It feels like an investment in keeping them in business, really.

V8

feder1 wrote:Christmas Hotel Break - Yes or No?

We have it already booked a while ago but are wondering if it is sensible now?

I'm supposed to be spending 5 nights in a posh hotel in Scotland with my Mum. We plan to go ahead if allowed. The only socialising we'll be doing is hotel meals and hopefully they will be reasonably socially distanced. Booster for me this afternoon.

We have just cancelled, incurring a 50% total cost of the holiday.

It can,t be helped but that was the penalty for cancellation within 8-14 days.

Now to go and buy some Christmas tucker!

Well here we are. One year on and we still have.

- Testing / Proof of Result.
- Working from Home.
- Masks Wearing.
- Social Distancing / Limited Social Contact.
- International Travel Restrictions (spontaneous travel all but impossible).

And it seems no plan. Is our NYE party still on, or still off? Who knows.


So the "Noes" have it I would say, by a slim majority.

Enjoy your Christmas as best you can one and all, and look out for my Christmas 2022 poll opening in a few days time ...

Have driven (along with our dad) 250 miles to be with my brother and his family for Christmas
There will be 12 of us tomorow for dinner (age range 15 months to 91 and 7months) all adults double jabbed and all bar one boosted
Wish all on her a great Christmas and all the best for 2022
Cheers !